Investigating the competitiveness of vietnams agricultural sector a multi level approach

INVESTIGATINGTHECOMPETITIVENESSOFV IETNAM’SAGRICULTURALSECTOR:AMULTI- LEVELAPPROACH Major:DoctorDissertationonDevelopmentEconomicsCo de:62310105 ACADEMICADVISERS: 1.. Dr.TừVănBình Adisse

DOCTOROFPHILOSOPHYDISSERTATION

HoChiMinhCity,December2017

INVESTIGATINGTHECOMPETITIVENESSOFV IETNAM’SAGRICULTURALSECTOR:AMULTI-

LEVELAPPROACH

Major:DoctorDissertationonDevelopmentEconomicsCo de:62310105

ACADEMICADVISERS:

1 Assoc Prof.Dr TrầnTiếnKhai

2 Assoc Prof Dr.TừVănBình

AdissertationsubmittedtotheUniversityofEconomicsHoChiMinhCityforthedegr

eeofDOCTOROF PHILOSOPHY

HoChiMinhCity,December2017

HoàngV ă n Thọ,tomymother-TrầnThịSang,andtomydaughter-

Thisdissertationisdedicatedtothememoryofmyfather-HoàngNguyễnMinhChâu

“ThemoreIstudyscience,themoreIbelieveinGod”

Firstofall,IwouldliketoexpressmybestgratitudetoProf.TrầnTiếnKhai,Prof.MatthewGorton,andProf CarmenHubbard.Prof TrầnTiếnKhaibringsmeinther e s e a r c

h careerwiththeinitiallesson,advice,andpassion.Prof.MatthewGortonandProf.CarmenH u b b a r d r a i s e meupt o t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e s e a r c h s t a n d a r d s w i t h t h e

ad vi ce, thelesson,andtheresearchcooperationopportunities

Second,Iamdeeplythankfultomyteachers:Dr.PhạmKhánhNam,Prof.NguyễnT r ọng

H o à i , P r o f L i o n e l H u b b a r d , P r o f P e t e r G o l d s m i t h , P r o f TừV ă n B ì n h, D r T r ư ơ n g ĐăngThụy,andProf.NguyễnNgọcVinhforthelessons,guides,andadvice.Third,Iamreallyindebtedtomycolleagues:Mr.NguyễnKhánhDuy,Ms.NguyễnQuỳnhAn

HồMinhChí.Theycontributetheimportantpartstomyachievementofthisdissertation

Especially,IwouldexpressmygratitudeandrespecttoProf.NguyễnĐôngPhongw h oindirectlyempowermewiththestrategicandexcellentpoliciesforyounglecturers.Moreover,Iamthankfultotheboard ofprofessors,theindependentreviewers,jo ur n

al e d i t o r i a l b oar ds, an d j ou rn al re vi ewe rsf or theirc o n s t r u c t i ve r e v i e w i n g andcomments

Iamwholeheartedlygratefultomyfamilyfortheirlove,trust,support,sharing,ande n c o u r a

g e m e n t Thisdissertationwouldbenevercompletedwithoutthem

HoChiMinhCity,December2017

HoàngVănViệt

I,H o à n g V ă n V i ệ t,d e c l a r e t h a t t h e P h D d i s s e r t a t i o n entitled“ I n v e s t i g a

t i n g a n d Comparingt h e A g r i c u l t u r a l C ompetitivenesso f V i e t n a m ” s t r i c t

l y c o n f o r m s tot h e r e g u l a t i o n s andtherulesofMinistryofEducationandTrainingandtheUniversityofEconomicsH o C h i M i n h C i t y T h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n c o n

t a i n s n o m a t e r i a l t h a t h a s b e e n submittedpreviously,inwholeorinpart,fortheawardofanyotheracademicdegreeo r diploma.Exceptwhereotherwiseindicated,thisdissertationismyownwork

HoChiMinhCity,December,2017

HoàngVănViệt

TABLEOFCONTENTS

LISTOFTABLES v

LISTOFFIGURES vii

LISTOFAPPENDICES viii

LISTOFABBREVIATIONS x

CHAPTER1:INTRODUCTION 1

1.1 Background 1

1.2 Researchgapidentification 6

1.3 Researchobjectivesandquestions 9

1.4 Briefofresearchmethodology,scope,anddata 12

1.5 Expectedsignificanceandcontribution 14

1.6 Thestructureandoutlineof thedissertation 16

CHAPTER2:LITERATURE REVIEW 18

2.1 Definitionofcompetitiveness 18

2.2 Evolution of competitivenesstheory 23

2.3 Frameworksofcompetitiveness 34

2.3.1 Economicandproductionindicators 36

2.3.2 Tradeperformance indices 47

2.4 Summaryandthe generalframeworkofthedissertation 56

CHAPTER3:RESEARCHMETHODOLOGY ANDDATA 60

3.1 Thetradeperformanceindices 60

3.1.1 Revealedcomparativeadvantage(RCA) 60

3.1.2 Relativetradeadvantage(RTA) 61

3.1.3 Normalizedrevealed comparativeadvantage(NRCA) 62

3.1.4 Dynamicsofcomparativeadvantageindicators 64

3.1.5 Complementarityand substitutabilityanalysis 68

3.1.6 Consistencyanalysis 70

3.1.7 Thedataforthetrade performanceindices 71

3.2 TheeconomicandproductionindicatorsinthePAMmodel 72

3.2.1 Privateprofitability(PP -D) 73

3.2.2 Privatecostratio(PCR) 73

3.2.3 Socialprofitability(SP-H) 74

3.2.4 Domesticresourcecost (DRC) 74

3.2.5 Socialcost-benefit (SCB) 75

3.2.6 Nominalprotectioncoefficient(NPC) 75

3.2.7 Effectiveprotectioncoefficient(EPC) 76

3.2.8 Profitabilitycoefficient (PC) 76

3.2.9 Subsidyratiotoproducers(SRP) 77

3.2.10 ThedataandestimationsforthePAMindicators 77

3.2.11 Sensitivityanalysis ofthePAMindicators 82

CHAPTER4:VIETNAM’SAGRICULTURAL TRADECOMPETITIVENESS:T HECROSS-SECTIONSANALYSIS 84

4.1 Vietnam’sagriculturaltradecompetitivenessbytheRCA 84

4.1.1 Measuringthestaticcompetitiveness 84

4.1.2 Analyzingthedynamicsofthe competitivenessindicators 86

4.2 Vietnam’sagriculturaltradecompetitivenessbytheRTA 89

4.2.1 Measuringthestaticcompetitiveness 89

4.2.2 Analyzingthedynamicsof theRTAindicators 91

4.3 Vietnam’sagricultural tradecompetitivenessbytheNRCA 95

4.3.1 Measuringthestaticcompetitiveness 95

4.3.2 Analyzingthedynamicsofof theNRCAindicators 95

4.4 Theconsistenciesof thetradeperformanceindices:sector-ranking 99

CHAPTER5:THEASEANCOUNTRIES’AGRICULTURAL TRADEPATTERN S:T H E CROSS-COUNTRIESANALYSIS 102

5.1 TheagriculturalinternationaltradeperformanceofASEANcountries 103

5.1.1 Agricultural competitivenessbytheRCA 103

5.1.2 Agricultural competitivenessbytheRTA 105

5.1.3 AgriculturalcompetitivenessbyNRCAindex 106

5.1.4 Analyzingthedynamicsofagriculturalcompetitivenessindicators 108

5.2 ThetradeagriculturalcomplementarityoftheASEANcountries 110

5.2.1 Theagriculturaltrade complementarityoftheASEANcountries 110

5.2.2 TheagriculturalexportsimilarityoftheASEANcountries 111

5.2.3 TheagriculturalcomplementaritybySpearmancoefficients 113

5.2.4 Theimpactofexternalmarketsandfactors 116

5.3 Theconsistenciesofthetradeperformanceindices:country-ranking 118

CHAPTER6:THECOMPETITIVENESSOFALTERNATIVEAGRICULTURAL C R O P S : A CASESTUDYOFBENTRE 120

6.1 Measuring thecomparativeadvantageofthealternativecrops 121

6.1.1 Thecomparativeadvantageofrice 121

6.1.2 Thecomparative advantageofcoconut 124

6.1.3 Thecomparativeadvantageofpomelo 126

6.2 Indicatorsandsectorsconsistencyandcomparisonanalysis 129

6.3 Sensitiveanalysisof thecomparativeadvantageindicators 132

6.3.1 Climatechanges 132

6.3.2 Waterandlandcharges 133

6.3.3 Theparametersof assumingchangesofthevariables 134

CHAPTER7:CONCLUSIONANDIMPLICATIONS 137

7.1 Vietnam’sagriculturaltradecompetitiveness 137

7.2 TheASEANcountries’ agricultural tradepatterns 139

7.3 CompetitivenessofalternativeagriculturalproductionsystemsinBenTre 1417.4 Theoreticalanalysis andconclusion 143

7.5 Policyimplications 145

Re-structuringtheagriculturalproduction and tradepattern 146

Maintainingtherankingsofstrongcompetitivenesssectors 147

Expandingandenforcingtheregionaland globalintegration 148

Buildingtheagriculturalproductionmasterplans 150

Promotingsustainable agricultureandadaptingtoclimatechanges 151

LISTOFMYPUBLICATIONS&PROJECTS 1

LISTOFREFERENCES 2

APPENDICES 28

Table2-1:Theevolutionofcompetitivenesstheory 33

Table2-2:Themeasuresofcompetitivenessbylevelofanalysis 35

Table3-1:Theaccountingstructureofpolicyanalysismatrix 72

Table3-2:SampledescriptionsforthePAMindicators 78

Table4-1:Vietnam’stopagriculturalcompetitivenessbytheRCA 85

Table4-2:ThechangeoftheRCAindicatorspositionbetween1997and2014 86

Table4-3:TheOLSestimationresultsfortheRCAindicatorsoverthreeperiods 87

Table4-4:TheclassificationsofRCAvaluesandtheinterpretations 88

Table4-5:TheM-ShorrocksandMarkovtransitionmatrixfortheRCAvalues 88

Table4-6:ThetopgainingandlosingtrendsoftheRCAindicators 89

Table4-7:Vietnam’stopagriculturalcompetitivenessbytheRTA 90

Table4-8:ThechangesoftheRTAindicatorranksbetween1997and2014 91

Table4-9:TheOLSestimationresultsfortheRTAindicatorsoverthreeperiods 92

Table4-10:TheclassificationoftheRTAvaluesandtheinterpretations 93

Table4-11:TheM-ShorrocksandMarkovtransitionmatrixfortheRTAvalues 93

Table4-12:ThetopgainingandlosingtrendsoftheRTAindicators 94

Table4-13:Vietnam’stopagriculturaltradecompetitivenessbytheNRCA 96

Table4-14:ThechangesoftheNRCAindicatorranksbetween1997 and2014 96

Table4-15:TheOLSestimationresultsfortheNRCAindicatorsovertime 97

Table4-16:TheclassificationoftheofNRCAvaluesandtheinterpretations 97

Table4-17:TheMarkovtransitionprobabilitymatrixfortheNRCAindicators 98

Table4-18:ThetopgainingandlosingtrendsoftheNRCAindicators 99

Table4-19:TheconsistenciestheRCA,theRTA,andtheNRCAbysector-ranking 100T a b l e 5-1:TheagriculturalcompetitivenessoftheASEANcountriesbytheRCA

104 Table5-2:ThenumberofstrongagriculturalcompetitivesectorsbytheRCA 105

Table5-3:TheagriculturalcompetitivenessoftheASEANcountriesbytheRTA 106

Table5-5:TheagriculturalcompetitivenessrankingoftheASEANcountries 107

Table5-6:TheagriculturalcompetitivenesspatternsoftheASEANcountries 109

Table5-7:TheMarkovtransition probabilitymatricesresult 109

Table5-8:Theagriculturaltrade complementaritybythe TCI 110

Table5-9:TheagriculturalexportsimilaritiesoftheASEANcountries 112

Table5-10:TheSpearman’srankcorrelationcoefficientsoftheRCAindicators 113

Table5-11:TheSpearman’srankcorrelationcoefficientsoftheRTAindicators 114

Table5-12:TheSpearman’srankcorrelationcoefficientsoftheNRCAindicators 115

Table5-13:Meancoefficientsoftheconsistencybetweentradeindices 119

Table6-1:Rice’sPAMsummaryandcomparativeadvantageindicators(VND) 123

Table6-2:Rice’scomparativeadvantage bythetradeindices 123

Table3:Coconut’sPAMsummaryandcomparativeadvantageindicators(VND) 126T a b l e 6-4:Coconut’scomparativeadvantage bythetrade indices 126

Table5:Pomelo’sPAMsummaryandcomparativeadvantageindicators(VND) 128T a b l e 6-6:Pomelo’scomparative advantagebythetradeindices 128

Table6-7:Comparingthecompetitivenessofdifferentsectorsbyvariousindices 131

Table6-8:Thecomparativeadvantageindicatorswiththelandopportunitycost 132

Table6-9:SensitivityanalysisofthePAMindicatorsbytheclimatechange 133

Table6-10:SensitivityanalysisofthePAMindicatorsbywater &landcharges 134

LISTOF FIGURES

Figure2-1:Thegeneralanalysisframeworkofthedissertation 59

1:ThetrendoftheASEANcountries’agriculturaltradecomplementarity 111F i g u r e 5-

Figure5-2:ThetrendoftheASEANcountries’agriculturalexportsimilarity

112 Figure5-3:ThegeneraltrendoftheSpearman’srankcorrelationcoefficients 115

4:ThesharesofthetopmarketsintheASEAN’stotalagriculturalexport 116F ig ure 5- 5:ThesharesofthetopmarketsintheASEAN’stotalagriculturalimport 117

LISTOFAPPENDICES

Appendix1: Determinantsofcompetitiveness 28

Appendix2: Multidimensionalframeworks 31

Appendix3: Valuechainperformanceapproaches 38

Appendix4:Benchmarking 41

Appendix5: TheASEANcountries’agriculturalsectors 45

Appendix6:Vietnameseagriculturalsector 47

Appendix7: TheAgricultureinBenTreProvince 54

Appendix8:AgriculturalcomparativeadvantagesofVietnambytheRCA 58

Appendix9:AgriculturalcomparativeadvantagesofVietnambytheRTA 59

Appendix10:AgriculturalcomparativeadvantagesofVietnambytheNRCA 60

Appendix11:ASEANcountries’agriculturalcompetitivenessbytheRCAin20156 2 Appendix12:ASEANcountries’agriculturalcompetitivenessbytheRTAin201563 Appendix13:ASEANcountries’agriculturalcompetitivenessbytheNRCAin201565 Appendix14:OLSregressionofASEANcountries’competitivenessindicators 67

Appendix15:ClassesofRCA,RTA,andNRCAvaluesandtheinterpretations 68

Appendix16:MarkovtransitionprobabilitymatrixfortheRCAindex 69

Appendix17:Privateandsocialinputcostof ricesector (1000VND) 71

Appendix18:Privateandsocialinputcostofcoconutsector(1000VND) 71

Appendix19:Privateandsocialinputcostof pomelosector(1000VND) 72

Appendix20:Privateandsocialoutputofricesector (1000VND) 72

Appendix21:Privateandsocialoutputofcoconutsector(1000VND) 73

Appendix22:Privateandsocialoutputofpomelosector (1000VND) 74 Appendix23:Sensitivityanalysisofcompetitivenessindicatorsbytheoutputprices74

Appendix24:Sensitivityanalysisofcompetitivenessindicatorsbythefertilizerprices75A p p e n d i

x 25:Sensitivityanalysisofcompetitivenessindicatorsbythelandrentprices75Appendix26:Sensit ivityanalysisofcompetitivenessindicatorsbythecropyields76

Appendix27:SensitivityanalysisofcompetitivenessindicatorsbytheREER 76

Appendix28:Surveyquestionnaireforcoconutfarmer 77

Appendix29:Survey questionnaireforcoconuttrader/collector 82

Appendix30:Survey questionnaireforcoconutprimary processor 85

Appendix31:Survey questionnaireforcoconut producer/processor 88

EastAsiaFreeTradeAreaEC:

EuropeanCommissionEEU: EurasianEconomicUnion

GeneralDepartmentofVietnamCustomsGSO:

GeneralStatisticsOfficeofVietnamG TT R :GlobalTravel&TourismReport

ITC: InternationalTradeCentre

NCI: NationalCompetitivenessIndex

NPC: NominalProtectionCoefficient

NRCA: NormalizedRevealedComparativeAdvantage

OECD: OrganizationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopmentPAM

PolicyAnalysisMatrix

RelativeTradeAdvantageRXA: RelativeexportAdvantage

WorldCompetitivenessYearbookWEF:

WorldEconomicForumWTO: WorldTradeOrganization

andEuropeanCommunities(EU).VietnamisgoingtosignbilateraltradeagreementswithIsraelandEUFreeTrade Agreement (EFTA) Especially,the future tradeagreementofASEAN

theruraleconomya n d a n i m p o r t a n t s o u r c e o f livelihoodamongstruralpopulation.T h e

r e i s a b o u t 6 7 1 p e r c e n t o f t h e c o u n t r y ’ s p o p u l a t i o n l i v i n g inr u r a l a r e a s

i n 2 0 1 4 ( G S O , 2 0 1 7 ; W B ,

2017).Fifth,moreover, theagriculturalsectorsandruralareascanplaytheimport

antrolesinbothlaborsupplyanddemandmarkets

Thoughachievingadvantagefromthenaturalenvironment,fertilesoilandabundantw at e

r scalef a r m s , n e g a t i v e impacto n thee n v i r o n m e n t , c u l t i v a t i o n l a n d c o n

resourceVietnam’sagriculturalsectorsencountertheproblemsofdominationofsmall-v e r s i o n towardsurbanizationandindustrialization,newchallengesfromclimatechanges,increasinginputcosts,andlowproductivity.Vietnam’sa g r i c u l t u r a l s e c t o r i s m a i n l y b

a s e d onthetraditionaland

land-intensive productionmethods Thismakestheagriculturalsectortobedependentonthenaturalconditionsandmarketsituationsandm a y causethefarmerstheunstableandlowincomes.Moreover,theagriculturalproductmarketsandpricesofVietnamarerelativelyunstableandfluctuatingwithoutthemasteragriculturalp r o d u c t i o n p l a n s i n l o n g t e r m T h

e s e c h a l l e n g e s a n d i s s u e s r e q u i r e t h e g o v e r n m e n t , enterprises,andproducerstore-

structureandplanthegeneralagriculturalsectors.Thefarmershavetomakeproductionchoicesbetweenthealternativecropsint h e i r a r a b l e l a n d s o r f i e l d s t o i n c r e a s e

t h e p r o d u c t i v i t i e s a n d maximizet h e incomessubjecttothefarms’productionconditionsandthemarketdemands

Theconventionaleconomicwisdomwouldproposethatthecountryshouldutilizeitss c a r c e resourcesandspecializeinproducingagriculturalcommoditieswhichhavestrongerc o m p e t i

t i v e a d v a n t a g e s an d g e n e r a t e h ig he ra d d i n g va lu es (Yue t al., 2 01 0) T h e f u n

d a m e n t a l e c o n o m i c p r o b l e m i s h o w t o a l l o c a t e l i m i t e d r e s o u r c e s i n o r d

e r t o en su r e socialwelfare,includingfullemploymentandhighlivingstandardsforalltoda

ya n d inthefuture(Latruffe,2010).However,thescarcityofresourcesforcesustomakechoicesbyansweringthreebasiceconomicquestions:whatgoodstoproduce,howto

p ro du ce, andforwhomtoproduce(Beggetal,2005).Thematterishowtorespondtot h equestionsorwhateconomicindicatorssupportustomakethechoices.Co mp eti t iv en ess i s

a c e n t r a l c o n c e p t a n d m e a s u r e i n s t i m u l a t i n g p o l i c y a n d b u s i n e s s s t r at eg ydiscussionsbypolicymakers,farmers,enterprises,andresearchers.Researchers

andpolicy makersa rei nt er este di nw hi chse ct or s cancon tr ib ut e themostt o nation’seconomicgrowthandtheyoftenturntotheconceptofcompetitiveness asabasisforanalysis.E n t e r p r i s e s a n d farmersa r e i n t e r e s t e d i n w h i c h b u s i n e s s e

s maket h e mostp r o f i t forthemandtheyalsorefertocompetitivenessasakeyindicator(Latruffe,2010).T h e r e s e a r c h e r s a r e i n t e r e s t e d i n w h i c h s e ctorsc a n c o n t r i b u t e

t h e mostt o n a t i o n ’ s economicgrowthandtheyoftenturntotheconcept ofcompetitiveness asabasisforanalysis.Theenterprises andthefarmersareinterestedinwhichbusinesses makethemostprofitforthemandtheyalsorefertocompetitivenessasakeyindicator

Competitivenessis a relativelybroad subject and conceptwhichis related tovariouseconomict h e o r i e s a n d e m p i r i c a l l i t e r a t u r e T h o u g h t h e r e i s m u c h

a g r e e m e n t o n t h e economicandsocialimportanceofcompetitivenessindicatorstomakechoicedecisions,i t i s l e s s c l e a r what exactlycompetitiveness isandwhatitsmostimportant

determinantsofcompetitivenessare ( F i s c he r and S c h o r n b e r g , 2007;Martin, 2003).Theconcept is w i d e l y researchedfromtheclassicaleconomictheoryandemployedinboththeoreticala n d empiricalstudiesfromdifferentpointsofviewbutthereislittleagreementonitsd e f i n i t i o n (BojnecandFerto,2009).Therearevariousframeworkstoassessthec o m p e t i t i v e n e s s a t v a r i o u s l e v e l s w i t h d i f f e r e n t r e s e a r c h o

s s ine c o n o m i c

l i t e r a t u r e aret h e economicindicatorsand thetradeindices These competitivenessapproaches indicatet h e differenteconomic

literatureandprovidediversepolicyimplications.Itis,therefore,n e c e s s a r y tocompareandtesttheconsistencybetweentheseapproaches.

Ford e c a d e s , V i e t n a m a n d t h e A S E A N c o u n t r i e s h a v e p a i d morea t t e n t i o

n tot h e agriculturale x p o r t s t r a t e g i e s b a s e d o n t h e c o m p e t i t i v e a d v a n t a g e t o

u t i l i z e t h e s c a r e n a t u r a l andsocialresourcesandtakeadvantagesoftheregionalandglobalintegrationtomaximizetheeconomicandsocialwelfare.TheestablishmentoftheASEANEconomicCommunity(AEC)in2015withobjectivesofasinglemarket,acompetitiveeconomicr e g i o n , e q u i t a b l e economicdevelopment,a n d

g l o b a l e c o n o m y offersbothopportunitiesandchallenges tothemembercountries.TheAECinvolvesliberalizingtradeingoodsandservices;protectingandpromotinginvestment;n a r r o w i n g d o w n thesocialandeconomicdevelopmentgap;andenhancingthefreeflowofskilledlaborandfreerflowofcapital.Moreover,theASEANhassignedfreetradeagreementswithdialoguepartnercountries suchasAustralia&NewZealand, China,India,J a p a n , a n d R e p u b l i c o f K o r e a w i t h d i f f e r e

n t o b j e c t i v e s , namely,s t r e n g t h e n i n g A S E A N ’ s tradeandeconomicrelationshipwiththepartners,improving theeconomicco mp et it iv en es s o f A S E A N c o u

n t r i e s a s w e l l a s i n c r e a s i n g thel i v i n g s t a n d a r d , enhancingeconomicintegrationofASEANcountries,andcreatingofamoreenormousf r ee market.TheRCEPisproposedforafreetradeagreementbetweenthesepartnersw i t h t a k i n g i n t o

a c c o u n t theEAFTAandtheCEPEA.TheAECofferstheopportunitiesi n theformofahugemarketofUS$2.6trillionandover622millionpeoplein2014.T h e A S E A N a r e a i

s c o l l e c t i v e l y t h e t h i r d l a r g e s t e c o n o m y i n Asiaa n d t h e s e v e n t h largeste c

o n o m y int h e world( A S E A N , 2 0 1 7 ) P e t r i e t a l

( 2 0 1 2 ) b e l i e v e t h a t t h e A S E A N e c o n o m i c i n t e g r a t i o n c o u l d g a i n a similarresultt o t h o s e comingf r o m t h e E u r o p e a n market,amountingto5.3percentoftheregion’sincome.Thebenefitscouldb e d o u b l e d i f r e g i o n a l i n t e g r a t i o n a l s o

l e a d s t o n e w f r e e t r a d e a g r e e m e n t s w i t h keyexternalpartnersandthewholeregionwillshareinthesebenefits

However,therearevariouschallengestotheAECmembercountriesandobstaclest

o t h e A E C p r o g r e s s A l t h o u g h t h e A S E A N c o u n t r i e s a r e d i v e r s e i n termso f

s o c i a l , economic,andpolitical structures,theyareinasimilargeographicalarea andnatural

conditions( S i a h e t a l , 2 0 0 9 ) a n d t h e s e i s s u e s m a y c a u s e t h e c o u n t r i e

s t o b e c o m e substitutableorcompetitivefor eachotherinagriculturalproducts.TheeconomicintegrationamongtheAECmembersencounterstheinternalobstaclesconsistingoftheimportsubstitutionpoliciesofindustrialization;thesmallextentofintra-

ASEANtrade;a n d t h e w i d e d i f f e r e n c e s i n e c o n o m i c s i z e , d e v e l o p m e

n t l e v e l , a n d i n d u s t r i a l competencegivingrisetodivergentperceptionsofbenefitsandcosts(Chia,2013).TheASEANcountriesfacetheexternalchallengesfromstrongglobalization,internationalc o m p et i t i o n , therapideconomicandtradegrowthinIndiaandChina,andt he proliferation ofpreferentialtradeagreements(Chia,2013;Ravenhill,2008)

Ingeneral,Vietnamhasstrongcomparativeadvantagesandexportsthetraditional,labor-intensive,andland-

intensiveagriculturalsectorssuchasrice,coffee,rubber,blackp e p p e r , f i s h e r , f r u i t a n d

v e g e t a b l e s b a s e d ont h e n a t u r a l c o n d i t i o n s a n d c h e a p l a b o r resources.Theprocess of agricultural productiond e v e l o p me n t andinternationaltradespecializationhasoccurredwithoutacentralandlong-

termplanandstrategybasedont h e scientificbackgroundandresearch.ThisprocessresultsinvariousissuestoVietnamsuchas:

(i)thecountry’sagriculturalsectorislosingthecomparativeadvantagesontheworldmarketsduetotheincreasinginputcost,lowproductquality,

andnegativeimpacto n t h e n a t u r a l e n v i r o n m e n t ;

( i i ) f a r m e r s a n d p r o d u c e r s o b t a i n l o w e r p r o f i t a b i l i t y a n d incomeduetolowexportprice,oversupplyproduction,lowbrandvalues,lowvalue-

added,andlowproductivity;

(iii)competitionsbecomemoreandmorefierceonbothl o c a l andglobalmarketswhen competingcountries(suchas Thailand, Cambodia)focuso n t h e h i g h -

v a l u e s e c t o r s w i t h h i g h - q u a l i t y s t a n d a r d s a n d v a l u a b l e b r a n d n a m e s ;

( i v ) n a t u r a l disasters,negativeimpactsonenvironments,andclimatechangesalsomaketheagriculturalproductionsbecomeriskier,moreunstableandlessprofitable

Ina d d i t i o n , c r o p c h o i c e f o r s p ec i f i c a g r o

-e c o l o g ic a l r -e g i o n s b a s i n g o n t h -e i r comp-etitiv-eadvantag-esisak-eyissu-eofVi-etnam’sagriculturalsector.Forinstance,theM e k o n g D e l t a i s t h e mainagricultural areaofVietnamwith thestrategicsectorsof rice,

fruits,a n d v e g e t a b l e s R i c e , h o w e v e r , becomel e s s p r o f i t a b l e a n d s u s t a i n

a b l e d u e t o inputc o s t i n c r e a s e , o v e r s u p p l y , a n d e n v i r o n m e n t a l f o o d-

p r i n t s f o r b o t h p r i v a t e a n d so ci al act or s T h e s e i s s u e s co mp el f a r m e r s, e n

t e r p r i s e s , a n d p o l i c y ma k e r s t o u r g e n t l y i d e n t i f y andchoosethebestcropsinthesamearablelandswiththesimilarnaturalands o c i a l conditions.Astheresult,itisessentialforVietnamtoidentifytheco mp e t it i v e n e s s ofagriculturalsectortore-structurethe

agricultural

productionsystemsandt r a d e p a t t e r n s w h i c h m a y g e n e r a t e t h e h i g h e r v a l

u e

-a d d e d -a n d p r o f i t -a b i l i t y f o r p r o d u c e r s -and-alsoproperly-ad-apttoclim-atech-anges-andnaturalresourcedegradations

Ast h e a u t h o r s ’ r e v i e w , t herea r e sixmaina p p r o a c h e s measuringc o m p e t i t i v e

n e s s sucha s t h e e c o n o m i c i n d i c a t o r s , t h e t r a d e performancei n d i c e s , t h e d e

t e r m i n a n t s o f c o m p e t i t i v e n e s s , themultidimensionalframeworks,thevaluechainperformanceandthebenchmarking.T h e t r a d e p e r f o r m a n c e i n d i c e s a n d e c o n o m

i c i n d i c a t o r s a r e t h e m o s t p o p u la r andefficientmeasuresinagriculturalresearch

Manytradeperformanceindices havebeenproposedsuch astheRCA byBalassa(1965),theRTAbyVollrath(1991),theLFIbyLafay(1992),theRSCAbyDalumeta l (1998),andtheNRCAbyYuetal

(2009).InVietnam,thestudiesmainlyemploythetradeindexoftheRCAtomeasurethecomparativeadvantagesofoneagriculturalcommodity(NguyenandSumalde,2008)orofallcommoditiesingeneral(Le,2010;Nguyen,2 0 1 1 ; a n d V i x a t h e

p , 2 0 1 3 ) T h e r e i s n o r e s e a r c h u t i l i z i n g t h e t r a d e

performanceindicessuchastheRCA,theRTA,andtheNRCAtoassessthestaticanddynamicsc o m p e t i t i v e n e s s o f Vietnam.E s p e c i a l l y , t h e r e i s n o s t u d y testing t h e c o n s i

s t e n c y

o f thetradeperformanceindicesinthecaseofVietnam.Therefore,thereisa n empiricalandtheoreticalresearchgaptoassessthestaticanddynamicsagriculturalc o m p et i ti v en

e s s o f V i e t n a m over timebyva ri ou s t r a d e p e r f o r m a n c e i n d i c e s w i t h t h e c o n s i s

t e n c y betweentheseindicesbycross-sections

Int h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l s c o p e , m e a s u r i n g a n d c o m p a r i n g t h e a g r i c

u l t u r a l t r a d e c o m p et i t i v en e s s amongvariouscountriesinaregionoragroupissignificantlyinterestingtothescholarsbythesevarioustradeindices(BanterleandCarraresi,2007;Q i n e t i etal.,2008; SanidasandShin, 2010;Svatosetal.,2010;BojnecandFerto2016).T h e s e studiesmainlyfocusonassessingthecommoditystructureofagrariantradesofc ou n t r i e s ontheworldmarketoracommonregionalmarket.Scholars,moreover,mayanalyzetheagriculturalcomplementarity,similarity,and/orcompetitionamongdifferentc o u n t r i e s ontheworldmarketoracommonregionalmarketbyusingtheagrariantraded a t a (VaillantandOns,2002;ZhengandQi,2007;BenedictisandTajoli,2008;Andreosso-

O'Callaghan,2009;JayawickramaandThangavelu,2010;ShuaiandWang,2011).H o

w e v e r , s c h o l a r s h a v e n o t measureda n d c o m p a r e d t h e s t a t i c a n d dynamicsagriculturalcompetitivenessoftheASEANcountriesovertimebyvarioustradeperformanceindiceswiththeconsistencytestbetweentheseindicesbycross-

countries.Especially,theassessmentof the agriculturalcomplementarity, similarity,and/

orc o m p e t i t i o n b e t w e e n t h e A S E A N c o u n t r i e s i s s t i l l a s i g n i f i c a n t r e s

e a r c h g a p s o f a r

Somescholarmaystudytheintra-industrytrade,intra-regionaltrade,andbilateraltradeb e t w e e n thesecountries(SharmaandChua,2000;IsmailandAbdullah,2013;Nguyene t al.,2017;NguyenandVo,2017)

Theeconomicindicatorsconsistoftheprofitability,thevalue-added,thee f f e c t i v e n e s s , theefficiency,andtheproductivityatbothmarketandso

cialprices.Theeconomicindicatorsaremeaningfulandessentialtoolstomakecropproductionchoices

n Vietnamusuallymeasuretheeconomicindicatorsoftheagriculturalproductionsatmarketpricestoidentifywhethertheagriculturalproductsarecompetitiveorprofitable(

V o a n d N g u y e n , 2 0 1 1 ; T r a n e t a l , 2 0 1 3 ; T r a n a n d P h a m , 2 0 1 4 ; V o eta

l , 2 0 1 5 ; Nguyen,2015;Truong et al., 2015;H oan g, 2 01 5; NguyenandNguyen,2018) Some scholarsmeasurethecompetitivenessorprofitabilityoftheagriculturalproductatsocialpricesbytheDRCindicator(NguyenandSumalde,2006;Nguyen2009;NguyenandM a i , 2 0 1 2 ; N g u y e n a n d P h a n , 2 0 1 2 ) T h e s t u d i e s , h o w e v e r , e x p l

a i n t h e c o m p e t i t i v e a d v an t ag e a s t h e m e a s u r e m e n t byc o m p a r i n g t h e domesticr e s o u r c e c o s t v a l u e d a t marketp r i c e ( D R C ) w i t h t h e o f f i c i a l e x c h a

n g e r a t e ( O E R ) Theyc o n v e r t t h e m a r k e t p r i c e DRCsintoforeigncurrencyvaluetoidentifywhetheranagricultural productiona c t i v i t y i s c o m p e t i t i v e Moreover,n o n e oftheseresearchesassessthecomparativea d v a n t a g e changeswhentheinputandmarketconditionschange.Thisapproachseemsn o t tostrictlyfollowtheguideoftheoriginalmethodofthePAMmodelbyMonkeandP e a r s o n (1989).NguyenandHeidhues(2004)employthePAMmodelfor

assessingthecomparativeadvantageofVietnam’sricesectorunderdifferentliberalisationscenariosw i t h thesensitiveanalysisbasedonthevariousscenarios.Thispaper,however,focusesonriceproductiononly.It,therefore,failstocomparethecomparativeadvantagesofthed if

f e r en t agriculturalproductions

Intheworldscope,thereareseveralstudiesofagriculturalcompetitivenessbytheeconomicindicatorsinthePAMmodel(Yao,1997a,1997b;MorrisonandBalcombe,2002;Kyddetal.,1997;Gortonetal.,2006;Li ef er t etal.,2011;Bernaletal.,2012;A l v e s e t a l , 2 0 1 7 ) w i t h s e n s i t i v e a n a l y s i s b a s e d o n t h e c h a n g e s ofi n p u t

c o n d i t i o n s Theses t u d i e s , h o w e v e r , f o c u s o n m e a s u r i n g t h e c o m p e

t i t i v e n e s s o f a n a g r i c u l t u r a l p ro du ct orthegeneralagriculturalsector.OnlyYao(1997a)measuresandcomparesthecomparativea d v a n t a g e s o f t h r e e c o m p e t i t i v e

c r o p s s u c h a s r i c e , soybean,a n d mungbean.T h e s e c r o p s , h o w e v e r , s e e m

t o b e r e l a t i v e l y s i m i l a r i n p r o d u c t i o n a n d

economicr e s u l t Y a o ( 1 9 9 7 a ) u s e s t h e e c o n o m i c i n d i c a t o r s i n t h e P A M modelonlywithouttheoreticallycomparingwithotherapproachofcompetitivenessmeasurement.T h e r e isnoscholarwhoemploysandcomparesthedifferentapproachesofinvestigatingtheagriculturalcompetitiveness As the result,itisa practicalandempirical researchg a p t o measurea n d c o m p a r e t h e c o m p e t i n g a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i o

n s y s t e m s o f r i c e , c o c o n u t , andpomelo.Thereisalsoatheoreticalresearchgaptocomparetheeconomicandtradeapproachesofmeasuringtheagriculturalcompetitiveness

1.3 Researchobjectivesandquestions

Ingeneral,thisdissertationaimstoprovidethecomprehensiveandsystematico v er v i e wofcompetitivenessliteratureandtoinvestigatetheagriculturalco m p et i ti v en es s ofVietnamatvariouslevelsandindiversescopesbydifferentapproachesu n d e r t h e c o u

n t r y ’ s p r o g r e s s o f economicr e

-s t r u c t u r e , a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i o n -sy-steminnovation,andglobalmarketintegration.Inparticular,theresearcho b j e c t i v e s ofthisdissertationareto:

First,a s s e s s t h e s t a t i c a n d dynamica g r i c u l t u r a l c o m p e t i t i v e n e s s ofVietna

m.T h e s t u d y triestounderstandtherelativemarketsharesofVietnam’sagriculturalcommodity

g r o u p s ontheworldmarketsandidentifieswhetherandhowtheyarecompetitive,thed e g r e e s o f c o m p e t i t i v e n e s s byv a r i o u s t r a d e p e r f o r m a n c e i n d i c e s V i

e t n a m h a s b e e n experiencedt h e e c o n o m i c i n n o v a t i o n a n d g l o b a l i z a t i o n ,

t h u s t h e d i s s e r t a t i o n h a s t h e target to understand the generalpatternofVietnam’sagricultural

competitiveness,c o n v e r g e n t ordivergent,andexplainhowthecompetitivenessindicatorsoftheseagriculturalcommoditygroupschangeovertime.Thestudyalsodesirestoknowhowt h e s e tradeperformance indicesare consistentin measuring,rankingandd e t e r m i n i n g t h e competitivenessincaseofVietnam’sagriculturalsectorsbycross-sections

Second,i n v e s t i g a t e a n d comparet h e a g r i c u l t u r a l tradep a t t e r n s V i e t n

a m i n comparisontotheASEANcountries.The authorsattempttounderstandthepositions a n d t h e a d v a n t a g e s o f Vietnam’sa g r i c u l t u r a l s e c t o r i n t h e A S E A

N r e g i o n by

investigatingtheagriculturalcompetitivenessofotherASEANcountries,comparingtheagriculturalcompetitivenessdegrees,andrankingtheirpositionsovertime.Especially,thed i s

s e r t a t i o n i d e n t i f i e s w h e t h e r t h e A S E A N c o u n t r i e s a r e c o m p l e m e n t a r

y o r substitutableinagriculturalexportandimport ontheworldmarketsovertheregionala n d globalintegration

process.Theresearch,moreover,testshowthesetradeindicesareconsistentinmeasuring,rankinganddeterminingthecompetitivenessincaseofA S E A N countries’agriculturalsectorsbycross-countries

Third,evaluatetheagriculturalcomparativeadvantagesofthealternativeagricul

turalproductionsystemsofrice,coconut,andpomeloin

thesameagro-e c o l o g i c a l conditionsthroughththesameagro-ecasthesameagro-estudyinBthesameagro-enTrthesameagro-eprovincthesameagro-e,Mthesameagro-ekongDthesameagro-eltabyththesameagro-ethesameagro-economica n d p r o d u c t i o n a p p r o a c h B e n T r e i s s e l e c t e d d u e t o i t s r e p r e s e n t a t

i v e f o r M e k o n g Delta,wherericeandothercropsasvegetables,coconut,andfruittreesmaybegrowninlargescales.Particularly,thedissertationmeasuresandcontraststheeconomicindicatorsofthesesectorsatmarketpricesandsocialpricesofinputsandoutputs.Thestudy,moreover,analyzesthesensitivitiesoftheeconomicindicatorsaccordingtothec h a n g e s inclimate,productivity,marketprices,andexchange

Tocomparingvariousapproachesofcompetitivenessmeasurements,thestudyalsoassesses thecomparativeadvantagesofthesectorsofrice,coconutsandpomelobythe

t rad e performanceindices.Basedontheresultsofbothempiricalstudiesbytheeconomicindicatorsandtradeperformanceindices,thedissertationwill:

Fourth,empiricallyanalyzetheconsistencyandtheoreticallycomparethed i f f e r e n

c e s andimplicationsofthesecompetitivenesstradeindicesandeconomicindicators.Thoughboththetradeandeconomicframeworksareusefultomeasurethec o m p e t i t i v e

n e s s ofagriculture,theyindicatethedifferentpracticalandtheoreticalmeaningandas pec

ts T h e authors wo ul das pi re to understand, tes tan di ll us tr ate ho w a n d whytheseapproachesaredifferentandwhattheindicatorscanprovidetheimplicationsandsuggestionsforfarmers,agribusinessenterprises,andpolicymakers

Thefollowingresearchquestionsshouldberespondedsothattheresearchobjectiveso fthisthesepreviouslycanbecompletelyandoriginallyachieved.

(2) Thesecondresearchobjective can beobtainedbyrespondingthefollowingmainresearchquestion:H o w competitiveare

theASEANcountriesinagriculturalsectorsontheworld marketsan d w h e t h e r t h e s e countries are complementary orsubs ti tu ta bl e i n agriculturalexportandimportontheworldmarkets?

Moreover,othersupportingr e s e a r c h questionsarealsomeaningfulforthesecondresearchobjectivesuchas:HowisVietnam’sagriculturecompetitiveincomparisonwiththeASEANcountries?

Whethert h e tradeindicesareconsistenttomeasure,rank,anddeterminetheagriculturalc o m p et i t i v en e ss incaseoftheASEANcountriesbycross-countries?

(3) Thethirdresearchobjectiveshouldbedeterminedbytheresearchquestionthat

wh i ch thecropsofrice,coconut,andpomeloinBenTreobtain strongercomparativea d v a n t a g e s andshouldfarmersandagribusinessenterprisescultivateandinvestundert h e c o n d i t i o n s o f t h e u n s t a b l e a g r i c u l t u r a l markets,t h e c h a n g

i n g climate,d e g r a d i n g n a t u r a l resources,andincreasingcompetition?

Inotherwords,howcompetitivethecropp r o d u c t i o n systemsofrice,coconut,andpomeloare.And,

(4) Thef o u r t h r e s e a r c h o b j e c t i v e w i l l b e o b t a i n e d byt h e r e s e a r c h q

u e s t i o n t h a t whether,howandwhytradeperformanceindicesandeconomicindicatorsarecon

ordifferentinmeasuringtheagriculturalcompetitiveness a n d p r o v i d i n g pr act i

ca la n d theoreticalimplications?

1.4 Briefofresearchmethodology,scope,anddata

Ineconomica n d b u s i n e s s l i t e r a t u r e , t h e r e a r e v a r i o u s f r a m e w o r k s t o measuret h e agriculturalc o m p e t i t i v e n e s s a t d i f f e r e n t levelsi n d i v e r s e s c o p e s b a

s e d o n sixm a i n a p p r o a c h e s suchas(1)thetradeperformanceindices;

(2);theeconomicandproductionindicators,(3)thedeterminantsofcompetitiveness;(4)themultidimensionalf r a m e w o r k s ;

(5)thevaluechainperformanceapproaches;and(6)thebenchmarking.Inthisdissertation,theauthorswillemploythetradeperformanceandtheeconomicandproductiona p

p r o a c h e s t o a c h i e v e t h e r e s e a r c h o b j e c t i v e s a n d r e s p o n d t h e r e s

e a r c h questions.M o r e o v e r , t h e additional methodswillbe u s e d to f o r ot he rr ese

a rch o b j e c t i v e s andquestions.Themethodologiescanbeshortlyexpressedasfollowswithd e t a i l e d presentationsinChapter3:

First,thedissertationemploysthetrade performance indices tomeasurethestat

icagriculturalcompetitivenessofVietnambycross-sections.ThetradeindicesconsistoftheR e v e a l e d C o m p a r a t i v e A d v a n t a g e ( R

C A ) o f B a l a s s a ( 1 9 6 5 ) , theR e l a t i v e T r a d e A d v a n t a g e (RTA)ofVollrath(1991),andtheNormalizedRevealedComparativeAdvantage( NRC A) o f Y u e ta l ( 2 0 0 9 ) A f t e r t h a t , t he d y n a m i cs a n d c h a n ge s o f t h e agriculturalcompetitivenessindicatorsare analyzedinthree wayss u c h as O L S r e g r e s s i o n , Markovmatrices,andtrendanalysis.Theconsistencyofthesetradeindicesinmeasuring,r a n k i n g , a n d

a n d t h e E x p o r t S i m i l a r i t y I n d e x ( S I ) o f F i n g e r a n d K r e i n i n (1979),andSpearman’srankcorrelationcoefficients(SC),following

Jayawickramaa n d T h a n g a v e l u ( 2 0 1 0 ) , t o i d e n t i f y whe th er t h e A S E A N c o u n t

r i e s a r e c o m p l e m e n t a r y o r s u b s t i t u t a b l e ( c o m p e t i n g ) i n a g r i c u l t u r a l e x p

o r t a n d importo n t h e w o r l d agricultural markets.Thesestatisticaltoolsarealsousedtotesttheconsistencyofthesetradeperformanceindicesascardinal,ordinalanddichotomousmeasuresincaseo f ASEANcountriesbycross-countries

Third,t h e e c o n o m i c a n d p r o d u c t i o n a p p r o a c h s h o u l d b e u t i l i z e d t o

e v a l u a t e t h e comparativeadvantageofalternativecropproductionsystemssuchasrice,coconut,andpomelo.Particularly,thepolicyanalysismatrix(PAM)indicatorsareusedtomeasuret h e c o s t , theb e n e f i t , thep r o f i t a b i l i t y a t b o t h marketandsocialprices.T h e P A M indicatorsincludethePrivateprofitability(PP),Privatecostratio(PCR),Socialp r o f i t a b i l i t y (SP),Domesticresourcecost(DRC),Socialcost-

benefit(SCB),NominalP r o t e c t i o n Coefficient(NPC),EffectiveProtectionCoefficient(EPC),ProfitabilityC o e f f i c i e n t (PC),SubsidyRatiotoProducers

(SRP).Moreover,theauthorsmeasurethesensitivityofthePAMindicatorsbythreescenarios:(i)Climatechange;

(ii)Waterandlandcharges;and(iii)TheparametersofthePAMvariablesandelementssuchasout

putp r i c e s , inputsprices,productivity,andtherealeffectiveexchangerate.Finally,basedonthe

researchresults oftradeperformanceindicesand theeconomicindicators,thisstudyw i l l t h e o r e t i c a l l y d i s c u s s a n d c o m p a r e t h e consistencya n d t he

d i f f e r e n c e o f t h e s e a p p r o a c h e s i n e m p i r i c a l l y m e a s u r i n g t h e a g r i c

u l t u r a l c o m p e t i t i v e n e s s a n d p r o v i d i n g practicalandtheoreticalimplications.Thedissertationisfulfilledovertheperiod2013-

2017withthefocusonagriculturalcommodities( c o m m o d i t y i s d e f i n e d a s thesectori n t h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n ) i n Vietnam,A S E A N countries,andBenTreprovince.ThecorescopeofthisdissertationisVietnam’sagriculturewith61commoditygroups.TheextendedscopeistheASEANcountries’a g r i c u l t u r a l s e c t o r s f o r c o m p

a r i n g a n d r a n k i n g V i e t n a m ’ s a g r i c u l t u r a l c o m p e t i t i v e n e s s positions.ThenarrowedscopeisBenTreprovinceasacasestudyoft h e P A M a p p r o a c h f o r t h

r e e a l t e r n a t i v e a n d c o m p e t i n g c r o p s o f r i c e , c o c o n u t , a n d

pomeloonthesamearableland.Riceistheessentialfoodcrop,coconutistheimportantmaterialcrop,andpomeloistherelativelypotentialcrop.ThePAMapproachrequiresr e l a t i v el y

n u m e r o u s d a t a w i t h t h e a v e r a g e v a l u e s f o r a l l o b s e r v e r s a n d t h e s e d a t a o f

V i et n a m arenotavailable insecondarysources.Moreover,BenTre hasthestronges

ta d v a n t a g e i n coconutandpomeloand relativelystrong advantageinrice.Thus,BenTreshouldbethemostadequateandfeasiblecaseforthisresearchpurpose,eventhoughtheprovinceisnotthebestrepresentativeforriceintheMekongDelta

Forthefirstandthesecondgoals,theauthorsusethesecondarydatafromtheUnitedNationsComtrade(UNComtrade)with61agriculturalcommoditygroupsat3-

digitsinS I T C Rev.3overtheperiod 1997–2014forVietnamand1997–

2015forASEAN countries.T h e d i s s e r t a t i o n a l s o u s e s t h e s e c o n d a r y d a t a f r o

m t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l T r a d e Center(ITC),theFood

andAgricultureOrganization(FAO),theWorldBank(WB),theGeneralStatisticsOffice(GSO)ofVietnam,and theGeneralDepartment ofVietnam Customs(GDVC).Theprimarydatafromthefieldworksurveysforthreeagriculturalp r o d u c t i o n systemsinthecaseofBenTreprovince andrelatedlocationsin 2017areemployedf o r t

h e t h i r d a n d f o u r t h o b j e c t i v e s T h e a c t o r s i n t h e v a l u e c h a i n s w i l l b e interviewedsuchasfarmers,middletraders,processors,wholesalers,andretailersandt h esupportingactorsalsosuchasgovernments,banks,logisticscompanies,experts,ando t h e r s Thesecondary

datafortheseobjectivesisalsoobtainedfromtheUNComtrade,theITC,theFAO,theGSOofVietnam,andtheGDVC

andbusinessdecisions.Thed i s s e r t a t i o n i s t h e f i r s t r e s e a r c h t ryingt o e x p l

a i n h o w d o e s V i e t n a m ’ s a g r i c u l t u r a l comparativea d v a n t a g e p a t t e r n s

c h a n g e o v e r t i m e a t t h e d i f f e r e n t stageso f i t s g l o b a l integrationandpredictsthetrendsinthefuturebyemployingdifferentapproachesofO L S regression,Markovmatrices,andtrendanalysis.Thestudy,moreover,providesthee m p i r i c a l testsofthevarioustradeperformanceindicesanddynamicsanalysismodelsin t h e c a s e o f V i e t n a m b a s

i t h 6 1 c o m m o d i t y g r o u p s

at3-

digitlevelintheSITCRev.3overtheperiod1997-2015byvarioustradeperformanceindices.Especially,thedissertation triestoidentifywhethertheASEAN c o u n t r i e s c o m p l e m e n t a r y o r s u b s t i t u t a b l e ont

a d e p o l i c i e s , andregionalintegrationprograms.Inaddition,theresearchexpandsthee

m p i r i c a l s t u d i e s o f t h e c o m p l e m e n t a r i t y an dc o m p e t i t i v e n e s s i n d i c e s i n t h

e A S E A N

contextbasedonthecross-countriescomparison.Thestudyteststhetheoreticalanalysiso f theconsistencybetweenthesetradeindicesbythecross-sectionsrankings in thecasest u d y oftheASEANcountries.