Dir BAD NHU cAu Ddl NGU GlAO VIEN TRUNG HDC PHO THDNG CAC TJNH DONG B A N G SONG CUU LONG O TS P H A M MINH G I A N NGUYEN CHI G6V D l/ bdo (DB) duqc hllu Id nhOng kiln gldl cd cfin eu khoo hqc v l cd[.]
Trang 1Dir BAD NHU cAu Ddl NGU GlAO VIEN TRUNG HDC PHO THDNG
O TS P H A M M I N H G I A N - N G U Y E N C H I G6V
Dl/ bdo (DB) duqc hllu Id nhOng kiln gldl cd
cfin eu khoo hqc v l cdc trqng thdi khd dT
Clio d^l hrqng DB trong hremg lol, v l cde
con dudng khde nhou, thdi hqn khdc nhau d l dqt
hSi cde trqng thdi tuong lol dd Di/ bdo gido di/c
(DBGD) Id xdc djnh h-qng thdi tuong lol cua hf
thdng gido dye vdl m f I xdc sud't ndo dd DB nhu
cdu gido vidn (GV) Id mft b f phfn quan trqng
Clio bdl ksdn DBGD Nhijng hifn tuqng thCra, thilu,
l^dng ddng b f G V s3 duqc hqn e h l nlu ede edp
qudn If DB tucmg ddl chfnh xdc nhu edu v l sd
luqng d f i ngii, loql hlnh G V bq mdn vd k l
hoqch ddp ung cua cdc trudng dqi hqc
Trong nhllu nfim qua, ddng bdng sdng Ci>u
Long (DBSCL) thieu quy hoqch td'ng t h l eho vifc
ddo tqo, bdi dudng d f i ngO gido vidn (DNGV)
trung hqe phd thdng (THPT) dan d i n Hnh trqng
D N G V vija thua, vua thilu, vuo y i u , vuo khong
ddng bq v l co cd'u Do d d , cdn cd nghidn edu
DB trdn cde phuong d i f n : ddo Iqo, bdl dudng,
su dyng; so luqng, chd't luqng vd co cd'u D N G V
D l DB q u y m d D N G V THPT ede tinh DBSCL
edn DB duge ddn sd', quy md gla tdng hgc sinh
(HS) THPT Ddy Id 2 cfin eu quon trqng d l phdt
h'lin quy md D N G V THPT cdc tinh DBSCL Ngodl
ra, phdl cfin cu vdo cdc thdng sfi': djnh muc sd
H S / l d p ; djnh mijc sd' G V / l d p , co cdu mdn hqe,
loql htnh, ydu cdu ndng eoo cuo ti>ng gial
doqn, tf If G V gldm do nghl huu, chuyin cdng
tdc, sue khde, tinh gldn bidn e h l Thdng tu
lidn tjeh sd 35/200d/TTLT-BGD-DT-BNV ngdy
2 3 / 8 / 2 0 0 d cua Bq GD-DT vd Bf Nql vy quy
djnh mue bidn e h l vlen ehue d cdc eo sd gido
dye phd* thdng edng ldp Id tdl da khdng qud
45 H S / l d p ; mol Idp duqc bd trf bidn e h l khdng
qud 2 , 2 5 G V { 1 )
1 DB stf luvjmg HS THPT du^c d l ra trong
cdc djnh hu6ng phdt Min gIdo dye
Trong nhihig nfim gdn ddy, i6 HS phd thdng
ed nude dd bdt ddu gldm nhung tf If HS phi thdng nhf p hqe vSn tdng ldn khdng ngung Tfnh
d i n ndm 2 0 0 7 , edp tllu hqc (TH) dqt 98% (so vdl
96% nfim 2004), cd'p hnjng hqc co sd (THCS):
90% (so vdl d5% nfim 2 0 0 3 ) , cdp THPT: 50% (so vdi 38% nfim 2000) (2)
Theo Quylt d|nh 2 0 / 2 0 0 d / Q D - T T g ngdy 2 0 /
0 1 / 2 0 0 d cOo Tho tudng Chfnh phu, ehl tidu cy
t h l v l phdl trlln GD-DT vd dqy nghl cOo DBSCL
d i n nfim 2 0 1 0 ddl vdl gido dye THCS vd THPT
Id: « Tdt ed cdc Hnh vd thdnh phi thudc DBSCL dgl
chudn phd cdp THCS; ndng H1$ THCS dl hgc ^ng d0 tudt ldn to 87-90%; H1$ HS trong d^ tudi vao THPT dgt 50% trd len'[3)
Theo phuong hudng phdt trlln GD-DT vd dgy nghl vung DBSCL glol doqn 2 0 1 1 - 2 0 2 0 (4), DBSCL pha'n dfi'u d i n nfim 2 0 1 5 cdc cht sive GD-DT vd dqy nghl dqt mue binh qudn chung cua cd nude; tlln ldi bdt kjp mqt sdvung, khu vyc
cd trinh dq phdt W i n cao vdo nfim 2020 Cy the, gido dye phd thdng, nfim 2015: K If HS trong df tudl den h'udng dqt 99% d TH, 85% d THCS vd 55% d THPT Nfim 2020: huy d f n g HS Irong df ludl TH d i n Idp trdn 99%, THCS 90% vd THFT dO% Trvdng dqt chudn qudc gla 6 T H 40%, THCS 25% vd THPT Id 15% Chiln luqc phdt h-len gido dye 2011 -2020: d i n nfim 2020, «80% thonh niin Vift Nam h-ong d f tudi dqt Wnh dq hqc vdn THPT
vd tuong duang"
2 DB sd luqng HS THPT 6 DBSCL ude Knh
theo H If huy d f n g d d tudi HS THPT Cfin cu vdo kit qud dieu tra ddn sd ndm
2 0 0 9 , tdng ddn sd cuo cdc ttnh DBSCL Id 17.178.871 ngudi, trong dd, cd cde nhdm lull
cy t h l (xem bdng 1)
'TnMiclfibfcMulUp
Tap chi filao iluc so 2 9 8 gu a • n/aoiji
Trang 2Bdng I Ddn so//leo ca cd'u nhdm (uo/ cdc llnh DSSCL Bdng 3, DB sd'Idp, soCV THPT
HMm ludi
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
T f l n a s f i l n o i r t ' l l
278.599
1.098.206
1.396.054
966.413
Tu4i
0 1-4 10-14 18-19
(Nguon: Nlin gldm ihd'ng ki 2009)
Di^a trdn ket qua di^u tra dan so, dong thol
thong quo Nghj quyet dql h§i D6ng c6c c6'p,
mSl finh dua ra H 1^ huy d6ng HS THPT trong ii)
tuoi khac nhau Cy the, fi 1^ huy d^ng ciJa D6ng
Thap la 5 5 * nfim 2 0 1 5 (nflm 2 0 1 0 la 46%), Hau
Glang Id 67% (nam 2 0 1 5 ) , 70% (2020); Tlin
Glang Id 55% nam 2 0 1 5 (nam 2 0 1 0 la 50%|;
VTnh Long: 70% (30% c6n I9I hpc nghl) (nam
2 0 1 5 ) ; Tra Vinh: 6 5 % (nam 2015); C6 M a u :
61,14% (nam 2015), 73,38% (ndm 2020)
Can Cl> vdo thi/c te vl$c huy dong HS trong
da tuS'l THPT cua cdc tinh DBSCL Irong thol glan
qua cGng nhu can cu vdo kg' hoqch DB cuo cdc
finh; chung t6i nhan tha'y, fi l§ huy dqng HS
THPT cua cdc finh DBSCL c6 kha nang phO hqp
d^n nam 2 0 1 5 Id tO 5 5 % dl'n 60% vd ndm 2 0 2 0
Id tu 6 0 % dS'n 65% N h u vqy, s6' HS THPT cOo
cdc finh DBSCL trong thdi glon tol khd ndng
tuong ung se Id: ti> 4 6 1 3 7 5 dS'n 5 0 3 2 9 9 (nam
2015) vd to 5 0 7 8 1 1 d^n 5 5 0 1 2 8 (ndm 2020)
(xem bdng 2)
Bdng2 DB so HS THPT DBSCL iheo lili
dp tuoi den truung
Nam 2015
D a n s i
e^ t u i i
15-17
836.832
huy a^ng
55
60
S4HS
T H P T
461.357
Nam 2020
D a n s 6
15-17
•
T i i e huy aOng
60
S6HS
THPT 507.811
Nam 2015
T i t * huy
m
55
eo
S A H S
THPT 461.357
S i ldn THPT 10,252
S6GV THPT
23 067 25.164
Nam 2020 Tiia huy dOng
m
60
S 6 H S
THPT
507 611
550 126
SAl6p THPT 11.284
12 225
S6GV T>1PT
25 369 27,506
Nhu vdy, theo kit qud DB nhu tren, sd GV THPT cdc tinh DBSCL cd khd ndng d i n nfim 2015
se vdo khodng h> 23.0d7 den 25.1d4 vd d i n nfim 2 0 2 0 , sd G V s§ tu 25.389 d i n 27.50d
DB Id mdl qud trinh tiem edn vert hi^n thyc, cdn duqc kllm tra, ddl chllu vd dllu chinh theo tOng thdi kl, lung blln dqng cua kinh t l - xd hdl Kit qud DB hen ddy cd t h l Id nhung thom khdo budc ddu eho cde nhd qudn li Irong vlec xdy dyng cdc quy hoqch, k l hoqch phdt triin DNGV THPT cde tinh DBSCL cho gioi doqn 2015 vd 2020 Thilt nghl, DB DNGV cdn duqc tlep tye nghien cuu vd
DB mqt cdch cg i h l cho h/ng bq mdn Q
Quy djnh hl|n hdnh cOa Diiu li trudng trung
hgc, sd HS THPT khdng qud 4 5 H S / Idp vd theo
thyc l l eua cdc Knh DBSCL trong thdi glon quo,
binh qudn khodng 4 2 , 4 3 HS/ldp Nhu vdy, xdt
theo xu hudng ddu tu md rdng Irudng Idp THPT
trong thdi gian tdl, so HS/ldp, cung cd khd nfing
binh qudn se td 4 0 HS/ldp Ddng thdi, sd Idp
tuong dng vdl so HS/ldp eung se khde nhou
Nhung khi DB, tinh theo dinh mue 4 5 H%/\dp
Tuong ung vdl K lg 55% (hodc dO%) nfim 2015
vd d0% (hodc d5%) nfim 2 0 2 0 , sd Idp, sd G V
THPT cdn ddp ihig h-ong hrang lal sS Id [bdr^ 3):
Tap chi filao due s6 2 9 8 (ki a • i i / » i a i
(1) BO GD-DT \k BO NOi vy ThOng tir lifin tjeh stf 35/2006/TTLT-BGD-DT-BNV ngky 23/8/2006
vi vi$c huiJng d3n djnh miic bi£n ch^ vifin chiic d cSc
ca sd giio due ph6 thOng cOng lap
(2) Tuifi tri online, ngky 29/11/2007
(3) Quy^t djnh 20/2006/QD-TTg ng&y 20/01/2006 cua
Thu tudng Chinh phii vi phit triin GD-DT vit d^y ngh6
viing ddng b^ng sOng Cmi Long din nam 2020 (4) Thu tiri5Tig Chfnh phii Quylt djnh stf 711/QD-TTg ngiy 15/6/2012 phfi duyOt "Chiln luqc phSt tri^n giio dgc 2011-2020"
Tai li^u tliam khdo
1 Bo GDDT Phuang hiring phit triin giio dye -die tao vi day ngh6 vOng dOng b^ng sOng Ciru Long giaido^n 2011-2020
2 Hi Thl NgO (chi bifin) Dy bio giio dye: Vtfn d£
vi xu hintng Vi^n Khoa hgc gido d(tc Hi NOi, 1989
3 T6ng cvc thO'ng kfi Ni£n giim thtfng kfi 2009
SUMMARY
Forecast is a process which needs updating, com-plementing and adjusting to fit the practical circumtances Basing on the orientations of develop-ing education in the fi/lekong Delta provinces and the norms stipulated to general education, the au-ttvDr conducted surveys to forecastttie teaching staffs Inthet^/iekongD^a provinces by ttie years 2015 and
2020 the results of the forecast will tie useful for the management entitles to refer in terms of building hu-man resources, estabtehfrigi pfcins fcw dev^plng edu-cation ofttietiA^ong t^elta re0an
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