Keywords: Human capital, economic growth, education, labor Tom tat Vdi muc dich ki^m chung vai tro ciia von con nguoi den tang trudng kinh td vung Duyen hai Nam Trung Bg DHNTB, nghie
Trang 1Vai tro cua von con ngircri
vol tang tru-ong kinh te vung duyen hai
Nam Trung Bo
H a T h i T h i £ u D a o Truong Dai hgc Ngan hang TP.HCM - daohtt@buh.edu.vn
Nguyen D a n g K h o a Tnrdng Cao dang Cgng dong Binh Thuan - nguyenkhoa.pt@btu.edu.vn
Ngay nhan:
12/12/2013
Ngay nhan lai;
24/01/2014
Ngav duyei dang:
12/05/2014
Ma so:
I2-13-S-06
Til' khoa:
V6n ci>ii ngirai tang trucmg
kinh le giao due chai
lugng lao dong
Keywords:
Human capital, economic
growth, education, labor
Tom tat
Vdi muc dich ki^m chung vai tro ciia von con nguoi den tang trudng kinh td vung Duyen hai Nam Trung Bg (DHNTB), nghien ciiu ap dung
mo hinh tang trudng tan co dien vdi ham san xuat Cobb-Douglas md rgng gom cac bien: San lugng, von vat chat, luc lugng lao dgng, von con ngudi va cac bien vT mo khac anh hudng den nen kinh te Nghien doan 2000-20! I Vdi mo hinh hieu irng co djnh, ket qua uoc lugng
cho thiy c6 anh hirong cua cac yeu to; Von vat chat, luc lugng lao
dgng, von con ngudi, ti trgng von FDI, ti trgng chi tieu ciia Chinh phii von con ngudi bang so nam di hgc binh quan ciia luc lugng lao dgng vdi hieu ung udc lugng gan 0.43% tren moi phan nam tang ihem cua
so nam di hgc binh qu3n
Abstract
To examine the role of human capital in economic growth in coastal provinces of Southern Central Vietnam (SCV) the research employs data from balance sheets of eight provinces in this region and a neoclassical growth model with an extended Cobb-Douglas production function including the following variables: output, capital, labor,, human capital and other macroeconomic variables that have fixed effect model show thai the economic growth is affected by capital, labor, human capital, FDI, public expenditure, and agricultural production Of these variable, the human capital is represented by averageschoolingyear of laborers with an estimated effect of nearly 0,43% per a one-percent increase in the average schooling year
Trang 21 DAT VANDE
Ve li thuyet, vdn con ngudi the hien ddng gdp vd chat lugng va sd lugng cua con ngudi vao tang trudng kinh td Tuy nhien, kdt qua nghien cuu thyc nghidm lai cho thay
su khdng thdng nhat trong kiem dinh mdi quan he giira vdn con ngudi va tang trudng kinh td UNDP (2011) xac dinh "Y te va giao due la chia khda de phat tridn con ngudi", tuy nhidn "nhirng tien bd vd y td va giao due khdng phai Iuc nao cting di kem vdi tang thu nhap" Permani (2009) cho rang cd mdi quan he nhan qua giira vdn con ngudi va tang trudng kinh te trong khi Leeuwen (2004) nhan dinh mdi quan he nay khdng ro rang Chinh vi vay Romer (1990) da canh bao vide giai thich mdi tucmg quan giira vdn con ngudi va tang trudng kinh td ddi hdi sy than trgng bdi Ie rat cd the tang trudng san lugng
va lang trudrig vdn con ngudi lac dgng lan nhau chu khdng phai la mdi quan he mdt chidu
Trong giai doan 2000-2011, vung DHNTB vdi tdc do tang trudng kinh td binh quan kha cao 11.7% so vdi tdc do tang irudng kinh td binh quan ca nudc la 7,11 % Ben canh
do Bda cdo dieu tra lao dong viec ldm (TCTK 2012) cho thay vung Bac Trung Bg va
Duyen hai mien Trung cd ti Id tham gia lao dgng kha cao chi xdp viing Trung du va midn nui phia Bac va Tay Nguydn Lieu cd mdi quan tuang quan duong giua vdn con ngudi
va tang trudng kinh td cua viing DHNTB - nai ganh chju nhieu thien tai nhat ca nudc hay khong? Nhdm nghien cuu ticn hanh kidm chirng nham phan tich vai trd ciia ydu td von con ngudi va cac.ydu td tang trudng khac ddi vdi tang trudng kinh td cac tinh thanh phd DHNTB giai doan 2000-2011 de tir dd cd nhii'ng giai phap dau tu, phat tridn cac yeu
td tang trudng mgt each hgp Ii gdp phan vao tang trudng kinh td ciia vung va ca nudc
2 VOIN CON NGUOI VA KHUNG PHAN TICH
Nhieu if thuyet va md hinh khang dinh vai trd cua vdn con ngudi ddi vdi tang trudng kinh td Li thuyet tang trudng tan cd didn vdi md hinh lang trudng Solow (1956) xem von con ngudi la yeu td dau vao ciia tang trudng kinh te Tuy nhidn vdn con ngudi d day la bien ngoai sinh va chi cht'i trgng ddn sd lugng Thuyet tang trudng ngi sinh ciia Mankiw & cgng su (1992) Lucas (1988) xem vdn con ngudi nhu la mgt yeu td tac dgng true tiep ddn tang irudng hoac gian tidp tac dgng den lang trudng thdng qua thay ddi cdng nghe nhu trong md hinh R&D ciia Romer (1990)
Vdn con ngirdi la mdt khai niem phiic tap bao ham nhirng kT nang tri thuc, kha nang lao dgng sue khde va nhirng gia tri con ngudi duge hinh thanh trong sudt cudc ddi ciia
Trang 3coi la ngudn tich luy ca ban nhk OECD (2001) dinh nghTa vdn con ngudi la "kien thuc,
kT nang, nang luc va nhiing thudc linh tidm lang trong moi ca nhan gdp phan tao ndn sy thjnh vugng kinh td, xahoi va ciia ban than ngudi ay'' Laroche (1999) cho rang vdn con ngudi cd cac dac trung: Vii'a mang tinh cong dong, vua mang linh ca bidt, vua chiia dyng
ca mat lugng lan mat chat va chua dyng ca nhung hieu irng ngoai sinh; vdn con ngudi khdng phai hang hda ndn khdng cd thi trudng cho phep mua ban tai san vdn con ngudi
va khdng phai luc nao eon ngudl cijng cd the kidm soat cac kenh va each thuc dd cd dugc
Vdn con ngudi la mdt khai nidm phuc tap ndn dugc do ludng bang nhidu each khac nhau Romer (1989) sir dung ti Id ngudi bidt dgc biet vidt d ngudi Irudng thanh Barro (1991) sir dung ti Id nhap hgc d bac tieu hgc; Mankiw & edng sy (1992) su dung ti Id nhap hgc d bae trung hgc ca sd Mulligan & Sala-i-Martin (1997) cho rSng "Irinh do ciia mdt ngudi lidn quan ddn muc tidn luong ma ngudi do nhan dugc tren thi Irudng" vi vay vdn con ngudl cho mdt nen kinh te dugc do bang thu nhap cua lao ddng; Barro & Lee (1993) sir dung sd nam di hgc binh quan cua luc lugng lao dgng va thudc do nay dugc
su dung rdng rai Irong nhieu nghidn cu'u Judson (1995) dd xuat lay chi phi giao due lam trgng sd de tinh mii'c vdn con ngudi cho mdi cap hgc
Mac dil cd su tranh luan vd vai trd vdn con ngudi trong tang trudng kinh Id cua cac qudc gia Nhung cac nghidn cuu thuc nghidm vd vai trd vdn con ngudi giiJa cac tinh, cac vung trong mdt qudc gia lai kha tuong ddng Lau & cgng su (1993), Cravo & Soukiazis (2009) cho rang can phai dau tu va phat tridn giao due trong dai han dd lir do thiic day tang trudng kinh te cac bang cua Brazil Theo Coulmbe & Tremblay (2001), giao due chinh la chia khoa dd tang trudng kinh td tai cac viing ciia Canada Ng & Leung (2004) nhan thay vide md rdng giao due dai hgc va cao dang, song song vdi viec nang cao chat lugng giao due bac phd thdng la giai phap phat trien kinh td cac tinh ciia Trung Qudc Nguyen Th; Tue Anh & Le Xuan Ba (2005), Tran Thg Dat & cgng sy (2007) cho rang dau tu va phat tridn khu vyc giao due la each kha thi dd nang cao tang irudng va phat tridn kinh te cac tinh cua VN Kel qua tuong tu cung dugc tim thay trong cac nghien ciru cua Martin & Herranz (2004), Permani (2008), Ll & Liang (2009), Vogi Vidyattama (2010)
Ben canh do, cac nha kinh td da tim kidm cac ydu td ngoai vdn con ngu'di quyet dinh ddn tang trudng kinh td trong sudt thdi gian dai nhu cac nghien cuu cua Barro (1991),
Trang 4tang tru'dng kinh td cd anh hudng ddn kinh te cac vimg, tinh cda mdt qudc gia nhu: (i) Vdn dau tu dai didn cho vdn vat chat cua mgt ndn kinh te cd lac dgng tich cyc ddn tang trudng kinh Id; (ii) Lyc lugng lao ddng la ydu td quan trgng khdng the thidu ddi vdi tang Irudng kinh Id Ydu td lao ddng vira the hien ca mat lugng la sd lugng lao ddng va mat chat dugc hieu la vdn con ngudi Sy gia lang luc lugng lao ddng se gdp phan tang trudng kinh te; (ill) Muc do hdi nhap kinh Id qudc te thudng do ludng bang ti trgng xuat nhap khau tren GDP Cac nghien ciru cho thay do md cira cua ndn kinh te tac ddng tich cyc den tang Irudng kinh id; (iv) Chi lidu ciia chinh phu vua phai se kich thich tang Irudng kinh te nhung neu chi tidu cua chinh phu vugt qua mirc gidi han se can trd tang trudng kinh td (Rahn, 1986); (v) Anh hudng cua cac doanh nghidp nha nudc (DNNN) Ng &
Leung (2004), Tvkn Thg Dal & cgng sy (2007) cho r^ng cac DNNN hoai dgng kinh te
ydu kem va didu dd ban che ddng gdp vao tang trudng kinh td; (vi) Ti trgng cua ndng nghidp Irong nen kinh td cd ddng gdp vao lang trudng kinh te giam dan Ng & Leung (2004) cho rang vide md rgng cac hoat dgng kinh Id phi ndng nghidp la budc quan irgng
dd phat trien kinh td
Vdl cac li thuyet va nghidn ciiu thuc nghidm tdm lugc d tren, nhdm tac gia dd xuat khung phan tich d Hinh 1; trong dd chu trgng nghien cuu tac ddng ciia vdn con ngudi ddn tang trudng kinh te va tac dgng ciia nhirng ydu td khac den tang trudng kinh td trong nghidn cuu nay dugc dd cap den vdl vai trd cua cac bidn kidm soat
3 MO HINH VA CAC BIEN NGHIEN CUU
Dya vao li thuyet va cac nghidn cuu trudc dac biet l a c u a N g & Leung (2004) nhdm tac gia dd xuat md hinh nghidn ciru vdi dang ham san xual Cobb-Douglas:
};, = A^Kf'-H^" Lf/ €^-'"••,2 = {F,G,SOE,ARG)
Trong dd: i la bieu thj tinh, thanh pho va t bidu thj thdi gian, Y„ la mirc san lugng,
Ao ia yeu td cdng nghd Ku la mu'c von vat chat Hi, la mii'c vdn con ngudl L,, la lao dong, Z la tap hgp cac bien sd anh hudng ddn san lugng phii hgp vdi ndn kinh td dang chuydn ddi Gom cd; Do md cira cua ndn kinh td trong nudc (F), sy can thiep cua chinh
Trang 5Von vat chat
Lao dpng
C • ^
Von con ngudi
Ti le ngudi bidt doc, biet vigt
So nSm di hgc binh quan
Chi phi cho giao due
Muc do hgi nhap
ngoai thuang
Chi tieu ciia chinh phii
Anh huong cua DNNN
Ti trong nong nghigp 1
Tang trudng kinh te
Hinh 1 Cac ycu td anh hudng den tang trudng kinh te
^i dp dung cae md hinh hdl quy trong nghien cuu, la lay logarit hai vd va chuydn vd
3 dang sau:
Md hinh he sd khdng thay ddi ~ Pooled OLS
b y;, = a + y?; In K„ + >9^ In //„ -H p, In L„
+ ^/ P„ + 'S',,G„ + ^SOESOE,, -1- 0„„-ARG„ + »„
Trong do: ff p va 0 la cac he so chda dyng hidu ii'ng cua cac bidn ngoai sinh va Uji
la so hang sal sd the hidn lac ddng ciia cac bidn bj bd qua
Md hinh hidu iing cd dinh - FEM
\nY,=a + a,+ fi^ In AT,, + p,^ In //„ + p, In i „
^e,.F,, +e,G„ +e^,„.soE„+e„,^-ARG,, +«„
Trong do; a la cac dai lugng cd dinh cua mdi linh bao ham dac trung ciia tinh Ihir i
(I)
(2)
Trang 6\nY.,=a-\-a+p^]nK, +p„\nH, + p,}n L,
+ ^FK + &GGU + OSOESOE, + d^^^ARG, +u, ^ '
Trong dd: a, la sai sd ngau nhidn theo dan vj khdng gian tuan theo quy luat phan
phdi chuan Vdi cac bien dugc md ta:
- Bidn phu thugc: Y la GDP eiia cac tinh, thanh phd theo gia so sanh nam 1994 va
dugc do bang don vi nghin ti VND
- Bien giai thich;
+ Bidn H (vdn con ngudi) Cac thudc do vdn con ngudl ddu cd nhtrng iru, nhugc
diem va phan anh cac khia canh khac nhau cua vdn con ngudi Tuy nhien, do nhirng khd
khan Irong thu thap du' lieu nen nhdm tac gia su dung sd nam dl hgc binh quan cua luc
lugng lao dgng de do ludng vdn con ngudl Thudc do nay cung dugc sir dung kha phd
bien Irong cac nghidn cu'u phan ti'ch tang Irudng kinh te cua cac khu vyc kinh te, cac
qudc gia trong do cd VN nhu Cravo & Soukiazis (2009), Tran Thg Dat & cdng su
(2007)
Nhdm tac gia phan lao dgng thanh 6 nhdm theo trinh do giao due dat dugc tucmg tu
nhu each phan nhdm cua Luat Giao due VN (2005); (i) Khdng cd trinh do (mil chii); (il)
Biet chir nhung chua hoan thanh bac tieu hgc; (iii) Da tot nghidp tidu hgc; (iv) Da tdt
nghidp trung hgc ea sd; (v) Da tdt nghidp trung hgc phd thdng; (vi) Cd trinh do cao dang,
dai hgc va sau dai hgc Sd nam di hgc binh quan dugc tinh cua lyc lugng lao ddng dugc
tinh trong cdng thuc 4
<j = i z ! L _ J = i _ (4)
Trong dd: S la sd nam di hgc binh quan ciia lyc lugng lao ddng, j la trinh do hgc van
d moi ckp bac, Tj la sd nam di hgc binh quan d mdi cap hgc, Lj la sd ngudi trong lyc
Trang 7Bang 1 Chi tiet tinh toan bien H Tnnh do Tj
Giai thich giao due (so nam)
, , , ^ Chi nhiiTie naudi trona Iuc luons Iao done chua ,
Mu chu ^- ni Z • => o c Q
tung den truong Chua hoan thanh bac tieu Chi nhung ngudi trong Iuc lugng Iao dgng biet
hgc doc bigt vigt nhung chua hgc xong b|c tigu hoc
Tot nghiep tieu hgc
Tot nghiep trung hgc ca sd
Chi nhung ngudi trong Iuc lugng Iao dgng da tot -nghiep tieu hpc va khong di hgc nua
Chi nhO'ng nguoi trong Iuc lugng lao dgng da tot nghiep trung hgc co sd va khong di hgc nua Tot nghigp trung hgc pho Chi nhung nguoi trong Iuc lugng lao dgng da tot
thong nghiep trung hgc pho thong va khong di hgc nua
^ ; :L ^ Chi nhiing ngudi trone luc luong lao done da tot
Tot nghiep cao dang, dai ^ R * -? ' ' , r ^ V " ,
5 , * , " • nghiep cao dang, dai hoc va nhune tnnh do cao 4
hoc va sau dai hoc , o o
hon
+ Bidn K (vdn vat chat) dugc udc tinh bang cdng thuc : K^ ={\ — (5)Ar„| + /, vdi It
la vdn dau tu hang nam va 5 la ti Id khau hao Do khdng du sd lidu cua cac tinh, thanh
phd trudc nam 1996, nen nhdm tac gia su dung GDP nam 1996 thay cho vdn vat chat
ban dau Ko Day cung la nhan dinh cua Tran Thg Dat & cgng sy (2007) De dan gian, li
Id khau hao dugc gia djnh d muc 5 - 5 % Dd ciing la ti Id khau hao dugc sii' dung trong
nghien ciru cua Ng & Leung (2004), Tran Thg Dat & cgng sy (2007), Whalley & Zhao
(2010)
+ Bien L (lao dgng) dugc tinh bang sd ngudi Irong dan sd hoat dgng kinh td khong
phan biet tinh trang vide lam (Lau & cgng sy, 1993) Nghien ciru do ludng lyc lugng lao
dgng.eua mdi tinh, thanh phd bang tdng dan sd boat dgng kinh td cua tinh, thanh pho bat
ke tinh trang vide lam nhu thd nao gidng nhu djnh nghTa dugc Bg Lao dgng, Thuang
binh & Xa hgi de cap
+ Bidn F (do md cua cua ndn kinh td) dugc do bang ti trgng vdn FDI trong tdng von
dau tu Ng & Leung (2004) cho rang do md cua cua ndn kinh te trong nude gdp phan
nang cao trinh do cdng nghd thdng qua vide thue day cae ddng nhap khau kT thuat va
cdng nghd tien tidn cdng nhu kinh nghidm quan li cua nudc ngoai vao ndn kinh te trong
Trang 8Nguydn Thi Tud Anh & cdng su (2006), Tran Thg Dat & cdng su (2007) cung su dung chi tieu nay
+ Bien G (sy can thiep cua chinh phu) dugc ttnh bSng ti trgng chi lidu ciia chinh phii
so vdl GDP Tac ddng cua chi tieu cua chinh phu ddn lang irudng kinh Id ihdng thudng
cd quan he ducmg Nhung Barro (1997) cho ring sy ean thiep cua chinh phii se dan den meo md thi trudng va can trd tidn bg cdng nghe Theo Rahn (1986), gia tang chi tidu ciia chinh phtJ cd thd se can trd tang trudng neu chi tidu cua chinh phu vugt qua muc gidi ban Tuy nhidn, mdt sd nghidn cuu tai VN nhu Pham Thd Anh (2008), Hoang Thi Chinh Thon & cdng su (2010) cho thay he sd G am (-) Vi vay nghien cuu ki vgng mdi quan
he am (-) giu'a G va tang trudng kinh te
+ Bidn SOE (anh hudng cua DNNN) dugc tinh bang li trgng gia tri cdng nghidp ciia DNNN trong gia trj cdng nghidp Tran Thg Dat & cdng su (2007) cho ring cac DNNN
cd the khdng nhanh nhay trong vide lan dung tien bd cdng nghd kT thuat tham chi cdn gap nhidu khd khan trong qua trinh chuydn ddi sang co chd thj trudng d VN Word Bank (2012) nhan xet cac DNNN VN su dung nhieu ngudn lyc nhung lai kem hidu qua nhal, Dieu do the hien qua hidu suat vdn: Nam 2000 ti Id doanh thu/vdn trung binh cua cac DNNN la 1,6 so vdi 8,8 cua loan bg khu vyc doanh nghiep, khoang each nay gia tang theo thai gian, nam 2009 ti Id nay lan lugt la 1,1; 21,0 Do vay, nghien ciru ki vgng mdi quan he am (-) glii'a SOE va tang trudng kinh td Dd ciing la nhan djnh chung cua Ng & Leung (2004), Tran Thg Dat & edng sy (2007)
+ Bidn ARG (vai trd ciia san xuat ndng nghiep trong nen kinh td) dugc tinh bang tl trgng cua nhdm nganh ndng, lam nghiep va thuy san so vdl GDP Ng & Leung (2004), cho rSng cac tinh, thanh phd dua nhidu vao san xuat ndng nghiep it cd ca hdi gia tang nang suSt han cac tinh dua vao san xuat cdng nghidp Tran Thg Dat & cgng su (2007) cung cho bidt giam ti trgng nganh ndng nghidp trong GDP se thiic day lang trudng kinh
te cac tinh, thanh phd Nghien cuu ki vgng mdi quan he am (-) giiJa ARG va tang trudng kinh te
4 PHU01\G PHAP NGHIEN CUV
Dd tai su dung thiet kd nghien cuu djnh lugng vdi sy hd trg cua phan mdm Stata 11
dd phan tieh mdi quan he cua vdn eon ngudi va tang Irudng kinh te cac tinh, thanh phd DHNTB gial doan 2000-2011 DiJ lieu dugc sir dung la bang can ddi (Balanced Panel Data) cua 8 tinh, thanh phd DHNTB glal doan 2000-2011 dugc tdng hgp tii' sd lieu cua
Trang 9dau tu, chi tidu ngan sach eua dja phuong; gia tri cdng nghidp phan theo hinh thuc sd hiru theo gia so sanh nam 1994) va Bd Lao dgng, Thuong binh va Xa hgi (Sd dan boat
ddng kinh te va phan theo trinh do giao due) giai doan 2000-2011
5 KET QUA NGHIEN CUU & THAO LUAN
5.1 Phan tich thong ke, md ta cac bien trong md hinh
Bang 2 Thdng ke mo ta cac bien trong mo hmh nghien ciru
^^ Gia tri Gi^ tri Gia tri Gi^ tri D6 lech Bo Dfi quan ' " , • i '- • - u
• f trung binh trung vj Ion nhat nho nhat cnuan nghieng nnon
Y 96 5290,44 4607.888 13370,36 1252,342 2947,537 0,8102 2,9068
K 96 7224,635 6041,463 19708,64 1475,895 4123,153 0,8619 3,1121
L 96 536990 545357,5 852900 216847 180974,4 -0,1237 1,8820
H 96 6,7652 6,4454 9,6300 5,5772 1,1012 1,5900 4,5316
F 96 0,0671 0,04 0.35 0 0,0666 1,6650 6,1693
G 96 0.2592 0.235 0,5 0,13 0,0895 0,8580 3,0733 SOE 96 0,3917 0,37 0.91 0,09 0.1969 0.2631 2,3276 ARG 96 0,2943 0,32 0,52 0,03 0,1285 -0,5818 2,4212
Nguon: Ket qua phan tich ttr phan mem Stata 11
Bang 2 cho thay eac bidn Y, K, L, G, SOE va ARG cd gia tri trung binh va gia tri trung vi chenh lech khdng ldn, gia trj he sd do nghieng va do nhgn cua sd lieu phan phdl kha deu va tap trung Didu nay the hidn sy lang Irudng kha ddng deu cua cac linh thanh phd DHNTB Tuy nhien, kdt qua cung cho thay cd su chenh lech kha ldn giira gia tri nho nhal va cao nhat ciia cac bien trdn; cd sy chenh lech trong chi lieu ngan sach va ti trgng ciia ndng nghiep trong GDP giu'a cac tinh, thanh phd Dang chu y la sy chdnh lech kha ldn trong ddng gdp gia trj cdng nghiep cua DNNN trong gia trj cdng nghidp (SOE) giua cac linh thanh phd Quang Ngai cd gia trj SOE cao nhal ldn den 9 1 % nhd khu lgc dau Dung Quat so vdi Binh Dinh thap nhat la 9%
Cac gia tri ciia bidn H trong Bang 2 cho thay sd lieu thd hidn phan phdi Idch phai va
Trang 10muc vdn con ngudl cua da sd cac tinh, thanh phd cao hem muc vdn con ngudi binh quan cua viing va cd su chech idch Idn ve muc vdn con ngudi gid'a cac tinh cao va thap Bidn F cd sy chdnh lech kha ldn giiia gia tri Idn nhit la 35% (Phu Ydn) va gia tr; nhd nhat la 0% (Binh Thuan) Vdi cac gia tri trung binh va gia tri trung vj gan bang nhau, gia tri do nghidng va gia trj dd ddc phan phoi Idch phai; muc dd tap trung cua cac sd lieu
cd dang da giac kha nhgn vdl hal dudi hep, cho thay cd sy chenh Idch kha ldn vd thu hut vdn dau tu FDI giua eae tinh thanh phd
Bang 3 Ma tran tuong quan cac bien trong md hinh nghien ciiu
K
L
H
F
G
SOE
ARC
0.9444
0,4329
0.4949
0,1363
-0,2652
-0,2785
-0,701
1
0,3708
0,5181
0,1457
-0,1630
-0,2761
-0,6992
1 -0,1629 -0,0501 -0,4283 -0,5048 0,0316
1 0,1676 0.0487 0.2054 -0.8187
1 0.1516 -0.171 -0.2535
1 0,1009 0,1043
Ngudn: Kh qua phan tich tu- phan niem Stata 11
Bang 3 cho thay khong co hien tirtjng da cgng tuyen giira cac bien Trong do, bien Y th^ hien moi quan he thuan rat cao doi vai bien K do each tinh gia tri K Dang chu y, biin Y CO m6i tuong quan nghich cao voi bien ARG, chi ra viec giain ti trong nong nghiep co thS se gia tang tang truang Itinh te Bien L va H the hien inoi tuang quan tuyen tinh thuan vtJi bien phu thuoc Y vai he so r lan lugt la 0,4329 va 0,3708, xac nhan co m6i quan he giua so lugng va trinh do hgc van ctia lire lugng lao dgng vol tang tru'ong kinh te, Tuy nhien, m6i quan he giua L va H co moi tuang quan nghjch rSt yeu vai
r = -0,1629 ham y ring khong CO inoi quan he ro rang giua so lugng va chat lugng ciia