Nhieu nha nghien cflu nhfl Ronald Aminzade, Larry Griffin, Larry Issac, William Sewell va Margaret Somers da di den ke't luan r i n g nhieu hien tfldng xa hpi cd anh hudng to Idn chi cd
Trang 1LY THUYET XA HOI HOC PHU THUOC TIEN TRINH
TRONG LAP LUAN CUA JAMES MAHONEY
MAI DANG HIEN QUAN*
James Mahoney dang nghien cdu vd gidng day d dgi hgc Northwestern d Evanston bang Illinois Ong la nhd nghien cdu xd hgi hgc chinh tri vi xd hgi hgc
so sdnh, xd hgi hgc lich sd, ly thuye't vl md vd phiidng phdp ludn Mahoney diidc coi Id mgt trong nhiing nhd xd hgi hgc chuyen ngdnh ly thuye't phu thugc tien trinh
vd lich sii so sdnh hdng ddu cua xd hgi hgc My De ghi nhdn nhdng thdnh tiiu ciia ong, ndm 2010, Hgi Xd hgi hgc My dd bau dng la ngiidi ddng ddu hiidng nghien cdu xd hgi hgc lich sd vd xd hgi hgc so sdnh
Do khudn khd Tgp chi cd hgn, bdi viet diidc tdch Idm 2 phdn Diidi day la Phdn I Phdn H se diidc ddng trong so Tgp chi tiep theo
Tap chi Xd hgi hgc
Gan day, nhieu nha xa hpi hpc cd thien hfldng sfl hpc cho rang nghien cflu theo
hfldngp/iw thugc tien trinh (Path Dependence)^ cd y nghia to Idn dd'i vdi khoa hpc xa
hpi Nhieu nha nghien cflu nhfl Ronald Aminzade, Larry Griffin, Larry Issac, William Sewell va Margaret Somers da di den ke't luan r i n g nhieu hien tfldng xa hpi
cd anh hudng to Idn chi cd the dUdc giai thich day du b l n g cac nghien cflu theo hfldng
phu thugc tien trinh (Griffin, 2003) Khdng nhflng the, hp cdn cho r i n g cac cdng cu
cua hfldng nghien cflu xa hpi hpc lich sfl trong bp mon xa hpi hpc tao nen nhflng nen
tang vflng chac cho viec tim hieu va giai thich cac hien tfldng xa hpi theo hfldng phu
thugc tien trinh Khdng chi cae nha xa hpi hpc danh gia cao phfldng phap nay nhieu
nha kinh te hpc lich sfl tham chi da nhan xet rang each nhin sfl viec theo hfldng pAu
thugc tien trinh da lam md rpng pham vi nghien cflu ciia bp mon kinh te ra rat nhieu
(Arthur 1994)
Tuy la mpt hfldng nghien cflu the che mdi, chat che va cd y nghia Idn nhflng phfldng phap nghien cflu nay van cdn tfldng dd'i xa la vdi cae nha chuyen mdn Vay,
cd sd ly thuyet cua phu thugc tien trinh la gi, nd nen dfldc sfl dung trong nghien cflu
• Sinh vien khoa xd hdi hgc Dgi hgc Bates College, Hoa Ky
' Thu&t ngfl chuyen mon nay hien nay chUa c6 each dich that chuan xac Cach dich chuan xac nhat la
"Ly thuye't xa hoi hpc ve sii phi^ thuoc vao tien trinh da qua" Trong bai se sU dung cum tii t i t la
"phu thuoc tien trinh" khi noi den path dependence trong bai nay (Tc XHH)
Trang 2nhfl the nao, cac dieu kien va gidi ban cua nghien cflu nay ra sao? Dd la cac cau hdi
ma bai viet nay se co' gang dfla ra ldi giai dap
I KHAI NIEM PHU THUOC TIEN TRINH
Tuy cae nha khoa hpc da y thflc dfldc ve t i m quan trpng cua ly thuye't nay, khdng phai ai eung hieu nd theo nghia day du Theo James Mahoney, chfla cd nha
nghien cflu nao dfla ra dfldc dinh nghia thflc sfl chuan xac cho khai niem phu
thugc tien trinh Ndi each khac, chfla cd dinh nghia chinh thflc nao ve khai niem
nay thflc sfl xflng t i m vdi y nghia khoa hpc cua nd Thfldng trong cac nghien cflu,
khai niem phu thugc tien trinh dfldc dinh nghia mpt each tfldng dd'i mfl md nhfl
"lich sfl cd y nghia vdi tfldng lai" hoae la "qua khfl anh hfldng hien tai" (Bernanl998) Cac each hieu chfla chinh xac nhfl vay dan tdi sfl lam tfldng r i n g
phu thugc tien trinh chi la mpt phfldng phap trong dd ngfldi ta Isit lai qua khfl de
giai thich mpt hien tfldng xa hpi Theo James Mahoney, day chi la nhflng nghien cflu sfl hpc t h u l n tuy, khi ehflng nghien cflu chuoi sfl kien va nien dai, cdn mpt nghien cflu xa hpi hoc quan tam tdi cac sfl tfldng quan lien ke't gifla cac sfl kien trong mpt chu trinh xa hpi dan tdi ke't qua la mpt hien tfldng xa hpi
Trong cac phan tich ve phfldng phap luan cua minh, J a m e s Mahoney dfla ra ket luan rang mpt nghien cflu c l n cd du ba yeu to' chu chdt de dfldc coi la phu thupc tien trinh
Mpt la, cac nghien cflu phu thupc tien trinh bao gdm viec nghien cflu cac
hien tfldng cd quan he nhan qua va cflc ky nhay cdm vdi cac sfl kien da xay ra
trfldc dd trong toan the chu trinh lich sfl Nhfl Paul Pierson da ndi, trong khuon
kho cua mpt nghien cflu phu thugc tien trinh, cac p h l n trfldc cua chu trinh cd y
nghia quan trpng hdn nhieu so vdi cac phlfi sau; nhflng sfl kien xay ta "qua muon" cd the khdng cd y nghia gi, du cho ehflng cd the se r a t hflu ich neu nhfl xay
ra sdm hdn (Pierson, 2000) Thi nghiem cai binh cua Polya (Polya's urn experiment) dfldc Brian W Arthur coi la vi du dien hinh cho quan diem nay Thi nghiem binh cua Polya la mpt thi nghiem toan hpc cd vai trd kha to Idn, cac ke't qua cua dinh ly nay la cd sd cho nhieu phfldng phap xac suat dfldc ap dung nhieu trong ca efldc va phai sinh ehflng khoan; tuy nhien dd khdng phai la md'i quan tam
chinh cua chung ta d thi nghiem nay, cd x bi xanh va y bi dd dflng trong binh
Mpt vien bi bat ky se dfldc lay ra, ngfldi ta xem nd cd mau gi va bd lai bi dd vao trong binh cflng vdi mpt bi nfla cflng mau Sau khi lam n l l n , chuoi sfl kien nay la
mpt martingale va ti le gifla cac bi hai mau tien tdi b l n g so' a Tuy nghe cd ve
phflc tap, nhflng ve cd ban, thi nghiem nay minh hpa rat cu the cho luan diem cua Pierson: rd rang la trong thi nghiem tren, xac s u i t viec cae vien bi ve sau dUde bdc hoan toan bi anh hudng bdi viec cac vien bi d l u tien dfldc Ifla chpn nhu the nao Cung vdi lap luan tren, ke't qua cud'i cflng cung nhfl ti le mau gifla cac vien trong
Trang 3Ip cung hi anh hfldng bdi vai l l n bd'c bi d l u tien Ddng tinh vdi quan diem trgn, mpt so' nha xa hpi hpc lich sfl cung da phat bieu: "trat tfl cac sfl kien cd the thay
ddi chu trinh" hoae "viec cac sfl kien xay ra khi ndo cd anh hfldng Idn den viec chu trinh xay ra ra sao" (Tilly 1984)
Hai la, trong mpt chu trinh phu thugc tien trinh, cac sfl kien lich sfl xay ra
d l u tien trong chu trinh la ngau nhien (contingent) va khong bi anh hfldng bdi cac dieu kien va hoan canh lich sfl khi chu trinh b i t d l u Nhfl da ndi tren, chi cd cae sfl kien lich sfl xay ra d l u tien cd y nghia to Idn dd'i vdi ke't qua cuoi cflng cua chu trinh va chinh chi tieu nay loai bd kha nang rang cae dieu kien hoan canh lich sfl
cd anh hfldng tdi ket qua Tdm lai, khong the doan dfldc ke't qua cua ca chu trinh
se nhfl the nao neu chi dfla vao hoan canh lich sfl ban dau Jack Goldstone, giao sfl chinh tri hpc va xa hpi hpc dai hpc George Mason da ndi r i n g : "Mpt he thdng cd tinh chat phu thupc tien trinhkhi va chi khi ket qua cua chu trinh khdng cd md'i lien he nao vdi cac dieu kien, hoan canh lich sfl lue ehu trinh sap xay ra." (Goldstone, 1998) Neu ta nhin lai thi nghiem eai binh cua Polya, thi ke't qua cuoi cflng, khi ti le mau gifla hai loai bi tien tdi mpt b l n g so', dau ed lien quan gi tdi viec luc d l u trong binh cd bao nhieu vien bi hay ti le mau gifla chung la bao nhieu Chi den khi mpt vai vien bi d l u tien dfldc hoc ra, ti le mau gifla ehflng mdi
b i t d l u tfl dn dinh quanh mpt gia tri b l n g so' Mpt vi du khac: khdng the ndi r i n g thflc trang nfldc Nhat gid day la mpt cfldng qud'c kinh te (ke't qua ehu trinh) cd lien quan tdi viec Nhat Ban la mpt qud'c gia rat thieu tai nguyen (dieu kien hoan canh lich sfl) Chi den khi ngfldi dan Nhat Ban, vdi ban chat sieng nang va quyet tam dflng day sau t h a t bai trong chien tranh, bat tay vao cai tao dat nfldc vdi dfldng ldi canh tan dung dan cua Nha nfldc, hanh xe Nhat Ban mdi lan nhflng vdng quay than toe tren chu trinh tdi thanh cdng
Ba la, mpt khi cae sfl kien lich sfl d l u tien trong chu trinh dfldc thflc hien, cac sfl kien phia sau di theo mpt chu trinh vdi mo hinh cd tinh dinh hfldng dfla vao quan
he nhan qua (deterministic causal pattern) James Mahoney hay gpi dieu nay la
"quan tinh": khi cae sfl kien qua trinh da dfldc "nhd neo" bang sfl xay ra cua cac sfl kien d l u tien, ehflng se xay ra lien tue nhfl la he qua cua nhau, g i n nhfl mpt hieu flng domino, cho tdi khi ket qua xuat hien va chu trinh ke't thflc Ban chat eua "quan tinh" nay phu thupc vao dang chu trinh, gdm hai loai la chu trinh tfl cung cd' (seLf-reinforcing sequences) va chu trinh phan flng (reactive sequences) Trong chu trinh tfl cung co', quan tinh nay gdm cac cd che cd kha nang tai tao mpt mo hinh phat trien cua chu trinh cflng vdi thdi gian NgUdc lai, trong chu trinh phan flng, quan tinh bao gdm nhflng cd che phan hdi (feedback) de lam cho chu trinh trd lai dflng "dfldng ray"
va nhfl the cac sfl kien sau xay ra mot each g i n nhfl la tfl nhien logic, nhfl la ke't qua cua sfl kien xay ra trfldc trong ehudi P h l n sau bai nay se ndi ro hdn ve b i n chat 2
chu trinh •• :':'n
Trang 4II CHU TRINH TU* CUNG CO VA CHU TRINH PHAN I T N G
1 Chu t r i n h tfl c u n g co (self-reinforcing s e q u e n c e s )
Mpt trong hai loai chu trinh thupc phfldng phap phu thugc tien trinh la chu
trinh tii cung cd O cac chu trinh nay, cac bfldc d l u tien theo mpt hfldng cu the se k^o cac bfldc tiep theo cflng theo hfldng dd va cung vdi thdi gian, hfldng di ay ngay cang trd nen vflng chle va rat khd neu nhfl khong muo'n ndi la khong the re sang mpt hfldng khac Cae nha kinh te hoc thfldng giai thich cac chu trinh tfl cung cdbang mot hpc thuye't kinh te: "ldi ich tang din" (increasing returns); theo cac giai thich nay, xac
s u i t eua mdi bfldc di cang ngay cang tang tren mpt con dfldng dfldc dinh sin, cho tdi khi nd dat tdi mpt gia tri thang b l n g (Pierson, 2000) Trong he thdng ly thuye't kinh
te, dinh de ve ldi ich tang d i n dfldc dflng de giai thich sfl ben vflng va phd bien cua nhieu san pham cong nghe dfl cho chung chfla chac da la nhflng san pham hieu qua nhit, tfl ban phim may tinh QWERTY, oto, may quay video cho den nha may hat nhan hay he thdng dfldng sat (David va Bunn, 1988) , , ,/, ,
Tuy nhien, phd nghien cflu cua cac phfldng p h i p phu thugc tien trinh khong chi dflng lai d phat trien khoa hpc ky thuat theo each nghi cua cac nha vkt ly va kinh te,
nd cdn ed the dfldc ap dung trong cac nghien cflu the che chinh tri va xa hpi Du cho quan diem khoa hpc cd the khac nhau, cac nha nghien cflu deu tho'ng nhat rang tinh chat dac trflng cua the che la nd rat vflng chac, khd cd the hi thay doi mpt sdm mot chieu Chinh vi tinh chat chle chin nay ma the che chinh tri xa hpi la do'i tfldng
nghien cflu r l t phfl hdp do'i vdi phfldng phap phu thugc tien trinh ndi chung va the
che tfl cung cd' ndi rieng
Trong viec nghien cflu the che xa hpi theo phfldng phap phu thugc tien trinh,
cac nha xa hpi hpc lich sfl thfldng di theo mo hinh giai thich lich sfl dfldc giao sfl Arthur Stinchcombe cua dai hpc Northwestern de xuat Stinchcombe nhan manh
r i n g cd hai diem khdi ngudn cho mpi chu trinh: Diem d l u tien la mpt sii kien cu the khdi nguon cho mpt the che Diem thfl hai la qud trinh trong dd cle md hinh xa hpi t\i
tai tao va phat trien (Stinchcombe, 1968) Nhfl vay, ta nhan t h l y ro rang - va y nay
rat quan trpng - rang qua trinh hinh thdnh va qua trinh tdi tgo vd phdt trien cua the
che la 2 qua trinh hoan toan biet lap ve khai niem
a) Phan tich qua trinh hinh thanh cua chu trinh
Vdi cac chu trinh tfl cung cd', cac bfldc d u thanh the che dfldc Mahoney gpi theo ten khoa hpc la cac "nut t h i t trpng yeu" (critical junctures) Nflt t h i t trpng yeu la ndi nlm gifla hoan canh - dieu kien lich sfl trfldc khi xay ra chu trinh va khi ehu trinh b i t dau dfldc thflc hien 6 nut t h i t trpng yeu nay, cac nhan vat quan trpng trong ehu trinh Ifla chpn mpt hfldng di cu the (trong hai hoae ba Ifla chpn), de dinh hudng cho Id trinh cua the che Nhflng nflt t h i t trpng yeu nay "trpng yeu" d chd mpt khi mpt hfldng di cu
Trang 5the da dUdc liia chpn, nhU da lap luan d tren, cac sii kien heh sfl ve sau se hi anh hudng
to Idn va lien tuc xay ra theo quan he nhan qua (hay ndi ddn gian hdn la nhU mpt hieu iing domino) cho tdi khi ke't qua dUde hinh thanh Mpt khi da dat dfldc ket qua nhfl vay, viec ngflde lai ddng thdi gian va quay trd ve diem nut that trpng yeu de chpn mpt hfldng
di cu the khac la dieu cflc ky khd, gin nhfl la khong tfldng G i n day, cae nha khoa hpc
ehflng kien mpt hudng nghien cflu mdi kha h i p dan, dd la trfldng phai nghien cflu phdn
thiic (counter-factual analysis) Trong hfldng nghien cflu nay, ngfldi ta lat lai heh sfl va
phan tich tren cd sd neu mpt hfldng di khac thay vi hfldng di thflc te da dfldc chpn, thi ban la thflc te ke't qua se rat khac khi Ifla chpn khac se thflc day sfl phat trien cua mpt the che khac Nhflng phan tich nhfl vay se r l t hieu qua va thuyet phuc neu nhfl chpn ra dfldc mpt hfldng di dang nhe, theo dfl doan khoa hpc, phai dfldc Ifla chpn, nhflng da khdng dUdc chpn va dan tdi hau qua NhU the, cac phan tich nay tranh dUdc trUdng hdp cau hdi nghien cflu la "Neu da la" heac "Bie't the thi", lam giam y nghia khea hpc cua nghien cflu Vi nhfl khi xfla d hem Hoa Dfldng, Quan Vu ma thed lenh Khdng Minh b i t Tao Thao ve thi lich sfl cd le da re theo mpt hfldng khac hoan toan
Yeu to' ngau nhien rat quan trpng khi viec Ifla chpn gifla eac kha nang d nut that trpng yeu cua chu trinh Ngau nhien d day khdng nen hieu theo nghia hoan toan ngau hflng va khong cd cd sd khoa hpc Ngau nhien d day dfldc dung de mieu ta viec
ly thuye't khong the dfl doan hay giai thich, dfl cu the hay theo mot xac s u i t nao dd, ke't qua cu the eua mpt chu trinh tfl dieu kien lich sfl ban dlu Dfl cho nhieu nha nghien cflu coi sfl ngau nhien ve cd ban cung la mpt p h l n cua ly thuyet nhan qua (Manis va Meltzer, 1994; King, Keohane va Verba, 1994), cac nha xa hpi hpc lich sfl cho r i n g ngau nhien la d chd tfldng lai khdng the dfldc dfl doan theo ly thuye't xac
s u i t hay ly thuye't kinh te nao het Bien luan rang mpt sfl kien la ngau nhien khdng
cd nghia la cho r i n g sfl kien nay hoan toan tfly tien Yeu to' ngau nhien gan bd chat
che den ly thuyet phu thugc tien trinh, khdng cd ngau nhien trong Ifla chpn d cac nut that trpng yeu la khong co phu thugc tien trinh
Bang 1 Minh hoa qua trinh ba bade cua chu trinh tu cung co
A
B
C
Hi^n tr^ng ban dau, dieu
kl^n ljch si>
OIgm 1; nhieu each li/a chpn (A,e
ho^c C) Ly thuyet lihong th? d v
doin hojc giii thich tai sao mpt
phiTOTg incvth^diforcchpnlcrday
Nijt t h i t trpng yeu
Diem 2: phmrng an B duvc \>ta
chon, chur khong phai la A ho|c
C Day la mpt si/ li/a chpn ngau nhien
Tl/cung CO
Oiem 3: Phifomgan B t i e p t g c t i / cijng CO qua thai gian va trcr nen v&ng chic han
Trang 6Hinh tren bieu diin theo thfl tfl thdi gian trinh tfl cua cac bfldc d l u tien trong chu trinh tfl cung cd Nd cho thay d diem thdi gian mpt, cd 3 Ifla chpn A, B va C cung
la 3 dinh hfldng eho chu trinh James Mahoney n h i n manh r i n g viec mpt phUdng an
cu the (d day la B) dUde liia chpn khdng the dUdc dii doan hay giai thich theo b i t cfl ly
thuye't nao Ve mat ly thuye't, neu ta cd the tua lai lich sfl va chpn lai eac phfldng an
khac (d day la A va C), thi xac s u i t phfldng an B dfldc chpn cung se ngang b l n g vdi
xac s u i t cac phfldng an cdn lai dfldc chpn Viee Ifla chpn d day ngdu nhien theo nghia
nhfl vay
Trong thflc te nghien cflu, eae nha khoa hpc se coi mpt sii kien la ngau nhien neu nhfl khdng giai thich dfldc sfl kien dd blng ly thuye't khoa hpc Cu the hdn, cac nha xa hpi hoc se coi mpt sfl kien la ngau nhien neu (a) nd cd quy mo nhd va qua cu the de n l m trong bat efl ly thuyet khoa hpc nao, nhfl viec mpt nha lanh dao chinh tri
bi am sat hoae (b) nd ed quy md Idn nhflng n l m ngoai quy luat xa hpi nhfl cac tham
hpa tfl nhien (Munck, 1993) Cac nha nghien cflu cung cd the coi mpt sfl kien la ngdu
nhien neu nd di ngflde lai eac ly thuye't xa hpi cd kha nang dfl doan mpt ket qua theo
mpt hfldng cu the Vi du, cac nha kinh te hpc lich sfl se coi viec cic cong nghe khong
hieu qua v l n dfldc sfl dung la ngdu nhien vi nd di ngflde lai cac quy luat cd ban cua
vat ly va kinh te, dfl cho ke't qua nay se khdng dfldc tien doan bdi cac ly thuye't khoa
hpc xa hpi khac Viec nhan manh vao sfl ngdu nhien cd y nghia khoa hoc to Idn, neu khdng cd sfl ngdu nhien trong viee Ifla chpn cae phfldng an d diem 1 (xem hinh 1) thi
ca chu trinh theo hxidng phu thugc tien trinh se khdng the cd lien quan tdi tinh khong
the dii dodn triidc va tinh khdng hieu qud - nhflng dac diem nay r l t cd ban va quan
trpng; chung la tien de de khang dinh r i n g phu thugc tien trinh la mot each nhin
hoan toan khac so vdi cae trfldng phai kinh te hpc tan cd dien
Chung ta ed the tim thay nhieu vi du cho quan diem dd tfl ddi sd'ng hang ngay Ban phim may tinh tdi dung de go bai viet nay, ban phim QWERTY cung la ban phim phd bien n h i t , chung d dien thoai Blackberry, d may n h i n tin, d cac may ATM Idn The nhflng, it ai biet ring, ban phim l y da dfldc ehflng minh la khdng hieu qua blng ban phim DVORAK (David, 1985) Vay, cac nha nghien cflu theo hpc thuye't kinh te hpc tan cd dien, nhflng ngfldi tin vao tinh hieu qua, se giai thich hien tfldng nay the nao? Dang nhe ra, ban phim DVORAK phai dfldc chpn khi cac hang may danh chfl b i t d l u san xuat, nhflng hp da chpn ban phim QWERTY va tfl dd g i n nhfl dau la loai ban phim duy nhat tren the gidi Sfl Ifla chpn nhfl vay, do dd, la mpt sii Ifla chpn nglu nhien trong chu trinh xa hpi trong dd ban phim QWERTY trd thanh ban phim phd bien nhat, dieu ma khdng dinh ly hay tien de khoa hpc nao dii doan hay ehflng minh dfldc trfldc khi eac may danh chfl dfldc san xuat
b) Phan tich sfl tfl cung cd' cua chu trinh
Nhfl da ndi, cac nha xa hpi hoc nghien cdu phu thugc tie'n trinh thudng hi anh
Trang 7hudng bdi cac nha kinh te hpc lich sfl, nhflng ngUdi cd quan diem r i n g dac diem hap dan nhat cua chu trinh la viec nd cd kha nang se khdng dat hieu qua cao nhat
(potential inefficiency) Tuy nhien, theo James Mahoney, potential inefficiency chi la
ke't qua hap d i n dd'i vdi nhflng nha nghien cflu theo chu nghia vi ldi (utilitarian) cua
trfldng phai kinh te hoc tan cd dien; phd nghien cflu cua trfldng phai phu thugc tie'n
trinh rpng hdn rat nhieu va cd kha nang ap dung cho nhieu khudn khd ly thuye't
ngoai chu nghia vi ldi Do dd, de hieu hdn ve tam quan trpng cua ly thuyet pAu thugc
tien trinh, ta nhat thiet phai xem xet nd tfl chieu canh cua eac ly thuye't Idn trong he
tho'ng tri thflc xa hpi hoc
Theo Randall Collins, nha xa hpi hoc eua dai hpc University of Pennsylvania, bd'n khung ly thuyet xa hpi hpc cd the dfldc sfl dung vao viec phan tich kha nang tii tai tao, tu cung cd' cua cac chu trinh gdm cd thuye't vi ldi (utilitarian), chflc nang (functional), quyen Iflc (power) va hdp ly Oegitimation) Dfldi day xin tdm t i t luan diem chinh cua cac ly thuyet nay dd'i vdi sfl tfl tai tao va tfl cung ed' eua tie'n trinh
Thuyet vi ldi
Trong bp mdn kinh te hpc lich sfl, cac nha nghien cflu thfldng dflng thuyet phan tich vi ldi de giai thich cac chu trinh tii tai tao Trong khudn khd ly thuyet nay, nhflng nhan vat cd anh hfldng, cd the quye't dinh van menh cua chu trinh, theo ly thuyet Ilia chpn sang suot (rational choice theory), mudn duy tri eae the che dfldc tao
ra hoae de ehflng tfl tai tao tham chi ngay ca khi nd chfla dat dfldc ldi tflc mong muo'n, vi neu thay ddi md hinh dd hp se bi thua thiet ve ldi ich Mot khi van da ddng thuyen, tau da ra khdi thi rat khd thao tau ra va lap lai ngay ca khi tau van hanh khdng dfldc thuan cheo mat mai
Suy rpng ra tfl thuye't vi ldi, cac the che nay se hi thay ddi mpt khi nd khdng eon kha nang sinh ldi Cae nhan vat ed anh hfldng (actors) se khdng de the che tfl tai tao nfla neu hp khdng cdn dfldc hfldng ldi tfl nd Theo quy luat thi trfldng, cae nha nghien cflu thuye't vi ldi thfldng coi tinh canh tranh cao - hay manh hdn la quy luat dao thai
- cua thi trfldng la cd sd eho sfl thay ddi the che
Tuy nhien sfl thay ddi theo thuyet vi ldi dien ra cham hdn d ngoai quy luat thi trfldng Thfldng trong ddi sd'ng xa hpi, viec danh gia chi phi va ldi nhuan cua oae ket qua the che khac khd hdn so vdi d thi trfldng Do dd, cac nhan to' xa hdi se it cd kha nang quye't dinh dfla tren ly thuyet ldi tflc t h u l n hdn la cac nhan tc' kinh te Theo ly
luan nay, the che la ket qua cua cae chu trinh phu thugc tie'n trinh dfldc giai thich
theo thuyet vi ldi se van chac c h i n neu dat ngoai pham vi cua thi trfldng
Thuye't chdc ndng
'Cac nha khoa hpc theo ldi chflc nang ly giai hien tUdng tU cung cd'eua cac chu trinh theo hai ldi giai thich, mpt ldi nghi "nhe" va mpt Id'i nghi "manh" 6 ldi nghi
Trang 8"nhe", sii tii cung cd, tii tai tao cua eae the che chi dupe giai thich la do cac he qua cua chinh nd, dieu n l m trong khudn khd cua nhieu ly thuyet xa hpi cd ban d ldi nghi
"manh", sii tU tai tao cua the che dfldc giai thich bdi nhflng he qua cd tinh chflc nang cua nd (chflc nang hdp nhat, chflc nang thich flng, chflc nang sinh tdn) , va sfl tai tao nay dfldc dat trong tfldng quan cfla mpt mo'i quan he tUdng tac vdi he thdng Idn hdn ham chfla the che dd Nhfl the, d each nghi nay, cac he qua cua the che ddi vdi he tho'ng Idn hdn eung la tac nhan gay nen sfl tai tao cac the che ay Cac nha nghien cflu theo quan diem nay se coi r i n g hoan canh xa hpi, dieu kien lich sfl trfldc khi chu trinh xac lap the che dfldc b i t d l u ed the giai thich t h u l n tfly b l n g thuye't muc dich (teleology), blng nhflng ldi ich va the che se mang lai cho he thdng mpt khi nd dfldc hinh thanh James Mahoney chfla hai long vdi cac ldi nghi nay, vi nd di ngflde lai vdi
khai niem ve phu thugc tie'n trinh eua dng, khi ong cho rang dieu kien hoan canh lich
sfl trfldc khi chu trinh dfldc xac lap khdng the giai thich bang bat cfl ly thuyet nao, va
quan he mpt each ngdu nhien vdi ke't qua cua the che Do dd, trong each giai thich
phu thugc tien trinh, chflc nang cua he tho'ng cd the ly giai sfl phat trien, tfl tai tao
cua the che, nhflng tuyet nhien khdng the giai thich cho ngudn go'c hay dieu kien lich sfl cua nd dfldc
Mpt khi cac sfl kien ngdu nhien da chpn Ifla dfldc mpt hfldng di cho the che', the
che se phat trien theo mpt hfldng di gan nhfl dfldc cac logic cua thuye't chflc nang dinh san: the che cd mpt chflc nang nao dd vdi he tho'ng, dieu nay lam the che Idn manh len; mpt khi the che Idn manh len, kha nang ddng gdp chflc nang dd cua nd cho
he tho'ng cang tang; sau dd the che cang Idn manh them, rdi d i n d i n dan den sfl vflng chac va ben bi Ta nhan thly, chflc nang cua the che do'i vdi he tho'ng la tac nhan cd ban dan tdi sfl phat trien Idn manh cua the che Nhfl vay, chflc nang cua the che thay the thuyet vi ldi trong each giai thich nay Tuy nhien, cae nha nghien cflu theo thuyet chflc nang cung nhan xet r i n g , do sfl Ifla chpn co tinh dinh hfldng luc dlu
la ngau nhien, rat cd kha nang the che dfldc chpn se khdng hieu qua b l n g cac the che
cd the da dfldc chpn Trong hinh mpt, chfla chic B da la hfldng di to't nhat, cd the neu
A hoae C dfldc chpn thi the che khac dfldc hinh thanh se hieu qua hdn Ve diem nay,
ca hai each giai thich ed nhieu diem tfldng ddng
Trong ly thuyet chflc nang, the che luon dfldc dat trong mpt he tho'ng tdng the Idn hdn, gan nhu dUde he the'ng nudi dUdng va cung nhd the ma the che' tiep tflc phat trien dfldc Do dd, de the che ed nhflng thay ddi ed ban, can cd mpt cu sd'e tac dpng rat manh vao toan bd he thdng tdng quat, eu sd'e nay se lam the che bi anh hfldng Idn va buoc nd phai thay ddi de thich nghi vdi mdi trfldng mdi
Thuye't quyin liic
Gio'ng nhfl cac nha nghien cflu theo thuyet vi ldi, cac hpc gia theo thuye't quyen liic giai thich hien tUdng tii eung cd cua cae the che blng each danh gia gifla ldi tflc va ehi
Trang 9phi Tuy nhien, khac vdi quan diem thuyet vi ldi, cac hpc gia nay tin r i n g the che phan phd'i ldi tflc va chi phi khdng deu, va hp nhan manh r i n g cae ca nhan cd anh hfldng vdi cac mflc vd'n khac nhau se ed nhflng ldi tflc khac nhau tfl the che Tfl each nhin theo thuye't quyen liic, mpt the che cd the vflng chac ngay ca khi p h l n Idn cae ca nhan hoae nhdm mudn thay ddi nd, mien la cd mpt ca nhan cd vd'n rat Idn (hdn ban nhiing ea nhan hoae nhdm kia) muo'n duy tri nd vi ca nhan dd dUdc hudng ldi tfl the che
Trong nghien cflu ve phu thugc tie'n trinhvdi each giai thich theo quyen Iflc, can
nguyen cua mpt the che khdng phai la mpt sfl phat trien dfldc ly thuye't dfl doan tren
cd sd s i p xep quyen Iflc tfl trfldc do Tuy nhien, mpt khi the che phat trien, no dfldc cung cd' theo tfldng tac quyen liic, va dieu nay cd the doln trfldc dfldc Tfl dlu, the che lam cd ldi mpt so' ea nhan hoae nhdm va cd hai cho mpt so' khac Cac ca nhan dfldc hfldng ldi tfl the che se tim mpi each de duy tri va phat trien nd, ngflde lai, sfl phat trien cua the che' cang lam cac ca nhan tren dfldc hfldng ldi hdn Qua trinh cfl tiep
dien nhfl vay Do viec Ifla chpn cac hfldng di cua the che luc dau la ngdu nhien, cd
kha nang cae nhdm dfldc hfldng ldi tfl the che ed the Iflc d l u la cac nhdm le thupc ( d p dfldi) cfla cac nhdm khac, vd'n ung hd mdt hfldng di khac Nhfl vay, each giai thich sfl
tu cung cd' cua the che theo each nay ed the dflng de minh hpa viee the che cd kha nang thay ddi d u trflc quyen Iflc trong cae nhdm xa hpi bang each lam cle nhdm d p dfldi manh len va cac nhdm d p tren yeu di
Theo each giai thich nay, sfl tai tao cua the che la mpt qua trinh d l y xung dot, trong dd cd nhieu nhdm hi the che lam thua thiet Chinh sfl xuat hien cua xung dot nay la cd sd cho sfl thay ddi, manh hdn la sup dd, cua the che The che cang phat trien thi mpt nhdm cang dfldc hfldng ldi, va mpt nhdm cang hi thua thiet, ma trong lich sfl, da ed xung dot la cd dau tranh Chinh nhflng dau tranh dd la dpng Iflc to Idn khien cho the che phai thay ddi
Thuye't hdp ly
Trong khudn khd ly thuyet cua thuyet hdp ly, sfl tfl cung ed' eua the che phu thupc vac y kien chu quan eua ca nhan cd anh hfldng tdi the che; ca nhan se muo'n the the tiep tuc phat trien neu ngfldi dd tin r i n g sfl phat trien dd khdng di ngflde lai luan ly va dao dfle theo quan diem chu quan Mpt khi actor dd nghi r i n g the che nay hdp vdi cac gia tri theo quan diem ca nhan, ngfldi dd se ung hp viec duy tri the che Dfl cho mflc dp ung hp cua cac ca nhan cd the khac nhau, thuyet hdp ly coi r i n g quye't dinh chu quan cua ca nhan la tac nhan chinh thuc day sfl phat trien Idn manh cua the che
Thuye't hdp ly tuan theo yeu to' cd ban eua thuye't phu thugc tien trinh: met khi hfldng di cho the che da dUdc liia chpn mpt each ngdu nhien, nd se cang Idn manh neu
cang dUde ca nhan quye't dinh chap nhan Su chap nhan nay dUde ke't d u tfl mot chu
ky cua cac phan hdi tich cUc: mdt sU kien dUdc chap nhan trong qua khfl se tao tien
de va neu rd dac diem cua cac viec se dUdc chip nhan trong tUdng lai Chu ky nay md
Trang 10rpng ra se la ed sd cho sii tii cung cd eua the che: the che trong qua khfl lam nen nen tang cho sfl hdp ly, the che nay dfldc tai tao vi nd dfldc coi la hdp ly, va sfl tai tao cua the che lam cai hdp ly cang hdp ly hdn
Nhfl da ndi d tren, cac the che, theo each nhin nay, tii tai tao dfldc la do quan diem chu quan Va khong phai quan diem chu nao chic chin; nd cd the thay ddi theo cac each nhan thflc khac nhau, theo thdi gian chlng ban Khai niem "phu hdp" va "hdp ly" theo quan niem ca nhan cung la cac khai niem chenh venh, cd the hi bao mdn theo thdi gian
va chiu anh hfldng bdi trinh dp nhan thflc Mpt khi ea nhan cd anh hfldng thay ddi quan niem chu quan ve hdp ly, ca nhan dd se khdng cdn thay the che hien thdi la hdp ly nfla,
va mudn thay ddi nd theo quan niem chu quan mdi ve sfl hdp ly
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