Trong pham vi ciia nghign cim nay, viec do ludng nhan thuc vg BDKH se dugc tinh toan trgn cac khia canh: sy tdn tai ciia BDHK, nguygn nhan chii ygu eiia BDKH, cac bieu hien cua BDKH, anh
Trang 1THlTC TRANG NHAN THtTC CUA NGlTCfl DAN VEN BIEN
V£ BIEN D 6 I KHI HAU
Trinh Thi Tuy^t Dung Nguygn Diic Hoan
Tom tat: Trong bdi cdnh hiin nay, cdc bieu hiin ciia biin ddi khi hgu dang ngdy cdng the hiin ro
ret vd cd nhieu tdc ddng din nguoi ddn vd cdc hogt ddng sinh ki Nhdn thirc vi biin ddi khi hdu la hit siic cdn thiet di cdc bin liin quan cd hdnh ddng chung tay ciing gidm thiiu tdc dgng cua biin ddi khi hdu vd thich img v&i bien ddi khi hdu Nghiin cuu ndy khdo sdt nhdn thuc cua ngu&i ddn ven biin vi bien ddi khi hgu trin cdc khia cgnh gdm: nhdn thirc vi biin doi khi hdu, diin bien cua biin ddi khi hdu, cdc dnh huong cua bien ddi khi hdu vd hogt ddng ung phd Bin cgnh do, nghiin ciru cdng xem xet cdc nguyen nhdn gidi thich cho viic nhdn thiic chua cao vi biin ddi khi hdu cua nguai ddn ven biin
Tir khda: Biin ddi khi hdu; nhdn thirc, ven bien
Dat v3n de
Bign ddi kbi hau (BDKH) la mdt vdn de ndi
com toan eau, thach thiic eac nd lyc irng phd ciia
nhigu qudc gia nhat Nd ed anh hudng true tiep va
ro ret len cac viing ven bign, tac ddng dgn boat
dgng kinh tg va siic khde cua con ngudi Do do,
viec nhan thiic duge nhiing bieu bien va tac ddng
cua BDKH dg cd hanh ddng thich ung, ling phd la
dieu hgt siic can thigt nhat la ddi vdi ngudi dan lam
nong nghiep cd boat dgng san xuat gan vdi dat va
bign - cd tinh dg bi tdn thuang cao Vi vay, viec do
ludng nhan thiic cua ngudi dan ve BDKH la can
thigt dg danh gia, so sanh, tii' do cd nhiing giai phap
nang eao nhan thuc hgp ly ddi vdi nhdm ddi tugng
nay
1 Mot sd khai niem
1.1 Bien ddi khi hgu
Theo IPCC, BDKH thg hien b5ng su thay ddi
tiang thai khi hau, dugc xac dinh bdi nhung gia tri
hung binh hoac sy thay ddi vg thudc tinh ciia nd
tiong thdi gian dai trong vai thap ky hoac lau han
Nguyen nhan eua viee thay ddi thanh phan khi
quygn va tiong sir dung dat dugc xac dinh la do
quy trinh ty nhign bgn tiong hoac bgn ngoai, hoac
do con ngudi tao ra (IPCC', 2007) Theo quan digm nay, nguygn nhan cua BDKH bao ham ca nguygn nhan tir tu nhien va tii con ngudi, nhung con ngudi cd vai trd quan tigng khien cd dien bien cua BDKH xay ra nhanh ban Dinh nghTa ciia IPCC cung ndi rd hon ve cac bieu Men cy thg cua BDKH bao gdra: Thay ddi bat thudng cua do am
va lugng mua theo khdng gian va thdi gian; gia tang nhiet do tnmg binh; myc nude bign dang; va gia tang cae hien tugng thdi tigt eye doan Trong pham vi ciia nghign cim nay, viec do ludng nhan thuc vg BDKH se dugc tinh toan trgn cac khia canh: sy tdn tai ciia BDHK, nguygn nhan chii ygu eiia BDKH, cac bieu hien cua BDKH, anh hudng ciia BDKH dgn boat ddng san xuat ndng nghigp, va eac hoat ddng ung phd ndi chung Viec
do ludng bign bien ciia BDKH gidi ban d viec do ludng nhan thiie cua ngudi dan vg sy thay ddi tan suat va cudng do ciia eac hien tugng: bao, gidng Idc, nang ndng, han ban, mua Idn
http.//www thegwpf.org/ipcc-inttoduces-new-climate-change-defmition/
Trang 21.2 Cdc nghien cdn ve nhdn thirc ve bien ddi
khihgu
Cac nghien ciiu thyc nghiem da chi ra rang
cang ngay ngu'di dan cang cd mdi quan tara dgn
BDKH cung nhu cd su ddng thuan hon tiong nhan
thiic vg nguygn nhan gay ngn BDKH la do con
ngudi Nghign cim tir 2012 cho thay cdn cd gan
2/3 sd ngudi tra ldi cho rSng nguyen nhan chinh
ciia BDKH la radt sy ket hop cua hoat ddng cua
con ngudi va qua tiinh tu nhign (DOEIN, 2012)
Cac nghign ciiu sau dd cbi ro sy ddng nhat trong
quan digm cho rSng BDKH la do con ngudi (xem
Ahmad, 2014; Wei va cdng sy, 2014; Ojomo va
cdng sy, 2015) Vg eac bign hien eua BDKH,
ngu'di dan nhan bigt dugc nhiing dign bien phd
bign thdng thudng nhu miia he ndng ban, miia
ddng am ban (Hasan va Kumar, 2019)
Nghign Cliu vg nhan thirc BDKH cho thay cd
su khac biet theo cae dac diem ca nhan nhu: sd
thich, niem tin, mdi quan tam, do tudi, gidi tinh,
trinh do hgc van (Zelezny, 2000; DOENI, 2012;
Aini va cdng sy, 2013; Ahmad, 2014; Jitendra va
cdng sy, 2015; Ziegler, 2017.,.) Theo dd, nhung
ngudi cd mdi quan tam nhieu hon dgn mdi trudng
thudng cd banh vi ung hd radi trudng cao bon
Nhirng ngudi ed trinh do hgc van cao han co nhan
thiie ve BDKH tdt ban (DOENI, 2012), thara ehi
nhan thiic vg tac ddng cua BDKH tieu eye han
(Poortinga va cdng sy, 2019) Nghign ciiu d 33
qudc gia cho thay d nhung nude phat thai khi
cac-bon thap, cac ea nhan cd xu hudng cd nhan tbiic vg
BDKH thap hon chii ygu do nhan thiic ve cae
nguyen nhan cua BDKH (SilviaLuis va cdng su,
2018)
O cap dp ca nhan, nhieu nghien ciiii chi ro
nguai dan co nhan thiic chua day du ve anh
hudng ciia BDKH nhu; Chiang, 2018;
Escarcha va cong su, 2018; Lm va cong su,
2018; Zhai va cong sir, 2018; SilviaLuis va
cong sir, 2018; Dubeva Phiri, 2013 Mac dii
ngudi dan nhan thiic dugc nhiing m i ro tit
BDKH, ciing nhu nhung tac dong den sinh ke,
va sue klioe nhung phan Ion hg biet dugc muc
do rui ro that su ma ho dang phai doi mat (Lin
va cong sir, 2018)
O Viet Nam ciing cd mdt sd cac nghien ciiu lien quan dgn nhan thirc cua ngudi dan ve BDKH:
Le Nguyen Doan Khdi, 2011; Dang Dinh TbSng, 2013; Luong Thi Thu Hang, 2016 Cac nghien ciiu
da nhan thirc cua cdng ddng ven bien vg eac higu Men CO ban cua BDKH nhu bien ddng thdi tigt noi chung (nhiet do, nang, mua, gid, bao ); bien ddng nhiet do ndi chung; sd ngay raua, lugng raua, tinh tiang ngap lut; sd ngay nSng, tinh tiang nang nong
va ban ban; gid Idn, bao; myc nude bign, thiiy trign, ddng chay va sdng bign; muc nude sdng, ddng chay trgn sdng rach; tinh trang xara nhap man trgn sdng va rudng ddng (Le Nguygn Doan Khoi, 2011) phu hgp vdi dia ban nghign ciiu Ngoai ra, cae nghien ciiu ciing chi ra cac giai phap img phd, danh gia chinh sach, ciing nhu mite do san sang cM tra cho viec ung phd ciia ngudi dan (Dang Dinh Thang, 2013), bay dg xuat cac md hinh sinh kg cho ngudi ngheo thich ling vdi BDKH (Luang Thi Thu Hang, 2016)
Tdm lai, cac nghign ciiu vg nhan tbiic vg BDKH ciia ngudi dan d Viet Nam da dang nhung chua nhigu ciing nhu chua phan tich sau nhu cae nghien cim trgn thg gidi Cac nghien ciiu da cd thudng lign quan dgn ITnh vyc ndng nghiep - cung
la nganh nghg cd sd lugng lao dgng Idn d Viet Nam, va vi thg nhirng tac ddng ciia BDKH cung dugc xem xet ehii ygu tiong san xuat ndng nghigp, nhan thirc vg anh hudng cua BDKH trong ddi sdng chua duge quan sat cd be thdng nhu cac nghign Cliu d nude ngoai Cac nghign eiiu rieng ve nhan thue eiia ngudi dan vdi tac ddng cua BDKH va thay ddi sinh kg cung chua nhieu
2 Phirong phap nghien ciru
2.1 Phuffngphdp dieu tra
Nghien ciru thyc hien dieu tra bang bdi ngudi dan ven bign Ddi tugng dugc chgn khao sat la ngudi dan tai xa ven bign Nhan Hai thudc huyen Ninh Hai, tinh Ninh Thuan Trong dd ngudi dan dugc chgn tai 4/6 thdn cua xa dam bao cd dii so ngudi boat ddng trong cac ITnh vyc khac nhau nhu canh tac ndng nghiep, thuy hai san, lara raudi
Trang 3Thirc trang nh§n thirc
Ngoai ra, dg bd sung cho phdn dieu tra vg nhan
thiic cua ngudi dan, nghien cim nay tign hanh
phong van sau mdt sd ngudi dan va dai dien chinh
quygn de cd cai nhin tdng thg va sau sic ban vg
van dg nghign eiiu
2.2 Phirong phdp phdn tich sd lieu
Mau dua vao phan tich gdm cd 133 mlu Ca
cau mlu phan chia theo boat ddng kinh tg ehu yeu
cua hg gia dinh Trong dd, boat ddng trong ITnh
vyc tidng tigt va chan nudi la chu yeu
Dg phan tieh thyc trang nhan thirc ciia ngudi
dan ven bien vg BDKH, nghien ciru sir dung
phuang an gan tigng sd tuong duong cho cac phin
cau hdi ve nhan thiie Nhan thirc vg BDKH dugc
chia thanh 3 phan: Al) nhan thirc vg nguyen nhan
ciia BDKH; A2) nhan thiic vg higu Men cua
BDKH; A3) nhSn tbiic vg anh budng BDKH; A4)
nhan thiic ve irng phd chung BDKH Trong dd
phan nhan thiie chung vg BDKH do ludng cu thg
trong nhan thii'c vg sy tdn tai, nguygn nhan, cac
higu hien chinh ciia BDKH
ngudi dan trgn 3 khia canh chmh la: Nhan thirc chung vg BDKH, nhan thuc ve anh hudng cua BDKH, va nhan thirc vg boat ddng img phd vdi BDKH Dg tim higu ro ban vg cac ygu td anh hudng dgn nhan thirc cua ngudi dan ven bign vg BDKH, nghign ciiu dua vao phan tich cae bign nhan khau gdm: gidi tinh, trinh dd hge van, boat ddng kinh te chinh, tudi dg xem cac nhan td nay giai thich dugc bao nMgu phan tiam sy khac biet tiong nhan thiic vg BDKH cua ngudi dan ven bign
3 Kgt qua nghien cihi
3.1 Nhdn thirc vi bien ddi khi hgu
Nhdn thuc chung ve BDKH
Nhan thirc chung ve BDKH dugc xem xet qua cau hdi nhan dinh vg higu biet eua ngudi dan vg su tdn tai ciia BDKH tien thyc tg, nguygn nhan chu ygu cua BDKH va cac bieu Men cy thg ciia BDKH Kgt qua dieu tra vg sy tdn tai ciia BDKH tien thyc tg d nhdm ngudi dan ven bien cho thay ty lg
sd ngudi cho rang BDKH da va dang xay ra cdn thap, con sd nay la dudi 85% (Bang 1) Trong khi
dd, ty le cao so ngudi tia ldi khdng biet va klidng tia ldi cau hdi nay cdn cao Digu nay cho thay nhan thiic cua ngudi dan ve BDKH cdn thip
Moi phan dugc danh trgng sd de tinh digm cho
tung phin Al, A2, A3, A4 Mdi nhdm dugc gan
diem sao eho sd digm ciia tirng phan, Al, A2, A3,
A4 la bang nhau Sau dd, tap hgp digm ciia timg
nhom se tinh toan ra digm trung binh nham so sanh
ro net nhat ve digm nhan thiic (Dnt) cua cac nhdm
Bang 1: NHAN THU'C VE NGUYEN NHAN CUA BIEN D O I KHI HAU
Cac nhom nghe
Trong trot chan nuoi gia sue
Nuoi trong danli bat thuy hai san
Nghe khae
Lam muoi
Cac phmmg an
Da va dang xay ra (%)
85
78
74
83
Chira xay ra, tiroTig lai xiiv ra (%)
6
11
5
0
Hoan toan khong xay ra (%)
3 5.6 5,3 8,3
Ngudn: Phdn tich kit qud dieu tra cua tdc gid (2019)
Nhan thirc vi bieu hien cita BDKH
Nhan thitc vg bieu hien ciia BDKH ciia ngudi
dan cdn thap Hg nhan bigt dugc cac hien tugng
gan gui, cu thg nhat ddi vdi ddi sdng hang ngay
nhu sy thay ddi tan suat, thdi gian, va cudng ddcae hien tugng ve bao, ban, mua Idn, gidng Idc, nSng ndng Ty le sd ngudi tra ldi dua ra y kign rat ddng
y cao nhat chigm 61,7% tdng sd ngudi cd cau tra ldi Cac nhan dinh manh tinh khai quat hem nhu
Trang 4nhan dinh cdc hien tuang xdy ra vdo cdc khodng
thdi gian khde hon so v&i tru&c kia khien nhigu
ngudi tia ldi khdng chac chan va khdng ed cau tia
ldi, ciing nhu ty le ddng y va rat ddng y rat thap
eon sd nay la 40% tdng sd ngudi cd cau tia ldi Trong tdng sd nhiing ngudi tra ldi chi cd 32 ngudi (chigm 23,7%) cd y kien d miic ddng y trd len vdi
ca 5 nhan dinh vg BDKH (Hinh 1)
HINH 1: TY LE NGUOL TRA LOI DONG Y VOI CAC NHAN DINH VE BIEU HIEN CUA BIEN DOI
KHIHAU
Cac hien tugng xay ra vao cac khoang thdi f////////////A IS ii— :-:- • 1 57.3
gian khac hoai so vdi trudc kia j ^ ^ ~ i Z Z Z i r 2 i 8
Gia tang cac bign tuang bao, han, raua Idn, gidng, Yy///y//w//^iWM ^6-3 ,
loc • • • •
Gia tang nhiet, nhidu ngay nang ndng hon ^yy>3yyyyyyyyyyyyy>^^^^^ 6I.71
va nang ndng nhieu han • • ""^
Mua Ion, bao lu nhidu han, manh hon ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
Mue nitocbifa dang ^SSSmsmS^M^
0.0 10.0 20.0 30 0 40.0 50 0 60.0 70.0 DKB/KTL HRDY D D Y B K D Y
Nguon: Phdn tich kit qud dieu tra cua tdc gid (2019)
Nhdn thirc ve dnh hudng cua BDKH
Nhan thirc vg anh hudng cua BDKH cho thay
nhigu ngudi dan con hoai nghi vg eac tac dgng ciia
BDKH dgn boat dgng ciia con ngudi Trong sd
nhung tra ldi cau bdi nay cd dgn 30,1% so ngudi
cho rdng "tdc ddng cua BDKH la khdng chdc
chdn" Chi cd 37,6%) khdng ddng vdi nhan dinli
nay, va sd cdn lai ludng lu ngn khdng cd cau tia
ldi
Tucfng tu eau hdi tign, can tra ldi cho cau hdi
"mire do nghiem trgng cua BDKH bi phdng dgi"
cd 33,8%) sd ngudi ludng lu, va 30,8%) lua chgn
"ddng y" hoac "rat ddng y" eho y kien "miic do
nghiim trgng cita BDKH bi phong dgi"
Hau hgt d cac nhan dinh dugc dua ra la cac anh
hudng cua BDKH dgn boat ddng kinh tg nhu "tdng
ty li ddi ngheo", "gia tdng binh tdt cho con
nguoi", "tdc dgng bdt lgi din sire khde " ngudi tra
ldi deu cd y kien "dongy" hoac "rdt dongy" Sd ngudi khdng "dongy" a cac nhan dinh tren chigm
ty le nhd d miic dudi 10%) (Hinh 2)
Tuy nhign, tiong sd eac nhan dinh ve anh budng eiia BDKH dugc do ludng, cd 2 nhan dinh
la "mdt nai cu tru" va "tdng sd nguoi bi thuong,
bi chit do thien tai" ed sd lugng ngudi tia ldi thg hien y kign d miic "khdng dongy" rat cao, chigm
trgn 1/3 sd ngudi tra ldi Dieu nay la do dia ban cu trii xa Nhon Hai it chiu anh hudng ciia hoan luu cac can bao Idn, chii ygu la anh hudng ciia ap thap nhiet ddi Anh hudng cua cac hien tugng nay chii yeu dimg lai d viec gay lu, ngap lam hu hai cay trdng, rudng raudi va khdng ed thiet hai ve ngudi, nha cira (Bao eao tinh hinh phdng chdng thign tai
va tim kigm ciru nan tren dia ban xa qua cac nam cho thay khdng cd thiet hai ve ngudi, nha cua Chu yeu la thiet hai vg hoa mau, mdng mudi)
Trang 5Hinh 2: NHAN THUC CUA NGUOl DAN VE A N H H U O N G CHUNG CUA BIEN DOI Kffl HAU
Mat noi eu tni Tang sd ngudi bi thuong, bi chgt do thien tai
Lam tang ty le ddi ngheo
Gia tang benh tat cho con ngudi nhat la eac benh g
truygn nhigm
Tac ddng tigu cue (bat lgi) dgn sire khde eon ^ ^ g
ngudi ^ ^ H
• — , ,
1 B.J
i ^ ' 4 9 6
• RBY HDY DKDY
Nguon: Phdn tich kit qud diiu tra ciia tdc gid (2019)
Nhdn thirc ve dnh huang cua BDKH din hogt
dgng kinh te
Trong cac loai hinh thdi tigt eye doan lya chgn
dg ngudi dan danh gia tac dgng cho thay, cd 2 bien
Urang chinh la nfing ndng va ban ban dugc danh
gia cd anh hudng to Idn khdng chi den boat dgng
san xuit ndng nghiep tren dit lign Dai da sd ngudi
dan cho rang nang ndng va ban han cd anh hudng
nhigu den san xuat ndng nghiep (Hop 1), (Hinh 3)
Hop 1: Xam hanh tdi gid khdng dugc nhu
trudc kia, nhigu khi do thigu nude hoac ngap
ling, nang suat thap ban"
Hien tugng nang ndng gay ban ban anh hudng Idn den dien tieh dit san xuat ndng nghiep khien ngudi dan phai cd nhieu bien phap khac nhau nham thich img Dien tich trdng tigt canh tac nho, tao, hanh, tdi thi ap dung md hinh tudi nho gigt vira tigt kiem nude va van dam bao cung cip dii lugng nude cho cay sinh trudng Bgn canh dd, thdi tigt nang ndng lai giiip cho eay nho cd dugc chat lugng la nang suit tdt ban (Hop 2)
Hop 2 "Cay nho ua khd ndng, cho tiai ngon
nggt hon, nang ndng lai cd nang suat ban"
Hinh 3: NHAN THU'C CUA NGUOl DAN VE ANH HUONG CUA BIEN DOI KHI H A U DEN TRONG
TROT VA CHAN NUOI
150
100
50
0
100
Mua lan
Bern vi %
N5ng nong Mua 16m ^ u lut Han han Sa mac hoa Bao
Qlt • Trung binh HNhiSu a KB
Nguon • PJidn tich kit qud dieu tra cita tdc gid (2019)
Trang 6man ciia dam nudi lam thiet hai khdng nhd dgn thiiy bai san
Hop 3: Phdng van sau chinh quyen xa va ngudi
dan dgu cho bigt dien tich thieu nude san xuat, khd ban gia tang va dang chuygn sang lam dam mudi
"Han la thieu nude nggt bom vao cac dam tdm,
vu do thu kem ban"
Nhdn thirc dnh hu&ng cita BDKH din nudi
trdng ddnh bdt thuy hdi sdn
Tucmg ty vdi boat ddng trdng trgt va chan
nudi, nudi trdng va danh bat thiiy bai san cung nhu
lam mudi bi anh budng Idn bdi Men tirgng nang
ndng va ban ban Trgn 2/3 so ngudi tia ldi cho rang
BDKH anh hudng Idn dgn hoat ddng kinh te chinh
cua hg Anh hudng cua bao va ngap lut den thuy
san va danh bat bai san d miic do thap hon nhigu
(Hinh 4) Digu nay kha phii hgp vdi bao cao ve
tinh binh tMet bai anh hudng tir thign tai tdi kinh tg
cua xa Theo cac bao cao trudc dd, xa thudng
xuygn chju anh hudng ciia bien tugng thdi tigt khd
ban va thigu nude chung trgn dia ban xa Ddi vdi
nudi trdng thiiy san, thieu nude nggt khien tang do
Hinh 4: NHAN THUC CUA NGUOl D A N VE A N H H U O N G CUA BIEN DOI KHI H^U
DEN NUOI TRONG THUY S A N
Ngugc lai vdi nhiing tac ddng tieu cye do cac hien tugng thdi tiet eye doan gay ngn, nang ndng lai tao dieu kien cho san xuat mudi d xa Nhan Hai
ed nhigu thuan lgi
41.741 7
H tnmg binh • nliieu
20.8
i
Ngudn: Phdn tich kit qua diiu tra ciia tdc gid (2019)
Nhdn thirc vi dnh huong cua BDKH din sice
khde con ngu&i
Phan do ludng nlian thiic cua ngudi dan vg cac
bien tirgng: nang ndng, nude bign dang, bao va ap
thap nhiet ddi, ngap lut, ban han dgn sire khde eua
con ngudi cho thay phan Idn ngudi dan cho ring
nang ndng va ban han ed anh hudng cao dgn siic
khde ngudi dan Chi sd nay la tren 80%) sd ngudi
tra ldi (Hinh 5) Trong khi do khi dua ra y kign eua
ea nhan vg anh budng ciia cac hien tugng thdi tigt khac thi da sd ngudi tra ldi lya chgn d mire trung binh, tham ehi d miic thap Dieu nay ehii ygu la do dac digm dia phuang it chiu anh hudng eua cac hien tugng khac va chiing khdng cd tac ddng Idn dgn sire khde eiia ngudi dan noi nay
PHAT T R I E N BEN V O N G V U N G Q U Y E N 9, SO 3 (9/2019)
Trang 7mnh 5: NHAN THUC CUA NGUOI DAN VE ANH HUONG CUA
BIEN DOI KHI H A U DEN StlC KHOE
Han ban m-iOi \/y<A^-/yVy</-//A "^-^ ^/••////y^/>^'/-/^>\
Liilut
Bao va ap thap nhiet ddi
"2'7 3 •
• Thap
D Tnmg binh
-.UJA-'X/JJ
ngngndng 0-; -i3; - Y'/'/'/'.>^/'/'/'/yY/'/ " "^'//Yy'/y'y'y'/y'yA
Nguon: Phdn tich ket qud diiu tra cua nhdm tdc gid (2019)
Nhdn thuc vi hogt ddng img phd
Cac hoat ddng img phd vdi BDKH bao gdm
cac boat ddng giup giam lugng phat thai khi nha
kinh duac cho la nguyen nhan cua BDKH ciing
nhu thay ddi phuong thirc san xuat dg thich iing
vdi BDKH Nhan thiic ciia ngudi dan vg cac boat
dgng ling phd cdn thieu, chua day du Phan Idn
ddng y vdi nhan dinh ve "tdng cu&ng trdng vd bdo
vi rimg" va nhan dinh "thay ddi cdch thirc sdn
xuat ndng Idm nghiep thich img voi BDKH", day
cung la nhung hoat ddng thigt thuc va gan giii nhat
doi vdi ngudi dan Tuy nhign, hg khdng nhan thuc
dugc ban chat ciia boat ddng phai la giam ngudn
gay 6 nhigm ra radi trudng
Hinh 6: NHAN THLTC VE HOAT DONG UNG
Trong sd nhiing ngudi tia ldi cd 39 ngudi, chiem 28,9%o sd ngudi tia ldi ddng y vdi ea 3 boat ddng trgn deu la cae hoat ddng img phd vdi BDKH (Hinh 6) Va nhung ngudi cd boat ddng kirih te chinh la danh bat va nudi trong thiiy hai san cd nhan thirc vg boat ddng img phd vdi BDKH tdt bon la nhung ngudi co boat dgng kmh te chinh la tidng trgt va chan nudi
Dg giam su phuc thudc vao sy thay ddi cua cac hien tugng thign tai va thdi tigt cye doan dgn san xuat ndng lam thuy san, ngudi dan va chinh quygn
xa phdi hop cimg nhau xay dyng hd trii nude va he thdng kenh dan nhara cung cap nude smh boat va san xuat cho ngudi dan trong xa tir 10 nam trudc PHO VOl BIEN D 6 I K H I HAU CUA NGUOl D A N
Tang cudng trong va bao ve rimg
Giam cac hoat dgng lam gia tang khi thai
Thay doi each thiic san xuat nong lam nghiep thich
ling vm BDKH
Ngudn: Phdn tich kit qud dieu tia cita nhdm tdc gid (2019)
PHAT TRIEN BEN VCfNG VUNG QUYEN 9, SO 3 (9/2019)
Trang 8Diem nhdn thirc tdng hop cua ngu&i ddn vi
BDKH
Digra nhan tbiic tdng bop ciia ngudi dan vg
BDKH dugc xac dinh chay trong khoang tir 0 dgn
11,7 Trong do cd 1 ngudi cd diem cao nhat la 11,7
digm trong tdng sd 4 phan digm, va I ngudi cimg
dat 6,6 digm Digm nhan thirc trung binh ciia ngu'di
dan la 6,5 digm, digm trung vi la 6,6 Theo dd cd
50%) sd ngudi tia ldi cd digra tir dudi 6,6 diem
Phan phdi diera nhan thiic tdng hgp cua ngudi dan
kha tap tnmg va la mdt phan phdi chuin lech tiai
(do cd do xien la -0,473 thugc khoang tir -1 den 1
Do xign thg hien miic do bat ddi xiing cua phan
Bang 2: DIEM NHAN THlTC VE BIEN
phdi xac xuat ciia mdt bign ngau nhien: = 0 la phan phdi can xiing, >0 la phan phdi lech phai, < 0 la phan phdi lech trai) Quan sat cae diem nhan thirc thanh phan vg BDKH nhu: nguyen nhan ciia BDKH, higu Men cua BDKH, anh hudng ciia BDKH, va cac boat ddng ling phd vdi BDKH cho thay Dnt vg nguygn nhan cua BDKH dgu cd diem trung binh va digm trung vi cao nliat, con sd nay la 1,5 va 1,97 diem Trong khi dd cac Dnt cdn lai thap hon, thap nhat la Dnt vg boat dgng iing phd Cac chi sd eua digm nay thap bon han vdi digm tnmg binh la 0,6 digm va digra tmng vi la 0,88 digm
D6I KHi HAU CUA NGUOl DAN
Diem nhan thiic tong hgp
Nhan thiic ve nguyen nhan cua BDKH
Nhan thuc ve bieu hien cua BDKH
Nhan thuc ve anh hucmg ctia BDKH
Nhan thtrc ve hoat dong ting pho vai BDKH
Gia tri nho nhat
0
0
0
0
0
Gia trj 16'n nhat
11,7
3,0 3,0 2,7 3,0
Gia tri trung hinh
6,5 1,97 1,43 1,54 1,54
Ngudn: Nhdm tdc gid (2019)
3.2 Xu hu&ng nhan thirc cda ngu&i dan
Cae van dg vg nhan thirc ciia ngudi dan cho
thay nhd cac phuong tien truygn thdng phd bign
nhu dai va ti vi ma ngudi dan cang ngay cang cd
Men biet hon vg cum tir "biin ddi khi hgu" Nhd
do, phan Idn ngudi dugc hdi ty danh gia rang nhan
thirc vg BDKH cua hg cd tang ign eho dii day chi
la nhQ-ng bieu biet ca ban nhat vg van dg BDKH
Tuy nhign, cd mdt sd khdng nhd nhiing ngudi
dugc hdi cho rang nhan thiic ciia hg kem di trong
10 nam qua do sy suy giam tri nhd khi vg gia
Mdi quan tam cua ngudi dan ddi vdi cac van
de vg BDKH ciing cd nhigu sy khac biet Ngudi tra
ldi cd quan tam den van de ve BDKH nhung day khdng phai la im tien cua bg Thyc tg mdi quan tam Idn nhat cua hg la van dg Hgn quan tryc tiep,
cy the va rd nhat dgn ddi sdng eiia hg la "thu nhap
vd viic Idm " (Hinh 7) Mdi quan tam dgn eac van
dg lign quan den radi trudng, bign ddi khi hau, su
cd mdi trudng la nhu nhau va xgp thii hai Ket qua phdng van sau ngudi dan ciing cho thay thyc tg ngudi dan quan tam va higu biet rd ret hon den cac hien tugng thdi tigt cu the thudng anh hudng dgn
ddi sdng va san xuat la "ndng ndng" va su thay
ddi ciia raiia raua trong nam
Trang 9Hinh 7: MLTC DO QUAN T A M CUA NGUOl D A N VEN BIEN D £ N M O T SO V A N DE
D o n vi % Thu nhap va viec lam
Ngheo ddi
Benh dich
Suy thoai mdi trudng
0 nhigm mdi trudng
Bign doi khi hau
EiEiE3a3CH3 51.9
L • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • — • • ^ S ^
'••••f.j-.j- -.j-.f.i-.t^>-.i-.ti 5 3 4
10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 DRat quan tam ^- Quan tam B Khong quan tam
Ngudn: Nhdm tdc gid (2019)
Cac phuang tien truygn thdng ciing cd tac ddng
lam nang cao nhan tbiic cua ngudi dan Khao sat
cho thay nhirng ngudi cd nhan tbiic tdt bon cd xu
hudng sd biiu day dii cac thigt bi truygn thdng hien
dai nhu, ti-vi, dien thoai thdng minh va cd sir dung
mang internet Viec sir dung cae thigt bi nay
thudng xuygn tao kha nang cho viec ca nlian dd
tigp can vdi cae ngudn tin cd lign quan den BDKH
mgt each ngau nhign Vi du, ngudi xem, ngudi
nghe cho rang hg khdng bigt va khdng chu ddng
tim den cac cum tii nhu "BDKH" nhung hg lai vd
tinh xem, nghe trgn dai hoac tivi Tham cbi nhiing
ngudi tre tudi lai vd tinh bigt dgn qua cac trang
mang xa hdi Idn nhu facebook
Hop 4: " cung khdng biet ve BDKH, xem trgn
mang ed liic tu nhign thay tign facebook thi biet
thdi"
3.3 Cdcyeu to dnh hu&ng den nhan thirc cda
ngu&i ddn
Khac biet trong trinh do hgc vdn
Phan tich cac nhan td anh hudng dgn nhan thiic
cua ngudi dan ven bien vg BDKH cho thay cac
bien nhdm tudi, sir dung ti-vi, sir dung dien thoai
thdng minh, nghe dai, sir dung mang internet, trinh
do hoc van cd thg giai thich dugc 12,2%) sy khac
biet trong nhan thiic ciia ngudi dan ven bign vg
BDKH Cdn lai ban 80%o phu thudc vao cac nhdm
nhan td khac khdng dugc quan sat Phan tich mdi tuong quan giii'a eac cap bign gdm trinh do bgc van, boat ddng kinh tg chu ygu va digm nhan thitc tdng hgp thi cU cd 1 cap la diem tong hgp va trinh
do nhan thiic cd mdi tuong quan thuan cd y nghia Theo do, trinh do hgc van cang cao thi diem nhan thirc cua ngudi dan ven bign ve BDKH cang cao
Mdi quan tdm din mdi tru&ng
Moi quan tam cua ngudi dan ddi vdi cae van
dg vg BDKH ciing ed nhigu su khac biet Ngudi tia ldi cd quan tam dgn van dg vg BDKH nhung day khdng phai la uu tien ciia hg Thuc te mdi quan tam Idn nhat ciia hg la van de lign quan true tigp,
cy thg va ro nhat dgn ddi sdng ciia bg la "thu nhap
va viec lam" Mdi quan tam den cac van dg lien quan dgn radi trudng, bign ddi kbi ban, su cd mdi trudng la nhu nhau va xgp thii hai Kgt qua phdng van sau ngudi dan ciing cho thay thyc tg ngudi dan quan tara va Meu biet rd ret hon dgn cac hien tugng thai tiet eu thg thudng anh hudng den ddi sdng va san xuat la "nang ndng" va su thay ddi cua miia mua trong nam
Truyin thdng ve bien ddi khi hdu
Cac phuang tien truygn thdng ciing cd tac ddng lam nang eao nhan thiic ciia ngudi dan Khao sat cho thay nhirng ngudi cd nhan thiic tdt ban cd xu hudng sd hiiu day du cae thigt bi truygn thdng hien dai nhu, ti vi, dien thoai thdng minh va ed sir dung
PHAT T R I E N B E N VCfNG VUNG Q U Y E N 9, SO 3 (9/2019)
Trang 10mang intemet Ngugc lai, nhiing ngU'di tra ldi ma
hd gia dinh dd sd huu day du cac thiet bi: dai, ti-vi,
dien thoai thdng minh, raang intemet dgu ed digm
nhan thiic d mire trung binh trd lgn Trong dd ed
37,5 sd ngudi tra ldi ed sd hiiu day du cac thigt bi
tren cd diem nhan thiic d miic cao Ciing cd ngudi
thudc nhdm nay nhung ed miic dd nhan thiic thap
do hg thudc nhdm ngudi cao tudi, cae thiet bi bien
cd hg khdng su dyng raa ngudi khac tiong gia dinh
sir dyng
Nhin chung, cac phuong tien va cac each thuc
truyen thdng vg BDKH va cac van de hen quan
dgn mdi trudng, phdng chdng va giara nhe nii ro
thien tai tien dia ban xa giiip ngudi dan ed nhan
thirc tdt ban vg van dg BDKH
Kgt luan
Nghien ciiu nhan thiic cua ngudi dan ven bien
ve BDKH trgn cac gdc do ve sy tdn tai, nguyen
nhan, bigu hien, tac ddng cua BDKH va cac boat
ddng ling phd vdi BDKH cho thay radt sd van dg
CO ban sau:
Ngudi dan ven bien ed nhan thiie khdng cao ve
su ton tai cua BDKH cting nhu ve nguygn nhan va
cac bigu bien eua BDKH Hau bet hg nhan thirc
dugc cae van de co ban nhat va cy thg nhat vg
BDKH do va cac bign tugng thdi tiet eye doan la
nang ndng va sy thay ddi eiia raiia raua trong nam
Kgt qua phan tich mdi tu'ong quan va md hmh eho thay hau nhu cac bign nhan khau hgc khdng co mdi tuong quan cd y nghia ddi vdi digm nhan thiic
ve BDKH Bign trinh do bgc van cd tuong quan thuan vdi diem nhan thiic nhung cung chi giai thich dugc ty le khdng cao vg nhan thirc ciia ngudi dan vg BDPCH Bgn canh do, cac bien vg phuang tien truygn thdng cung khdng ly giai dugc nhan thirc trong kbi ket qua eiia phdng van sau lai cho thay ngudi dan cd tbgm cac kign thiic ve BDKH thdng qua cac phucmg tien tmygn thdng nhu bao dai Vi vay, day la radt ban che ciia nghign cmi va
cd thg can tim higu sau hon trong cac nghign ciiai tigp theo
Cudi cimg, nghign ciru nay sii dung kgt hgp ca phuang phap digu tra bang hdi va phdng v§.n sau
dg dua ra kgt qua nghien ciiu Nghign cim nay ciing ed thg md ra mgt sd hudng nghign ciiu tiep theo nhu: Phan tich kgt hgp giiia nhan thiic vg anh budng ciia BDKH dgn boat ddng kinh te di kem vdi phan tich sd lieu quan trae va thiet hai hang nam de phan vimg miic do anh hudng Kgt hgp them ndi dung nay se cho cai nhin tdng thg xem lieu ngudi dan ed nhan thiic diing dugc miic do anh hudng cua BDKH dgn dia ban ciia bg hay khdng? Digu nay se thyc su can thigt dg dua ra khuygn nghi dg giiip ngudi dan cd nhan thiie dung dan vg tac ddng cua BDKH, tii dd ed nhiing bien phap thich iing nham giam thigu tac ddng cua BDKH dgn ddi sdng va boat ddng kinh tg
Tai ligu tham khao
1 Ahmad, K (2014) Students' perception of the Learning Environment in Bussiness education m
Kuwait: A comparative study between private and public Universities Journal of business stutdies quarterly, volume 5, nuber 3, pp 59-68 bttp://jbsq.org/wrp-content/uploads/2014/03/March_20l4_6.pdf
2 Aini, M.S., Chan, S.C, and Jyuhaily, C (2013) Predictors of teehmcal adoption and behavioural
change to transport energy-saving meansures in response to climate change Energy policy 61,
pp.1055-1062
3 Chiang (2018) Exploring community risk perceptions of climate change - A case study of a
flood-prone urban area of Taiwan Cities, pp.42-51
4 Dang Dinh Thang (2013) Nhan thiic ve bign ddi khi hau va danh gia ciia ngudi dan cho chinh sach
giam thieu tac ddng: Nghien ciiu tiardng hgp Thanh phd Hd Chi Minh, Viet Nam Tgp chi Khoa hgc vd Phdt trien, tap 11, sd 4, tr.519-592 http://www.vnua.edu,vn/tapchi/
Upload/1292013-tc so 4.2013 582-592.pdf
5 DOENI (2012) Public perceptions on climate change in Northern Ireland 2012
http://vAvw.doeni.gov.uk/public_perception_on_elimate_cbange_report_2012.pdf
PHAT T R I E N B E N V O N G V U N G Q U Y E N 9, SO 3 (9/2019)