58 Xa hgi hoc, so J (149) 2020 CACH THirc U*NG PHO V6l THAM HQA Tl/ NHIEN CUA NGirCl DAN MIEN TRUNG NGUYEN THANH THOY* Tdm tit Kit qud khdo sdt dfnh lugng vd dinh tinh tgi 2 xa a Thita Thien Hue vd Qu[.]
Trang 1CACH THirc U*NG PHO V6l THAM HQA Tl/ NHIEN
CUA NGirCl DAN MIEN TRUNG
N G U Y E N THANH THOY*
Tdm tit: Kit qud khdo sdt dfnh lugng vd dinh tinh tgi 2 xa a Thita Thien-Hue vd Qudng Nam cho thdy ngudi ddn da cha ddng trong viic trang bi cdc kiin thitc, thdng tin trong phdng chdng thiin tai bin cgnh mgt bgphgn khdng nhd tin tudng han vdo cdc hogt ddng tin ngu&ng Nhitng ngudi d nhdm thu nhdp thdp chiu dnh hudng mgt cdch tr^ec tiep tdi khd ndng chdng chiu trudc cdc thdm hga Trong khi sa tdn dugc coi la cdch thuc img phd true tiip caa ngudi ddn ddi vdi cdc thdm hga thien nhien thi viec thay ddi phuang thitc sdn xudt lgi Id cdch thuc ting phd gidn tiip cita hg Tuy nhien su thay ddi nay khdng dem lgi hiiu qud trong khi lgi tgo ra nhiing dnh hudng tieu c{tc tdi ddi sdng Thich nghi nhu the ndo di phu hgp vd ddm bdo cugc song cho ngudi ddn khdng chi Id vi$c cua cdc
hd ddn md cdn la nhiem vu caa cdc nhd qudn ly
Tit khda: thdm hpa, thien tai, tham hpa ty nhien, mien Trung, img phd
Nhgn bdi: 6/12/2019 Gui phdn bi?n: 28/1/2020 Duy$t ddng: 14/3/2020
1 Mddau
Thdm hpa ty nhien ludn dem lai nhiing hau qua khdn ludng Vipt Nam trung binh moi ndm hung chiu tir 6 den 7 con bao, gan chuc trdn lii xdy ra tren cac sdng ngdi, cimg vdi dd la hien tupng ban ban, xam nhap man, sat Id dat, v.v thiet hai khoang 1-1,5% GDP hang ndm (GGGI, 2016)
Mien Trung la khu vyc thudng xuyen phdi himg chiu cac dien bien bat thudng cua thien tai Sy tac dpng cua bien ddi khi hau khien cho khu vyc nay phdi ddn nhdn eac thdm hpa ty nhien ngay cang khdc liet, ldn ve quy md vd tan suat Ndm 2007, 2009, lu tren mpt
sl sdng d Da Ndng, Quang Ngai da vupt mdc lii lich sii nam 1999 vd phd vd cdc ky luc trudc dd Bao Podul ndm 2013 da gay lii lyt dien rdng tren todn mien Trung Viet Nam, phd nhilu ky luc cua lu nam 1999 (IMHEN vd UNDP, 2015)
T^ hai xa Qudng Phude (tinh Thira Thien-Hul) vd xa Binh Trieu (tinh Qudng Nam) cdc bipn tupng thien nhien bdt thudng da tac ddng manh me tdi ddi sdng ngudi ddn Con bdo kit hpp lu ndm 1985 vd 1999 d xd Qudng Phude dd gdy nen nhimg hdu qua rdt ldn,
Trang 2dac bi^t d6i vod cu dto van do Trong khi do, tai xa Binh Triju, nhung con bSo liSn tiSp cudi nam 2013, dac biSt con bao so 11 da pha huy hang tram can nha va gay ngap toan bp dien tich san xuit nong nghiSp cua nguoi dan NhOng thiSt hai njng n6 do da tac dong rSt Ion toi quan nifra va nhan thiic cua nguoi dSn trong viec chu dpng ph6ng tranh bao, lu Trong b6i ctoh kha nang d\i bdo cac hifn tupng thien nhien bit thuong ciia nude ta con nhieu han che thi viec nguoi dSn chu d^ng tim kiSm cho minh cac bi4n phap nham giam thieu tac hai tir tham hpa tu nhien se giiip cho hp giam thiSu toi da cac t4c dpng tieu cue toi doi song Sau nhieu Ito phai hiing chiu cac tham hpa cua thien nhien, nguoi dan tai 2 xa Binh TriSu va Quang Phuoc da co nhiing each thuc ting pho nhu thi nao nhim han che nhung tic dpng tieu cue cua thien tai toi doi s5ng? Thong qua viec tim hiiu each thtic ling pho voi tham hpa tu nhien cua nguoi dan hai xa Binh Trilu va Quang Phuoc qua 3 giai doan: truoc, trong va sau khi xay ra tham hpa, bai vilt nhim danh gia hi$u qua each thilc ling pho thien tai cila nguoi dan tir do gop phin dua ra nhOng gpi y chinh sich phu hpp trong b6i canh thien tai 6 Vift Nam dang ngay cang khdc li$t
Cac khai ni?m vl tham hpa hi$n nay kha da dang, trong hpc thuat duong dji, theo Quarantelli (1998) tham hpa dupc xem la kit qua cua rui ro quan ly khong hpp ly Tham hpa la mpt dpng nang cua qua trinh rui ro, la ket qua cila s\r kit hpp cac nguy hai, cac nh6m xa hpi de bj t6n thuong va tinh trang kh6ng du nang luc hoac cac bi?n ph4p dl gitoi thilu cac h|u qua tieu cue co thi xay ra Do do, UNDRR (2004) cho ring thSm hpa khong phai la nhiing sv kien khong thi d\i doan dupc va khong thi tranh kh6i ma 14 cac vin dl phat triln chua duoc giai quyet (Nguyin Thanh Thuy, 2019) Tham hpa trong nghien ciiu nay dupc hieu la nhung su co hoac tai bien lam anh huong va tae dpng nghiem trpng toi cu6c s6ng cua nhieu nguoi tren quy mo rpng va vupt qua kha nang ling pho eua cpng dong chiu tac dpng cua no Tham hpa thucmg dupc chia thanh hai loai; tham hpa tu nhien va thdm hpa do con nguoi gay ra
Theo IMHEN va UNDP (2015), thien tai la cac hiem hpa tu nhien tuong tac voi cac dieu ki^n de bi ton thuong cua xa hpi lam thay doi nghiem trpng trong chiic nang binh thuong ciia mpt cpng dong hay mpt xa hpi, din din cac anh huong bit lpi rpng khip dli voi con nguoi, v$t chat, kinh te hay moi truang, doi hoi phai ling pho khan cap dl dap ling cac nhu cau cap bach cua con nguoi va co the phai can den su ho trp tir ben ngpai de phuc hoi
Thien tai hay tham hpa ty nhien trong nghien ciiu nay duoc hieu Id ket qud ciia mdt qud trinh hoac mdt hien tugng ttf nhien gdy thiet hgi vd dnh hudng trdm trgng tdi ddi sdng vd sdn xudt, phd huy mdi trudng (Nguyen Thanh Thuy, 2019)
Khai niem ling ph6 trong nghien ciiu nay dupc su dung theo dinh nghia cua Luat phong chlng thien tai nam 2013, theo do, ilng pho voi thien tai la tong hpp cac hoat dpng nhim phong ngCra, giam nh? thien tai, ngan chan thien tai, khac phuc hau qua thien tai va thich ling voi thign tai
Nghien ciiu nay dupc thyc hien dya tren so lieu khao sat 400 dai dien hp gia
Trang 3Nam)' Bai vilt cung su dyng dii Heu dinh tinh ciia cudc nghien cuu nay bao gdm 40 cupc phdng vdn sau vd thdo luan nhdm vdi cac dli tuong: cdn bd, lanh d^o dia phuong, cac bd cdc td chuc chinb tri-xa hdi tai dia phuong
2 Qua trinh ung pho vdi thien tai cua ngirdi dan
Su khdc liet cua cdc thdm hpa ty nhien thdi gian qua eho thdy dien biln khdn ludng cua
ty nhien vd kha ndng hiru ban cua con ngudi trong viec ung phd Nhdm gidm thieu mpt cdch tdi da cdc tac ddng tieu cue cua thien tai rat can cd nhihig chiln lupc ngdn chdn vd dng phd phu hop tir nhieu phia Ben canh sy ho trp cua nha nude vd cdc td chue cpng ddng thi ngudi dan vdi tu cdch Id chu thi chiu tdc ddng chinh tu cac hien tupng thien nhien bdt diudng cdn
cd nhimg each thiic ung phd phu hpp Tim hieu qud trinh ung phd vdi thdm hpa thiSn tihien cua ngudi ddn trudc khi xdy ra thdm hpa, trong va sau khi xdy ra thdm hpa nhdm dua ra nhiing nhan dinh, ddnh gia khoa hpc vd cdch thuc ung phd vdi thien tai cua ngudi dan Tir do giup dinh hudng, tu vdn eho ngudi dan vd cac nhd hoach dinh chinh sdch each thiic img phd vdi thien tai phu hpp, han che tdi da tac dpng tieu cue tdi ddi sdng cua cpng dong
2.1 Trudc khi xdy ra thdm hpa thien tai
2.1.1 Trang bf thdng tin, nhdn thuc
Sy chu ddng cua moi cd nhan ludn ddng vai trd quan trpng trong viee gidi quyet cac vdn dl dac biet la viec ddi phd vdi cac su cd thien tai Thyc te cho thdy, khi cdc thdm hpa
ty nhien xdy den thi phdn img ddu tien hoan todn phdi dya vao ban than ngudi ddn trudc khi cd su trp giiip tir phia chinh quyen vd cac td chiic, v.v Chang ban nhu ngudi dan ddng bang sdng Cuu Long cd kinh nghipm eii sau 3 ndm lu thudng thi se cd 1 ndm lu to
Va khi thay ngan la cd tdy ra gan ngpn thi se cd lii ldn hay nude sdng thdng 5 (Nguyen Cdng Thdo, 2017) Nhung kinh nghiem nay da giup cho ngudi dan dy bao dupc dien bien bdt thudng cua thdi tiet de kip thdi dua ra nhirng bien phap phdng chdng hi^u qua, phii hpp Nghien ciiu ve Dac diem kinh te ndng thdn Viet Nam (2014) cho thdy "co che ty dua vao ban thdn" dupe coi Id co che quan trpng nhdt (89,8%) giup cdc hp ddn thich ling vdi cac cii sdc (gdm ca thien tai) Ket qua nay tuong ddng vdi ket qud cua cac vdng dieu tra trudc (nam 2012, 2010 vd 2008) (CIEM et al, 2015) Cd le bdi vay md nhu cau dupc nam bat, tiep nhdn thdng tin ve hien tupng vd cdc biSn phdp phdng chdng, thich ling vd giam nhe lien quan den cdc hien tupng cua bien ddi khi hau hay cdc thdm hpa thien tai dupc ngudi dan quan tdm Tuy nhien, each ma ngudi ddn tiep can vdi vdn de nay khdc nhau: 31% ngudi dupc hdi da tham gia dy tap hudn, hpc tap ve BDKH/phdng chdng thien tai, tim kilm ciiu nan (boat ddng 1); 26,3% tham gia thdng tin, tuyen truyen (boat ddng 2) trong khi do cd tdi 40,3% ngudi tham gia boat ddng tdn giao, tin ngudng cdu cho thdi tilt, mua mang thuan lpi (boat ddng 3) Nhu vay, mdc dii ngudi ddn da cd y thiic phdng chdng thien tai bdng viec dp dung cae tien bd khoa hpc nhung xu budng tin vdo nhiing dilu tam linh, tin ngudng dudng nhu van dupc uu tien ban
' CuOc khao sit trong khuon kh6 dl tii n^iSn ciru "Hinh vi tgp thi vi to chiic xS hOi: nghien ciru xi hpi
hpc ve thim hpa (tniimg hpp nhChig cpng dong nong thon bj thim hpa tu nhien ii mien Trung Vi^i Nam)",
Trang 4Tai dia b4n nghiSn cilu, thiSn tai ma ngucti dan phai ganh chiu trong vong 10 nam tro lai day tap trung chu ylu vao cac tran bSo/ap thip nhiet doi (94,4%); lii lut/ngap iing (66,9%) va ban han (30,6%) Dang chu y, trong s6 nhiing ngucri dan chiu thi^t hai boi cac thien tai nhu da HSt ke 0 trgn thi 2/3 chua bao gio tham dy tap huin, hpc tap hay thong tin, tuyen truyln vl biln dli khi hau/phong chdng thien tai, tim kilm cuu nan Nhung ty
le nay giam xuIng chi cpn mpt nila ddi voi nhom ngucri da tham gia cac hoat dpng t5n giao, tin nguong ciu cho thoi tilt, mua mang thujn lpi Dilu dp phan anh thyc tl khi da phai doi mat voi cac hipn tupng thien tai, ngucri dan co xu huong tim toi cac sy h6 trp vl tam Unh hon 14 cac h5 trp mang tinh ky thuat
Ben canh viec ty trang bi cho minh cac thong tin vl tinh hinh thien tai, nguoi dan cung tilp nhan thong tin mpt each gi4n tilp bing nhilu kenh khac nhau Ngucri dan 6 Hul
CO xu huong dupc tilp nhan cac thSng tin vl thien tai qua kenh chinh thing cao hon Ngupc lai o Qu4ng Nam nguoi dan co xu huong nim thong tin qua cac nguIn da dang v4 chilm ty
le cao hon: thong tin dai chiing, nguoi than, hang xom ban be v4 dac biet la mang xa hpi
Bdng 1 Nguon tiep nhan thong tin ve thiSn tai
1 Phuong tien tmyen thong dai chiing
( )
2 Chinh quy6n/doan th6 (***)
3 Ngiroi than, ba con, hQ hing (*)
4 Hang xom ngucri ciing thon
5 Ban be (*••)
6 Cdc h^i'CLB/nhom tir nguyen (*)
7 M^ing x3 hgi
8 Khac
J^i
*p<0,05, "p<0,01, "'p<0,001
Ngudn: Di lai ma si 13 2-2013.06, 2016
Kit qua cho thiy, ty le dan o Hul nhan thong tin vl thien tai ttr chinh quyen/doan thi cao hon so voi Quang Nam: 86% va 71% vol sy kh4c biet la co y nghTa thong ke (p<0,001)
Cac phuang tien truyln thflng dai chung (86,5% so vdi 97,5%, p<0,001) va nguoi than/hp hang (30% so vdi 40%i, p<0,05), Hul co ty 1? hp dan nhan thong tin vl thien tai til
nhiing ngudn nay thip hon so voi Quang Nam Dieu do dao thiy, su da dang trong cac
phuong tien tuySn truyln, thong bao se gop phin mo rpng dli tupng tiep nhan Da phan^ nguoi dan tai hai dia phucmg diu danh gia cao cac nguon thong tin nay bdi tinh chat de hiiu (84,3%), kip thdi (84,8%), chinh xac (74,4%) va dl tilp can (57,9%) DO lieu cua cupc nghien ciiu cho thay mpt thilc tl vl hanh vi ung phd vdi cac th4m hpa thien tai cua ngudi dan kh4 tuong ddng vdi cac quan diem nghien cuu da dupc chung minh Dd la ngudi dan cd xu hudng tim kilm cac hanh vi dua vao cdng ddng cung nhu hinh th4nh c4c quylt dinh tap thi dya tren muc dp tin cay cao ciia ngudi dan ddi vdi cac nha lanh dao dia
Quang Phirac (Hue)
%
86,5
86,0 30,0 39.5
2,5 1,0 0,5
200
Binh Trieu (Ouang Nam)
%
97,5
71,0 40,0 48,0 23,0
3,0 0,5
200
Chung
%
92,0
78,5 35,0 43,75 11,5 1,25 2,0 0,5
400
Trang 5Phuong Mai, 2015)
Cd thi thdy d cd 3 lira chpn thi chinh quyln dja phuang ludn la uu tien hang dau cua ngudi ddn trong viec chiu trdch nhiem phdng chdng thien tai vd tim kilm ciiu nan Ty
le nhdn thdng tin tir ngudn nay la cao nhdt so vdi cdc ngudn khac do theo ngudi dan trdch nhiem phdng chdng thien tai, tim kiem ciiu n ^ Id cua chinh quyln dia phuang cimg cac
td chirc, dodn the
Hinh I Ngirdi dan danh gia ve trach nhif m phdng chong tliiSn tai \k tim ki^m cuu nan
(theo thir t^^ iru tiSn 1,2,3)
43,8
Lira ch^n 1 Lira chpn 2 L\ra chpn 3
j •Chinh quyen "Hg gia dinh • To chiic/nh6mxh
I
Ngudn: Di tdi md so 13.2-2013.06 2016
Hinh 2 T;^ If nh^n du^c ckc ngu^n thdng tin v^ tinh hinh thiSn tai theo giiH tinh
M^ng XH
Hpi/CLB
Banb^
Hiing xom
Nguai than
Chinh quyen
TTDC
1 • 1
50 60
• Nam BNu
Nguoft: De tiit ma so 13.2-2013.06, 2016
Cd sy khac bi?t giira nam va nil trong vi?c dupc tiep nhan cac ngudn thdng tin vl tinh hinh thien tai tai hai dia ban nghien cilu v l co ban thi nhdm nam cd xu hudng tilp can tdi cac nguon thdng tin nhilu ban so vdi nhdm nO Dieu nay cd thi giai thich bdi nhimg djc tnmg va sy khac biet ve gidi nen nam gidi cd xu hudng tiep can cac nguon
Trang 6thien tai Bdi nam gidi nhilu kha nang trd thdnh ngudi tinh nguyen dl trp giiip va cim sdng an todn, dpn dep sdm, va cd nhieu hoat dpng cdng ddng, nguy hilm ban (HofBnan, 1998) Vdi nhdm nam, ngudn tigp can thdng tin vl tinh hinh thien tai tir hang xdm, ngudi than hay chmh quyln cua hp chidm ty le cao ban so vdi nhdm nir mac dii ty le khdng qua ldn (chenh lech gdn 10 diem phan tram)
2.1.2 Cdng tdc chuan bi
Khi cd thien tai xdy ra thi viec ngudi dan cd su ehudn bi la dilu rdt edn thilt, nd giup cho hp cd si; chu dpng iing phd vdi cac tinh hudng thien tai tu do ban chi tdi da cac tdc ddng tieu cue Ngudi dan tai 2 dia bdn nghien ciiu, lien tuc himg chiu cac dpt bao, lii lut trong nhiing ndm gdn day m^t each thudng xuyen (UBND xa Qudng Phude, 2016; (UBND xd Binh Trilu, 2014) do vdy ma hp ludn cd y thirc ehudn bi dl ddi mdt vdi nd Vi v|iy, miic dii ngudi dan ed thi it tham gia tap hudn, hpc tap (69%) hay thdng tin, tuyen hiiyin vl BDKH/phdng chdng thien tai, tim kilm ciiu nan (73,8%) nhung hp diu cd y thiic trong viee chuan hi dl du phdng (92,2%) Vdy ngudi dan cd su ehudn bi ra sao? Kit qua cho thdy ngudi dan da co su ehudn bi kha tdt trong viec ddi phd vdi thien tai d tai ca hai dia phuong Cdc nhu yeu pham thiet yeu phue vu cho cupc sdng da duoc ngudi ddn chuan hi tuong ddi ddy du: thuc phdm (tren 15%); nude udng (tren 13%), thilt
bi chieu sdng (tren 14%), ndng lupng (tr8n 10%), chan man qudn do (tren 12%) hay boat dpng gia cd nhd cua (tren 12%) Trong khi do, nhiing trang thiet bi cdn thiet phuc vu cho boat dpng so tan nhu thude men, phao cihi sinh hay thuyen lai chua dupe quan tdm diing mire (chua den 6%) Khdng cd su khac biet giua cdc hp gia dinh cd cac muc sdng khdc nhau vdi vipc chuan bj nhu yeu pham ddi phd vdi thien tai NghTa la dii hp thu nhap ngheo, tnmg binh hay kha thi su chuan bi la tuong ddi gidng nhau vdi ty le chenh lech khdng nhieu Tuong tu vdi trinh dp hpc van cua ngudi tra ldi Cd the thay vipc chuan bi
de ddi mdt vdi cac hien tuong thien tai duoc ngudi dan chuan bi khd tdt va dudng nhu khdng cd su chenh lech ddnh ke gi&a eac hd gia dinh cd miic sdng khdc nhau ciing nhu trinh dp hpc vdn khac nhau Tuy nhien, neu xet ve sd luong nhu yeu pham duac ngudi dan lua chpn chuan bi de iing phd vdi thien tai thi cd sir khac biet giua hai dia phuang O Quang Nam sir l\ra chpn cua ngudi dan ddng deu hon so vdi Hul Trong khi d Hue ngudi ddn cd xu hudng ehudn bi tu 6-8 mdn dd vdi dp chenh lech khd ldn (cao nhdt len tdi tren
30 dilm phdn tram) thi d Quang Nam su lira chpn nay trdi deu vdi dp chenh thap (cao nhdt la tren 20 dilm phdn tram) Su ehudn bi ciia ngudi ddn d Qudng Nam se ddng nghia vdi viec gap nhilu nguy co hon khi hp phdi ddi dien vdi thien tai trong thdi gian ddi ddc bipt khi bj chia cdt Va dilu ndy se cd tac ddng kha ldn tdi si; thilu, du cac dd dimg thyc phdm, vat dimg dl duy tri cudc sdng cua ngudi dan Ket qua nghien ciru nay cung da cho thdy, nhihig ngudi da chuan bi dd dimg du phdng cdng nhieu thi ty lp bi thieu dd khi gap phdi vdn dl chia cdt vdi ben ngoai do thien tai se cang it va ngupc lai
Hinh 3 vd Bang 2 cho thdy, ty le ngudi dan d Qudng Nam bi thieu kha nhieu dd dimg cdn thilt khi bi thien tai chia cdt da phdn dnh kha chinh xac cdng tdc chuan bi iing phd vdi thien tai cua ngudi ddn Tuy nhien, d Qudng Nam cd ve nhu ngudi dan cd xu
Trang 7SO vdi Hue: thuc phdm (18,8%), nude uong (17,9%) vd chdt ddt (21,4%) Thu nh^p cd tae
dpng vd anh hudng kha rd trong viee ehudn hi dd dung phdng trdnh thien tai ciia ngudi ddn
Hinh 3 Nhimg do dung ngirdi dSn bj tiiieu de duy tri cu$c s6ng Idii bi thien tai chia cit
60 _ ,
50 9 • Hue • Qu^ng Nam j
50 45,5 • !!;!44 6
I J n illltlJi
Thuc pham Nuoc udng Thuoc men/do Pbuong tien Chat dot Phuong ( i ^ Phao cuu ChSn
so cap cuu/v^t thap sang thong tin lien sinh/thuyen mdn/quan ao dung y te lac
Ngudn: Di tdi md sd I3.2-2013.06 2016
B^ng 2 MITC thu nhap cua cic ii9 gia dinh hi tiiieu cdc nhu yeu pham khi g3p thiSn tai
Dan vj %
Ngh^o Trung binh Trung KJia
binh kha Thuc pham
Nuac uong
Thuoc men
Thiet bi chieu sang
Chk d6i
Phuang tien thong tm hen lac
Phao ciru sinh/thuyen
Ch5n m^guiin ao _ _ ^
29,0 24,2 38,7 51,6 35,5 51,6 27,4 25,8
19,2 17,9 33,3 39,7 24,4 50,0 35,9 9,0
13,0 20,4 42,6 38,9 20,4 40,7 29,6 11,1
8,1 18,9 32,4 59,5 21,6 37,8 21,6 8,1
Ngudn: De tai ma so 13.2-2013 06 2016
Tat ca cdc dd dimg/vdt phdm md chiing tdi dua ra da phan cdc hd gia dinh d cac
nhdm thu nhap deu bi thieu khi bi gap su cd thien tai nhung d nhung miic dp khdc nhau
Theo dd nhung hd cd muc thu nhap cao (tu 15 trieu trd len) ed su ehudn hi tdt hon nen ty
le thieu cac dd nay thap hon cac nhdm khac (16% so vdi cac nhdm khdc tren dudi 30%
tdng sd) Vdi nhdm nay chi cd 37 ngudi thieu cdc loai dd diing trong khi cdc nhdm cdn lai
sd lupng ngudi tdng gdp 1,5-2 ldn ddc biet d hai nhdm thu nhdp thdp Ddc biet su khac
biet giu-a nhdm thu nhap nhdt va cao nhdt la gdn 3 ldn vdi dd diing th\rc pham (29,0% so
vdi 8,1%) va chdn man, qudn do (25,8% so vdi 8,1%) Trong khi cd su khac bipt kha rd
rang vl su ehudn bi dd dimg giira nhdm hd cd mire thu nhap thdp nhdt vd cao nhdt thi
ngupc lai d hai nhdm hd cd thu nhap trung bmh vd trung binh khac thi sir khdc biet khdng
Trang 8nhu nude uong, thude men so vdi nhdm hd cd thu nhdp trung binh 20,4% so vdi 17,9%
vd 42,6% so vdi 33,3% Cdc dl diing khdc, su ehudn bi cua nhdm b§ thu nhdp trung bmh khd lai tdt ban Kit qua nghian cihi ndy cho thdy, dudng nhu miic song cua hp gia dmh tdc dpng vd the hien su khdc biet trong vipc chuan bj do dung gi&a hai nhdm ngheo nhdt
va gidu nhdt Trong khi hai nhdm cdn lgi, su khac bipt ndy la khdng ro rang vd cho thdy ylu to miic sing khdng tac dpng nhieu den su ehudn bj ciia hai nhdm thu nhdp trung binh
vd trung binh khd
2.2 Trong vd sau khi xdy ra thien tai
Td nam 2005 din nay, cd tdi 46,3% ngudi dan tai dia bdn nghien ciiu da phdi di so tan do gap phdi thien tai Trong sl dd, cd tdi 30,4% ngudi phai so tdn 1 ldn, 21,4% ngudi
so tan 2 ldn, 27,4% ngudi phdi so tan tir 3-5 ldn vd 20,8% ngudi so tdn trSn 5 ikn Sl 1 ^
so tdn ciia ngudi ddn khi ddi mdt vdi thien tai cho thdy miic dp nguy hilm cua cdc hipn tupng thien tai xdy din M^t khdc, nd cung phan anh kha ndng phdng chdng thi^n tai cua ngudi dan So lan so tan cdng nhilu cdng cho thdy kha nang chong chju thien tai ciia ngudi ddn cdn nhieu ban chi vd ngupc lgi
Bdng 3 S6 iSn di sa tdn biii thdm h^a thien tai (heo cdc d$c diim nhSn khSu, xS hOi
Dan Vf: %
Dia ban song **•
Hu^ (Quang Phude)
Quins Nam (Binh Tri^u)
Miic song**
Nghio
Trung bhih
Trung binh khi
Khi
Gia dinh chinh sdch
C$n nghio
Nghio
Gia dinh chinh sich khic
Khdng thu$c di$n nio
Tudi
Dudi 40
40-49
Tir 60 ni6i tr4 Un
Nghi nghiep
Dich vg
Cin bO/nhSn viSn
Lim thue
Khdng lim vi^c
Uan
34,9 25,6
33,3 29,3 20,8 25,0 18,8 26,7
23,1 50,0 28,0
32,1 36,4 16,7 25,0
S6 I k di so tin
2 lin
14,0 29,3
13,0 29,3 37,5 35,0 12,5 20,0
20,5 18,9 15,4 28,0
19,8 27,3 16,7
3-5 iSn
18,6 36,6
20,4 29,2 41,7 15,0 43,7 40,0
33,3 19,2 28,0
25,5 9,1 33,3 50,0
Txtn 5 iSn
32,5 8,5
33,3 12,2
-25,0 25,0 13,3 20,8
23,1 15,4 16,0
22,6 27,2
-25,0 11,1
•p<0,OS, **p<0,01, ***p<0,OOI
Ngudn: Di tai masS 13.2-2013.06, 2016
Nhung ngu6i dan a Q u ^ g Nam phai so tan tren 5 lan tro len chi chiem 8,5% mau
Trang 9phuong thien tai xdy ra thudng xuyen hon Vl m^t ly thuylt, thu nhdp tdt hon nen miic sdng vd dilu kien sdng ciia nhung ngudi khd gid giiip ho cd khd nang tu phong chdng vd tranh thien tai tdt hon nhimg ngudi khde Thuc tl khdo sdt cho thdy, khdng cd su khdc biet gifta cac hd gia dinh ed mde sdng khdc nhau vdi sd ldn hp phdi di so tdn Dii phai di
so tan 1 lan, 2 ldn hay 3-5 Ian thi ty le trdi deu d eac nhdm miic sdng Tuy nhiSn, can luu
y tdi su khac bipt d nhiing hd so tan tren 5 ldn: ty le cao teip trung d nhdm ngheo (33,3%)
va trung binh (24,5%) Dieu dd eho thay, cdng so tan nhilu ldn thi nguy co ma cdc nhdm
cd thu nhdp thdp phai ddi mat sg cao ban so vdi nhihig nhdm thu nhdp khdc Diem dang luu y do la nhiing ngudi phdi so tan nhieu da phdn roi vao hp gia dinh ylu the; can ngheo (20,4% va 33,3%.); ngheo (43,7% vd 25%o); hp ehinh sach khac (40% va 13,3%) Vi vgy sau thien tai cac hd nay cimg se phai ddi mdt vdi rdt nhilu vdn dl nhdm ddm bdo cu0c song Khi dli mat vdi thien tai thi su khac biet ve tudi tdc khdng cd y nghia trong vipc phdi di so tan Ddi vdi nhiing ngudi dang Id cdn bd/nhdn vien thi ty le di so tan cua hp thdp hon mpt chut so vdi cac nhdm nghi khdc (ty l§ so tan tren 5 ldn la 0%), dilu ndy cd thi giai thich do hp cd the cd dieu kien sdng tdt ban nen khd ndng chiu dnh hudng cua thien tai tit hon so vdi cac nhdm nganh nghe khdc
Viec lira chpn dia dilm so tan chu ySu do chinh ban than ngudi ddn quySt dinh (73%) Theo dd, d miic dp nhe - so tdn 1 ldn, ngudi ddn cd xu hudng lua chpn d nha hdng
xdm bode nhfing nhd ciing tbdn (45,1%) hode nhd ngudi than, hp hang (31,4%i) Ci miic
dp so tdn 2 lan, lira chpn sa tan d nha hang xdm hoac nhung nhd cimg thdn thap ban so vdi ldn 1 (27,8%) trong khi sa tan nhd ngudi than, hp bang lai chiem ty le cao ban (47,2%) Trong khi dd, vdi nhiing ngudi so tan tu 3-5 ldn vd tren 5 ldn thi dia diem so tdn duoc md rpng them tai trudng hpc, UBND xa, nhd cdng ddng, nha an todn - dia diem so tdn tap trung (gan 20%) Sd lan sa tdn cang ldn ngudi dan cd xu hudng tim den cdc dja diSm so tan tdp trung nhidu hon thay vi chi chpn l\ra nhiing dia diem cd cac quan he gdn
bd, gdn gui (hp hdng, ngudi thdn hay hang xdm, ngudi ciing thdn) nhu trudc kia Dieu dd cho thdy, mdc dii vipc lira chpn dja diem sa tan la cua ngudi dan nhung dudng nhu hp c6
xu hudng tuan theo su sdp xep cua chinh quyen dia phuang Nd khd gidng vdi cdc md hinh dd dupc kiem nghiem ve ly thuyet trudc do: ngudi dan cd xu budng tim kiem cdc hdnh vi dua vao cpng ddng khi gap cac su cd ve tham hpa thien tai vd hp ciing cd s\r tin c|y cao ddi vdi lanh dgo dia phuang trong viec th\rc hipn eac quyet djnh dua ra (Nakagawa, 2004)
iTng phd vdi cdc thdm hpa thien tai, true tiep ddi mdt vdi vdn de la ngudi ddn phdi
di so tan nhung m^c khdc ciing cd nhimg thay ddi mdt cdch gidn tiep md hp phdi th\rc hipn de phu hpp vdi hoan cdnh Dudi tac ddng cua thien tai, cd 17,3% ngudi dupc hdi cd
y dinh thay ddi nghi nghiep vd da phan trong sd hp deu dang ldm trong ITnh vyc ndng nghipp Vdi nhihig ngudi khac, hp khdng l\ra chpn each tir bd cdng vipc ma Ipa chpn vipc thay dli phuong thiic sdn xudt dl phii hop vdi su bien ddi cua thien nhien Su thich img
vd lira chpn vdi each thirc nhu vgy la phii hpp trong bdi cdnh bien ddi khi hgu vd ty nhien hipn nay Dilu ndy da dupc chiing minh trong nhieu nghien ciiu ve md hinh sdng gi&a eon ngudi vd thien nhien cua ly thuylt sinh thdi hpe vdn hda vd neu con ngudi song hda
Trang 10cuu ciia Coulthard (2008) tgi mdt lang miln Nam An Dp cho thdy nhiing ngudi ngheo
bdng sir da dgng vl sinh kl, tri thiic phong phii vl mdi trudng tu nhien cd kha ndng thich
ling vdi s\r thay ddi bat thudng cita tu nhien Ngupc lai, nhdm ngudi khd gid vdi ngudn
luc tai chinh, ky thuat tdt ban vdn chuyen tam ddnh bdt cd lgi kem thich iing vdi su thay
ddi cua tvr nhien Nghien cihi nay gdp phdn khang dinh, khdng phai luc nao ngudn luc vat
chat cimg ddng vai trd quylt dinh din su thanh cdng trong viec img phd hay thich iing vdi
sy bien ddi cua ty nhien Qua do, cho thay gid trj cua tri thiic ban dia trong viec ho trp ed
nhdn ung phd vdi cdc thay ddi bit thudng ciia thien nhien (Nguyin Thanh Thiiy, 2019)
Oxfam va UN (2009) ddnh gid cao viec ngudi ndng dan Viet Nam da bilt dung kiln thirc
ma hp thu nban dupc de ddi phd vdi tham hpa: hp da dieu chinh yeu td ddu vdo cho san
xuat ndng nghiep de ddi phd vdi sy thay ddi cua nhiet dp va lupng mua
Tai dia ban nghien ciiu, ngudi dan da lya chpn each thiic sdng cimg vdi nhimg tdc
ddng cua tu nhien bdng each thay ddi miia vu canh tac (22,9%) vd thay ddi cay, con gidng
(23,1%) Mac dii ty le nay cung chua thuc sy ldn nhung nd eung cho thdy su tae dpng manh
me ciia tu nhien tdi ddi sdng san xuat cua ngudi ddn va ciing cho thay ngudi ddn cung da
chii ddng xay dung cho minh nhiing chien lupc phii hop nham thich iing vdi nhiing tieu eye
tii ty nhien dnh hudng tdi ddi sdng cua ngudi dan Tuy nhien, neu xet theo dia ban thi Hue
lai la dia phuang ma ngudi dan cd nhiing thay ddi nay ldn hon so vdi Quang Nam, dieu nay
ciing de hieu khi ma Hul la dia phuong chiu anh hudng cua thien tai ndng ne hon so vdi dia
phuong edn lai (UBND xa Quang Phude, 2016) Viec ngudi dan thay ddi mua vu canh tae
la do chinh ban than cac hd gia dinh tim hieu vd thdy cdn thiet (48,8%):
Bao ndm chang tdi thdy thay ddi phu hgp thi thay thdi, minh sdng a day cd ddi cd
kinh nghiim rdi
(Nam, 1962, ngudi dan Hue) Trong khi dd, viec thay ddi cay, con gidng thi sy tac ddng ciia chinh quyln dia
phuong la kha rd (40,3%) Tuy nhien, cdu hdi dgt ra la sy thay ddi nay tdc ddng tich eye
hay tieu cue tdi ddi sdng hd gia dinh?
Hinh 4 Nhung tac dong cua viec thay d6i hoat d9ng san xuat toi doi song hp gia dinh
! 50 45,6
' 40
30
20
36,8 38
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