Comparative Analysis of Existing Tools for Assessment of Post Earthquake Short Term Lodging Needs Procedia Engineering 161 ( 2016 ) 2217 – 2221 Available online at www sciencedirect com 1877 7058 © 20[.]
Trang 1Procedia Engineering 161 ( 2016 ) 2217 – 2221
1877-7058 © 2016 The Authors Published by Elsevier Ltd This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ ).
Peer-review under responsibility of the organizing committee of WMCAUS 2016
doi: 10.1016/j.proeng.2016.08.818
ScienceDirect
:RUOG0XOWLGLVFLSOLQDU\&LYLO(QJLQHHULQJ$UFKLWHFWXUH8UEDQ3ODQQLQJ6\PSRVLXP
:0&$86
&RPSDUDWLYH$QDO\VLVRI([LVWLQJ7RROVIRU$VVHVVPHQWRI3RVW
(DUWKTXDNH6KRUW7HUP/RGJLQJ1HHGV
$QQLEDOH9HFHUHD D:DOWHU-$PPDQQE
a Institute for Advanced Study (IUSS) of Pavia, Piazza della Vittoria, 15, Pavia, Italy b
Global Risk Forum, GRF Davos, Promenade 35 CH-7270 Davos Platz, Switzerland
$EVWUDFW
7KH DVVHVVPHQW RI VKHOWHU QHHGV DLPHG DW GLVSODFHG SRSXODWLRQ LQ WKH DIWHUPDWK RI PDMRU HDUWKTXDNH HYHQWV LV RQH WKH PDLQ FKDOOHQJHVWKDWHPHUJHQF\UHVSRQGHUVFXUUHQWO\KDYHWRIDFH7KHVWXG\SUHVHQWHGKHUHLVIRFXVHGRQDFULWLFDOUHYLHZRIFXUUHQWO\ DYDLODEOHPHWKRGRORJLHVDQGVRIWZDUHSDFNDJHVWKDWZHUHGHYHORSHGVSHFLILFDOO\WRHVWLPDWHWKHQXPEHURIGLVSODFHGSHRSOHDQG WKRVHZKRZLOOPRVWOLNHO\VHHNSXEOLFVKHOWHULQJDQGZLOOQHHGWHPSRUDU\KRXVLQJ7KHPDLQIHDWXUHVDQGVKRUWFRPLQJVRIVXFK WRROVDUHVKRZQ
7KH$XWKRUV3XEOLVKHGE\(OVHYLHU/WG
3HHUUHYLHZXQGHUUHVSRQVLELOLW\RIWKHRUJDQL]LQJFRPPLWWHHRI:0&$86
Keywords:6HLVPLFULVN6KRUWWHUPVKHOWHUQHHGV&KULVWFKXUFKHDUWKTXDNH7HPSRUDU\KRXVLQJVRIWZDUHWRROV
,QWURGXFWLRQ
)LQGLQJVIURPYDULRXVHDUWKTXDNHHYHQWVLQWKHSDVWVXJJHVWWKDWWKHGHFLVLRQWROHDYHKRPHDQGVHHNSXEOLFVKHOWHU LVLQIOXHQFHGE\WKHLPSDFWWRWKHSK\VLFDOLQIUDVWUXFWXUHEXLOWHQYLURQPHQWQHWZRUNVRIZDWHUHOHFWULFLW\JDVHWF =HODVFKLHWDODVZHOODVWKHVRFLRHFRQRPLFDQGGHPRJUDSKLFFKDUDFWHULVWLFV:ULJKWHWDOGLYLGHG IDFWRUV WKDW FRQWULEXWH WR HYDFXDWLRQ GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ LQ WZR JURXSV ± RQH UHODWHG WR WKH LPSDFW WR WKH SK\VLFDO LQIUDVWUXFWXUH DQG WKH OHYHOV RI GDPDJH FDXVHG E\ HDUWKTXDNH VKDNLQJ DQG WKH RWKHU UHODWHG WR VRFLRHFRQRPLF GHPRJUDSKLF DQG LQGLYLGXDO FKDUDFWHULVWLFV ZKLFK DUH OHVV WDQJLEOH EXW HTXDOO\ LPSRUWDQW )ROORZLQJ D WKRURXJK
E-mail address:DQQLEDOHYHFHUH#XPHVFKRROLW
© 2016 The Authors Published by Elsevier Ltd This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ ).
Peer-review under responsibility of the organizing committee of WMCAUS 2016
Trang 2OLWHUDWXUHUHYLHZRQFXUUHQWO\DYDLODEOHULVNDVVHVVPHQWWRROV*)'55VL[VRIWZDUHWRROVGHDOLQJZLWKVKHOWHU QHHGVHVWLPDWLRQZHUHLGHQWLILHG6<1(5*+$=86(5*2(4WKH0&((5PRGHO &KDQJHWDO,1$6$)(DQG5LVN6FDSH,QWKLVSDSHUDVXPPDU\GHVFULSWLRQRIHDFKVRIWZDUH WRRO LV SUHVHQWHG ZLWK D YLHZ WR LQWURGXFH LWV PDLQ IHDWXUHV $ ILQDO FRPSDULVRQ LV FDUULHG RXW WR KLJKOLJKW PDMRU SRWHQWLDOLWLHVDQGVKRUWFRPLQJV
7HPSRUDU\KRXVLQJSUHGLFWLQJWRROV
2.1 SYNER-G
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
)LJ6<1(5*6KHOWHU1HHGV,QGH[KLHUDUFKLFDOPXOWLFULWHULDIUDPHZRUN-5&
7KH6<1(5*PRGHOLVDQRSHQVRXUFHFRGHWKDWSURYLGHVLQSXWIRUD0XOWL&ULWHULD'HFLVLRQ$QDO\VLVIUDPHZRUN LQZKLFKDOORIWKHDERYHPHQWLRQHGIDFWRUVDUHZHLJKWHGDQGFRPELQHG7KHPDLQGLVDGYDQWDJHRIWKH6<1(5* IUDPHZRUN LV WKH OLPLWHG DGDSWDELOLW\ DV LW UHTXLUHV D VLJQLILFDQW DPRXQW RI WLPH WR DGDSW WKH FRGH WR VSHFLILF FKDUDFWHULVWLFV
2.2 HAZUS-MH
+$=860+LVDJHRJUDSKLFLQIRUPDWLRQV\VWHPEDVHGVRIWZDUHSODWIRUPIRUQDWXUDOKD]DUGORVVDQGULVN DVVHVVPHQWGHYHORSHGE\WKH)(0$LQWKH86,WUHSUHVHQWVFHUWDLQO\RQHRIWKHPRVWZLGHO\XVHGHDUWKTXDNHORVV HVWLPDWLRQ VRIWZDUH WRROV WKDW DUH DOVR FDSDEOH RI FDOFXODWLQJ VKRUW WHUP VKHOWHU QHHGV 7KLV LV DFFRPSOLVKHG E\ FDOFXODWLQJILUVW WKH QXPEHU RIGLVSODFHG KRXVHKROGVGXH WR ORVV RI KDELWDELOLW\ LH UHODWHG WR VWUXFWXUDO GDPDJH HVWLPDWHGXVLQJHJSXVKRYHUDQDO\VLV±3LQKRHWDO0RQWHLURHWDODQGWKHQZHLJKWLQJWKLVYDOXHZLWK RWKHUVRFLRHFRQRPLFYDULDEOHVVXFKDVLQFRPHHWKQLFLW\DJHDQGRZQHUVKLS:KLOVWFRQVLGHULQJERWKSK\VLFDODQG VRFLDOYXOQHUDELOLW\PRGHOVWKHPDLQOLPLWDWLRQRI+$=860+UHODWHVWRWKHQXPEHURIGLVSODFHGSHRSOHZKLFKLV EDVHGRQVWUXFWXUDOGDPDJHDQGVRFLRHFRQRPLFYDULDEOHVFDOLEUDWHGRQD86VRFLDOIDEULF)XUWKHUPRUHLWLVFHQVXV EDVHGDQGVKHOWHUDFFHVVLELOLW\LVLJQRUHG±GLIIHUHQWO\IURP6<1(5*VKHOWHUPRGHO&KDQJHWDO
Trang 32.3 ERGO-EQ
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
$SSURDFKLQFOXGLQJDOVRWKHQXPEHURIYDFDQWKRXVLQJXQLWVDQGQXPEHURIVWUXFWXUHVZLWKRQHGHWDFKHGGZHOOLQJ XQLW)LQDOO\WKHVRIWZDUHSURYLGHVDQHVWLPDWHRIERWKWKHSXEOLFVKHOWHUQHHGVE\DSSO\LQJ+$=86ORJLFDQGRI VKHOWHUVXSSO\UHTXLUHPHQWV
2.4 MCEER Shelter Model
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
)LJ0&((5VKHOWHUPRGHO±FRQFHSWXDOIUDPHZRUN&KDQJHWDO>@
Trang 42.5 InaSAFE
,QD6$)(ZDVGHYHORSHGZLWKLQDSURMHFWRIWKH$XVWUDOLD,QGRQHVLD)DFLOLW\IRU'LVDVWHU5HGXFWLRQ $,)'5DQG*)'55DQGLVDSOXJLQWKDWWDNHVH[SRVXUHSRSXODWLRQEXLOGLQJVDQGKD]DUGGDWD00,IURPDQ\ PRGHO,WWKHQFRXSOHVLWZLWKVLPSOHYXOQHUDELOLW\IXQFWLRQVWRFDOFXODWHRXWSXWLQWHUPVRIGLVDVWHULPSDFWWKURXJKD
*8,LQD4*,6SOXJLQIRUP7KHVRIWZDUHLQFOXGHVDWRROWRPHDVXUHVKHOWHUQHHGVDPRXQWRIULFHGULQNLQJZDWHU IDPLO\NLWVDQGWRLOHWVEDVHGRQWKHQXPEHURIGLVSODFHGSHRSOHHVWLPDWHGIURPWKHH[FHHGDQFHRIDQLPSRVHGOLPLW IRUDVSHFLILFOHYHORIGDPDJH,QWKLVVHQVHWKHVRIWZDUHLVQRWDEOHWRSURGXFHDQHVWLPDWHRQWKHQXPEHURISHRSOH LQQHHGRISXEOLFVKHOWHUWDNLQJLQWRDFFRXQWDOVRVRFLRHFRQRPLFIDFWRUV
2.6 RISKSCAPE
5LVN6FDSHLVDQLQLWLDWLYHRIWKH1HZ=HDODQG*RYHUQPHQW¶V)RXQGDWLRQIRU5HVHDUFK6FLHQFHDQG 7HFKQRORJ\ZKLFKLQGHFLGHGWRIXQGWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIDQLPSDFWDQGORVVPRGHOOLQJWRRO7KHVRIWZDUH LPSOHPHQWVDVHULHVRIIUDJLOLW\IXQFWLRQVSURYLGLQJVHYHUDOPHDVXUHVRIORVVZLWKUHVSHFWWRDSUHGHILQHGLQSXW KD]DUGDQGLQFRUUHVSRQGHQFHWRHDFKDQDO\VHGDVVHW$PRQJVXFKORVVPHDVXUHVWKHRQHRILQWHUHVWIRUVKHOWHUQHHGV FDOFXODWLRQLVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKHKXPDQGLVSODFHPHQWPHDVXUHPHQW7KLVLVDVWDWHEDVHGIUDJLOLW\PHDVXUHPHQWDQG UHSUHVHQWVWKHH[WHQWWRZKLFKKXPDQVDQGKXPDQDFWLYLWLHVDUHGLVSODFHGE\H[SRVXUHRIWKHDVVHWWRWKHKD]DUG$OO WKHPHQWLRQHGFDOFXODWLRQVDUHPDGHIRUHDFKVSDWLDOXQLWPHVKEORFNFKRVHQE\WKHXVHU,QFRQFOXVLRQ5LVN6FDSH SURYLGHVRQO\DPHDVXUHRIKXPDQGLVSODFHPHQWLQFOXGLQJWLPHQHHGHGEHIRUHUHRFFXSDWLRQUHO\LQJRQDVWDWH EDVHGIUDJLOLW\PHDVXUHPHQW
5HVXOWVDQG'LVFXVVLRQV
$FRPSDULVRQRIWKHIHDWXUHVDQGSRWHQWLDORIWKHGLIIHUHQWVRIWZDUHWRROVLVSUHVHQWHGLQ7DEOHVDQG)URPWKH REVHUYDWLRQRI7DEOHLVLWLPPHGLDWHWRQRWLFHWKDWDOOWKHDQDO\VHGPHWKRGRORJLHVLQFOXGHEXLOGLQJVWUXFWXUDO GDPDJHEXLOGLQJXVDELOLW\DVDEDVLVIRUSRSXODWLRQGLVORFDWLRQHVWLPDWHV,QSDUWLFXODUIRU,QD6$)(DQG
5LVN6FDSHWKLVLVWKHRQO\SDUDPHWHUXVHGIRUWKDWFDOFXODWLRQZKLFKLVEDVHGRQWKHH[FHHGDQFHRIDQLPSRVHG WKUHVKROGIRUDVSHFLILHGOHYHORIGDPDJHDQGDVWDWHEDVHGIUDJLOLW\PHDVXUHPHQWUHVSHFWLYHO\2QWKHRWKHUKDQG WKHRWKHUPHWKRGRORJLHVZKLFKUHSUHVHQWIRXURXWRIVL[FDQDOVRSURYLGHDQDGGLWLRQDORXWSXWVKHOWHUQHHGV HVWLPDWLRQ)RUWKLVDLPWKH\FRPELQHSK\VLFDOGDPDJHZLWKDEDVLFVHWRIVRFLDOYXOQHUDELOLW\LQGLFDWRUVDJH LQFRPHHWKQLFLW\DQGKRXVHKROGWHQXUHWRFRPHXSZLWKDPLQLPDOO\DFFXUDWHHVWLPDWHIRUGLVORFDWHGSHRSOH
7DEOH3DUDPHWHUVLQFOXGHGLQSRSXODWLRQGLVORFDWLRQDQGRUVKHOWHUQHHGVFDOFXODWLRQ
3DUDPHWHUVLQFOXGHGLQSRSXODWLRQGLVORFDWLRQDQGRU
VKHOWHUQHHGVFDOFXODWLRQ
6<1(5
*
+$=86
0+
(5*2
(4 0&((5 ,1$6$)( 5,6.6&$3(
Trang 5
7KHQWKHUHDUHILYHH[WUDYDULDEOHVZKLFKDUHXVHGLQ6<1(5*DQG0&((5VKHOWHUPRGHOGLVWDQFHWRVKHOWHU FDURZQHUVKLSKRXVLQJW\SHZHDWKHUFRQGLWLRQVDQGXWLOLW\ORVVDQGVRPHYDULDEOHVZKLFKDUHH[FOXVLYHRIVSHFLILF PHWKRGRORJLHVVHH7DEOH,QWHUPVRIRXWSXWSURGXFHG7DEOHSURYLGHVDVXPPDU\RIWKHPDLQILQGLQJV
&RQFOXVLRQV
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¶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
5HIHUHQFHV
>@&KDQJ6(3DVLRQ&7DWHEH.$KPDG5/LQNLQJ/LIHOLQH,QIUDVWUXFWXUH3HUIRUPDQFHDQG&RPPXQLW\'LVDVWHU5HVLOLHQFH0RGHOV DQG0XOWL6WDNHKROGHU3URFHVVHV8QLYHUVLW\DW%XIIDOR%XIIDOR1<7HFKQLFDO5HSRUW0&((5
>@(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ-5&,QVWLWXWHIRUWKH3URWHFWLRQDQG6HFXULW\RIWKH&LWL]HQ6<1(5*6\VWHPLF6HLVPLF9XOQHUDELOLW\DQG5LVN
$QDO\VLVIRU%XLOGLQJV/LIHOLQH1HWZRUNVDQG,QIUDVWUXFWXUHV6DIHW\*DLQKWWSZZZYFHDW6<1(5*
>@ )HGHUDO (PHUJHQF\ 0DQDJHPHQW $JHQF\ )(0$ 8QLWHG 6WDWHV *RYHUQPHQW :DVKLQJWRQ '& 86$ +$=86 PHWKRGRORJ\ KWWSZZZIHPDJRYKD]XV
>@*OREDO)DFLOLW\IRU'LVDVWHU5HGXFWLRQDQG5HFRYHU\*)'558QGHUVWDQGLQJULVN5HYLHZRI2SHQ6RXUFHDQG2SHQ$FFHVV6RIWZDUH 3DFNDJHV$YDLODEOHWR4XDQWLI\5LVNIURP1DWXUDO+D]DUGV7KH:RUOG%DQN:DVKLQJWRQ86$
>@ *16 6FLHQFH DQG WKH 1DWLRQDO ,QVWLWXWH RI :DWHU $WPRVSKHULF 5HVHDUFK 1,:$ 5LVN6FDSH 1HZ =HDODQG KWWSVULVNVFDSHQLZDFRQ]
>@,QGRQHVLDQ*RYHUQPHQW%13%$XVWUDOLDQ*RYHUQPHQW$,)'5DQGWKH:RUOG%DQN*)'55,QD6$)(3URMHFWKWWSLQDVDIHRUJ
>@0RQWHLUR50DUTXHV0$GKLNDUL*&DVDURWWL&3LQKR56SHFWUDOUHGXFWLRQIDFWRUVHYDOXDWLRQIRUVHLVPLFDVVHVVPHQWRIIUDPH EXLOGLQJV(QJLQHHULQJ6WUXFWXUHV
>@0LG$PHULFD(DUWKTXDNH&HQWUH>0$(@0LG$PHULFD(DUWKTXDNH&HQWUH6HLVPLF/RVV$VVHVVPHQW6\VWHP0$(YL]Y8QLYHUVLW\ RI,OOLQRLVDW8UEDQD&KDPSDLJQ
>@ 1DWLRQDO FHQWHU IRU VXSHUFRPSXWLQJ DSSOLFDWLRQV DQG 0LG $PHULFD (DUWKTXDNH &HQWHU (5*2(4 KWWSHUJRQFVDLOOLQRLVHGX"SDJHBLG
>@3LQKR50DUTXHV00RQWHLUR5&DVDURWWL&'HOJDGR5(YDOXDWLRQRIQRQOLQHDUVWDWLFSURFHGXUHVLQWKHDVVHVVPHQWRIEXLOGLQJ IUDPHV(DUWKTXDNH6SHFWUD
>@ :ULJKW & -RKQVWRQ '0 3RVWHDUWKTXDNH VKHOWHULQJ QHHGV KRZ ORVV RI VWUXFWXUHV DQG VHUYLFHV DIIHFWV GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ IRU HYDFXDWLRQ1=6((&RQIHUHQFH:HOOLQJWRQ1=
>@=HODVFKL&0RQWHLUR53LQKR53HUIRUPDQFHEDVHGHDUWKTXDNHHQJLQHHULQJDSSURDFKDSSOLHGWREULGJHVLQDURDGQHWZRUNWK (&&20$67KHPDWLF&RQIHUHQFHRQ&RPSXWDWLRQDO0HWKRGVLQ6WUXFWXUDO'\QDPLFVDQG(DUWKTXDNH(QJLQHHULQJ&UHWH,VODQG*5
... DQGWKH\DUHSURGXFHGDWGZHOOLQJXQLWV+RZHYHULWQHHGVWREHWUDQVODWHGE\WKHXVHULQDQRSHUDWLYHWRROW\SLFDOO\ XVLQJDFDOFXOXVVSUHDGVKHHW+$=860+DQG(5*2(4DUHSUHVHQWHGLQWKHIRUPRIFORVHGVRIWZDUHSDFNDJHVDQG XWLOL]HWKH+$=86ORJLFIRUVKHOWHUQHHGVFDOFXODWLRQ(5*2(4KDVGLIIHUHQWDOJRULWKPVIRUFRPSXWLQJGLVSODFHG... HVWLPDWLRQ VRIWZDUH WRROV WKDW DUH DOVR FDSDEOH RI FDOFXODWLQJ VKRUW WHUP VKHOWHU QHHGV 7KLV LV DFFRPSOLVKHG E\ FDOFXODWLQJILUVW WKH QXPEHU RIGLVSODFHG KRXVHKROGVGXH...
7DEOH3DUDPHWHUVLQFOXGHGLQSRSXODWLRQGLVORFDWLRQDQGRUVKHOWHUQHHGVFDOFXODWLRQ
3DUDPHWHUVLQFOXGHGLQSRSXODWLRQGLVORFDWLRQDQGRU
VKHOWHUQHHGVFDOFXODWLRQ
6<1(5