Ddy la Nganh ddt may Viet Nam ndi chung mot dde thu cua ngdnh, do ddt may dffdc coi la ddng va Vinatex ndi rieng da va dang ddng lffc nguydn mlu cua thdi ky tien edng nghiep d cac g6p nh
Trang 1Du" bao nhu cau nguon nhan li/c Tap doan Det May Viet Nam giai doan 2020-2025
tam nhin den nam 2030
TA VAN CANH*
Tom tSt
Qudn ly dff bdo Id mdt trong nhffng khia cgnh chu ye'u cua "chdt lugng todn dien" trong cdc hogt ddng qudn ly nguon nhdn luc Nghien cffu thuc hiin hoi quy luye'n linh theo chudi thdi gian cho du bdo nhu cdu ngudn nhdn Itxc tgi Tap dodn Del May Viet Nam (Vlnatex) Dong thdi, tdc dgng tff chuyen djch ca cd'u lao dgng vd thay ddi ndng sud't lao ddng trong ndi ngdnh del may trong bdi cdnh cudc Cdch mang Cong nghiep 4.0 (CMCN4.0) de kiem nghiim lgi dubdo Kit qud nghiin cffu dUa ra dff bdo, lao ddng lgi cdc doanh nghiip thudc Vinatex co xu hudng gidm ddn, trong khi ca cdu lao ddng co su dich chuyen mgnh tff lao ddng gidn dan sang lao dgng ky thudt do yeu cdu cua CMCN 4.0; dong thdi xdc nhdn, CMCN 4.0 co ldm dnh hudng di'n lao dgng ngdnh del may noi chung, luy nhiin mffc do tdc dgng den bii'n dgng nhdn luc khong qud ldn
Tff khoa: CMCN 4.0, ngdnh det may nguon nhdn lffc, Vinatex
Summary
Prediction is one of the key aspects of "comprehensive quality " in human resource management This research carries out linear regression using lime series data lo forecasi demand for human resource at Vietnam National Textile and Garment Group (Vinatex) Also, shift-share analysis (SSA) is employed to measure the impaci of labor restructuring and changes in labor productivity in the textile and garment industry in the context of the Fourth Industrial tends to decrease, while labor structure witnesses a strong shift from simple labor to technical labor due to requirements of the Fourth Industrial Revolution The outcome also confirms that the Revolution has an impact on labors in textile and garment industry in general bul the Infiuence on manpower fluctuations is not too large
Keywords: the Fourth Industrial Revolution, textile and garment industry, human resources Vinatex G\(J\ THIEU da sd (trdn 80%), ddng thdi ty Id lao dong cd trinh dp
pho' thdng chffa qua dao tao Idn (xa'p xi 70%) Ddy la Nganh ddt may Viet Nam ndi chung mot dde thu cua ngdnh, do ddt may dffdc coi la ddng
va Vinatex ndi rieng da va dang ddng lffc nguydn mlu cua thdi ky tien edng nghiep d cac g6p nhieu vao sff phdt trid'n kinh te' - nffdc phdt trie'n va dang phat trien (Natsuda, Goto vd
xa hdi cua dd't nffde Trong nhieu ndm, Thoburn, 2010) vdi may mdc, trang thid't bi va edng kim ngach xud't kha'u nganh del may nghd san xua't tffdng dd'i lacjiau
ludn dffng diff hai, chi sau nganh dien tu" Ngay nay, vdi sffphdt tnen manh me eua cdng nghd (Thudn, 2018) va chid'm ty trpng xa'p xi thdng tin, internet, mang khdng day yd tff ddng hda, sff 15% tdng GDP ca nffdc (VIRAC, 2019) ke't hdp giffa ehung da tao ndn cdn sd't dffdc goi la cudc
Ve nhdn Iffc so vdi cac nganh cdng CMCN 4.0 da ddn de'n su\ dodn rang robot se thay the' nghiep khdc, edng nghiep ddt may la de'n 86% lao ddng nganb ddt may hidn nay (Chang va ngdnh cd sd Iffdng lao ddng nff chie'm Huynh 2016) va do dd se cd thay dd'i ldn ve cd cau lao
*TS., Trffdng Dai hgc Cong nghiep Det May Ha Hoi
Nga\ nhdn bdi; 28/05/2020: Ngd\ phdn hien: 20/6/2020; Ngdy duyet ddng • 25/6/2020
Trang 2thdch thffc ldn ve lao ddng dd'i vdi nganh va nen kinh
ti Bdi, nganh ddt may dffdc coi la mpt trong ba ITnh
vffe phat trie'n trpng did'm cua Chinh phii, dffdc cu the
hda trong Quye't dinh sddS/QD-TTg, ngay 18/01/2017
Quyd'tdinh sd3218/QD-BCT, ngay 11/04/2014 cua Bp
Cdng Thffdng ve vide phe duyet Quy hoach phat trien
tam nhin de'n nam 2030
Ddnh gid tde ddng cua CMCN 4.0 den nganh ddt
may, xem xet mffe dp anh hffdng bid'n ddng nhu cau
nhan lffc, tff dd cd nhffng khuydn nghi chinh sach phil
hdp de tao the^chu ddng trong ffng phd, mang tinh cd'p
nhu c^u ngudn nhan lffc tai Vinatex, de suy rpng cho
nhu cau lao ddng nganh det may Viet Nam ndi ehung,
c a SCf LY THUYET VA PHL/ONG PHAP
NGHIEN CLfU
Cd sof ly thuyd't
Dff bdo nhu cau nhan lffc la viec dffa trdn phan tich
cdc md'i lidn hd qua lai giffa nhu c^u nhan lffc vdi cdc
va dinh hffdng trong tffdng lai Ngffdi ta thffdng dffa
vdo cdc md hinh kinh td' Iffdng dd' dff bdo tdng nhu cau
nhan lffc cho cac nganh hoae eho tffng nganh kinh te
v^ ly thuyd't dff bdo da hinh thanh nen mdt so md hinh
dff bao ve nhu cau nhan lffc trong dai han va ngan ban,
tieu bieu cd mdt sd'md hinh diT bao sau:
- Md hinh Lotus (dffde xay dffng dffa trdn md hinh
kinh te' vT md lidn nganh do nhdm Infomm (nhdm
nghien cffu thudc Dai hpc Maryland cua My) thffc hien
Lao dpng - Thffdng binh va Xa hdi) tff nam 2009 He
thd'ng md hinh hda eiia md hinh nay cd tinh cha't dai
han, cd the dff bdo cho 10 nam hoae xa hdn cho tffdng
lai eua nen kinh te' va thi trffdng lao ddng,
- Md hinh ca sd BLS do Cue Thd'ng kd lao ddng cua
My (US Bureau of Labor Statistics | thffc hidn Day
la md hinh dff bao mang tinh vT md da nganh, dffdc
chia thanh 6 bffdc thffc hien: Lffc Iffdng lao dpng; Tdng
trffdng kinh td'chung; Cau san pham trong nffdc (GDP)
chia theo nganh; Dau ra - dau vao; Nhan lffc theo
nganh; Nhdn lffc theo nghe Mdi thdnh phan dffdc giai
quye't tuan Iff vdi kd't qua cua tffng yd'u td'dau vdo cho
cac thanh phan kd' tid'p va vdi mpt so' ke't qua cho phep
quay trd Iai bffdc trffdc dd Mdt trong nhffng thd' manh
cua md hinh BLS Id ke'l qua dff bdo cbi tid't cho cdc
nganh va nghe nghidp, dieu nay dac biet hffu ieh khi
dff bdo cho nhdm nganh nghe cu the,
- Md hinh lER (The Institute of Employment Rights
- UK) do Vien ve Quyen cua Ngffdi lao ddng cua Anh
thffc hidn Ve phffdng phdp ludn, md hinh nay cd ban
gid'ng md hinh BLS cua My Die'm khac ciia md hinh
(khi lao ddng nam hoac nff khong the thay thd'eho nhau do ydu cau nghd nghidp)
- Md hinh lAB do Vidn Nghidn cffu
Viec lam eua Dffc thffc hidn Diem khdc bidt eua md hinh nay la trong dff bao Iffe Iffdng lao ddng cd tinh dd'n cac dac tinh, nhff: ngffdi lao ddng dang lam vide, gia nhap mdi hoae iao ddng di cff, nhap cff, dan sdvd ty Id diam gia lffc Iffdng lao dpng
Ve ly thuyd't, edc md hinh dff bao deu dffa trdn 2 phffdng phap dinh Iffdng
va dinh tinh Phffdng phap dinh Iffdng sff dung mdt so' md hinh todn hoc xde
va theo cdc ye'u to' dd' dff bdo mdt cdch djnh Iffdng mffc do, ty le cua qud trinh hay hidn tffdng trong tffdng lai Phffdng phap dff bad dinh tinh dffdc thffc hidn thdng qua viec phdn tich xu thd'ddc trffng van dpng eiia hien tffdng, tff dd cho cdc hinh dff bao thffdng dffa trdn cdc phffdng phdp chuydn gia, phffdng phap thd'ng kd, kinh te' Iffdng va md hinh can bang tdng the (CGE)
Phffdng phap nghien cihi Nghidn cffu sff dung mo hinh Lotus (Long - Term Occupation and Traning Utilization System) dd' thifc hien cdc dff kinh te' vl md Bang Vdo Ra, sd' Udu ve lffc Iffdng lao ddng nganh ddt may vd Dau
ra la lao ddng cd vide lam trong ngdnh,
ly le tha't nghiep trong tffdng lai Md hinh Lotus dff bdo eho 10 nam hodc xa hdn cho tffdng lai cua tang trffdng nganh dpt may va thi trffdng lao ddng nganh del may Viet Nam Tdm die'm eua md hinh nay la nhu cau lao dpng eua nganh va nhffng yeu cau ve dao tao de phat trien ngudn cung ffng lao dpng can thie't ddp ffng nhffng nhu cdu dd Md hinh chii y den ky nang nghe ciia lao ddng, de xdc dinh ndi nao thffa, ndi nao thie'u cdc loai cung de xua't mot pham vi phdn tich rpng cho cac van de lao ddng trong npi nganh, nhffng anh hffdng ciia chinh sdch kinh td'
vT md khdc nhau
Nghien cffu nay sff dung ddng thdi ca
2 phffdng phdp dinh Iffpng va dinh tinh
de dffa ra cae dff bdo vd nhu cau nguon nhdn lffc ciia Vinatex va suy rpng ra cho todn nganh det may Viei Narn Phffdng phdp dinh Iffdng hdi quy luyen linh theo chudi thdi gian cho dff bdo nhu cau ngudn nhan lffc Vinatex giai doan 2020-2025
234
Trang 3diing phffdng phdp SSA kiem nghiem lai
dff bao vdi gia dinh Vinatex ffng dung
CMCN 4.0 vdo sdn xua't
Vide lffa chpn dia ban nghien ciJu khi
su" dung 2 phffdng phap la hdi quy theo
chudi thdi gian vd ngoai suy ham xu thd'
d^ dff bao ve nhu cau nguon nhan lffc Id
rd^t quan trpng, nd lien quan dd'n kd't qua
Clia nghien cffu Vide lffa chpn Vinatex
Idm dia ban nghien effu dffde can cff vao:
Thff nhdt, day la tap doan ldn, tap
trung nhieu doanh nghidp hang dau trong
nganh det may cd nffdc
Thff hai, cac doanh nghiep cua Vinatex
bao gom du ca cdc doanh nghidp sdi, det,
nhudm va may cd thd dai didn cho nganh
det may Viet Nam
Thd ba dd' cd the' van dung CMCN
4.0 vao doanh nghidp, thi dieu kien la
doanh nghidp dd du manh ve tdi chinh va
quan tri Do do, chi cd cdc doanh nghiep
\dn mdi cd the' ddp ffng dffdc nhffng ydu
cau nay, trong khi Vinatex quan Iy nhieu
doanh nghidp Idn eiia nganh det may,
ndn chpn Vinatex la hdp ly (Bdi vii'l sff
dting cdch vie't so thdp phdn theo chudn
qudc li)
KET QUA NGHIEN CUU
Thd'ng kd md ta m§u
Vinatex la mdt tap dodn ldn trong
ngdnh ddt may Vidt Nam Hien nay Tap
dodn quan ly 45 ddn vi thanh vien, trong
do cd 24 tdng cdng ty va edng ty may,
nhff: Tdng Cdng ty May 10, Tong Cdng
ly May Dffc Giang, Tdng Cdng ty May
Hda Thp, Tdng Cong ty May Hffng Ydn,
Td'ng Cdng ty May Nhd Be, Tdng Cdng
ty cd phan May Vidt Tid'n,, Vinatex cdn
quan ly hdn 12 doanh nghidp ldn san
xua't vd kinh doanh sdi, nhff: Td'ng Cdng
ty Cd phan Sdi Phu Bai, Tdng Cdng ty
Viet Thang hoac Tdng Cong ty Co phan
Phong Phu va trdn 10 cdng ty ve ddt vai
khde, vdi tong sd'lao ddng trdn 80 nghin
ngffdi (Vinatex, 2016, 2017, 2018)
Cdc mat hdng san xua't eiia Vinatex
bao gdm: sdi, vdi, hang may mac, khan
va cdc sdn pha'm khac Trong dd, cac
doanh nghiep may va sdi ddng gdp
doanh thu nhilu nha't eho td'ng gid tri san
xua't cua Tap doan (Bang 1)
Ve cd ca'u nhan lffc, Hinh 1 cho thay
lao dpng phd thdng chid'm da so' trong ta't
cd cac nhdm ngdnh cua Vinatex Ddng
chii y la nganh may cd gia tri ddng gdp
C U A V I N A T E X
/ T T
1
2
3
4
5 Tong gia tri
Sanph^m
Sdi Vdi May Khan KhSc
GUtnCVND)
8,162.5 2,456.7 33,342.0 1.494.4 3.744 4 49,200 0
H I N H 1: C d CACI TRIMH DQ LAO DQNG KY T H U A T
TAl VINATEX
— M
• h
• TC/Cao ding • Dal hoE Mguon Ket qua khao sat,2019
BANG 2: CCJ GAG LAO DQNG PHAN THEO CHCTC NANG
TT
A
1
2
3
B
!
2
3
Lo^i Iao dOng trong doanh nghiap
Doanh ngtii^p si^i, det, nhuOm Can bo quan ly Can bo ky thual Cong nhan ky thuiit Doanh nghiep may va thcfi trang Can bo quan ly
Can bfl ky thual Cong nhanky thuat
TJI«(%)
13
22
65
7
5
88 iNguon Ket qua khao sat 2 0 1 '
BANG 3: THONG KE NHAN L^fC TAP DOAN QUA CAC N A M
Nfim
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Lao d$ng dSu niiin
94.449 77.236 7«.911 83.790 85.921 83.617 79.798 82.353 80.626
Lao d$ng cu6i nSm
93,605 97,449 77,236 79,361 80,330 83,135 83,782 83,625 78,909
ldn nha't vao doanh thu Tap doan, nhffng ty le lao ddng
ed trinh dp phd thdng lai chid'm xa'p xi 90%, edn lao ddnf cd trinh dp dai hpc va trdn dai hpc chi chid'm dffdi 7% Dieu nay dffdc Iy giai bdi nganh may dffdc chia ldm nhieu cdng doan mdi cdng doan ehi thffc hien mot
so thao tde gian ddn lap lai do do lao ddng chi can
235
Trang 4TWng ke bdi quy ^
R
R-R-dieu chinh
Sai so chuan hoa
Bien quan sat
0.5611013 0.4126144 0.1634028 5.7170571
18
ANOVA
Hoi quy
P h k dif
Tong
He so'
chan
TT
mngsg
88.964771
-0J398688
df
1
16
17 Sai so
diuan hoa
2.811433
0.259732
t
31,64393
-2 07856
SS
141.2116 522.9559 664.1674
P
7,4436
0.054108
Dirdi 95%
83 0(M-8
-1 09048
MS
141 2116
32 68474
Tren 95%
94 92474
0.010739
F
4 320412
Dirdi 95%
83 0048 -1.09048
Y nghta F
0.054108
Tren 95%
94 92474
0 010739
BANG 4: KET QUA HOI QGY TGYEN TINH
TT
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1]
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
Nam
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
KJ
2
S« LB (1.000)
94
93
77
97
78
77
83
79
85
80
83
84
79
83
81
83
81
78
MA (2)
94
85
87
88
78
80
81
82
83
82
84
82 8]
82
82
82
80
CMA (2) 89.250 86.000 87.250 82.500
78 750
80 500 81.500 82.250 82.000 82.500
82 500
81 250 81.500 82.000 82.000 80.750
It
1 05 1.08 0.88 1.18 0.99 0.96
I 02 0.96 1.04 0.97
1 01 1.03 0.97 1.01 0.99 1.03
SI
0 98 1.03 0.98 1.03 0.98 1.03 0.98
1 03 0.98
103
0 98 1.03 0.98 1.03 0.98 1.03 0.98
103
0 98 1.03 0.98 1.03
0 98 1.03 0.98 1.03 0.98
1 03 0.98 1.03
Ds 95.484
90 536
78216
94 430 79.232 74.960 84.311 76.907 86.342 77.880 84.311 81.774
80 248 80.801 82.279 80.801 82.279 75.933
Tt 88.425 87.885 87.345 86.805 86.265 85.726 85.186 84.646 84.106 83.566 83.026
82 486
81 946
81 407 80.867 80.327 79.787
79 247 78.707 78.167 77.628 77.088 76.548 76.008
75 468 74.928 74.388 73.848 73.309 72.769
Di/bio
87 0503 90.2773 85.9873 89.1682 84.9244
88 059 83.8614 86.9499 82.7984 85.8408 81.7355 84.7317 80.6725 83.6225 79.6096 82.5134 78.5466 81.4043 77.4837
80 2951 76.4207
79 186 75.3578 78.0769
74 2948 76.9678 73.2319 75.8586
72 1689
74 7495
gian nha't dinh id cd the thffc hidn dffpc Bay cung la cd sd de quan tam dd'n vide lao dpng ndy se bi thay thd' bdi robot hidn dieu nay, thi nhu eau lao dpng cd the se giam di rat nhieu
Lao ddng cua Tdp dodn dffdc phan theo chffc nang d Bang 2, theo do cd ca'u lao dpng la quan ly nganh sdi, del, nhudm cao hdn ty Id lao ddng Id quan ly nganh may xd'p xi 2 Ian (13% so vdi 7%) Nhan lffc cua Vinatex bid'n dpng theo cac nam (Bang 3) Nhin chung sdlffdng nhdn lffc cd xu hffdng giam qua cdc nam (tff 2011-2019), lao ddng cudi nam vd lao ddng ddu nam deu cd sff chenh lech nhd't dinh, Dff lidu thd'ng ke Bang 3 se
Id cd sd de dff bdo lao ddng cua Vinatex giai doan 2020-2025
H& quy tiiy6n tuih theo chu^ thoS ^an
Cac thanh phan bie'n so' cua hdm hdi quy dffdc dat ten nhff sau:
- Bie'n MA (Moving Average) la bie'n
he so' trffpt trung binh ve so Iffdng lao dpng qua cac nam
Bie'n CMA {Centered Moving Average) Id he sd' trffdt trung binh trung tam nham xdc dinh gid tri trung binh giffa hai gid tn ben nhau
- Bid'n St, It la bie'n thanh phan theo miia (Seasonal component) va bid'n bat thffdng ([regular component) gia tri hai
bid'n nay Id cd sd de dff bao xu hffdng
- Bid'n Ds (Deseasonalize) la bid'n tdch gia tri theo mua, loai bd bd't thffdng
It, hay ndi each khdc Ioai trff cdc diem phu thupc theo thdi diem de tap trung vao xu hffdng dff bao chinh
- Tt la bid'n xu hffdng la phffdng trinh tuyd'n tinh giffa sd Iffdng lao dpng va thdi gian
Bid'n dff bdo chinh Id ke't qua tich hdp giffa cac bid'n tren sau khi da Ioai bd nhffng ba't thffdng
Kdt qua cho tha'y cd moi quan he tuyd'n tinh giffa bien "Nam" vd bie'n "Sd Iffdng lao ddng" tai p = 0.054108; quan
he tuyen tinh nghich tai t = - 0.5398688 (t< 0), hay ndi cdch khdc Id cff sau moi nam, thl lao ddng cd xu hffdng giam di (Hinh 2)
Ket qua dff bdo Bang 4 cho tha'y, dff lieu dff bdo cang ve ,sau cang gan dat dd'n
dp chinh xac Ld'y gid tri tff nam 2016 trd lai da\ thi dff lieu dff bdo cd the tin cay dffdc (Bang 3) vdi sai sdcd the cha'p nhan dffpc (tdi da p = <0.05) Nhu" vay
236
Trang 5giam xud'ng cdn xa'p xi 75 nghin lao dpng
hodc 72 nghin lao ddng tffdng ffng vdi
giam 6% hodc 10%
Dff bao ngoai suy v ^ gia dinh Vinatex
ihig dung CMCN 4.0 vao san xuS't
Trdn cd sd suy ludn vdi cdn cff dffa
tren cdc bid'n sd' lidn quan de'n nhu cau
cau nhan lffc nham dap ffng cac chi tieu
de ra cua doanh nghiep Ddy la hinh thffc
suy didn cd dp ehinh xdc dang dn cay
thffdng dp dung trong mdi trffdng bid'n
dgng va khdng tudn theo quy ludt
Vdi edc chi tidu nen tang, nhff: Gia tn
san xua't; Kim ngach xua't kh^u; Doanh
dpng va phdng va'n quan sdt tai doanh
nghidp, vdi gia dinh ty Id ffng dung
CMCN 4.0 theo cac ty le khac nhau
tiiy theo linh vffc va dde diem loai hinh
doanh nghidp, sau khi tinh toan cho ra
kd't qua dff bao so' lieu cac chi tidu eua
Vinatex nhff Bang 5
Bang 5 eho tha'y, viec ffng dung thanh
tffu CMCN 4.0 vdo cac nhdm ngdnh spi,
ddt, nhudm va may cdng cao, thi ty Id lao
dong giam di tffdng ffng, O day can lffu y
rang, nganh sdi la nganh cd cd hdi ffng
dung CMCN 4.0 eao nha't, vi nhieu cdng
vide lap di lap lai, hidn dang van hdnh
he thd'ng may tff ddng va ban tff dong
Theo tinh todn, hidn nay, ty le cac nhd
mdy sdi ffng dung thanh tffu CMCN 4.0
cdn rd't ban ehe', ehu yd'u d mffe ffng dung
tff ddng hda, chff chffa thffc sff cd sff dieu
hanh qua he thd'ng mdy chu, giao tid'p
qua mang khdng day, cdc robot tff hanh,
tri tue nhan tao trong vide kie'm tra chat
Iffdng san ph^m
Nganh may rat khd ffng dung CMCN
4.0 do dac thil san pham Mac du cd
Robot Sewbo cd the may ao Tshirt hoan
toan tff dpng, tuy nhien dd'i vdi cac san
pham may nhieu ldp vdi cde dffdng cong
khdng theo quy luat, thi chffa cd he thd'ng
trff ban tay con ngffdi Ke't qua phdng
va'n tff lanh dao cdc doanh nghidp ldn
nhff: Tdng Cdng ty May 10, Tong Cdng
Cd phan Ddt may Hda Thp, Tong Cdng
ty May Dffc Giang cho tha'y, cac doanb
nghidp may tff nay dd'n nam 2030 chi cd
the ffng dung td'i da CMCN 4.0 d mffc
20% Hay ndi cdch khac, chi ed 20%
cong doan san xua't dffdc tff dpng hda
dieu khien bdi robot va cdc he thd'ng tinh
BANG 5: KET QGA Dd BAO NGOAI SGY TRONG DIEU KlgN
CO dNG DPNG CMCN 4.0 CGA VINATEX Chi tifeu/Nam
Gia Iri san xuai cong nghiep (Ty VND)
Kim ngach xuat khau (Tneu USD) Doanh thu (Ty VND)
MUe do tiJdong hoa theo CMCN 4 0
Do'i vdl nganh sdi
D^i v^ nganh det- nhuom D6'i vdi nganh may Lao dong trong cac DN sdl (ngirdi) Lao dong trong cac DN del, nhuom (ngu'di) Lao dong trong cac DN may (ngu'di) Tong so' lao d^ng tai cac doanh nghiep
2020
46,258,3
2.987-00
50,922,00
10%
5%
2%
17,510
20,798
41,958
80,266
2025
55,198,0
3.957.50
66,216.50
30%
15%
10%
14,271
17,678
37,762
69,711
2030
67,156.8
5,050,90
88.612 60
70%
40%
20%
11,417
15,027
39,650
66,094
Ghichu
Muc tieu doanh thu diT kiSn (tang xap xi 10%-21%/nam) then tinh loan
ve nha may thong minh
Mu'c do tac dong cua CMCN
4 0 den nganh del may/nha may thong minh
Cd scf lay ty 1^ % diTa tren
nghe - (if dong h6a va xu the tif dgng h6a cua CMCN 4.0
Dff lieu du'dc tinh toan co tinh de'n he so tang tru'dng binh quan hieu qui lao dong, miJc lao dong can c6
de dap iJng muc lieu kim ngach xuat khau gap 2 lan nam 2020 va he so' iftig dung cong ngh^ 4.0
xao khdc, nhff: thffc tai do (Virtual Reality) bode tang effdng thffc td' (Augmented Reahty) Do vay, ty Id lao ddng bi giam di khdng qua Idn nhff cdc dff bao eua eae tae gia trffdc dd
Can cff vao cd cd'u lao ddng (Bang 2) va ke't qua dff bao (Bang 4 va Bang 5), de eho ra kd't qud dffbao vdi gid dinb Vinatex ffng dung CMCN 4.0 vao san xua't Bang ddi, tuy nhien ty Id can bd ky thuat va ty Id lao ddng trffc tid'p cd sff thay doi idn theo tffng giai doan Cu the, ne'u dau nbiSig nam 2020, ly le edn bd ky thudt (nhffng ngffdi dffdc dao tao bai ban ve ehuydn mdn va ky thuat) tff 22% dd'i vdi sdi, del, nhudm va 5% ddi vdi may, thi de'n nhffng nam 2030, so'lffdng nay tang ldn 45% dd'i vdi sdi, 35% dd'i vdi del, nhudm va 25% dd'i vdi may Nhff vdy, chuyen dan tff lao ddng gian ddn sang lao dpng ky thuat (xa'p xi 50% dd'i vdi nganh sdi; 35% dd'i vdi del nhudm
vd 25% do'i vdi may) Dieu nay phan dnh rdng, CMCN 4.0 doi hdi ngffdi lao dpng can phai nang eao lay nghe
can dffdc dao tao bai ban de dap ffng ydu cau ve cdng nghd va td'c dp ddp ffng ddi vdi khach hang
Ve sd' Iffdng Iao ddng dff bao dd'n nam 2030 so' lao dpng cua Vmatex se giam xudng xa'p xi 82'/; so vdi
hien nay (66.094 so vdi 80.266) do viec day manh ffng
dung cac thanh tffu eua CMCN 4,0, trong do mpt sd cdng vide gian ddn cd tinh lap lai sd dffdc thffe hien bdi robot va cae he ihd'ng Iff dpng khae
237
Trang 6^,^
D^
Coaa
2010
S6
T'-'S
7917
Tyl*
Can bp Kl
So
10 526
Tyl^
->T
„
So
11 iS""
61823
Tyl?
65
80.266
So
1855
6,797
T>
c"»nbnKT~
«
^
Tyl?
69,711
So
8 B 4
46,661
Ty
ClibvQL
So
1.953 :."76
6213
Tylt
% 13
13
,
2030 ClibfKT
So 5.13-5.259 9.913 20.109
ry
lf«B
45
35
,,;
CNKT
So
4 793
7,814 26.962 39.571
Tylf
%
42
52
68 e«.094
KET LUAN
So' Iffdng lao dpng eua Vinatex cd xu hffdng giam
dan theo tffng nam, Mac dii hai phffdng phdp thffc hidn
khdc nhau ve gdc dd tid'p can, vide dff bdo deu cho ke't
qua tffdng dffdng nhau, xet ve phffdng didn sut giam
nhu cau lao ddng
- O phffdng phdp thff nha't, dffa vao xu thd'thay ddi
qua eae nam vd cac bid'n dpng ba't thffdng cho ke't qua,
lao ddng giam xa'p xi 10% sau 5 nam, ddng nghTa vdi
vide giam mdi nam xa'p xi 1.600 lao ddng, trong bd'i
nhff: cac dai dich hoac suy thoai kinh te'ba't thffdng,
- Vdi phffdng phdp thff hai, gia dinh vide ffng dung
eae thdnh tffu CMCN 4.0, thi sd'lao ddng cd xu hffdng
giam nhieu hdn (69,711 lao ddng so vdi 74,7495 lao
ddng) Tuy vdy, sff chenh lech ndy la khdng ldn, bdi
khdng phai doanh nghidp nao cung ed du kha nang
ffng dung CMCN 4.0 trong vdng 5 nam tdi, xet ca ve
mdt tdi chinh, cdng nghe va nhan sff van hdnh Hdn nffa, ke cd kich ban ffng dung manh me CMCN 4.0 vao nam 203(J, thi
ty Id lao ddng chi giam xudng td'i da nghidp ludn dat chi tidu tang trffdng v | nang suat, doanh thu, kim ngach xuat
khau va do dd, nhu cau lao ddng ludn d
mffc eao
Nghien cffu chffng mmh rdng, cho dii cde doanh nghidp del may cd ffng dung CMCN 4.0 d mffc nao di nffa thi ty Id lao ddng bi suy giam cung khdng ldn, nhff mdt sd bdo cao da cdng bd' trffdc dd Hdn nffa, viec ffng dung CMCN 4.0 cung can
ed Id trinh dad tao ve nhdn lffc va vi vay,
sd khdng ed sff thay ddi hdng loat, sdlao ddng hien cd se dffdc dao tao chuyen doi
va thich nghi vdi CMCN 4.0,0
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO
1 Bd Cdng Thffdng (2008) Quye't dinh sd 39/2008/QD-BCT, ngdy 23/10/2008 phe duyet Chffang
trinh ddo tgo ngudn nhdn lffc ngdnh Del May Viel Nam din ndm 2015, tam nhin den ndm 2020
2 Vinatex (2016-2018) Bdo cdo thudng nien cdc ndm tff ndm 2016 di'n 2018
3 VIRAC (2019), Bdo cdo Tieu chudn Ngdnh Del may VietNam Ql/2019
4 VIRAC (2019), Bdo cdo chuyen sdu ngdnh del may Industry Reports: Cdng ty Co phan Nghidn
cffu Nganh va Tff vd'n Viet Nam - Singapore Branch
5 Tran Xuan Cau, Mai Qud'c Chanh (2008) Gido trinh kinh te ngudn nhdn lffc, Nxb Dai hpc
Kinh te' Qud'c dan
6 Thudn, L H (2018) Thay ddi di bid phd Bdo cdo ngdnh del may In FPT Securities
7 Phd Thi Kim Chi (2012) Mot so phuang phdp dff bdo ngudn nhdn lUc d Viet Nam, truy cap tff
http://\vww.dubaonhanluchcme.gov.vn/tin-tuc/l8l9.mot-so-phuong-phap-du-bao-nguon-nhan-luc-o-viet-nam.html
8 Jae-Hee Chang and Phu Huynh (2016) ASEAN in transformation the future of jobs at risk of
automation International Labour Organization
9 Natsuda, K., Goto K and Thoburn, J (2010) Challenges to the Cambodian garment industry
in the global garment value chain The European Journal of Development Research 22(4) 469-493
10 Tracey, William R., Ed (1994) Human Resources Management and Development Handbook
Second Edition AMACOM
11 Wright P M., McMahan, G C and McWilliams, A (1994) Human resources and sustained
competitive advantage a resource-based perspective Internalional journal of human resource
management, 5(2) 301-326
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