Lecture tourism theory, concepts and models chapter 8 lifecycle models

Tourism Theory, Concepts and Models Bob McKercher and Bruce Prideaux Tourism Theories, Concepts and Models by McKercher and Prideaux © Goodfellow Publishers 2021... Learning Objectives

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Tourism Theory,

Concepts and Models

Bob McKercher and Bruce Prideaux

Tourism Theories, Concepts and Models by McKercher and

Prideaux © Goodfellow Publishers 2021

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Chapter 8: Lifecycle Models

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Learning Objectives

• Describe the biological basis of destination lifecycle models

• Evaluate the validity of Butler’s and Plog’s lifecycle models

• Analyse the strengths and limitations of each model

• Compare and contrast the two models and describe how they integrate closely

• Explain the role of carrying capacity

Tourism Theories, Concepts and Models by McKercher and Prideaux © Goodfellow Publishers 2021

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Biological origins of lifecycle models

• 3 complementary models

• Individual biological specimens live predictable patterns of birth, growth, maturity, decline and death

• But it is overly simplistic

• Collective shape of the lifecycle curve is influenced by a range of biological factors, including food supply, competitors and the carrying capacity of the environment where the entity lives

• Relates well to the theory of the diffusion of products, innovation and the overarching lifecycle collections like entities evolve through

• The evolutionary cycle is used to explain the phenomenon of the growth and proliferation of species, groups of biological specimens that can breed within but not outside each group

• Dynamic, open-ended

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Butler’s (1980) model

the normal order of events

“There can be little doubt that tourist areas are dynamic, that they evolve and change over time This evolution is brought about by a variety of

factors including changes in the preferences and needs of visitors, the

gradual deterioration and possible replacement of physical plant and

facilities, and the change (or even disappearance) of the original natural and cultural attractions which were responsible for the initial popularity of the area In some cases, while these attractions remain, they may be

utilized for different purposes or come to be regarded as less significant in comparison with imported attractions.” (Butler 1980:5)Tourism Theories, Concepts and Models by McKercher and

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Core assumptions

• Adopts a supply side perspective (mostly)

• Supply of products and services changes, usually in response to changing consumer demand, but occasionally in a proactive

manner to lead demand change

• Demand changes as destinations evolve, with the type of tourist becoming increasingly ‘softer’ as destinations mature

• Limits of growth are determined by the destination’s carrying

capacity and once it is reached or exceeded, the destination is

at risk of entering decline At risk, but not pre-determined to do so!

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Source: Butler 1980

Tourism Theories, Concepts and Models by McKercher and

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Tourism Theories, Concepts and

Models by McKercher and Prideaux ©

Goodfellow Publishers 2021

Stage Characteristic Exploration Few explorers or drifters visiting sites with no public facilities

Visitors attracted to the destination by its natural physical feature Specific visitor type of a select nature

Involvement Limited interaction between local residents and the tourism industry

Increased advertising induces a definable pattern of seasonal variation

Definite market are beginning to emerge Development Development of additional tourist facilities and increased promotion

Greater control of the tourist trade by outsiders Number of tourists at peak periods far outweighs the size of the resident population, inducing rising antagonism

Consolidation Tourism has become a major part of the local economy,

Growth rates have begun to level off

A well-delineated business district has taken shape Local efforts are made to extend the tourist season Stagnation Peak numbers of tourists and capacity levels are reached

The destination is well-established, but is no longer in fashion Post-stagnation Five possibilities from rejuvenation to stability to decline

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Carrying capacity

• Once carrying capacity exceeded, the destination is at risk

• The UN World Tourism Organization (2018:3) defines tourist carrying capacity as “the maximum number of people that may visit a tourist destination at the same time, without causing

destruction of the physical, economic and sociocultural

environment and an unacceptable decrease in the quality of visitors’ satisfaction.”

• But

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The unrecognized subtlety in Butler

• Assume it reflects the whole lifecycle

• But, the model is open-ended

on both the x and y axis

• Represents individual phases that can be aggregated to

reflect the total destination evolution

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Plog’s (1974/1976) model

Premise

• Destination lifecycles tied to the psychological type of tourist visiting

• Attract explorers, peak with mass tourists and decline with introverted people who do not like to travel

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Core concepts

‘normally’

drives all behaviours, including

tourism

psychological profile, we can

understand your likely travel

behaviour

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It is a traditional lifecycle model

• His paper states unequivocally (Plog, 1974: 58) “the

introduction of each new type of traveler has meant a larger

population base from which to draw travelers [but] when the appeal of the resort passes the magic mid-point in the

population curve of travelers it begins to draw on a smaller

number of travelers.”

• Elsewhere he adds (Plog, 1974: 58) “thus, we can visualize a destination moving across a spectrum, however gradually or

slowly, but far too often inexorably towards the potential of its

own demise Destinations carry with them the potential seeds of their own destruction as they allow themselves to be more

commercialized and lose qualities which originally attracted

tourists.” Tourism Theories, Concepts and Models by McKercher and Prideaux ©

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Two features make this model unique

1) Reads from right to left Groupings are based

on responses to a series of Likert scaled questions People who were more likely to answer ‘5’ tend to be Allocentric, whereas those who answer closer to the ‘1’ end of the scale are more Psychocentric

2) Categories are quantitatively based The

Midcentric groups capture all those people whose responses were within one standard deviation from the average score, while the other groups are based on scores of between one and two standard deviations and greater than two standard deviations from the mean.

Source: Plog 2001

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Tourism Theories, Concepts and

Models by McKercher and Prideaux ©

Current

Segment name

Pyschocen-trics

Near Psychocen-tric

Allocentrics

Allocentric

Approximate

size of the group

Importance and

frequency of

travel

Travel not important Take few trips

Travel not very

important

Travel somewhat important

Travel important Travel important Very important

part of their life

Preferred types

of travel and

destinations

Nearby well established Major hotel chains

Prefer domestic travel and familiar atmosphere

Prefer popular places with lots of

sunshine Repeat visitor Prefer domestic travel

Like crowds Travel for fun,

recreation, and to spend time with family Prefer domestic travel

Prefer a modest selection of good hotels Repeat visitors to favourite places Prefer independent travel

Wanderlust

Like foreign destinations Seek new experiences Wanderlust Soft

adventure

Like unknown, uncommon and non-tourist destinations Prefer

longer duration trips

Want to explore and discover

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Take Plog’s psychographic test and see what your travel personality is

Find the travel quiz here:

https://besttripchoices.com/travel-personalities/quiz/

Look at your travel personalities here:

https://besttripchoices.com/travel-personalities/

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Does Plog work in practice?

• Good at identifying tourists’

ideal destinations, but not

where they actually travel

Psychocentric or Traditional

destinations, regardless of their

profile

• Actual destination choice

reflects distance decay more

so than Plog’s psychographic

groups

Source: Litvin 2006

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2 further questions

1) What is the role of

different

motivations play in

the travel

decision?

2) Do the categories

represent the

‘maximum’ type of

travel people will

be comfortable

with?

Psychocentric / Traditionals Near Psychocentric / Sightseers Midcentric / Journeyers Midcentric / Voyagers Near Allocentric / Pionners Allocentric / Venturers

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The complementarity of Butler and Plog

Exploration

Allocentric / Venturer

Involvement

Near Allocentric / Pioneer

Development

Midcentric / Voyageurs & Journeyers

accommodation and activities Consolidation

Near Pyschocentrics / Sightseers

Stagnation

Pyschocentrics / Traditionals

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