La Khu vuc mau dich ty do AFTA, ma dinh cao la mdt thanh vign ciia khdi ASEAN, Viet Nam se phai thanh lap Cdng ddng kinh tg ASEAN vao nam 2015, canh tranh mpt each true dien vdi cac qudc
Trang 1KIEM SOAT THAM NHIING VA THU HUT DAU TU"
TRUC T I P NUdC NGOAI TAI ASEAN: MOT TIEP CAN THUC NGHIEM
Nguyen Qu6c Tram
5a Ngoai vu tinh Khdnh Hoa
Email: tramnguyenquoc2015@gmail.com
Hoang Hong HJep
Vien Khoa hoc xd hgi vitng Trung Bo (ISSCR) - Viin Han lam Khoa hgc xd hgi Viet Nam
Email: Hoanghongkiep@gmail.com
Ngay nhan: 19/4/2017
Ngay nhan ban sua: 17/7/2017
Ngay duyet dang: 25/10/2017
Torn tSt:
Sii- dung cdc mo hinh kinh ti lugng nghien ciru ndy kiem tra vai trd cua viec kiim sodt tham nhiing trong thu hut dong von ddu tu true tiip nuac ngodi tai cdc quoc gia ASEAN trong giai doan
1998-2013 Kit qud uac luang chi ra rdng sau khi kiem sodt cdc nhdn to ve quy mo thi truang, su on dinh kinh ti vT mo chdt lugng ca sa hg tdng vd ty le lai sudt thtfc chung toi da tim thdy bang chimg y nghia rdng, quoc gia Idem sodt tot tham nhiing co thi gop phdn thu hiit manh me dong von ddu tu true tiep nuoc ngodi Nhiing kit qud thuc nghiem ndy cho phep chung toi gai md" mot
so khuyin nghi chinh sdch nhdm giiip Viit Nam ddy manh thu hiit FDI trong boi canh hgi nhdp kinh ti khu -vuc
Tir khoa : FDI, ASEAN, Cac nhan td, dir lieu bang, nhan td, tham nhiing, thg chg
Corruption control and foreign direct investment in ASEAN: An empirical approach
Abstract:
Using econometric models, this article examines the role of corruption control in attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) in ASEAN countries over the period 1998 to 2013 The empirical results indicate that after controlling for factors of market size, macroeconomic stability, infrastructure quality, and real interest rates, good control of corruption can help the host country attract more foreign direct investment The empirical results allow us to suggest some policy recommendations for Vietnam government aiming at attracting FDI in the context of regional economic integration Keywords: Foreign direct investment; ASEAN; panel; determinants: corruption; institutions
1 Dat v^n de trong tuong quan so sdnh vdi cdc nen kinh te khdc Hgi nhap kinh td giua cdc qudc gia npi khdi tai Chdu A (nhu Trung Qudc, An Dp, Nhat Ban, ASEAN thdng qua Higp dinh diu tu viing (AIA), Han Qudc, ) trong lua chpn dia didm dau tu La Khu vuc mau dich ty do (AFTA), ma dinh cao la mdt thanh vign ciia khdi ASEAN, Viet Nam se phai thanh lap Cdng ddng kinh tg ASEAN vao nam 2015, canh tranh mpt each true dien vdi cac qudc gia thanh
da din hinh thanh mdt thi trudng lign qudc gia va vign trong thu hiit diu tu true tidp nude ngoai (FDI)
mdt trung tam san xuit mang tinh xuyen vung Do Be chinh sdch thu hut FDI ciia Vigt Nam dat dugc
vay, cdc nha diu tu qudc tg ludn xem ASEAN nhu thdnh cdng trong bdi canh canh tranh do, cdn thigt
la mdt diem din thdng nhdt (vdi gin 600 trigu dan) phai nhan dien nhirng nhan td ca ban anh hudng
Trang 2FDI vao ASEAN kd tii sau cudc khiing hodng tai
chinh chau A, nhit la cin thiit thyc hien kiim dinh
sy anh hudng cda viec kiim soat tdt tham nhiing
trong canh tranh thu hut FDI giua cdc qudc gia ndi
viing Diiu nay hit siic quan trpng va can thigt trong
bdi canh Thu tudng Chinh phu Nguygn Xuan Phiic
dang quyit liet nd lye xay dung "Chinh phu kiin tao
phdt triin Hem chinh, hdnh dgng quyet Hit, phifc v(/
Nhdn ddn "
Thuc tg, cd rat it cdng trinh thuc nghiem nghien
ciiu vai trd cua the chg qudc gia ddi vdi thu hut FDI
vao khu vyc ASEAN Ismail (2009) da su dyng mdt
md hinh luc hap dan (Gravity Model) dg nhan dien
nhiing nhan td cua ddng vdn FDI tu 18 qudc gia xuat
khau vdn chay vao 9 qudc gia thanh vien ASEAN
trong giai doan 1995-2003 Kgt qua udc lugng cho
thay, quy md thi trudng ciia qudc gia chii nhd va qudc
gia xuat khau vdn, chdt lupng co sd ha tang, chinh
sach thuong mai, lam phat thap, ngan sach can bang
la nhiing ygu td anh hudng y nghia din thu hut FDI
Lign quan ddn nhdn td the chg, tac gia da tim thiy
vai trd y nghia cua tinh minh bach qudc gia trong
thu hiit ddng vdn FDI tai khu vyc ASEAN Masron
& Abdullah (2010) da nghign cuu anh hudng ciia
chit luang thi chi ddi vdi ddng FDI vao ASEAN
trong giai doan 1996-2008 Cdc tdc gia da sir dung
chi sd mdi trudng the chi tdng hpp dupe do ludng
tix 6 thanh phan edu thanh (World Bank's Worldwide
Governance Indicators) Cdc kit qua thuc nghigm tir
phuang phap udc lupng dir lieu bang truygn thdng
cho thay, viec cai thign chit lupng thi chi da ddng
vai trd rit quan trgng trong thu hiit FDI vao khu vyc
nay Bgn canh do, cac tdc gia cung da tim thiy tdc
ddng tich eye cua quy md thi trudng, vdn con ngudi,
vd dg md kinh ti ddi vdi thu hiit cdc ddng vdn FDI
vao ASEAN Su dung cac phuang phdp binh phucmg
be nhit md rdng khd thi (Feasible Generalised Least
Square-FGLS), Sii dung phucmg phdp udc luong
FGLS (Feasible Generalised Least Square), Hoang
Hdng Hiep (2011) nhan dien cac nhan td cua ddng
FDI vao 6 quic gia ASEAN trong giai doan
1991-2009 Cdc kit qua udc tupng chi ra ring, quy md thi
trudng, dp md ngoai thuang, ca sd ha ting, vdn con
ngudi, nang suit lao ddng, ty gid hdi dodi, lai suit
fliyc, rui ro chinh hi, va chit luong thi che tai qudc
gia chd nhd Id nhung nhan td tdc ddng y nghTa din
thu hiit FDI Ngodi ra, lao ddng gid re khdng giup
qudc gia chii nha thu hiit FDI, ma thuc ti cdc nha
Nhin chung, nhiing cdng trinh nghien cuu fhyc nghiem tren da lugng hda dupe mdt sd nhan td quan trpng CO anh hudng din su dinh vi cua ddng vdn FDI tai khu vuc ASEAN Tuy nhien, cac nghign cihi nay cdn tdn tai mdt sd ban chg nhat dinh vi phuang phdp nghign ciiu va each tiep can Nghign cuu ciia Ismail (2009) sir dung md hinh Gravity dua tren gid dinh v6 tinh dgc lap trong thuong m^i giua cdc qudc gia chu nha, song gid dinh ndy Id khd yeu khi md ASEAN
da bmh thdnh khu vtrc mau dich ty do vdi su luan chuyen hang hda giiia cdc qudc gia ndi khdi diln
ra mpt each manh me Han niia dii hgu nghign cihi thudc giai doan 1995-2003 la khd each xa so vdi thdi digm hien tai, do vay tinh cdp nhat ciia dii ligu khdng cao Nghign ciiu ciia Masron & Abdullah (2010) chi sii dyng cac phuang phap udc lupng truyen thing cho dii ligu bdng (Md hinh cdc tdc ddng cd dinh
-FEM, va md hinh cac tac ddng ngdu nhign - REM)
de udc lupng cdc nhan td dnh hudng nen tinh viing manh cua cac kgt qua udc lupng khdng cao, do cac phucmg phdp ndy khdng dii tin cay trong trudng hgp
sd dan vi cheo trong dCr lieu bdng (sd qudc gia chu nhd) khd it Tuong tu, Hodng Hdng Hiep (2011) chi nghign ciru cho sdu qudc gia ASEAN (6 dan vi ch6o) trong khi bd dir lieu thdi gian qua dai (1991-2009) ngn cdc ket qua udc lupng cd the bi thien Idch Dac biet, cdc nghign cuu trdn chi dg cap din chit lupng thg che, chua dd cap chuygn sdu din kigm dinh vai trd cua kiem soat tham nhiing trong thu hiit FDI giiia cdc qudc gia ASEAN
Su dyng nhigu phuang phdp udc lupng khac nhau cho dii lieu bang, nghien cuu nay lupng hoa nhirng nhdn td dnh hudng ddn sy dinh vi cua ddng vdn FDI tai khu vuc ASEAN giai doan 1998-2013, trong dd tap trung kiem dinh vai trd cua viec kiem soat tham nhung ddi vdi thu hut FDI Nhimg kit qua thuc nghiem ciia nghign cuu ndy se Id ca sd khoa hpc quan trpng di gpi md mpt sd ham y chinh sdch ddi vdi Viet Nam trong bdi canh canh tranh thu hut FDI giira cac qudc gia trong khu virc dang dien ra mpt each gay gat td sau cudc khiing hodng tdi chinh chau A nam 1997 Phdn cdn lai cua nghign cim dupe
td chiic nhu sau: Phdn 2 trinh bay tiip cdn ly thuyet
vi dnh hudng ciia tham nhung ddi vdi thu hut FDI, phan 3 gidi thieu md hinh kinh td lugng va sir md td bien, phan 4 trinh bay phuang phap vd kdt qud udc lugng, vd phdn 5 trinh bay ket luan chung va di xuit mdt sd ham y chinh sdch cho Viet Nam
So 245 thdng 11/2017 32 kjnhlej'liatlrien
Trang 3mpt tiep can ly thuyet
Tir nhiing nam 1990, su gia tang ddng vdn FDI
vao cdc qudc gia dang phdt triin da thuc diy mdt
loat cac cdng trinh nghien ciiu tap trung vao nhan
dien cac yiu td dnh hudng din ddng vdn FDI Gdn
day, muc dp tham nhiing d qudc gia tigp nhdn (hay
cdn gpi Id qudc gia chu nhd - Host Country) ciing
ddn duac xem xet nhu la mdt nhan td quan trpng
trong canh tranh thu hut FDI Theo Td chiic Minh
bach qudc tg, tham nhiing la viec lam dyng quygn
luc dupe iiy thac dd phyc vy lpi ich ca nhdn (xem
them Nguygn Qudc Viet & Chu Thi Nhudng, 2012)
Ve ca ban, tham nhung gan vdi FDI cd thi dupe
xem la cac khodn tign hdi Id ma nhd ddu tu nude
ngoai phdi chi trd true tiep hoac gidn tigp cho cac
can bp cdng quyen ciia qudc gia tiep nhan de nhdn
dupe su <aru di» trong cdp phep dau tu, cap phep
xay dyng, dang ky kinh doanh, uu dai thui, tiip can
dat dai, tien thug dat, cac uu dai tdi chinh va phi
tdi chinh khac, Trgn phuemg dien ly thuyet, tham
nhiing cd the dnh hudng dgn quyet dmh lya chgn dia
diem ddu tu cita nhd ddu tu nude ngodi trgn hai gia
thuyet sau:
Gid thuyet I: Tham nhiing co dnh huang tieu cue
din thu hiit FDI vdo nuac chu nhd
Ddu tien, tham nhiing cd the lam gia tang chi phi
dau tu, khien lpi nhuan dy kien cua nhd ddu tu nude
ngoai cd the bi suy gidm Ndi cdch khdc, tham nhiing
ndi chung dupe xem nhu la mgt loai thue danh vao
lpi nhuan ciia nha ddu tu (Bardhan, 1997) Digu dd
cd thg khign nhd ddu tu nude ngoai cdn nhac lya
chpn qudc gia chu nhd cd muc dp tham nhiing thap
hon dg tdi thieu hda chi phi khdng chinh thiic phat
sinh bdi hdnh vi tham nhiing Mac khdc, tham nhiing
cung cd the lam gia tang su khdng chac chan ciia
mdi trudng ddu tu, lam gia tang riii ro ddi vdi hoat
ddng diu tu do bdnh vi tham nhiing Id hdnh vi trdi
phdp luat, va nhiing cam kgt gan vdi hdnh vi tham
nhiing khdng dupe phdp luat thiia nhan Dieu nay
khiin mdi trudng ddu tu trd ngn khd doan dinh, gay
dnh bupng din kg hoach kinh doanh trung va dai han
cua nhd diu tu Nhu vay, d each tiip c^n nay, miic
dd tham nhiing cao d qudc gia chu nhd cd thg tac
ddng tigu cue dgn ddng FDI vao qudc gia dd
Gid thuyit 2: Tham nhiing co dnh huang tich cue
din thu hiit FDI vdo nuac chit nhd
Thuc tign tai mpt sd qudc gia dang phdt trien va
the che cdn chua hoan chinh, thigu minh bach vd thieu tinh dn dinh, nhit la the chi phi chinh thiic cdn chiem vai trd khd quan trpng trong diiu tiit cdc boat ddng ciia ndn kinh te (Mayer, 2001), vdn cd the tdn tai hieu ling dnh hudng tich cue cua tham nhiing ddi ddng vdn FDI Dieu nay dugc luan gidi rang, trong sy hien dien cila nhiing quy dinh, thu tuc hanh chinh Cling nhac, quan lieu, rudm ra, phiic tap, vdi tiem lye tai chinh manh ban so vdi cac doanh nghiep ndi dia, nha ddu tu nude ngodi cd thg sii dung tham nhung nhu Id cdng cy "bdi tron" hihi hieu de tang tdc cdc qua trinh ra quyet dinh ciia co quan cdng quyen (Bardhan 1997), "di dgm" de thu dupe cdc hop ddng kinh tg do cdc co quan cdng quygn lam chu ddu tu, thu nhiing dac lpi Idn hon rit nhieu muc chi phi khdng chinh thirc bd ra cho tham thiing, Ci khia canh ndy, trong mgt chimg myc nao day, qudc gia cd miic tham nhiing cao ciing c6 thi thu hiit mpt
bp phan cac nha dau tu nude ngodi "thdng minh" den dau tu
3 Md hinh kinh tl lucmg va md ta bien Nghign ciru nay su dung mdt cau tnic du lieu bdng (panel data) gdm tdm qudc gia ASEAN' (Viet Nam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thai Lan, Ldo, vd Campuchia) trong giai doan tir sau cudc khung hoang tai chinh cbdu A (1998-2013) De
do ludng bign phu thupc, chiing tdi lay logarit cua 1 cdng vdi FDI (inflows) vdo mdi qudc gia hang nam, dieu ndy cd the giup chung tdi lam tran dii ligu ciing nhu dam bao nhirng quan sat bang khdng khi Idy logarit Md hinh udc lupng dupe xdc dinh nhu sau : Ln(l+FDI,) a, + P.CONTROL CORRUITION, + Other Controls (MARKET,,, INFLATION,^, INFRASTRUCTURE,,,, INTEREST,) + e„(l) Trong dd, chung tdi su dung i dg md ta cho cac qudc gia vd t cho dan vi thdi gian Cac bign gidi thich trong phuemg trinh (1) dupe md td nhu sau' Kiem soat tham nhung cua quoc gia tiep nhan (CONTROL_CORRUPTION): Phdn dnh miic dp kiem soat tham nhung ciia qudc gia tiep nhan Du lieu bien kigm soat tham nhiing cua qudc gia chii nhd dugc thu thap tit WGI 2014 (World Governance Indicators) ciia Ngdn hdng The gidi (World Bank),
cd gia tri tir -2,5 den 2,5, phan anh chidu kigm soat tham nhung tir xdu nhdt (-2.5) den tdt nhat (2,5) Chiing tdi ky vpng mdt mdi quan he tuang quan duong giira kiem soat tham nhung va ddng vdn FDI
S3 245 thdng 11/2017 kinlttAl trien
Trang 4(MARKET): Phdn dnh nhiing diiu kien kinh ti ciia
qudc gia chii nhd vd ddng thdi ciing phdn dnh quy
md edu hdng hda tiim nang ddi vdi dy dn ddu tu
nude ngoai Nhd ddu tu nude ngoai cd thg bi hdp
ddn bdi quy md thi trudng cCia qudc gia tigp nhdn
khi nha diu tu mudn thiic day luong hang hda ban
ra tai thi trudng dd Tim quan trpng cua quy md thi
trudng ddi vdi ddng vdn FDI da dupe tim thay d cdc
cdng trinh nghien ciiu thuc nghiem cua Schneider
& Frey (1985), Wheeler & Mody (1992), Hattari &
cdng su (2008), Rojid & cdng sy (2009), Mottaleb
& Kalirajan (2010) Dd do ludng quy md thi trudng
nude tiep nhan, chung tdi sii dyng logarit cua tdng
san phdm qudc ndi (GDP)
Lam phat tai quoc gia tiep nhan (INFLATION):
Phdn dnh tinh dn dinh kinh tg vT md cua ngn kinh tg
Sy dn dmh kmh te vi md cd the lam gidm ddng ke
tinh nii ro ciia mdi trudng dau tu, lam gia tang Idng
tin cua nhd ddu tu ddi vdi ngn kinh tg O phuang
dign nay, ty le lam phat cao cd the ban che ddng vdn
FDI do nen kinh te hdm chiia nhieu bdt dn, rui ro
ddi vdi boat ddng ddu tu Schneider & Frey (1985),
Kinda (2008) da tim thdy tdc ddng nghich chigu giiia
lam phdt va ddng vdn FDI Trong nghign ciru nay,
chiing tdi su dyng chi sd gid tieu dung (CPI) di do
ludng lam phat cua ngn kmh tg
Su phat trien cua ca sd ha ting
(INFRASTRUCTURE): Gdp phin gia tang higu
suit cua boat dpng ddu tu thdng qua vigc cung cip
cac dich vu ha ting chdt lugng phuc vu hoat ddng
sdn xudt, phdn phii, luu thdng Wheeler & Mody
(1992), Asiedu (2002), Imad & Duly (2006), Kinda
(2008), da tim thdy bang chiing thuc nghiem rdng,
sy phdt tnen cua ca sd ha tdng cd tdc ddng tich cue
dgn ddng vdn FDI Chiing tdi sit dyng chi sd tdng sd
dien thoai cd djnh vd di ddng trgn 100 ddn dg md td
tdi ky vpng mdt mdi quan he tuemg quan duang giiia
sy phdt trien ca sd ha tdng vd ddng FDI Lai suit tai qudc gia tiip nhdn (INTEREST):
Phdn anh chi phi vdn khi nha ddu tu true tiip hojc gian tiep vay muon vdn tai qudc gia chii nhd, ddy cung chinh Id chi phi ddu vao ciia ho?t ddng diu tu Mdt ty le Hi suat thdp cd the Idi cudn nhd ddu tu gia tang nguon vdn vay de tai trp cho hoat ddng ddu tu, tdi diu tu ciia minh Do vay, chinh sdch lai suit ciing
la mdt cdng cu quan h-gng trong thu hut FDI Beer
& Cory (1996) da tim thdy rang, su khdc biet lai sudt giiia qudc gia tigp nhan vd Hoa Ky cd mdi tuong quan dm vdi ddng vdn FDI tir Hoa Ky vao khu virc
EU Ngupc lai, Cevis & Qamurdan (2007) tun thdy
mdt mdi quan hg tuang quan duong giiia ty le lai suit thuc vdi ddng vdn FDI vao cac qudc gia dang phat trign vd cdc nen kinh te dang trong qua trinh chuygn ddi, Chiing tdi sit dyng ty le lai sudt thuc de phdn dnh bien lai suat tai qudc gia chu nhd, chiing tdi ky vpng mdt mdi quan he tuemg quan dm giiia lai sudt thuc vd ddng vdn FDI
Dir lieu ve FDI (inflows) dugc thu thdp tir ca quan thdng ke ciia UNCTAD; Dii lidu ve kiim soat tham nhung dupe thu thdp tir The World Governance Indicators (WGI) cua Ngdn hdng Thi gidi (World Bank) Cac ngudn sd lieu khac dupe thu thdp tir The World Development Indicator (WDI) cua Ngan hang thg gidi, Cac tri sd thdng ke co ban ciia cac bign dugc md td d bdng 1
4 Phuang phap, thu tuc va kit qua udc luong
Nghign cim ndy su dung mdt dii ligu bang (panel data) gdm tam qudc gia thdnh vien ASEAN, trong giai doan 1998-2013 Vg msit ky thuat kinh
tg lupng, dii lieu bang cd thd tdn tai cdc tac dpng nhdm, cdc tdc ddng thdi gian, hoac cd hai Nhung tac dgng nay cd thg la cd dinh hoac ngau nhidn, Kgt
Bang I: Thdng ke md ta cac bien
Bien
LnFDI
LnGDP
Infrastructure
CoutrolCorruption
Interest
Inflation
Trung binh
7,66 24,77 67,99 -0,23 4,87 7,19
D9 Ifch ctiuan
1,90 1,60 56,63 1,04 8,13 14,80
Min
1,70 21,30 0,67
•1,32
^ 2 , 1 0 -1,71
Max
11,06 26,84 192,27 2,42 28,54 128,42
Trang 5M o hinh
Phinrng p h a p uvc lining
LnODP
Inflation
Infiasinicture
( I )
F E M
2.746***
(0 489)
-0.0106
(0.00873)
-0-0000306
(0.00285)
(2) REM
0.796**' (0,167)
•0 0152*
(0.00896)
0 0 0 9 8 6 " * (0 00158)
(3)
F G L S
0.576***
(0 0329)
-0.0267***
(0.00390)
0.0104***
(0.000934)
(4)
PW
0.582*"*
(0 0454)
-0.0254***
(0.00875)
0.0110***
(0.00182)
(5) FGLS
0 600***
(0-0321)
-0.0285***
(0.00353)
0 0 1 1 7 " * (0 000797)
(«)
FGLS
0 , 5 5 3 * " (0.0332)
-0.0306** * (0.00415)
0 0 1 2 6 " * (0 000710)
Conlrol_Comipiion
Corruption* infra
CorrupEi on'Growih
0.395* 0.353***
(0 0438)
0.326***
(0 0714)
-0.0257*
(0 0154) -0.0298* -0 0517*** -0,0472*** (0,0157) (000641) (00147) -0.0548*** (0 00617)
0 00224***
(0,000245)
-0.0517** • (0.00722)
0.0255*** (0.00509)
Hang so
.So quan sat
Hausman Test
Wooldnge Tesi
Modified Wald
Breusch-Pagan'
Test
LM Test
-59.87***
(1194)
128 0.617
18.20***
0.44 45.99***
-12.38***
(4.115)
128 0,95
-6.748***
(0.864)
128 -7.014***
(1.200)
128 0.860
-7 498***
(0-854)
128 -6.293*** (0.884)
128
Ghi chu:
- Sai so chuan (Standard errors) mo ta trong ngoac don * Pvaiue"^ 0-I> ** Praiur"^ 0 05, ***p,aftu,<0.01
- Cac udc lirong FGLS, PW da dirge xii ly van de phuong sai sai so thay doi (hoi quy vcti robusl standard errors) va tucmg quan giiia cac don vi cheo (cross-sectional correlalion)
qua cac iagm djnh Hausman (dupe trinh bay trong
Bang 2) chi ra rang cac md hinh tdc dpng cd dinh
(Fixed Effects Model - FEM) cd the la phu hop hem
cdc md hinh tdc ddng ngau nhign (Random Effects
Model- REM) Sau dd, chiing tdi sir dung kigm
djnh Wald (Greene, 2000) dd kiem tra ve phuang
sai sai sd thay ddi (Heteroscedasticity), kigm djnh
cua Wooldridge (2002) de kigm tra vg tu tuong
quan (Autocorrelation), kiem dinh Breusch-Pagan
LM (Greene, 2000) de kiera tra tinh dpc lap giiia
cdc don vi cheo trong phan du Ket qud cac kiem
dinh ndy chi ra rdng, md hinh hdi quy tdn t^i hign
tupng phuang sai sai sd thay ddi, tdn tai su tucmg
quan giua cdc dan vi cheo, song khdng tdn tai tuang
quan chuoi bac mdt (xem cdc ket qud kiem dinh d
bdng 2) Trong digu kien cac gid dinh ve phuang
sai sai sd khdng ddi va vg sir ddc lap giiia cac don
vi cheo (cross-sectional independence) dgu bi vi
pham; ddng thdi sd lupng don vi cheo (sd qudc gia)
bdng mdt nija sd lupng cac dan vi thdi gian, phuang
phap udc luong Feasible Generalized Least Squares
(FGLS) Id su lira chpn phu hpp (Beck & Katz, 1995; Hoechle, 2007) Chung tdi ciing sir dung phucmg phap udc lupng Prais-Winstein (PW) trong Greene (2012) de kigm chiing tinh viing manh cua cdc ket qud udc lupng Ket qud hdi quy bdi FGLS, PW, REM, FEM dupe trinh bay trong Bdng 2 Nhin chung, kgt qua udc lupng cua cac phuang phdp hdi quy ndy la khd gdn nhau Tuy nhien, cdc sai sd chudn cua cdc he sd hdi quy ciia FGLS la thap dang ke so vdi cdc phuang phdp khac, digu do ddng nghia rang cdc he sd hdi quy dupe udc lupng chinh xac ban bdi phucmg phap FGLS,
Nhirng kgt qua udc lupng tai Bdng 2 chi ra rdng:
He sd udc luong ciia bien quy md thi trudng ludn mang ddu duang nhu ky vpng, vd dat miic y nghTa thdng ke 1% d cd 6 md hinh Dieu ndy ham y rdng,
kg tir sau cupc khiing hodng tai chinh chdu A, quy
md thi trudng npi dja vdn cd tac dpng tich cue ddi vdi ddng vdn FDI vdo ASEAN Ndi each khdc, tiem ndng thi trudng ndi dia cua cac qudc gia ASEAN
kjRhleiliHltrten
Trang 6dgn vai trd cua bien co sd ha tang, he sd udc lupng
cua bign nay mang ddu duong nhu ky vpng tai cac
md hinh udc lupng bang phuang phap FGLS, PW,
REM vd ludn dat muc y nghTa thdng kg 1% Digu
nay ham y rdng, sir phdt trien cua co sd ha tang ddng
mdt vai trd y nghia ddi vdi thu hiit FDI tai khu virc
ndy Lien quan den cdc nhdn td ve chinh sach kinh tg
vT md, chung tdi tim thdy bdng chimg rang, ty le lai
sudt thuc cd mdi quan he tirong quan am vdi ddng
FD! d miic y nghia thdng kg 1 % tai cdc md hinh udc
luong bdi phuong phap FGLS va PW, d miic y nghia
10% d cac md hinh bdi phuong phdp FEM va REM
Nhu vdy, su tang len ciia ty le lai suat thuc se gia
tang chi phi vdn khi cdc doanh nghiep nude ngodi
tigp can cdc ngudn tdi chinh, digu dd chinh la trd luc
Idn trong thu hut FDI, Hg sd udc lupng cua bien lam
phat mang ddu dm (negative) nhu mong dpi, va dat
miic y nghia thdng ke 1 % d cdc md hinh udc lupng
bdi phuang phap FGLS va PW Kit qud ndy hdm
y rang, tir sau cudc khiing hoang tai chinh chau A,
tinh dn djnh kinh te vT md cua mdi qudc gia npi viing
ludn cd tdc d^ng y nghia ddn quyet dinh lira chpn dia
diem ddu tu ciia ddng vdn FDI
Lign quan den vai trd cua kiem soat tham nhiing
ddi vdi thu hiit FDI, sau khi kiem sodt cac nhdn td
ca ban cua su dinh vi FDI, kgt qua udc lupng chi
ra rang, he sd cua bign kigm soat tham nhiing ludn
mang dau duang nhu ky vong vd dat y nghia thdng
kg d mtic 1% trong cd bdn md hinh udc lupng bdi
FGLS, PW, FEM va REM Dd kidm sodt su tuong
tac giiia tham nhiing vdi mdt sd bign sd ctia nen
kinh te cd thg dnh hudng y nghia dgn thu hiit FDI,
chung tdi lan lupt nhap vdo 2 bien tuong tac giira
kiem sodt tham nhiing vdi chat lupng ca sd ha tdng
(bign Corruption*Infra trong md hinh 5) va kidm
sodt tham nhOng vdi vd tang trudng kinh tg (bign
Corruption*Growth trong md hinh 6) Kgt qud udc
lupng (tai Bdng 2) cho thdy, cac bien tucmg tdc ndy
dgu cd tac dpng tich cue (positive) ddi vdi thu hiit
FDI d mifc y nghia thdng ke 1% Ndi each khdc,
kigm soat tham nhiing cdn cd tac ddng gidn tigp dgn
thu hiit FDI thdng qua cai thign chdt luong ca sd ha
tdng vd gdp phan thiic day tang trudng kinh tg Nhu
vdy, kiem sodt tdt tham nhung se giiip qudc gia chii
nha giam thidu chi phi khdng chinh thuc cho nhd
dau tu, gdp phan ndng cao chat lupng the chg vd
Id nhirng digu kien quan trpng trong canh tranh thu bdt ddng vdn FDI giiia cdc qudc gia trong khu vuc ASEAN
5 Ket luan vd ham y chinh sach cho Viet Nam
Su dung bd dii lieu bang, nghign ciru ndy phan tich cdc nhan td dnh hudng ddn su lua chpn dia dilm ddu tu cua ddng vdn FDI tai cdc qudc gia ASEAN trong giai doan kg tu sau cudc khiing hodng tdi chinh chdu A (1998-2013) Kdt qud udc lupng cho thdy quy md thi trudng, chat iupng ciia co sd h? tdng la nhiing nhdn to kinh tg cd tdc ddng y nghia ddi vdi thu hiit ddng vdn FDI Lien quan dgn mdi trudng kinh tg
vT md, chinh sdch lai suat thuc cd tac ddng ddng kg dgn ddng vdn FDI Tuong tu, ty le lam phat cao cd tac dpng tigu cue ddi vdi ddng vdn FDI vdo khu vuc nay Ddc biet, chiing tdi tim thdy bang chiing quan trpng rang, vigc kiem sodt tdt tham nhiing ddng mdt vai trd rdt quan trpng trong ddy manh canh tranh thu hiit ddng vdn FDI tai ASEAN
Nhiing kgt qua thuc nghiem ndy cho phep chimg tdi de xudt mpt sd gpi y ddi vdi chinh sach thu hiit FDI cua Viet Nam Dau tign, mac du Viet Nam khdng cd nhieu Ipi thg vg quy md thj trudng so vdi mdt sd ddi thu canh tranh chinh tai ASEAI^P, song Viet Nam vdn cd thg thu hiit nhieu FDI bang each day manh kiem soat tdt tham nhiing, minh bach hda mdi trudng dau tu Ddy Id phuang cdch hihi hieu nham gidm thigu nhimg nii ro cua mdi trudng dau
tu ddi vdi cac nhd ddu tu nude ngoai, ddng thdi gdp phdn cai thien chdt lupng co sd ha tdng va thiic ddy tang trudng Ben canh dd, cung cdn thigt ddy manh cai cdch thu tiic hanh chinh gdn vdi hoat ddng dau
tu nude ngodi theo hudng tinh gpn, minh bach, hieu qua Mpi thu tuc hanh chinh lien quan ddn hoat ddng ddu tu, deic biet la boat ddng FDI phdi bdt siic minh bach, gpn nhe Didu ndy cd the giiip kidm sodt tdt tham nhiing ddi vdi hoat ddng FDI Ngoai ra, Viet Nam ciing cdn tap trung thiic ddy nhanh su phat trien cua cp sd ha tdng, nhdt Id ITnh vuc cdng nghe thdng tin vign thdng, chii d-png duy tri su dn dinh kinh tg
vT md, nhdt la dn dinh lai sudt va duy tri ty le lam phdt thap trong tang trudng kinh te Ddy dupe xem
la nhung digu kien dn dinh kinh tg vT md cdn thigt ddi vdi ho^t ddng thu hiit FDI
Trang 71 Theo UNCTADstat, tinh din hk nam 2013, tam qudc gia nay chigm den 98,2% tdng FDI vao ASEAN
2 Theo so lieu cua WDI; nam 2013, Viet Nam xep thu 6 ve quy mo GDP va thii 7 vg GDP binh quan dau ngudi trong
sd 10 qudc gia ASEAN (gia c6 dinh cua ddng USD nam 2000)
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