Theo cdc kel qud ciia md hinh khi hau, cdc sd lieu quan trac ciia ve tinh va nhijng quan h-dc thuy van, myc nudc bien tang khdng ddng deu tren the gidi.. La mdt khu vyc chiu nhieu lac dg
Trang 1/ Q U n TRINH Dl DDN Till VI6T NAM
TRONG 061 CRNH BICN DOI KHI HfiU TORN CRU
Sergei V.P.* Nguyen Canh Toan'* Archem CL.*** Roman V.M.****
L61 Tda soan: Bdi viit ndy la mpt phdn kit qud cita Du dn 13-22-09001 (2013-2015) do Quy Khoa hpc xa hpi (RGNF) true thupc Tdng thdng Lien bang Nga tdi trg Vien Nghien cieu Chdu Au Vien Hdn ldm Khoa hoc xd hdi Viet Nam vd Vien Nghien ctru Chinh tri Xd hdi -Vien Hdn ldm Khoa hoc Lien bang Nga ciing thiec hien
Tom tdt: V&i sd ddn tren 90 trieu ngu&i, Viet Nam la mgt trong nhirng qudc gia ddng ddn tren the gi&i, cd tiem ndng l&n ve luc lugng lao dpng Ddn so Viet Nam tdng nhanh trong khi mpt phdn ldnh thd ciia Viet Nam co the bi thu hep do muc nu&c bien ddng cao, dieu ndy cd the se ddn den mpt bp phdn lao dgng phdi di cu Mpt phdn di ddn lao dpng ciia Viet Nam cd the se huang t&i nu&c Nga, Chdu Au - khu vuc cd lich sic lau d&i trong viec tiep nhgn nguai Viet di cu
Tir khoa.- Di ddn, bien ddi khi hgu, lao dgng, viec ldm, LB Nga, Viet Nam
1 Bien doi khi hau toan cau dan den
bien doi di dan lao dgng
Bien ddi khi hdu gay ra thdm hpa thien
nhien nhu lii,lut, sa mac hda da vd dang
tac dgng tdi qua trinh phdt trien kinh te - xa
hpi cua nhieu qudc gia tren the gidi Mdt
trong nhtmg nguyen nhdn chu yeu la do lang
Vi^rt St liidng dn Vi^n Ha tdm khoa ligc LB Nga
" TS, Vl^tt Nghien ciru Clidu Au
'"TS Vf^n Hdn ldm khoa hfc LB Nga
lugng khi thai dioxit-cacbon vao khi quyen Iam khi hdu Trdi dat ndng len Neu nhu vdo nhirng nam 1990, Iugng khi thai hang nam tang Ien 1,1% thi den nhiing nam 2000 dd la 3% Dieu ndy se dan tdi nhieu hau qua khdn ludng, trong dd cd nudc bien ddng vd ddn den nhieu vimg lanh thd se bi ngdp lut
Nhieu cdng trinh nghien ciru duoc lien hdnh da chi ra rang, muc nudc bien da dang len ddc biel nhanh d the ky XX den nay Ddc bi?t tdi cudi the ky XXI, muc nudc d cac dai duong se tdng khodng 35-40cm Nguyen
Trang 248
nhan co bdn Id su dm len ciia Trai dat Idm
lan bdng d Bac cue va Nam cue Theo cdc
kel qud ciia md hinh khi hau, cdc sd lieu
quan trac ciia ve tinh va nhijng quan h-dc
thuy van, myc nudc bien tang khdng ddng
deu tren the gidi Mpl bdo cao dac biel ve
bien ddi khi hdu ciia nhdm chuyen gia ciia
chinh phu cac nudc tren the gidi da dy dodn
rdng, den giira ndm 2090, muc nudc cac dai
duong se dang cao hon mirc nam 1990 tir
0,22 den 0,44m vd se tdng them khoang
4mm mdi ndm
Tdt cd cdc dieu ndy se dan tdi viec gidm
bdt cdc dia bdn cu tni truyen thdng, gidm
viec lam, ddy manh nhu cau di cu gdy ra
nhirng he lyy chinh trj - xa hdi La mdt khu
vyc chiu nhieu lac dgng ciia viec bien ddi khi
hdu, du bao cac nudc Ddng Nam A va Nam
A cd se nhieu vimg lanh thd hi ngap bdi
nudc bien dang, trong do Viet Nam la mpl
trong nhirng nudc de hi tdn thuong nhdt
Nhirng ngbien cuu cua chiing ldi ve Viet
Nam se dua ra biic tranh tdng the nhu sau:
Ndm 2011, dan sd Viet Nam Id 87,8
trieu ngudi (diing thii 13 tren the gidi), mat
dp 270 ngudi/km Mac dii chinh sach sinh
de cd ke hoach cua nhd nudc Viet Nam dang
Id ra cd kel qua va nhin chung tdc do phat
trien dan sd cd giam nhung dan sd ciia Viet
Nam vdn tang hon 20 trieu ngudi trong 20
ndm (1990-2010)
Theo du bao, neu nudc bien dang d miic
bien ciia Viet Nam se Id 105cm Se cd 7 tinh ven bien cd nguy co hi nhan chim, gan 40% dien tich ddng bang sdng Mekong, hom 10% dien tich ddng bang sdng Hdng vd Quang Ninh bi ngap Hdu qua cua viec lang si lugng cac tran Iii lyt Id Viet Nam se hi mdt 5% lanh thd
Viet Nam se phai gdnh chiu cdc vdn dl kinh te ldn nhu: GDP giam 10%, sdn xuat ndng nghiep bi cat gidm 7%, ton thdt ve lua gao (loai luang thuc chinh cua ngudi Viet)
la 5 trieu tdn, 11% nhd d, gdn 4% dudng sat, 9% dudng bd ciia he Ihdng giao thong qudc gia, 12% dudng giao thdng lien tinh
se bi nhdn chim vd phd hiiy Tat cd nhimg van de nay se dan tdi nguy co khung hodng kinh te - xa hdi ldn Ro rang se co mot he luy xdy ra lai Viet Nam Id di dan bdt ddc di do bien ddi khi hau, trong khi vdn phai tinh den
sd ddn, ldc dp tang dan sd va mat dp dan cu ciia dat nudc
Viec di cu cua ngudi dan sang cac khu vuc khac cua ddi nudc va cd the den nhirng qudc gia khac Id tat yeu Cd khoang 38% dan
sd tai cac tinh ddng bang sdng Ciru Long, gdn 9% ddn cu ddng bdng sdng Hong va Quang Ninh, gdn 9% dan cu cdc linh ven bien mien Trung va khoang 7% dan sd thdnh phd Hd Chi Minh cdn phdi di chuyen Khong chi cd hang nghin, md la hdng trieu ngudi budc phdi di cu
Cdc viing ldnh thd ven bien ciia Vi?t Nam hi ngdp lyt se dan tdi mpl cudc di dan
Trang 349
mang tinh eye bg, trong khudn khd mdt ddt
nudc, ma cdn cd y nghTa tdi quan trgng d cdp
dp qudc te Ddng ngudi di cu vi Iy do khi
hdu tir Viet Nam cd Ihl se de dga cdc vdn d l
dan sd vd kinh le - xa hdi d cac nudc tilp
nhdn hg neu nhirng nudc ndy khdng sdn sang
ddi mat vdi nhiing vdn d l dd
Trong bai nghien ciiu nay, chiing tdi
dua gid thiel ddng ngudi di cu vao Lien bang
Nga, mdt trong nhirng nudc thupc danh sdch
hdng ddu danh cho di dan hien nay, ciing nhu
ddt nudc nay trudc day da cd truyin Ihong
2 Sir phdt trien dan so hien nay cua Viet Nam
Tir nam 1990 den 2010, dan sd Viel Nam da ldng them 20,7 trieu ngudi, dua t5ng
sd ddn len 87,8 trieu ngudi so vdi 67,1 trieu ngudi ndm 1990 Du bdo den nam 2015, ddn s6 Viet Nam ldng len 92,1 trieu ngudi, x l p thii 15 tren the gidi Tuy nhien, trong qua trinh nghien cihi cho thdy, nhip dp tang dan
sd cua Viet Nam khdng deu, cd dau hieu giam ddn dudi miic 90 trieu va dang gia di
nhanh (xem Bieu dd \) Giai doan tir 1990
tiep nhdn ngudi Viet Nam sang hgc tap lao din 1995 cd cac chi sd ldn nhdt, tang gdn 7 dpng Hon niia, trudc tiem nang di cu ciia
Viet Nam den Nga vd cdc nudc khdc, trudc
het la cac nudc Ddng Nam A, Viel Nam va
cdc nudccan phdi sdn sang don nhdn cac linh
hudng cd the xdy ra, neu khdng dong ngudi
di cu ldng Ien cd the lam trdm trpng them
tinh Irang di dan
Bimg 1: Cac chi so cff ban cua qua trinh phat trien dan so Viet Nam tir 1990 den 2010'
trieu ngudi Tir nam 2010, dan sd ly nhien lai Viet Nam dan dugc kiem chl va gidm ddn (Xem them Bang 1) Ket qud gidm nay mdt phdn do tac dpng ciia chinh sach ke hoach hda gia dinh ciia Chinh phii Viet Nam
Dan so trung binh hang nam (trieu nguoi;
Nam
Dan
so
1990
67,120
1995
74,008
2000
78,758
2005
83,161
2010
87,848
2011
87,840
2012
88,979
2013
90,1710*
2014
91,500**
2015
92,100**
•Nhan Dan dien tii, Ngay 01/11/2013: Cong ddn thu 90 trieu cita Viet Nam chao doi,
hltp://www.nhandan.com.vn/suckhoe/tin-tuc/item/21549702-c%C3%B4ng-d%C3%A2n-th%El %BB%A9-90-tri%El %BB%87u-c%El %BB%A7a-vi%El %BB%87t-nam-ch%C3%A0o-%C4%91%El%BB%9Di.html, lai ngay 26/8/2014
* , » * , * • * : uoc tinh
^ Slatistical Yearbook for Asia and the Pacific 20! I Mn\lti Nations Publication J^e E II.II.F.I
Trang 450
Ti le tang dan s6 (%)
1990-1995
2,0
1995-2000
1,2
2000-2005
1,1
2005-2010
1,1
2010-2015
1,05***
Ngudn: Giang Thanh Long, Tan diing ca hdi ddn sd "vdng " & Viet Nam Ca hdi vd thdch thiec Tap chi UNFPA/Quy Ddn sd Lien hgp qudc, Hd Ndi, thdng 12/2010, trang 28-29 Tong cue Ddn sd & Ke hoach hoa gia dinh Ket qud thuc hien muc tieu, chi tieu quoc gia
hltp://www.gopfp.gov.vn Truy cap ngay 25 thang 8 nam 2014
Tdng cue Thdng ke, Dien tich, ddn so vd mat do ddn sd cdc ndm 2010-2015 phdn theo dja phuang vd Ddn so trung binh phdn theo gi&i tinh tie ndm 1990-2015 "The World
Factbook: Vietnam" CIA Truy cap ngay 25 thang 8 nam 2014
*** udc tinh
Bieu do 1 Dan s6 Viet Nam 1950 - 2010 va du- bao &in nam 2100
110000
100000
-aoooo
^ 7 0 0 0 0
31 e o D o o
3 5 0 0 0 0
3 0 0 0 0
M a m „.«P , * - * - , * - ,«.•• j P " j^-» ^«w» ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ' ^ ^ ^
Nguon: Nguyin Van Tuan, Ddn so Viet Nam dang gia nhanh, Vien Nghien cum Y khoa
Garvan, chuyen gia nghien cihi cao cap cua Uy hoi Nghien cihi Y khoa va Y tS qu6c gia Uc
(NHMRC Senior Research Fellow) Sure khoe & Doi s6ng, bao dien tit ca quan ngon luan
ciiaBoYtS, 01/11/2013
sinh song, lam viec 6 nong thon Co c^u d? cua dan s5 Viet Nam nhu sau:
Giai doan 1990-2010, t6c do do thi hoa
o Viet Nam tang dang ke va s6 dan do thi
tang, du vay t6c do do thi hoa ciia Viet Nam 0-14 tuoi: 24,3% (nam: 11.946.656; nB:
Trang 551
15-24 tuoi: 17,8% (nam: 8.598.360; nCr:
8.023.377);
Nghien cmi tu nam 1990 den 2010 cho thdy he sa sinh chung giam d4n Nam 2010,
a Viet Nam con so nay la 16,6%o so voi 27,3%o nam 1990 He so sinh tdng quat trong giai doan nghien cuu cung giam, xudng l,8%o/nam 2010 so voi 3,2%o/nam 1990 0 Viet Nam, he so tu vong chung tinh dSn nam
2010 cQng giam dan, xuong 5,2%o so voi
6,9%o nam 1990 (Xem them Bdng 2)
Bang 2: He so sinh va tu-vong chung cua dan so Viet Nam nhfl-ng nam 1990-2010
25-54 tuoi: 44,8% (nam: 20.983.638;
nil: 20.861.243);
55-64 tu6i: 7,4% {nam:3.149.494; nu:
3.763.309);
65 tu6i trd len: 5,6% (nam 2.034.721;
ntt 3.260.435) (2014)
Nam /
Nuac
Viet
Nam
Dan so trung binh hang nam (%)
1990-1995
27,3
1995-2000
19,0
2000-2005
17,2
2005-2010
17,2
2010
16,7
1990-1995
6,9
1995-?000
5,8
He so tu chung (%)
2000-2005
5,3
2005-2010
5,1
2010
5,2
Nguon: Tong cue Dan so & Ke hoacli hoa gia dinh Kel qud thirc hien muc lieu, chi lieu qudc gia
http://www,gopfp.gov.vn/home Truy cap ngay 25 thang 8 nam 2014
phu nil la 76,2 luoi ndm 2010 so vdi 69,6 tu6i nam 1990 Giai doan 1990 - 2010, so lugng nam gidi ctia Vi^t Nam lang len ddi chiit, trong klii do sd Iugng phu nu lai giam Nhu vdy, d Viet Nam, cu 100 phu
nir thi chi cd 98 nam gidi (Xem them Bdng 3)
He sd tu vong tre d Viet Nam, trong
giai doan dugc nghien cuu cung gidm
xuong: nam 2009 Id 19%o so vdi 39%o
nam 1990 Trong giai doan nay, luoi thg
ciia ngudi Viet Nam cung tdng Ien Tudi
thg cua dan dng Viet Nam nam 2010 la
72,3 tudi so vdi 69,6 tudi ndm 1990; cua
Bdng 3: He so tuong quan ve gioi d Viet Nam nhiing nam 1990 - 2010
Tucmg quan ve giai, sd nam gidi tren 100% nu gidi
Nam
T i l e
1990
95
1995
96
2000
97
2005
97
2010
98
Ngudn: Statistical Yearbook for Asia and tlie Pacific 2011 United Nations Publication Kb
E.ll.II.F.l.-2011,trangl47-149
Giai doan 1980 - 2010, dan sd Viet '"^' d ™ 14, tinh ddn nam 2011, giam di
Nam dupc chia theo 3 nhdm do tudi, cOng cd ^^''S ^^- n™ 2011 chi chidm 25,2% so vdi
41,7% nam 1980 Nhdm cd dd ludi lit 15
Trang 652
64, tdng Ien 69,3% so vdi 53,3% ndm 1980
Bp phan ddn cu tren 65 tudi tdng tir 5,0%
ndm 1980 Ien 5,5% vao nam 2011 DiSu nay
cho thdy ddn sd Viet Nam cd xu hudng gid
di, mgt su bat lgi cho ngudn Iao ddng trong
tucmg Iai Tuy nhien, bien lai cau tnic do tudi
- gidi tinh cua dan sd Viet Nam van luong
d6i tre, tao ca sd cho su phdt trien ndng ddng
Ihi trudng lao dgng
3 Cac y£u td nhan khau hoc trong
su-phat triln thi truong lao dong d Viet Nam
Lao dpng nong nghiep: Dan sd ciia Viel
Nam ldng khd nlianh, sau 50 ndm
(1950-2000), dan so lang gdn 3 ldn va tiep luc ldng
tir ndm 2000 din nay (Xem them Bieu do 1)
Gia tang ddn sd nhanh Id mgt trong nhimg
nguyen nhdn Idm cho ngudi lao ddng ngdy
cang khd lim viec lam Irong khi nen kinh le
dang vua phdi dam bao tdng Irudng vira phdi
lien hdnh cai each ca cau kinh te Lao dgng
CO viec lam d Viel Nam trong linh vuc san
xudt chilm 80,6% nam 1996 vd 69,7% ndm
2011, cao hem ban so vdi nhieu qudc gia tren
thi gidi^, trong dd luc lugng Iao ddng trong
ndng nghiep van chiem ti Ie cao Tuy nhien,
ti le nay ciing dang gidm ddn do he qua cua
do thi hda va phat trien them cac khu cong
nghiep nudc ngoai Ket qud la ndng dan mdt
rudng dat, ra thdnh phd lam nhiing cdng viec
phd thong hoac lam cdng nhan d cdc khu
cdng nghiep mdi md (chiem 48,4% nam
2011, nam 2000 chi^m 65,3% tdng sd viec lam)^
Lao dpng cong nghiep: Sd Iugng lao
dgng trong sdn xudt cdng nghiep tuy thap hem so vdi Iao ddng trong ndng nghiep, nhung nlu so sanh cdu tnic viec Idm ndm
1996 va ndm 2011 se thdy ro la Viet Nam dang hudng tdi cdng nghiep hda va ngay cang xuat hien nhirng ddc diem ciia mgt nudc cdng nghiep hda Mdt bg phan dan cir ndng ddng ve kinh te dang chuyen sang san xudt cdng nghiep, xay dung , ITnh vuc chilm ldi 30,3% viec ldm nam 2011, mac dii ndm 1996 mdi chi chiem 19,4% Nhu vay 6 Viet Nam hien nay dang cd su chuyen dich
ca cau lao ddng O cac Ihanh phd ldn cua Viel Nam (nhu Ha Ngi, Hd Chi Minh va cac thdnh phd ldn khac) ca cdu viec Iam cd xu hudng mang ddc diem "hdu cdng nghiep" va cao ban d cdc vimg khdc cua ddi nudc Cung cdn khdng dinh la thdi gian gdn ddy chi
sd that nghiep d Viel Nam khdng cao (nam
2008 chilm 2,4% long sd siic lao dgng, con nam 2011 chi la 2%) Mac du dat hieu qua trong viec giam sd ngudi that nghiep, dSc biet trong viec phdt trien "tu tim kiem viec lam" d cdc thdnh phd, Viet Nam van la dat
^ The World bank, Vietnam, East Asia & Pacific
(developing only)
http://data.worldbank.0rg/country/vietna1n#cp_wd1,
^ Stalistical Yearbook for Asia and the Pacific 2011,
ESCAP, trang 222
* N^n kinh ti chuyen tir cong nghiep che biSn la try
cot sang dich vu lam try cpt, va tryc cong ngh$, tri thirc lam chii dao va cac chuyen gia lanh ngh^, ki thuat vien chi^m uu the Thuat ngCf "nfin kinh tS h?u cong nghifp" ve c o ban dong nghTa vdi thu§t ngO "doi
Trang 753
nudc cd nhu cau tim kiem viec ldm d nudc
ngodi kha cao Cue quan ly Lao ddng Viet
Nam d nudc ngodi, Bd Lao ddng - Thuong
binh va Xa hdi cho biel, nam 2013 cd 88.000
ngudi va chi lieu nam 2014 la se dua ban
90.000 ngudi di lam viec d nudc ngodi, tang
khodng 5.000 chi lieu so vdi ndm 2013 Nhu
v^y, ro rdng Viet Nam la qudc gia cd liem
nang di dan vd chCi yeu vi muc dich viec ldm
4 Di dan ciia Viet Nam ra nirdc ngoai
Cdc chuang trinh qudc gia giai quyet
viec lam tuy da Ihu dugc nhirng ket qua dang
khich le nhung van chua ddp ung dugc nhu
cau, trong khi do quy luat cung - cdu ve sue
lao dgng qu6c le, chenh lech ve sir phdi trien,
khoang each gidu ngheo, thu nhap giira
Viet Nam va cdc nudc khu vuc va the gidi la
nhirng nhdn td thiic ddy va ldi keo ngudi ddn
tim CO hgi mdi d nudc ngoai
Theo sd lieu Ihdng ke, hien cd khodng
hon 4 trieu ngudi Viel Nam dang dang sinh
s6ng, lam viec, hgc lap tai 103 qudc gia va
viing ldnh thd Trong dd, hon 80% d tai cac
nudc cdng nghiep phat trien; 3,2 trieu ngudi
CO quy che cu trii ddi ban; Iren 500.000
ngudi lao ddng lam viec cd thdi ban lai hon
40 nudc va viing ldnh tho; hang chuc nghin
hgc sinh, sinb vien, nghien cuu sinh, cgng
tdc vien dang hgc lap, tdm viec d nudc
ngoai; gdn 300.000 nghin, chii yeu la phu nir
kit hdn vdi ngudi nude ngodi; ngoai ra chua
kl din mgt so Iugng khdng nhd ngudi Viet
nan nhan ciia budn ban ngudi va cu dan cdc tinh gidp bien gidi di cu tu do sang cdc nudc ldng gieng Ndm 2010, mac dii chiu tdc dgng cua khung hodng kinh le nhung lugng kieu hdi do ngudi Viet Nam di cu gui ve nudc vdn dat khodng 8 li USD Nhirng qudc gia chinh ngudi di cu Viet Nam lira chgn Id: Hoa
Ky, Nhdt Ban, Australia, Canada, Campuehia, Anh, Thai Lan Dong di cu vdo Viet Nam khdng ldn so vdi ddng di cu ra nudc ngoai, nam 2010 la 69,3 nghin ngudi, trong dd CO 3,4% Id ngudi ti nan
Di cu tir Viet Nam vdo Nga da cd lich
sir lau ddi, ddc biel Id di cu lim viec ldm
Trong sd cac nudc cdeh xa Nga ve bien gidi, Viet Nam diing vi tri thu hai ve so ngudi nhdp cu vao Nga Theo so lieu, nam 2011, da
CO 3.294 ngudi Viel Nam nhdp cu vdo Nga' Klii nhap cdnh vdo Nga, cac cdng dan Viet Nam ghi vao td khai cua hdi quan Nga
cd 3 muc dich chinh: cd nhan, cdng viec vd
du lich Cong ddn Viet Nam nhap cdnh vao Nga vi muc dich cdng viec chiem uu the
(Xem them Bdng 4)
Tham luan ciia Cue Lanh sir, Bao cao long qiuiii
hoai dong di cir ciia cong dan Viel Nam ra nuac ngodi tai "Hpi nghi ve Di cu quoc le, xay dyng va
quan ly dii heu cho hoach dinh chinh sach", Ha NQI, ngay 0 1 - 0 2 / 6 / 2 0 1 1
Oejiepa.ribnaH TaMO/Keiuiaji cjiyjKGa, TaMuMcnnait
cinannicinuKa - Miwpanmbi UJ Bbcmiiana a fucciiio
Trang 854
Bdng 4: Co* cau dong ngirdi nhap cirvao Nga theo cac muc dich khac nhau tir 2007-2011 (%)
Muc dich nhap cir ^ /
v^o Nea ^ , , ,
^ / ^ Nam
''Cong tac
Du lich
Viec rieng
Nai thudng trii
Qua cdnh
Nhan vien phuc vu
Tong
Ngu-ffi nhap cu* tir Viet Nam vao Nga
2007
59,1
2,4 19,7
0,3 6,8 11,7
100,0
2008
63,8 1,9 18,2 0,2 6,5
9,4 100,0
2009
52,0 5,0 26,8 0,1 2,6 13,5
100,0
2010
52,1 10,2 26,1 0,1 0,1
11,4 100,0
2011
46,2
5,0
34,3 0,3
0,4
12,8
100,0
Ngu-ol nhap cir tir cac nuóC vao Nga
21,9
9,4
59,6 0,1 1,2
7,8 100,0
Ngudn: <E>ẹaepajibHaa TaMoaceHHaa cjiyscda, ToAtooiceHHaa cmamucmuKa - Muzpanmbi m
BbemHOMa e Poccujọ hllp://wwv/.cusloms.ru/ Tai ngay 25/8/2014
Cdc sd lieu dieu tra nam 2010 khang dinh
rdng, phdn ldn ngudi di cu tu Viet Nam
hudng tdi cac viing phia Tay ciia nudc Ngạ
Phan Idn tgc ngudi Viet Nam sinh sdng d
trung ldm nudc cgng hda (45%) va Iuu vuc
sdng Vonga (21%) Hien nay chua cd sd lieu
chinh xdc ve sd ngudi Viet Nam tai Ngạ
Theo cdc sd lieu dieu tra dan sd nam 2002,
tai Nga cd khodng 26 nghin ngudi Viet Nam
sinh sdng, cdn theo cdc so lieu dieu tra ndm
2010, con sd ndy gidm xudng cdn 14 nghin
ngudị Thuc le con sd ndy ldn han rat nhieụ
Theo đnh gid ciia chiing tdi, con sd ndy co
the ldi 100-150 nghin ngudị Hien nay, phdn
ldn ngudi Viet Nam sinh sdng va lam viec
lai Matxccrva, Stavropon, Bascorlopxtan,
Vongagrat, Xveriop, viing Khabarop vd mdt
sd vimg khac niia cua Ngạ C) thii đ cd cac
td bao va tap cbi xudl bdn bdng lieng Viet, cd
kenh truyen hinh ve linh ciia Viet Nam phdt
cdc chuang trinh đnh cho cdng đn Viel
Nam dang sinh sdng tai Ngạ Ngudi Viet
Nam chii yeu hgc tap, budn bdn, lam ndng
nghiep, dich vu nhd hang Vice ldm trong
ITnh vuc san xudt dang tang len Da phdn nhirng ngudi Viet Nam dang sdng va lam viec lai Nga den tir mien Bde Viet Nam Theo cdc sd lieu cua Cue Thdng ke Lien bang Nga (Rosstal), con sd ngudi di cu tir Viet Nam thudng tni tai Nga dao dgng tir vai chuc den vdi tram ngudi mdt nam, ngoai ra ciing cd the quan sdt thdy su gia tdng cda nhirng ngudi nhdp cu trai phep vao cdc nam
1997 vd 1998 Can phdi ndi rdng, su gia tdng đng nhap cu tir Viel Nam vao Nga da d^t ldi 921 ngudi nam 2009, 889 ngudi ndm
2010 Khoang 30.000 i cdng đn Viet Nam Iam viec bat hgp phap vd cd kha nang lam
viec bdt hgp phap d Nga (niu nhu khdng
khong nhdn dugc quota nhdp cu lao đng de dugc tiep tuc gia hgn hpp đng lao dpng, gidy phep lao dpng vd đng ky hp khdu theo gidy phep lao đng) Trong so 30.000 ngudi
din Nga cd khodng 10% vdo theo ldi mdi ciia Dai sii qudn Viet Nam lai Ngậ Ngu6i ' Thong bao bao chi FMS cua Nga /CoTpyjiHHK npecc-cjiy)K6hi OMC P<1>, MocKBa, icTBepr, 8
Trang 955
ViSt Nam di cu vao Nga chu yiu la ngucri di bang Nga, chiim 11,7% siic lao dong nuoc lao dpng Theo s6 lieu ciia FMS, nam 2010 ngoai Song, den nam 2011 chi con 10,9
da CO 46 nghin giay phep dugc cap cho cac nghin ngucri Viet Nam co giay phep Iao dong cong dan Viet Nam dSn lam viec tai Lien tai Nga, chiim 1,1% fXem//lera 5o;ig J /
Bang 5: So
Viet Nam
Trung Quoc
Tir cac nu'O'c khac
TSng
laang cong dan nu'O'c ngoai lam vice tai Nga cac nam 2000-2010
(nghin ngu&i)
2000
13,3
106,8
106,9
213,3
2005
55,6 343,7 358,7
702,5
2006
69,1 537,7 476,1
1.014,0
2007
79,8 1152,8 563,8
1.717,1
2008
95,2 1780,0 545,0
2.425,9
2009
97,5 1645,1 577,3
2.223,6
2010
46,0 1246,9 392,0
1.640,8
Nguon: OcAepantHaa MHrpauHOHnaji Cjiyacda Onmpbimbie danubie
htlp://www.fms.gov.ru/opendata/ Tai ngay 27.8.2014
Bdng 6: So sinh vien nudc ngoai theo hoc bac dai hoc d Nga
(tinh vdo ddu ndm hpc, nghin ngu&i)
Viet Nam
SGN, Baltic, Gruzia
Tong so sinh vi§n
nu'o'C ngoai
2007-2008
3,5 92,5
129,6
2008-2009
3,1
85,2
122,1
?009-2010 2,6 107,8
145,9
2010-2011 2,4 116,7
153,8
2011-2012 2,5 121,8
188,4
Ngudn: A Jl APEObEB, O 3 LUEPErM MnocmpauHbie cmydeumbi epoccuiiCKUX
(jyjax.LIeHTpa couHOJiorHHccKHx Hccjie^oBaHHid MMHodpnayKH, MocKsa, 2014 r
Ndm 2011, Viet Nam giiJ vi tri tbu tu viec di dan Ngay tir thai Lien Xo, viec di cu trong sd cdc nudc cd ngudi Iuu tni bat hgp vi muc dich bgc tap va lao dgng da dien ra phap vi muc dich lao dgng tai Nga, sau giira hai nudc Mac dii ti le (con sd) di cu tir Trung Qudc, CHDCND Trieu Tien vd Thd Viel Nam hien chua dugc thong ke, va Viet NhT Cdn ndm 2010, theo cdc sd lieu thong Nam ndm kha xa nudc Nga, nhung cac ddng
ke, Vi?t Nam dimg vi tri thii hai sau Trung di cu vdn tiep tuc dugc hinh thanh va quan Qudc Tuy v^y, ddi vdi Nga, Viet Nam van he qua lai irong ITnh vuc lao dgng va hgc tap
Trang 1056
Di cu vi muc dich hpc tap tir Viet Nam
den Nga Theo sd lieu ciia Bd Gido due va
Khoa hgc Lien bang Nga, nam 2011-2012,
sinh vien Viet Nam va Malaysia dimg vi tri thii
ba trong sd cdc nudc d each xa Nga den hgc
tap So sinh vien Viet Nam tai Nga khodng 2,5
nghin ngudi, chiem 6,8% so sinh vien den tir
cdc nudc Ndm 2010, sd sinh vien dugc nhdn
vao hgc tai cac trudng dai hgc d Nga tang ban
300 ngudi so vdi nam trudc Nhung nhin
chung, sinh vien Viel Nam tai Nga dang gidm
Nlu so vdi ndm 2007/2008, ndm 2011/2012 sd
sinh vien Viet Nam da gidm 1.000 ngudi
(Xem them Bdng 6)
Cd the ndi, qua trinh toan cau hda vd
bien ddi khi hdu Id nhdn td khach quan, gdp
phdn Ihiic ddy di cu, nhdp cu quoc te va Dd
Id mdt thuc te khdch quan vd khdng mdt
qudc gia binh thudng ndo cd the cudng lai,
trong do cd Viet Nam va LB Nga Vi vdy, ldt
cd cdc qudc gia cd di cu va cdc qudc gia co
ngudi nhap cu deu cd chinh sdch phii hgp de
ddm bdo ddt nudc minh khdng xao Iron hodc
bj lac dgng xdu den qua trinh phdt trien kinh
te - xa hdi Mat khdc, tat ca cdc qudc gia co
di cu va cdc quoc gia cd ngudi nhap cu neu
khong cd chinh sach diing dan thi khdng the
khong che dong ngudi di cu vd nlidp cu, dac
biel dong ngudi ay cd the lang Ien nhanh
chong dudi lac ddng xau cua bien ddi khi
hau Viet Nam Id 2 trong 5 qudc gia se chiu
dnh hudng ndng ne ve thien lai, bao lut vd
nudc bien dang cao nhu da ndi d tren Vi thi,
vi lgi ich ciia chinh Viet Nam cung nhu ciia
todn the cdng ddng the gidi, viec dua ra
nhtmg ddnh gia cdc hau qua do di ddn d at tir
cac tinh ven bien Viet Nam, dua ra cdc md
kinh te - xa hdi cd the xdy ra chinh la each tiep can nham cdnh bdo khimg hodng kinh te
- xa hdi cua cac viing lanh thd bi anh hudng ciia bien ddi khi hdu ciing nhu ngan chan hiem hga di dan ra nudc ngodi khdng mong mudn cd the xdy ra
T a i lieu t h a m k h a o chinh
1 POCCHHCKHHI CTaTHCTHHCCKHH eateroflHHK 2 0 1 2 : C j a r c d / P o c c T a i - M.,
2 0 1 1
2 T p y A H saHflTOCTb B P O C C H H 2 0 1 1 CraTHCTHHecKHii cSopHUK / Oe^iepajifcHafl cjiy)K6a rocy;iapcTBeHHOfl cxaTHCTHKH - M.,
2 0 1 1
3 ^HCJieHHOCTb H MHrpauHfl HacejieHHfl PoccHiicKOH O e a e p a u H H B 2 0 1 1 r o a y / Oe^iepajifcHaa cjiyacda rocyztapcTeeHHoil
C i a T H C T H K H - M , 2 0 1 2
4 CLA World Faclbook,
blips://www cia gov
5 Factbook 2012, OECD 2012
6 Migration and Remittances Factbook
201 J The Worid Bank 2011
7 Statistical Yearbook for Asia and the
Pacific 2011 United Nations Publication N°
E.11.II.F.1.-2011
8 World Population to 2300 United
Nations New York, 2004
9 Tham luan cua Cue Lanh su, Bdo cdo
long quan hogt ddng di cu cua cong ddn Viet
Nam ra nu&c ngodi tai "Hdi nghi v l Di cu
qudc le, xay dung va quan ly dir lieu cho hoach dinh chinh sach", Hd Ndi, ngay 01 -02/6/2011
10 Statistical Yearbook for Asia and the