climate change impact on agriculture and costs of adaptation pptx

Climste-change induced yield effects by crop nd management system, change from ylld wich 2000 clmate to yield with 2050 cate World food prices USBimetic ton a 2000 and 2050 and percent c

Climate Change

Impact on Agriculture and Costs of Adaptation

Gerald C.Nelson Mark Rosogrant woo Koo, Richard Roberson Timosy Suse, Tings Zhu Cauda Ringler Sa Mang, Amanda Plzzo Miri Ba, Marika Maalhaes Rowena Valmont Santos, Mandy wig and David Lee

International Food Policy Research Insteure Washington, D.C

Updated October 2009

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‘Acknowledgments

Executive Summary Climace-Change Scenarios Impacts of Climate Change Cont of Adaptation Conclusion

Noes

References

Climste-change induced yield effects by crop nd management system, change from ylld wich 2000 clmate to yield with 2050 cate World food prices (USBimetic ton) a 2000 and 2050 and percent changes fr selected crops and lvestock products

Climate-hange eflcts on crop praduction, no CÓ fertiation

Pt eabitaconsutipion (ke per year) of caro ind meats with and without slimate change (NCAR and CSIRO)

Daly pr apis calorie avaihbiley with and withous climate change

“otal number of malnourished children in 2000 a 2050 (milion children under 5 years of ag)

Developing-country agriutural product investments Dally calorie per capa consumption with adaptive Investments (keslipersontaay)

(Chil malnutrtion counts with adaptive investment (milion children) Adiilemal anal investment expenditure nended to counteract the effets af climate change on nutrition (ion 2000 US$)

| Change in average maximum comperacire (°C), 2000-2050

2 Change in precipitation (mm), 2000-2050

2 World prices, Livestock products,

4 World prices, Malor gros

5 Dally per capita calorie aalbilty with and without climate change

6 Child malnurtion fects, Asa and Sub-Saharan Aiea

1 Child malnutrition face, Eee Ai and the Paci, Europe and

{Central Asi, Latin America andthe Caribbean, and Mie East and North Afric

the authors would ike to seknowledge the francslzupport sƒ the An Derdopmmont Bmk snd te Wod#

Bank (under the Economics of Adaptation to Cliire Cha S4) and the many efl comments nd suggestions from reviewers of earber verslans Any erarsremin the respon ofthe authors

Financial Contributors and Partners

IFPRI’ research capaclystrengthening and communications work i made possible by ks financial contributors

and partners IFPRI rece ks principal nding rom goversment, priate foundations and interaationl and

Fepional organizations mos of which are member ofthe Consuative Group on internation] Arial Re

earch (CGIAR) IFPRI grateful acknowledge che generous unrestrieed funding from Austral, Canad, Chins

Denmark Finland, France, Germany, Ida, Ireland, kay apa, the Netherlands, Norway, South Ais, Sweden,

‘Swazerland, the United Kingdom, the United States andthe World Bank

“The Challenge

he unimpeded growth of greenhouses emisions

Ie raaing the earth emperaire The consequences elude meting gaciers more precpittion.more and,

tore extreme weather events and hing reason

‘The accelerating pace of climate change combined with

iobal population and income growth tveatens food

Security everywhere [Agriculture i extremely vlnerablet0 climate

change Higher emmperauresevently reduce yieldt

‘of desirable crops while encouraging weed and pest

proliferation Changes in preiptation pacers n=

ease the Ikellhood of short-run erp flures and

Jang:run production declines, Although there willbe

ins in some crops in some regions ofthe word the

“van impacts of elma change on agrcucure are

expected to be negate, tireatnig Population in the developing world, which are tal food secur

already vuinerable and food insecure, are ch t>

be che moze seriously affected, In 2005 nearly hat

ofthe economically active population in developing

countries 25 billon peaple—relled on agriculture

for its vein Today 75 percent ofthe wold: poor

This Food Policy Repert presents research results thạc quantify the clmaterchange impacts mentioned shove,aitesses the consequences for food security,

tnd estimate the investments that would oft te

negative consequences for human well-bing This analysis brings cogether fr the fst sme,

deralled model oferop growth under clmate

‘lange wit insights ram an extremely dead global

grculture model using swo climate scensroe to simulate future climate, The rele ofthe analyst suggest tha agriculture ond human well-being will

be negatively affected by climate change:

+ In dvelopng countries climate change wil nace Yad declines for she most important crop South

‘Asia willbe parieur hard he

+ CHưee dong ti key varying fess on ged Yds arozt regions but ried yield for al rope

In South Asia wil experience irge decines + Climate change wil eulinadctionl price increases for te mest mporane agra rops-rie, whose Imalz.and soybeans Higher fed prices wil resut ia Iigher mea prices Asa resule cate change wal reduce the gromth In est consumption alight and

‘urea more subaangl fi creas consumption, + Calorie avail in 2080 wl not only be lower than in de no-linate-hinge scerario— wil cual decine rev 200 leel throughorr the developing word

+ By 2050,the decine in ore sain với heresse til mainatrion by 20 percerreRde to avod#

‘with no cate change Climate change wi iminne much ofthe inprovemen ia child malourishment lanh tht would occur wih no climate change + Thos.agresive agricul productivity vestments

‘of USS71-7, billon? are needed to raze calorie onsumption enough to aflet the negative impacts of climate change on she health and wellbeing of chilren

Recommendations

“The resuks ofthis anlysis suggest the folowing poley

tnd program recommendations I Design aed implement good overall

development policies and programe

{Given the currene uncertain sour locaton spect ind programs are ko thọ be carate ange, adspradonImesonens A pro-growth pro-poor development agenda tht suppers ager ied chmate Gangs adaptation the donlerUe,

‘word, Adspation ro cma change eser when Inridul ve more resources wif operate nan

2 Inereaseivestmentsin agricultural productivg ren withoue mate ange reter investments 0

agiciteralscnoon and tecinebogy ws needed te eet the demands ofa world popuston expected

to rech 3 lon by 2050 ary of these people wil

desire a more diverse diet Agicukural scence: and

‘chology based solitons ate eset co mest

‘rate chnge paces new and more challenging nands on agua product Crop and netock producivy enhanc reerch ndudng owe

‘nate chnge Crops and vertck are needed th are

‘doing resconably wala range of producion snion rans rather than extreme well a narrow se of

targeted to the poorent othe poor can be a powerful

‘pectaian for dctaang poreny treet) by Cres ob and lowering food pies: rodcty trncerent tht Increase fer reilence nthe

‘Gee of emate change pressures willy ave aiar poverty reducng feces Rural nfstructre secon farmers are

to ake advantage of improved eep varies and

‘management eciigues Higher ele and more

‘Cropped are requre mantanin sné ncrvsengthe dent of rural oud necworks to increase acces (0 rarkels and reduce wansacton cons resents irigiton inifecruchreare ko need expel inprove the ficiency of water se but eare mast be tae eo avoid ivesamenc nplces where water Reinvigorate national research and extension programms Investment kboratory scents nd the estate they repre nce, Fararrstps with other ronal sates and incrrational centers are part ofthe soliton CColaborstion wth local rer put supers, (abe eel Comirieh rapes ae eel tfccove developmen nd Gecomincon of oealy seproprate,costefective techque and ulvars haenge ‘Witla countries extension progr cn phy of chnate change, snk fle in fertonstreg ty tchorg

‘ecnology felting mteraczon,buldng peny mong farmers and encouraging farmers to frm ther evn nator Extension servis tat specfclysdoresscmate-changs adaption inde Seosnintng bel cds of rogers trop varieties, teaching proved management Syrtemsand gathering formation fo ete

edeml nhanh uy Farterergatmtions con Seafoam sty ett nd between government dfort and farmer aco,

‘4: Improve gltil data collection, dissenination, and analysis Chnate change wil hve dane

Contequerce or arcohure Homer ubeani esters Thee uncer make fecaloging te

‘move forward on poles o combac the eects

Cf elmate charge Gaba lato calle apd

‘Gsvemiate dns on the spn nature of sgicdurs need rõ b szengthenod Rgglan epee

hservacons ofthe surface ofthe earth vi emote esig are eta Funding for mtinal teste rope shoul be incrested vo dẹc thợ cm

Fis the ask of moniorng lol change Understanding agrclture-chmate interactions wall enough to suppare adaption and mignon

‘coves Sed on En ta roqiree mor improvements nda collection, dseminacon,

ae sala

5, Make agricultural adapeation a key agenda poine within ehefaternational climate

nepotitions prose a window of appareunty for govermen and ei socletyorgatcation tơ advance propos or reo aeons on adaption

4, Recognize that enhanced food security and climate-change adaptation go hand In hand

ecunty alors Hence, any sty thot spores tercukua apeaton seg eobances ood ec

‘Conersey.anything that res in erased fod secur wllpronid che por expec the rr Door wh che resources tat i lp Shem ep to dmae chuc

3pmclcemmnfr-koai sigSifễn

Sate Crop and ero potrenig mrt Gace tanaland apc suport Saree eres

‘esata seapton ok nd soap se

Increase funding for adaptation programs

by at least an additional $7 bllon per year

{Atleast $7 blten pe yearn sional funding is required co fiance ch research, rural nrstrctre, and er

to ole the negate elects of climate change fon haan wellbeing The mic af ivertments Ser by region Sub Sharan Aen requires the reates overall invesnentand vestments in roads, Lai Amerie i grea a renter share of

on investment needed

Climate-Change Scenarios’

apkutedngprnt dfn (4H He aed pmo OS) Zc ind eas ag Tas ran cincinnati pae Eoko)

cewek compensating for elrate change of crn cg whol et co

id

‘The IMPACT model was origly developed by the Inernaonal Food Pac Rezerch Inetute (PRI for projecaing plobal fod spp food demand, nd food cect to 2020 and beyond Ie arlaee 32 crop and restock cemmadiesin 28 region ofthe world hat together cover the earths nd surie (with the

‘exception of Arsarcics), These region are cle food production unt (FPLs).Produson and demand

‘alaonsips in countries ar kd rough intentional trade flows The model smlates growth in erop producion, determined by eropandinput prices, extrallydetarmined rates of productiy growth and area

‘expansion investment in icrigtion, and water avait Demand ra fancon of pices, income, and pops:

‘on growth and contains four eacgories of commodity erané-—food fod biofuel, and other ues The 2009

‘version ofthe model ncider a hydrology model an nk othe DecionSuppore Sytem for Agrotechnology

“Transfor(DSSAT) crop-imulation model wth il fet f ciate change a 05-degre incervasagarepted

up tw the food producton-un lve

‘The DSSAT models usad teases mato change effecs and CƠ; Írdlztien for fe crops, wheat, maiz, soybeans and groundnuts For the remaining crop in IMPACT, the primary asumpon sha pnts 9h snlr pheresymtheúc meabolc pahvays wil react sry co any given climate-change fleet in

_ partcalar geographic region Mile orghum, sugarcane nd maze al foow the same (C4) metabokc

shay andar assumed vo follow the DSSAT rest for maize, In the respective geographic regions The

‘other crops in IMPACT fotow a diferent pathway (C3).s0 the chmate effects are assumed to follow the

verge for whan rc, sy, and groundnts from the she geograpnc region, with wo exceptions The

IMPACT commodiiesof “other grains" and dryland legumes are drety mapped to the DSSAT results for wiveat and groundnuts, respec

Because cimate-chango simulations are inheronty

uncertain wo climate model hve been vsed to

‘Smut future climate, using the A2® scenario of

the IPCs Fourth Assessment Report: the National

‘Center for Atmospheric Research, US (NCAR) model

spd the Commonwealth Siete snd Industral Research Organiantion, Austin (CSIRO) model We

refer t the combintion of model rns wth A2 inputs

sẽ the NCAR and CSIRO scenarios Both scenarios

Proec higher temperatures in 2050, resuling a higher

‘eaporation and increased precipeation as this water

sapor returns to sính, The “wetter” NCAR scenario escimates average precptation increases on land of about 10 percent, whereas the “drier” CSIRO scenario

‘estimates mereases of bout 2 percent Figure | shows the change in average maximum temperstre between 2000 and 2050 forthe CSIRO and NCAR scenario Figure 2 shows changes in average precipitation In each Ser of igure, the legend colors are dential spectic Color represent che sme change fn temperature oF Precpeation across the two scenarios

[A quick glance a these figures shows tha substan ‘iterences exit across the two seanarios For

example, the NCAR scenario has subsentaly Ngher

average maximum temperatures than does CSIRO,

‘The CSIRO scenario hae subrant precipitation

Aecines inthe wescrn Amazon while NCAR shows

‘cies inthe eastern Amazon, The NCAR scenario

has higher predptation in Sub-Saharan Afra than does CSIRO Northern Chin has both higher temperature and more precipitation under NCAR than under CSIRO These figures qualtaielyiurtate the range

of potent climate outcomes using current modeling capitis and provide an inccation ofthe uncertainty

in elmate-hange impacts

Impacts of Climate Change

T: Inpscts of climate change on agriculture and human wel-beng include: |) che biologeal effets on

crop yield; 2} the resuking inpaces on outcomes including pres, production and consumption: and 3)

‘the impacts on per capa calorie consumption and child malucrkion.The biophysical elects of eimate change

‘on apreuture induce changes in production and prices, which phy out dvough the economic system as farmers

nd other market partepants adjust autonomous string crop mis nput use, production food demand, ood

‘consumption, and ere,

ing emperatures and changes in afl pacers

fave det elec on crop yea wel a indrece

fects tough changes Frigton wer ashy

Direct effects on yields rainfed and irgated crops

‘Table | vapors the direct bioloEEl sfecd of the

‘wo climate-change scenarios on erop yields modeled

irc wih DSSAT for raed and irigatd crops

developing and developed countres¢ with and wehout

(CO fertaion (CF and No CF)? These rests are

created by “growing” each crop around the world at

0S.degresintervas with 2000 climate, growing ther

agai wah 3 2080 scenario vale, and then ealelting

the ration ther words, no economic adjustments are

included The rainfed yet changes are even by both

precptation and temperature changes the irrigated

Yel ffecs are from temperature changes alone In developing countries, yield dacines predominate

for most erops without CO: fertlation rigated

wheat and rgaed rie are especialy hard hie On

average, yell in developed counties are aflcted less

‘than those in developing couneris For a fw crops

climate change actualy increases developed-country

elds In alvin these projections, che Eat Asia and

Paci ego combines China, which s temperate for

the mest part and Southeast Asi which wopial

“The diferenal fects ofclinite change in these wo

clenate zones are concealed In Chins, some crope re

rsaronably well bene higher fture temperstiree

sr fvorsble i locations where current rommperstures

area the low end ofthe crops optimal comperature

‘Yields of important crops n Suthess Asa fll substan in both scenarls unless CO; fertllation

is eflecve In farmer el ‘South Asi i particularly hard hit by climate hangs For almost all crop the region withthe _rsrtert yield devine Wth CO, fertiaation, the Yelddacines are lower many loeition, some eld nereases occur relate to 2000, However, Falnfed maize and rigated and rainfed wheat stil ee substancl areas of reduced yeds Sub-Saharan Ali oer mixed osu, with small decnes or increases in maiz yields and large negative offcts on rainfed

‘wheat The Latin America and Caribbean region ako has mice yield effects, with some crop up slighty and some down,

Indirect effects ligated crops imac change wil have a rece impact on water sally for rgaed crops ncrnal renewable water (URW) ithe water avaliable from precpkation Both climate seenrios re m mare precipitation aver Ind

‘than would orcur with no climate change Under the [NCAR scenario, al regions experiance increased IRW Under the CSIRO scenario, the average IRV irene eles than occurs with NCAR, andthe Middle Eset

nd Nenh Arks and Sob-Sharan Afiea regions both

‘experience reduclons of about 4 percent In addon eo preciptation changes climate

“hange-ndced higher temperatures invents the

‘water requirements of crops The ratio of water Consumption co requirements is clledivgaion water supply eliabley (WSR) The salar th ratio the areacer the water stress on rigid erop yl

ha ty crop and management system, X change from

(et anon CP yeh COs eelsen ke cHer CÓ, em

[Across the group of developing countries WSR

Improves under the NCAR seenario and worsens

tinder the CSIRO scenario However regional

<iferencation of climate-change oes important

WSR improves slighty for the Latin Americ and

Caribbean region and for the Middle East and Noreh

‘Area, but worsens slightly for Sub-Saharan Afrea

tinder both scenario For Est Ala and the Pacific and

for South Ari, reinbilty incresres under the NCAR

scenario but declines under the CSIRO scenario, Yield reductions of erignted crops due co water

stress are dectyestinaced in the hydrology portion

(of IMPACT, taking into account the growing demand

for water ouside aricleure as wall as agrieulturl

demands As expected, rgated yaa lores due to

ater sre ae rbtively higher under the CSIRO

seensrio than the NCAR scenario, For example in

Ese Ala and the Pai with no climate change, the ‘combined elects of nonagriuiural demand growth

nd incrented irigted aren rest n an average -48-gercenc đecine in gated rice yols Under the NCAR scenario, the decline i oly 1.2 percent However under the drier CSIRO scenario, the Irlgeted yield loss rom water stress is 67 pereene

In Eat Asi ad the Pei, rgated ree, wheat and raze yield losser ae ll rge tnđe the CSIRO

‘model South Asia rite yo forall erops would

‘experience large declines under both scenarios In

‘Sub-Saharan Afra, maiz yields are less under both models, but the CSIRO effect are especlly age Latin America and the Caribbean yields ae relatively refected.Insr+ dae to the small amount of irrigated production in that region