KHOA HOC PHirONG PHAP DANH GIA TAC DONG CUA BIEN D 6 I KHI HAU DEN HE THONG CO S6 HA TANG NONG NGHIEP VA NONG THON TINH THITA THIEN HUE TS Le Xuan Quang Vien Nude, Tuai tieu va Moi trudng Tom tilt Thi[.]
Trang 1PHirONG PHAP DANH GIA TAC DONG CUA BIEN D 6 I KHI HAU DEN HE THONG CO S 6 HA TANG NONG NGHIEP VA NONG THON
TINH THITA THIEN HUE
TS Le Xuan Quang
Vien Nude, Tuai tieu va Moi trudng Tom tilt: Thira Thien Hui Id tinh thuoc vimg Bdc Trung Bp vd ndm trong vung phat trien kinh ti trpng diSm miSn Trung Hang ndm, ca sd hg tdng nong nghiep vd nong thon ciia tinh Thira Thien Hui bi thiet hgi len din hdng tram ty ddng do su tan phd ciia thien tai vd tdc dong ciia bien doi khi hdu Xdy dung phuang phap ddnh gid tdc dong ciia bien doi khi hdu (BDKH) den he thong
ca sd ha tdng nong nghiep vd Nong thon vdi BDKH cho linh Thira Thien Hue la mpt trong cac noi dung cua nhiem vu danh gid tdc dong ciia BDKH den he thong ca sd hg tdng nong nghiep va Nong thon- thuoc chuang trinh muc tieu quoc gia irng pho vdi BDKH ci/a Bo nong nghiep va Phdt trien Nong thon Ket qua nghien ciru dua ra lai canh bdo, cdc kien nghi giiip cho cac nha hooch dinh chinh sach ciia Bp, nganh vd dia phuang co cdi nhin khdch quan ve tdc dpng BDKH den linh vuc ca sa hg tdng vd chi dao thuc hien cdc chinh sdch dau tu hieu qua han
Tir khoa: Tac dpng ciia BDKH, co sd ha tang ndng nghiep va ndng thdn, Thira Thien - Hue
S u m m a i ^ : Thua Thien Hue province is located in the North Central part of Vietnam and is on the key economic development zone of the Central region Annually, natural disasters have servere damages to agriculture and rural infrastructure of Thua Thien Hue caused the loss of hundred of billion Vietnam dong Developing the methodology to assess impacts of climate change lo agricuUiire and rural infrastructure for Thua Thien Hue is one of the task of National Target Program responding to climate change - MARD action plan The research results give warning of climate change impacts to policy makers at the both central and provincial levels which provide evidence on climate change impacts to agriculture and rural infrastructure in order to formulate more effective investment policy
Kcywors: Impact of climate change, infastructure, agriculture and rural
I MO" D A U Thanh phd Hue vira chiu anh hudng cua gio
Thira Thien - Hul la tinh n i m d cue Nam viing T ^ ^ ^ " ^ Bac vira bi gid mua Tay Nam chi
Bic Trung Bd Phia Tay B i c giap vdi tinh P^""" ^'^ ""^^^ ^ ^ '^ " " ' > " ^ P^'^" ^^i" ^? Quang Tri, phia Tay Nam giap vdi Lao, phia ^""^ "^ ^'^"^ ^ ' ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ g ^"^^ ^^*^ ^ ° ' Nam giap vdi Da Nlng, la cku ndi giira BSc ' ^ ^ S ^' ^^ " ^ ° ^ ^^"^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ " ^^^"^ "^^• Nam, giira biln va true kinh t l Ddng Tay va da ' ^ ^ ' ^ ' ^ ^^' ^^ ""^^ ^ ° " S ^' l ^ *^ P^'^ ^ ^ ' timg la trung tam kinh t l chinh tri cua d i t nude ^'.^ ''''^^^ '''' ^^""^ ^^ "'^"^ ^ ^" P^'^ V^ thdi nha Nguyin ^^ chuyen len da gay ra mua Idn, gidng, Idc to
tren khu vuc nay va hinh thanh nhung tran IQ
~ , , , ~~ I Idn va lu quet lam truot Id ddt, xdi Id bd song
Nguai phan bien: TS Tran Van Dat A,Tstii,' u u- ^ • \u - u- - •«
Ngay nhgn bai- 21/11/2013 ' -^ ^^^' ^^" ^ ^ ^^^ ^^^° ^^"^ "^^P " ^ ^ ^^° Ngay thong qua phan bi?n: 06/3/2014 ^^^ ^ ^ ^""f" ^^^ ^™S vao miia khd Tuy Thira
Ngay duy?t dang: 06/5/2014 Thien Hue chiu nhieu tac ddng ciia BDKH,
Trang 2nhimg cho den nay van chua cd mot kit qua
nghien ciru nao danh gia tac ddng cua BDKH
ciing nhu de xuat ke hoach hanh ddng cho
chinh quyIn tmh trong viec ling phd vdi BDKH
ddi vdi CO sd ha ting ndng nghiep va ndng
thdn Trong bai bao nay, chung tdi se gidi thieu
phuang phap danh gia thiet hai tac ddng ciia
BDKH den he thdng co sd ha tang ndng nghiep
va ndng thdn tmh Thira Thien Hul lam co sd
cho viec xay dyng ke hoach hanh dpng ung phd
vdi BDKH ciia dia phuong
II PHU'CNG FRAP DANH GIA
2.1 Cong thuc xac dinh t/iiet hai
Tren the gidi cd nhieu phuang phap xac dinh gia
tri ton thuang do bien ddi khi hau ddi vdi ITnh
vyc CO sd ha tang nhu:
Phuong phap dy kien tac dpng: Ndi dimg chinh
cua phuong phap nay dua tren gia dinh mdi quan
he giira cac dieu kien khi hau vdi cac dieu kien
ty nhien khac trong lich sir dugc lap lai hoan
toan ho5c xay ra gan dung trong tuong lai va
tuong quan so sanh ve tdc dp xu the giira cac yeu
td trong thdi gian qua van tdn tai trong qua khir;
Phuang phap tuong ty thyc nghiem Ndi dung
ciia phuong phap nay la minh boa cac dieu kien
khi hau trong cac kjch ban deu la dieu kien
tuong lai va danh gia ve dieu kien ty nhien hay
tai nguyen thien nhien deu la tac ddng dy kien
Cac dy kien nay Uong nhieu trudng hgp chi la
ngoai suy ve phia tuong lai, cd hoac khdng kem
theo cac gia dinh tuong ty thyc nghiem
Phuang phap lugng gia tdn that la phuong phap
quy cac tdn thSt do BDKH vl gia tri, phuang
phap nay ciia ICG (Trung tam qudc te ve Dja
tai biln, Vien Dia Ky thuat Nauy) nghien ciiu
de xuat
Trong cac phuong phap tren, phuong phap
lugng gia tdn that cd uu diem han ca Kha tang
ton that do mpt hoac mgt loat cac tai bien thien
nliien cd thi tinh toan bing cdng thiic khai quat
nhu sau:
R = H I^.f, trong do:
+ R (Risk - nii ro) la kha nang tdn tbdt do tai
bien gay ra
+ H (Hazard - tai bien): la kha nang xay ra tai
bien
+ V (Vulnerability - kha nang tdn thuong):
Kha nang tai bien xay ra cd the gay tdn thuong (tdn that) den con ngudi, mdi trudng va cac ddi tugng Hen quan tdi ddi song san xuat, sinh hoat ciia con ngudi
+ E (value of vulnerable Elements - gid tri
cua cdc yeu td cd thi bi tdn thSt)
Cac yeu td c6 the bi tdn that bao gdm (nha cira, cdng trinh giao thdng, thiiy Igi, ba tang ndng thdn nhu: giao thdng ndng thdn, dudng dien, trudng trani ndng thdn, nude sach va VSMT ndng thdn, ), cac hoat dpng sinh ke, mdi trudng, va cac gia tri vd hinh khac Trong bai bao sir dung Phuang phap lugng gia tdn that de danh gia tac ddng cua BDKH den
he thdng co sd ha tang
1.1 Trinh tu ddnh gid
Budc 1: Danh gia tac ddng ciia bien ddi khi hau d thdi ky nin (1980-1999) (ling vdi cac dieu kien kinh te, xa bdi, mdi trudng thdi
ky nen);
Budc 2: Danh gia tac ddng ciia bien ddi khi hau d thdi ky hien tai (2000- 2010) ung vdi cac dieu kien kinh te, xa hpi, mdi trudng thdi
ky hien tai);
Budc 3: Danh gia tac ddng ciia bien ddi khi hau trong tuong lai (iing vdi cac kich ban bien ddi khi hau va dieu kien kinh te, xa bdi, mdi trudng trong tuong lai theo khung thdi gian danh gia);
+ Danh gia tac ddng ciia bien ddi khi hau Uong tucmg lai dugc thyc hien theo cac kjch ban bien ddi khi hau va nude bien dang khac nhau va cac kich ban phat trien kinh te xa hdi khac nhau ciia timg dia phuong;
+ Danh gia tac ddng cua bien ddi khi hau khi cd cac dieu chinh quan trpng ve chien luge, chinh sach, ke hoach, quy hoach phat trien nganh va phat trien kinh te xa hdi ciia dia phucmg;
TAP CHl KHOA HQC VA C O N G N G H E THUY LQI SO 22 - 2014 35
Trang 3+ Danh gia tac'ddng cua biln ddi khi hau cd
thi dugc thyc hien theo timg ITnh vyc ha tang
ndng nghiep va ndng thdn, theo vimg dia ly
+ Lya chpn cac diem nghien ciiu dien hinh
+ Danh gia tac ddng cua bien ddi khi hau can
cd sy tham gia cua cac ben lien quan d dia
phuang, trung uong, cac y kien chuyen gia,
cdng ddng
2.3 Trinh tucdc budc thuc hien
Budc 1: Diiu tra thu thap sd lieu
Budc 2: Danh gia tdng quan hien trang co
sd ha ting ndng nghiep va ndng thdn, hien
trang phat triln kinh te, xa hpi, dinh hudng
phat triln kinh tl xa hdi ciia viing mien
Budc 3: Lya chpn kjch ban bien ddi khi hau
ddi vdi tung viing, mien
Budc 4: Xay dyng tieu chi danh gia anh
hudng ciia bien ddi khi hau den be thdng co sd
- Budc 5: danh gia anh hudng ciia bien ddi khi hau din he thdng co sd ha ting ndng nghiep va ndng thdn
2.4 Cdc biiu hien cua biin ddi khi hau
Biln dpng ve nhiet dp Thay ddi ve lugng mua Tang cudng do va tan suat bao
Nude bien dang
2.5 Nhan dien tdc dpng
Tac ddng cua biln ddi khi hau den ha tang ndng nghiep dugc gidi ban la cac tac ddng tryc tilp Cac tac ddng gian tiep anh hudng din kinh tl, xa hgi, siic khoe cdng ddng, ndng nghiep, da dugc nghien ciiu trong cac nhiem
vy khac, do vay cac tac ddng gian tilp khdng
dl cap trong nhiem vy nay Tac ddng ciia bien ddi khi hau tryc tilp den ha tang ndng nghiep dugc nhan dien theo bang 2.1;
ha tang ndng nghiep va ndng thdn
Biing 2.1 Ciic dang tac dong cua BDKH den he thong cff so' ha tang NN&NT
Cac dang tac dong
1
2
3
4
5
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7
Lam thay ddi tien do va thdi gian thi cdng
Lam hu hdng va giam tudi tho cdng trinh
An mon cac cdng trinh ven bien
Tang mire dp pha hoai lam hu hdng cdng
trinh khi lii lyt xay ra thucmg xuyen bon,
manh ban, thdi gian ngap lau hem
Pha hiiy va lam hu hdng cdng trinh co sd
ba tang ndng nghiep khi mua bao cudng
dd Idn xay ra
Chi phi xay dung tang
Chi phi sira chiia thudng xuyen tang
Loai thien tai
Nude bien dang + + + +
+ + +
Bao, ap thap nhiet ddi + +
+
+ + +
Lu lut;
sat
Id dat + +
+
+ +
Han han + +
+ +
Nhiet
dp tang + +
+ +
2.6 Xac dinh mire dp tdc dpng
Viec danli gia mire dp tac ddng cua bien ddi khi
hau den timg viing mien dugc thuc hien theo
bang 2.2 Ket qua danli gia miic dp tac dpng ciia
BDKH den timg viing mien dugc the hien bang
diem sd, dao dpng tir 0-3, 3 la tac dpng manh
nhat; 0 la klidng tac ddng, tdng dilm tac ddng tdi
da la 15 diem Viec cho dilm dugc thyc hien theo cac y kien chuyen gia
Ket qua dy bao miic do tac ddng cua bien ddi khi hau din nam 2020 cho cac viing dugc the hien trong bang 7.12, ket qua cho thay VLing ven bien chiu miic do tac ddng Idn nhat 67,0%
Trang 4Bang 2.2 Mire dp tac dong H {%)
Vimg dia ly
1
2
3
Vung ven bien
Viing trung du
Vimg mien nui
Loai tliien tai Nuac
bien dang
2
1
0
Bao, ap thap nhiet doi
3
2
1
Lu lut;
sat
la dat
1
2
2
Han han
2
1
2
Nhiet
do
2
1
1
Tong Diem
10
7
6
Tyle
(%)
67,0 46,7 40,0 Chu thich: Cho diem 1, 2, 3 tuong iing cho
timg viing, iing vdi timg loai thien tai cy thi
tac ddng den he thdng co sd ha t4ng ndng
nghiep va ndng thdn
+ 3: tac ddng manh
2: tac ddng trung binh
+ 1: tac ddng thap
f 6 trdng: khdng tac dpng Tdng diem:
•I- Tac ddng manh 11-15 diem -I- Tac dpng trung binh 6-10 diem + Tac dpng thap_< 5 diem
2,7 Ddnh gid mire dp uu tien phdt trien he
thing Cff sd Ita tdng NN&NT
Viec danh gia mire dp uu tien cho phat trien cac
cdng trinh co sd ha tang ndng ngliiep va ndng
thdn dya theo cac quy hoach phat trien ciia cac
nganh kinh te khac nhau, cac chien luge phat
Bang 2.3 Danh gia miic do UTI tien PT he thong cong trinh CSHT theo tirng vung
trien kinh te chung cua dat nude, nganh va ciia vimg Danh gia mire dp uu tien dugc lap theo dang bang ma tran (bang 2.3); vdi vimg uu tien cao cho diem cao nhat la 5 diem; viing cho uu tien thap, diem cao nliiit la 15 diem, viec cho diem dugc thyc hien theo cac y kien chuyen gia
_^ Khu vyc
Loai
1
2
3
4
5
6
He thong cong trinh thuy loi
He thong giao thong nong thon
He thong luai dien nong thon
Cong trinh nuac sach va VSMT nong thon
Nha a Ichu dan cu nong thon
Cac cong trinh ca sa ha tang Ichac
Diem miTC do u'u tien
10
10
15
10
10
10
Chii thich: Cho diem 5,10, 15 tuong iing:
+ 5: Cao
+ 10: Trung binh
+ 15: Thap
2.8 Khd ndng thich uitg cua tirng vimg
Kha nang thich irng ddi vdi timg loai cdng
trinh co sd ha tang ndng nghiep va ndng thdn
d timg viing khac nhau; kha nang nay phu
thupc nhilu va nhan thiic ciia ngudi dan, tiem
nSng kinh tl, tap quan ciia viing dd Viec danh
gia kha nang thich iing ciia timg ^ n g dugc lap theo bang 2.4 Ket qua danh gia kha nang thich ling the bien bang bang diem, va y kien cbii quan ciia chuyen gia, ket qua cho 3 mdc diem:
5, 10, 15 diem: vdi kha nang thich ung cao 5 diem; trung binh 10 diem va thap 15 diem
TAP CHl KHOA HOC VA C O N G N G H E THUY LOl S6 22 - 2014
Trang 5Bang 2.4 Danh gia kha nang thich irng vol biln 461 khi h$u theo Imh virc
Chij thich: Cho diem 5,10, 15 tucmg tai
+ 5: Cao
+ 10: Trung binh
+ 15:Thip
1.3 Tdng hap ddnh gid de bi tdn llmang do
biin Si kitl liau din lie thong ca s& ha tang
nong nghiep vd nong thon
Lap bang tong hop danh gia phan tich da muc
tieu vai cac y^u t6 dau vao la: i: Mire do tac
dong cua biln doi khi hau den he thong ca sa
ha tSng nong nghiep va nong thon; ii: Mire do
uu tien phat triSn he thong ca sa ha tSng nong
nghiep va nong thon ciia cac vimg sinh thai;
iii; Kha nang thich tag vai bien doi Idii hau
cua viing Phan tich tong hop ca 3 y€u t6 cho k& qua danh gia tinh dl bi ton thuang do bien d6i Ithi hau cua cong trinh co sa ha tjng nong nghiep va nong thon Ket qua cho diem tir
10-25 diSm khu vuc t6n thuang thdp; vai s6 kiem tir 25-30 diem khu vuc bi tin thuang trung binh; khu vuc co s6 diSm tit 30-45 t6n thuong cao K& qua danh gia dugc lap theo theo bang 2.5, viec danh gia phu thuoc vao y kien chuyen gia la chu yeu
Bang 2.5 T6ng hop danh gia d£ bj t6n fhuffng do Bien d6i klit hau den
he th6ng cong trinh co' Sff ha t3ng nong nghiep va nong thon (chi so V)
Vung dja ly
I
1
2
3
4
5
6
11
1
2
3
4
5
6
Vung ven bien
He thong cong trinh thuy lai
He thong giao thong nong thon
He thong luoi dien nong thon
Cong trinh NS va VSMT nong thon
Nha a khu dan cu nong thon
Cac cong trinh ca so ha tang khac
Viing trung du
He thong cong trinh thiiy Igi
He thong giao thong nong thon
He thong luai dien nong thon
Cong trinh NS va VSMT nong thon
Nha a khu dan cu nong thon
Cac cong trinh co sir ha tang khac
Noi dung Tac
dong (H)
10
10
10
10
10
10
7
7
7
7
7
7
Mirc
do nu tien PT
10
10
15
10
10
10
9
9
9
9
9
9
Kha nang thich ung
5
10
15
10
10
10
5
10
15
10
10
10
T6ng(V) Diem
25
30
40
30
30
30
21
26
31
26
26
(%)
55,6 66,7 88,9 66,7 66,7 66,7
46,7
57,8 68,9 57,8 57,8
26 1 57,8
Trang 6KHOA HOC IB-l-li'UfHil-M
Viing dia ly
III
1
2
3
4
5
6
ViinE mien niii
He thdng cdng trinh thiiy loi
He thdng giao thdng ndng thdn
He thdng ludi dien ndng thdn
Cdng trinh NS va VSMT ndng thdn
Nha d khu dan cu ndng thdn
Cac cdng trinh c o sd ha tang khac
Noi dung Tac
dong (H)
6
6
6
6
6
6
Mtrc
do iru tien PT
10
9
10
9
9
9
Kha nang thich irng
5
5
5
5
5
5
T6ng(V) Diem
21
20
21
20
20
20
(%)
46,7 44,4 46,7 44,4 44,4 44,4
Chit thich: Cho diem tucmg iing cho timg vimg iing vdi timg noi dung cu the duac xac dinh
thdng qua cac danh gia d cac bang phia tren
Ket qua danh gia dugc the hien nhu sau:
+- Tir 10 - 25 diem: Kha nang de bi tdn thuong thap
+ Tir 25 - 30 diem: Kha nang de bj tdn thuang trung binh
+ Tir 30-45 diem^: Kha nang de bi tdn thuong cao
Lifu y: Viec cho diem phai dua vao y kien chuyen gia ve tam quan trong cua timg loai tac dong,
mirc dp uu tien phat trien va kha nang thich iing ciia timg viing
Diln, Huong Tra, Phii Vang, Huong Thiiy va
2.10 Ud'c lu'O'ng kinh phi gid titdnh cff sd Iia
tdng tren dia bdn
Viec udc lugng gia tri cdng trinh co sd ha tang
ndng nghiep va ndng thdn -gia tri E (ty ddng),
gia tai thdi diem danh gia (nam 2011) dugc can
cii vao viec tdng khdi lugng cdng trinh tren dia
ban, gia tri dau tu ciia nha nude va nhan dan
trong thdi gian vua qua, gia trj hao mdn Tren
CO sd do udc lugng ra gia tri cdng trinh ciia ITnh
vuc tren dia ban tinh (Gia tri E tren chi la vi du
cho viec xay dung phuong phap danli gia tac
ddng ciia BDKH din co sd ba tang NN&NT
tren dia ban tinh Thira Thien Hue)
III AP DUNG PHirOKG PHAP TfNH
THIET HAI DO BDKH DEN CO SO HA
TANG NONG NGHIEP VA NONG THON
CHO TiNH THlTA THIEN HUE
Nhu chiing ta da biit, Thira Thien Hul cd den
hon 70% dan sd sdng d ndng thdn va sinh song
bang nghi ndng va cac nghe lien quan den
ndng nghiep, phu thugc nhieu vao dieu kien tu
nhien va tai nguyen nude Trong dd, ndng
nghiep, thiiy san la nganh bj tac dgng manh me
nhdt bdi BDKH Thira Thien Hul cd dien tich
trdng lua phan Idn tap trung d viing ddng bang
th§p triing ciia cac huyen Phong Dien, Quang
Phu Lgc vdi dien tich gieo trdng khoang 56
-58 ngan ha, trong dd cd khoang 40 ngan ba dang dugc sii dung de trdng lua va cay hang nam nhu lac, ngd, rau mau Day la vimg dat thdp trung vdi cao do tir -0,5m den +3m, he thdng de bao thap, nam sat dgc theo be dam pha Tam Giang - Cau Hai va cira bien Thuan
An - Tu Hien
Theo kich ban BDKH do Bd Tai nguyen va Mdi trudng cdng bd nam 2012, trong dd cd kich ban BDKH cho Thira Thien Hul Vl nhiet do, din nam 2020 tang 0,5''C so vdi thap nien 1980-1999 Ve nude bien dang den nam
2020 dang cao 9cm va lam ngap khoang 300
ha Muc nude bien dang den cuoi the ky 21 khu vuc Trung Trung Bg (trong do cd Thira Thien - Hul) theo kich ban den nam 2050 dang len 25cm va den 70cm vao cuoi the ky Nude biln dang se tac ddng den cac cdng trinh xay dung, trong dd cd he thdng de dieu, giao thdng, cang ca, nha cira, sinh ke ngudi dan ven biln, ven sdng va bao tdn da dang sinh hgc
Du bao, tinh trang BDKH se cdn tac dgng xau trong nhieu nam tiep theo vdi mirc do cang Idn han Din nam 2020, cudng do va tan suat bao,
TAP CHi KHOA HOC VA C O N G N G H E THUY LOI 5(5 22 - 2014
Trang 7KHOA HOC T ^ E I M ! B i ^ B
lu va cac loai thien tai nhu Idc td, trugt dat, sat
Id bd sdng, bd biln tang manh gay thiet hai
hfing nam khoang 10% GDP cua tinh Tac
ddng Idn nhdt de dga su phat trien bin viing
ciia tinh la nude bien dang do BDKH Ngoai
ra, mgt so dien tich dat ndng nghiep ciing phai
chuyen muc dich sir dung sang lam nha d, cac
cdng trinh cdng cdng de phuc vu cho viec di
dan, tai djnh cu cho ngudi dan vimg bi ngap
sat Id, viing cd nguy co cao
Ap dung phuang phap tinh nhu tren, nhiem vu
da du bao thiet hai do tac dgng cua BDKH din ITnh vuc CO sd ha tdng ndng nghiep va nong thdn tren dia ban tinh Thira Thien Hue den nam
2020 udc 7296 ty dong; din nam 2030 udc khoang 8755 ty ddng, trong do ITnh vuc thuy loi
bi (chi tinh cac cdng trinh thuy Igi ndi ddng) thiet hai nang nhat chiem tdi 30% (Bang 3.1)
TT
I
1
2
3
4
5
6
n
1
2
3
4
5
6
III
1
2
3
4
5
6
Bang 3.1 Bang du- bao thiet hai do BDKH dSn cff s* HTNN va NT Thua Thien Hue
Viing, hang muc
Viing ven bien
He thong cong trinh thiiy loi
He thong giao thong nong thon
He thong luai dien nong thon
Cong trinh NS va VSMT nong thon
Nha a khu dan cu nong thon
Cac cong trinh ca so ha tang khac
Cong I
Vung trung du
He thong cong trinh thiiy lai
He thong giao thong nong thon
He thong luoi dien nong thon
Cong trinh NS va VSMT nong thon
Nha a khu dan cu nong thon
Cac cong trinh co so ha tang khac
Cong II
Viing mien mil
He thong cong trinh thiiy lai
He thong giao thong nong thon
He thong luai dien nong thon
Cong trinli NS va VSMT nong thon
Nha 6 khu dan cu nong thon
Cac cong trinh co sa ha tUng khac
Cong III
Tong cgng
Nam 2020
H
(%)
0,67 0,67 0,67 0,67 0,67 0,67
0,46 0,46 0,46 0,46 0,46 0,46
0,40 0,40 0,40 0,40 0,40 0,40
V
(%)
0,56 0,67 0,89 0,67 0,67 0,67
0,46 0,58 0,69 0,58 0,58 0,58
0,47 0.44 0,47 0,44 0,44 0,44
E (10.'d) 3.000 1.500
300
200 2.000
800 7.800 1.000 2.500 1.000
900 3.000 1.500 9.900 4.500 1.200
300
200
600
500 7.300 25.000
R (10.* d) 1.118
673
179
90
898
359 3.317
212
667
317
240
800
400 2.636
846
211
56
35
106
88 1.342 7.296
Niim 2030
H
(%)
0,67 0,67 0,67 0,67 0,67 0,67
0,46 0,46 0,46 0,46 0,46 0,46
0,40 0,40 0,40 0,40 0,40 0,40
V
(%)
0,56 0,67 0,89 0,67 0,67 0,67
0,46 0,58 0,69 0,58 0,58 0,58
0.47 0,44 0.47 0,44 0,44 0,44
E (10.'d) 3.600 1.800
360
240 2.400
960 9.360 1.200 3.000 1.200 1.080 3.600 1.800 11.880 5.400 1.440
360
240
720
600 8.760 30.000
R (10.'d) 1.341
808
215
108 1.077
431 3.980
254
800
381
288
960
480 3.163 1.015
253
68
42
127
106 1.611 8.755
IV KET LUAN VA KHUYEN NGHI
4.1 Ket luan
Theo kjch ban BDKH, nhiet do trung binh tinh
Thira Thien Hue co xu hucmg tang din theo
thai gian a tat ca cac miia, trong do thoi ky
thang Xll- II CO miic tang nho han cac miia khac trong nam Theo kich ban phat thai cao A2, vao cuoi the ky 21, nhiet do trung binh nam co kha nang tang len 3 , r c , con theo kich ban phat thai trung binh, mire tang nay la 2,5°C va theo kich ban phat thai thdp la 1,6°C
Trang 8I KHOA HOC ^ A I ; M ; M ! I : ^
Vac gi&a the ky 21, nhiet dp trung binh nam Thita Thien Hul, dac biet la cac linh vuc nhu co so
CO xu huang tang dan tir Bac xuong Nam, tir ha ting nong nghiep va nong thoa
Dong sang Tay
Thiet hai do tac dpng cua BDKH den liiih vuc co Luong mua vao mua kho a Thira Thien Hue so ha ting nong nghiep va nong thor.Thira Thien
CO sir tang giam khac nhau giira cac khu vuc HuS tit nam 1979 dSn 2010 uoc khoang 3250 ty trong tinh, tuy nhien tinh trung binh cho toan d6ng, dSn 2020 uoc khoang 7296 ty d6ng va din tinh thi luong mua miia kho co xu huang giam 2030 uoc khoang 8755 ty dong Trong do linh virc
va miia mua c6 xu huong tang vao cuoi thi ky thiiy lai bj thiet liai nang nl nhlt
21 la 7,2% (theo kich ban B2) , ^' ',- ' ,'
4.2 Khuyen nghi
Muc nuac bien dang do bien doi khi hau vao T, , r-, , T-, ,, ; ; , , , i , , _,„„ , ,, _,, ™, ,• , i unh Thua Thien Hue can xay dung ke hoach
nam 2100 cho khu vuc Thua Thien Hue , , , , , /.:° ,, : ,, , ~n -, ^~ '•-1 • 1 , 1 , hanh dong thich img va giam thieu tac dong
° vol BDKH nuac men dang tren dia ban Can
Nhihig danh gia, phan tich ban d&u cho thay: co dau tu trpng tam, trpng diem cho cac nganh BDKH da, dang va se co nhimg tac dpng nhit dinh nghe, dac biet la cac cong trinh linh vuc thuy toi nhieu Ihih vuc kinh tl- xa hpi tren dia ban tinh lai nhu de, ke, ,
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO
[1] GS.TS Dao Xuan Hpc Ke hoach thich img vai bien doi khi hau trong ITnh vuc nong nghiep
va phat trien nong thon (Tap chi Tai nguyen nuoc so 1-2009)
[2] Nhiem vu cdp Bo: "Danh gia tac dpng cOa BDKH den he thong ca so ha tang nong nghiep
va Nong thon va de xuat cac giai phap giam thieu" do TS Le Xuan Quang- Vien Khoa hpc Thuy loi Viet Nam chii nhiem thuc hien 2010-2012
[3] Vien Khi tuang Thiiy van Moi trucrng, tai lieu huang dan danh gia tac dpng ciia bien doi khi hau va xac dinh cac giai phap thich irng (2011)
[4] D6 tai d p nha nuoc: "Nghien ciiu tac dpng ciia BDKH toan cSu din cac yeu to va hien tuong khi hau cue doan a Viet Nam, kha nang du bao va giai phap chien lupe img pho", do PGS.TS Phan Van Tan truang Dai hpc Qu6c gia Ha Npi chu tri thuc hien nam 2009-2010 [5] D I tai cSp nha nuac: "Nghien ciru anh huang ciia BDKH din cac dieu kien tu nhien, tai nguyen thien nliien va dl xuSt cac giai phap chien lupc phong tranh, giam nhe va thich nghi, phuc vu phat triln bin vung kinh tl xa hpi 6 Viet Nam" do TS Nguyin Van Thing, Vien Khoa hpc Khi tuang Thuy van va Mci truong thuc hien tir 12/2007 - 11/2010
[6] Bp Tai nguyen Moi truang, B6 sung kich ban biln dii khi hau va nuac biln dang, 2012 [7] Chiln lupc phat triln kinh te xa hpi eiia Viet Nam 2011- 2020
[8] Dl tai cdp nha nuac KC08.13/06-10 "Nghien cim anh huong ciia BDKH den cac dieu kien
tu nhien, tai nguyen thien nhien va dl xudt cac giai phap chien lupc phong tranh giam nhe
va thich nghi, phuc phu phat triln kinh tl- xa hpi 6 Viet Nam", 2008-2010, do TS Nguyen TJt Thang thuc hien
[9] Cruz, Harasawa, Anokhin, N.H.Ninh Impacts, Adapttion and Vulnerability of the Intergovernmental panel on Climate changes Cambridge University Press,2007
[10] www.baothuathienIiue.vn Dien biln va tac dpng ciia BDKH den tinh hinh phat trien ciia Thira Thien Hue
TAP CHl KHOA HOC VA CONG NGHE THUY LOI SO 22 - 2014 41