GM Report Assumptions Snapshot Draft 11.19.21_202111191327114001

Growth Monitoring Report Assumptions Snapshot –2021 DRAFT Below is a snapshot comparison of the monitoring data discussed in the comprehensive report compared to previous estimates.. Ado

Growth Monitoring Report Assumptions Snapshot –2021 DRAFT

Below is a snapshot comparison of the monitoring data discussed in the comprehensive report compared to previous estimates

Adopted* Assumption or Other Data: This is the data or adopted assumption used as a forecast or projection in the most recent adopted land

demand and capacity studies for Eugene’s 20-year period, currently the 2012-2032 Residential and Employment Land Supply Studies adopted in

2017 Some data was specifically adopted as an input into the UGB analysis and is denoted with an “*.” Other data was included in the adopted studies to provide context but is not necessarily an adopted assumption

Monitoring Data: This is either the total cumulative data or overall average of data for Eugene (unless otherwise noted) during the monitoring

period up to the time the comprehensive report was compiled, or point in time data available at the time the comprehensive report was

compiled

Adopted*

Assumption or Other Data

Data (years or point in time)

General

Planning Period 2012-2032* 20 years - this does not

change until a new UGB analysis

Population Growth Rate

(new people in 20 years) 0.9%* 33,778 Extrapolated from 2009 PSU forecast 1.2% 2012-2020 Portland State University

(PSU) annual estimates

+

Population Growth Rate

Forecast 0.9% Extrapolated from 2009 PSU forecast 0.9% 2020-2040 PSU 2021 forecast Change No

Employment Growth

Rate 1.4%* 2012-2022 OED forecast for Lane County 3.1% 2012-2018 Oregon

Employment Department (OED) covered jobs data

+

Employment Growth

Rate Forecast 1.4%* 2012-2022 OED forecast for Lane County 0.8% 2019-2029 from OED forecast for Lane County _

Households

Population in Group

Quarters

(number of people in

GQ)

4.6%*

1,554

2010 Census Includes deduction for dorms; 60% (2007 Census) were in dorms, and UO projected no student growth for the next 10 years

3.8%

6,482

2019 1-year ACS

UO November 2020

UO projects moderate growth (2.0-2.5% per year) undergrad student enrollment until 2026 then stabilized

_

Residential Vacancy

Rate

(dwellings)

5%*

3.6%

Persons per Household

(new du after GQ &

vacancies inputs) 2.24* 2010 Census (safe harbor) 2.27 2019 1-year ACS +

Household Composition 48%

Non-family, 27% Family w/o children,

24% Family w/ children

2010 Census households city-wide 50% Non-family,

28% Family w/o children, 23% Family w/ children

2019 1-year ACS +

Non-family

Population of Latino

Origin 8% 2011 ACS 12,500 households city-wide 10.2% 2019 1-year ACS +

Population by Race and

Latino Origin 82% White non-Hispanic, 2011 ACS households city-wide 78% White non-Hispanic,

2019 1-year ACS _

Adopted*

Assumption or Other Data

Data (years or point in time)

10% All other races,

8% Hispanic or Latino

12% All other races,

10% Hispanic

or Latino

White non-Hispanic

Households by Tenure 45% Owner

Occupied, 55% Renter Occupied

2011 ACS households city-wide 47% Owner Occupied,

53% Renter Occupied

2019 1-year ACS _

Owner occupied

Owner and Renter

Households by Tenure

and Housing Type

Single-family detached 72% Owner

Occupied, 28% Renter Occupied

2011 ACS households city-wide 78% Owner Occupied,

22% Renter Occupied

2019 1-year ACS +

Owner occupied

Single-family attached 25% Owner

Occupied, 75% Renter Occupied

2011 ACS households city-wide 37% Owner Occupied,

63% Renter Occupied

2019 1-year ACS +

Owner occupied

Two to four units 5% Owner

Occupied, 95% Renter Occupied

2011 ACS households city-wide 2% Owner Occupied,

98% Renter Occupied

2019 1-year ACS _

Owner occupied

Five or more units 3% Owner

Occupied, 97% Renter Occupied

2011 ACS households city-wide 3% Owner Occupied,

97% Renter Occupied

2019 1-year ACS No

Change

Latino Owned

Households 64% Not Hispanic/Latino,

40%

Hispanic/Latino

2010 Census Oregon

households city-wide (pending 2020 Census)

Latino Owned

Households by Age of

Household

1% below 25, 25% 25-44, 46% 45-64, 28% 65+

2010 Census all Oregon

1% below 25, 24% 25-44, 46% 45-64, 29% 65+

2010 Census

non-Hispanic/Latino Oregon

households

(pending 2020 Census)

2% below 25, 49% 25-44, 39% 45-64, 10% 65+

2010 Census Hispanic/Latino

Households &

Affordability

People in Poverty 27.2% 2011 ACS households

Median Household

Income $37,339 2011 1-year ACS (not adjusted for inflation) $51,000 2019 1-year ACS (not adjusted for inflation)

Median Family Income $84,543 2019 1-year ACS (not

adjusted for inflation)

Adopted*

Assumption or Other Data

Data (years or point in time)

Median Sales Price of

Single-family Housing (pending analysis) $432,000 Sept 2021,

Redfin.com

Median Sales Price of

Single-family Housing by

Eugene areas

Median Sales Price of

Single-family Housing by

Housing Type

(pending analysis)

Median Sales Price of

Single-family Housing by

Lane County City

(pending analysis)

Median Gross Rent $826/month $1,031/month 2019 1-year ACS +

Ratio of House Value to

(Median Household)

Income

Percentage of Renter

Monthly Income Spent

on Rent

39.4% 2011 1-year ACS

2012 1-year ACS was 46.8% 38.9% 2019 1-year ACS significant No

change

Cost-Burdened

Households 50% all households 2011 1-year ACS 41% all households 2019 1-year ACS _

Cost-Burdened Renters

and Owners 64% renter households

33% owner households

2011 1-year ACS 56% renter

households 25% owner households

2019 1-year ACS _

Severely Cost-Burdened 28% all

households 2011 1-year ACS 20% all households 2019 1-year ACS _

Severely Cost-Burdened

Renters and Owners 43% renter households

11% owner households

2011 1-year ACS 30% renter

households 10% owner households

2019 1-year ACS _

Adopted*

Assumption or Other Data

(year period or point in time)

Residential Land

Demands

Population Growth Rate

(new people in 20 years) 0.9%* 33,778 2012-2032 from 2009 PSU population forecast 1.2% 15,285 PSU annual certified estimate On pace

Population Growth to

New Dwellings Growth

Rates

1.2% population 1.4% new dwellings

PSU annual certified estimate and 12/2012- mid-2021 issued building permits

On pace

Population in Group

Quarters

(number of people in

GQ)

4.6%*

1,554

2010 Census Includes deduction for dorms; 60% (2007 Census) were in dorms, and UO projected no student growth for the next 10 years

3.8%

Residential Vacancy

Rate

(du)

5%*

Adopted*

Assumption or Other Data

(year period or point in time)

Persons per Household

(new du after GQ &

vacancies inputs)

2.24*

15,105 2010 Census (safe harbor)

significant change

Residential

Development

Mix of Existing

Dwellings 56% single-family detached

8% single-family attached 36% multi-family

single-family detached 7% single-family attached 37% multi-family

Mid-2021 estimate from

2012 residential addresses plus 8,011 new dwellings (methodology change)

Mix of New Dwellings 55%

single-family detached*

8% single-family attached 37% multi-family*

12/2012- mid-2021 issued building permits Under pace

(single-family detached, single-family attached, 2-4 dwellings) Met (5+dwellings)

Number of New

Dwellings 15,105 8,011 12/2012- mid-2021 issued building permits On pace

Issued Single-family and

Multi-family Dwellings

for Select Lane County

Cities

analysis) From HUD Issued building permits

database

Density (net)

Low Residential 5.4 2012-2032 (based on 2001-2012 data)

7.1 12/2012- mid-2021

issued building permits (collection methodology change)

+

Medium Residential 15.4

2012-2032 (reflects land use code change

increasing minimum density)

14.3 12/2012- mid-2021

issued building permits (collection methodology change)

+

(up from historical)

High Residential 32.6 2012-2032 (based on 2001-2012 data)

39.6 12/2012- mid-2021

issued building permits (collection methodology change)

+

Commercial n/a

2001-2012 data indicated densities like those on High Density Residential land

78.6 12/2012- mid-2021

issued building permits (collection methodology change)

+

(up from historical)

Efficiency Measures

Downtown 1,003 dwellings Additional dwellings above the average 679 dwellings 12/2012- mid-2021 issued building permits On pace

R-2 Zone density change 566 dwellings Additional dwellings above the average 304 dwellings 12/2012- mid-2021 issued building permits On pace Re-designation to LDR 1,833 dwellings Specific sites 71 dwellings 12/2012- mid-2021 issued building permits Below pace

Affordable Housing sites 55 dwellings (MDR) Specific sites

101 dwellings (MDR)

138 dwellings (LDR)

12/2012- mid-2021 issued building permits met

Adopted*

Assumption or Other Data

(year period or point in time)

Accessory Dwellings 84 dwellings Additional dwellings above the average 12 dwellings 12/2012- mid-2021 issued building permits TBD

Residential Land

Capacity Remaining,

Vacant and Partially

Vacant Land only

Low Residential Capacity 1,853 acres 9,327 dwellings 2021 BLI Rerun (refined methodology)

Medium Residential

Capacity 196 acres 2,022 dwellings 2021 BLI Rerun (refined methodology)

High Residential

Capacity 35 acres 684 dwellings 2021 BLI Rerun (refined methodology)

Adopted*

Assumption or Other Data

(year period or point in time)

Employment Land

Demands

Employment Growth

Rate

(new jobs in 20 years)

1.4%

(36,688 total jobs) 2012-2032

1.1%

(covered jobs only)

2021-2041 Used mid-point of adopted forecast (1.4%) and 2019 Lane County forecast (0.8%), need estimate for total jobs (covered plus not covered jobs)

TBD

People to Covered jobs

Ratio 1.4 jobs to 1 person 2012-2032 1.7 jobs to 1 person 2018 jobs data +

Employment

Development

Mix of job types

55%

commercial, 12% retail, 19% industrial, 14% public

2012-2032

55% commercial, 13% retail, 18% industrial, 15% public

2018 jobs data significant No

change

Density

Commercial Non-retail 68 EPA 2012-2032 (based on 2006 jobs data) 65 EPA 2018 jobs data significant No

change

Commercial Retail 22 EPA 2012-2032 (based on 2006 jobs data) 25 EPA 2018 jobs data significant No

change

Industrial 10 EPA 2012-2032 (based on 2006 jobs data) 8 EPA 2018 jobs data significant No

change

Efficiency Measures

Downtown Programs 18 acres Additional development above the average 4 acres 12/2012- mid-2021 issued building permits Below pace

E-1 Campus

Employment Zone 48 acres

Additional development above the average 1 acre 12/2012- mid-2021 issued building permits Below pace

E-2 Mixed Use

Employment Zone 54 acres Additional development above the average 0 acres 12/2012- mid-2021 issued building permits Below pace

Adopted*

Assumption or Other Data

(year period or point in time)

Re-designation to

Commercial 8 acres Specific sites 0 acres 12/2012- mid-2021 issued building permits Below pace

Brownfield Assessment

Program 45 acres Specific sites 0 acres 12/2012- mid-2021 issued building permits Below pace

Employment Land

Capacity Remaining,

Vacant and Partially

Vacant Land only

Commercial 103 acres 4,235 jobs 2021 BLI Rerun (refined methodology)

Industrial 1,318 acres 14,498 jobs 2021 BLI Rerun (refined methodology)

Adopted*

Assumption or Other Data

(year period or point in time)

Public & Semi-Public

Lands

Utilities demand To be determined at UGB analysis

Other Public Uses