The Effects of Climate Change on Florida''s Ocean and Coastal Resources_0

While there are legitimate disagreements among scientists on the nature, magnitude, and impact of these changes, the potential risks to Florida’s natural resources and possible impact

It is widely accepted that human activities can impact global

climate patterns While there are legitimate disagreements

among scientists on the nature, magnitude, and impact of these

changes, the potential risks to Florida’s natural resources and

possible impacts and to provide current and future generations

Florida Oceans and Coastal Council Revised June 2009 The effects of climate change on Florida’s ocean and coastal

resources A special report to the Florida Energy and Climate Commission and the people of Florida Tallahassee, FL 34 pp

Photos on front and back cover courtesy of DEP, Bureau of Beaches and Coastal Systems; Paige Gill; Dave Gilliam; NASA;

Guy Weeks & istockphoto.com

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Table of Contents

Principal “Drivers” of Climate Change and How They Will Affect Florida 3

II INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE: THE 2007 REPORT SUMMARY 5

III CLIMATE CHANGE AND FLORIDA’S INFRASTRUCTURE, HUMAN HEALTH,

IV “DRIVERS” OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND THEIR EFFECTS ON FLORIDA’S OCEAN

Effect: Altered Frequency and Intensity of Tropical Storms and Hurricanes 13

Effect: Increases in Fish Diseases, Sponge Die­offs, and Loss of Marine Life 16

V: CLIMATE CHANGE: PRIORITIES FOR FLORIDA’S OCEAN AND COASTAL RESEARCH 25

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This document was produced by the Florida Oceans and Coastal Council, in cooperation with the Florida Department of Environmental Protection, Florida Fish and Wildlife Conser­ vation Commission, and Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services Members of the Florida Oceans and Coastal Council are as follows:

Acknowledgments

E X O F F I C I O M E M B E R S

Florida Department of

Environmental Protection

Co­chair: Mike Sole, Secretary

Designee: Bob Ballard, Deputy Secretary,

Land and Recreation

Florida Fish and Wildlife Conserva­

tion Commission

Co­chair: Ken Haddad, Executive Director

Designee: Gil McRae, Director, Fish and

Florida Department of Agriculture

and Consumer Services

Designee: Sherman Wilhelm, Director,

A P P O I N T E D M E M B E R S

Florida Department of Environmen­

tal Protection Appointees:

Karl Havens, Director, Florida Sea Grant

John C Ogden, Director, Florida Institute of

of Miami

Lisa Robbins, Senior Scientist, Center for

Florida Fish and Wildlife Conserva­

tion Commission Appointees:

Bay Estuary Program

Florida Department of Agriculture

and Consumer Services Appointees:

Jane Davis, Aquarium Director, The Living

Jim Gray, Member, Coastal Conservation

Jody Thomas, Director, South Florida Region,

The Nature Conservancy

C O N T R I B U T O R S & R E V I E W E R S

The following individuals also provided

input and contributed to the preparation

of this report:

Lora Fleming, Medical School and Rosenstiel

Roy R “Robin” Lewis, III, Lewis Environmental

Services

Lisa Osterman, U.S Geological Survey

Dick Poore, U.S Geological Survey

Kim Ritchie, Mote Marine Laboratory

Kris Serbesoff­King, The Nature Conservancy

The following individuals served as peer reviewers:

John Church, Centre for Australian Weather and

Agent

Met Office Fellow in Climate Change

Joy Hazell, Florida Sea Grant Extension Agent

Ben Kirtman, Professor, Rosenstiel School of

sity of Miami

and Oceanic Administration

Maia McGuire, Florida Sea Grant Extension

AgentVasu Misra, Assistant Professor, Department

of Meteorology and Center for Ocean­

Mike Spranger, Associate Director, Florida

Sea Grant Program

Coordinated by Becky Prado, Office of Coastal and Aquatic

Managed Areas, Florida Department of Environmental Protec­

tion Editorial assistance was provided by Linda Lord, Bureau of

Watershed Management, Florida Department of Environmental

Protection Graphic design was provided by Rebecca

Eisman, Creative Endeavors

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W H Y T H I S R E P O R T W A S

W R I T T E N

The Florida Oceans and Coastal Council pre­

a n d m e m b e r s o f t h e p u b l i c w h o a r e

a number of research priorities for ocean and

G L O B A L C L I M A T E C H A N G E

A N D F L O R I D A

the Earth’s climate system is unequivocally

most of the temperature increase since the mid­

20th century is very likely caused by increased

are also generated by human activities such as

The question for Floridians is not whether they

will be affected by global warming, but how

how rapidly, what other climate changes will

term effects of these changes will be Florida is

more than 6,700 square miles of other coastal

most of its 18 million residents live within 60

Its diverse, productive coastal and marine

and quality of life depend on preserving and

The four major aspects of climate change

ture and water vapor, increasing ocean

what is known, what is probable, and what is

ble” means that it may occur, but that predicted

or human population (although this perspective

may change as new knowledge becomes

Here is what is known and what is probable

• Over the last 650,000 years, levels of

• The rate of change in atmospheric carbon

past 650,000 years Concentrations of

and nitrous oxide, have also increased sig­

nificantly

to increase at the rate of about 0.5 percent

per year for at least the next few decades

• As oceanic carbon dioxide has increased,

the world’s oceans have become more

and other marine organisms with calcium

• Most of the increase in average air temper­

by an average of 0.5 degrees Fahrenheit

(0.3 degrees Celsius) between the 1950s

and 1990s in tropical and subtropical waters

• Over the past 30 years, increased sea­

will become more frequent

2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1 to 1.5 degrees

its than they were 100 years ago In upcom­

ing decades, as water temperature increases,

the tolerance of some coral species will prob­

ably be exceeded

of disease, a situation that will probably

• The geographic range of marine species will

of Florida’s native marine and estuarine

• With further rises in water and atmospheric

more favorable for exotic plant and animal

if water temperatures continue to rise

of the state, coupled with human population

• Sea levels around Florida have been slowly

• Sea levels around the state probably will

and the ecological integrity of natural

and tidal rivers

• As a result of increasing sea levels, Florida

now, and further rises in sea level will prob­

ably exacerbate this situation Barrier

and migrate towards the mainland

• As sea levels rise, shallow coastal aquifers

and associated public drinking water sup­

The Pensacola and Miami­to­Palm Beach

and reduced aquifer recharge

T H E LO N G ­ T E R M S O LU T I O N

Some effects of climate change, such as ocean

come when Florida is simultaneously and con­

The long­term extent and severity of oceanic or

A B O U T T H E F L O R I D A O C E A N S

A N D C O A S T A L C O U N C I L

The 2005 Florida Legislature created the

for more effective coastal management The

t h re e n o n v o t i n g m e m b e r s T h e F l o r i d a

and Consumer Services appoint five members

http://www.floridaoceanscouncil.org

2 0 0 8 – 2 0 0 9 C O U N C I L

A C C O M P L I S H M E N T S

• Made a presentation to the Governor

and Cabinet on the economic impact of

and

Consortium:

the Ocean Tracking Network);

a moored instrument;

• A south Florida high­frequency radar array;

• An east­central Florida shelf array; deep

the Oculina Habitat Area of Particular

Concern;

• A moored buoy in data­sparse northeast

• A real­time high­resolution ocean and

and

• A northeast Florida shelf/estuary model

for Florida

Florida

• 11th Annual International Coral Reef

Symposium;

on data comparability and coastal nutrient

to address, or who are interested in, climate change issues in Florida The Council antici­ pates that the report will be updated periodically so that advances in science and policy can be communicated to Floridians

W H Y F L O R I D I A N S S H O U L D

C A R E A B O U T C L I M A T E C H A N G E

most of the temperature increase since the mid­

20th century is very likely caused by increased

they will be affected, but how much—that is,

to what degree warming will continue, how

term effects of these changes will be Some

are already well documented Others will begin

in the coming years and decades, and the time

is coming when the state is simultaneously and

W H A T A R E G R E E N H O U S E

G A S E S ?

Greenhouse gases, found in the Earth’s at

mosphere, are produced by natural and in

dustrial processes They absorb and emit

heat, or infrared radiation, from the planet’s

surface, atmosphere, and clouds While

these gases are essential to maintaining the

Earth’s temperature, excess quantities can

raise temperatures by radiating heat toward

the surface The most important green

house gases are water vapor (which

causes 36 to 70 percent of the green

house, or warming, effect on Earth); carbon

dioxide (9 to 26 percent); methane (4 to 9

percent); and ozone (3 to 7 percent)

Other greenhouse gases include nitrous

oxide, sulfur hexafluoride, hydrofluorocar

bons, perfluorocarbons, and chlorofluoro

carbons (2)

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and bays, and more than 6,700 square miles of

mum elevation less than 400 feet above sea

live less than 60 miles from the Atlantic Ocean

or the Gulf of Mexico (3, 4)

In addition, Florida’s coastal and marine

vast numbers of aquatic and terrestrial animals

and plants—some of which exist nowhere else

on Earth These ecosystems include the coastal

ing these natural resources over the long term

W H A T I S C L I M A T E C H A N G E ?

snow and ice, the oceans and other bodies of

­

that can be identified (e.g., using statistical tests)

by changes in the mean and/or the variability

of its properties, and that persists for an

It refers to any change in climate over time,

of human activity” (1)

and human activities—including the burning of

and average sea levels are rising Because

a long time—from decades to hundreds of

The question for Floridians is not whether

they will be affected, but how much that is,

to what degree warming will continue, how

rapidly, what other climate changes will

accompany the warming, and what the

long term effects of these changes will be

Some detrimental effects, such as ocean

acidification, are already well documented

Others will begin in the coming years and

decades, and the time is coming when the

state is simultaneously and continuously

challenged by all of these effects

In the future, it is very likely that higher levels of

in continued increases in average global

of rainfall will change as a result However, a

will affect the global climate (6)

P R I N C I P A L “ D R I V E R S ” O F

C L I M A T E C H A N G E A N D H OW

T H E Y W I L L A F F E C T F L O R I D A

The following aspects, or “drivers,” of climate

resources:

vapor;

such as Florida Thus, this report carefully iden­

and describes its effects on Florida’s ocean and

to occur in the future, while “possible” means

that it may occur, but that predicted impacts

must be carefully qualified to reflect the level of

The range of effects is imperfectly known and

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Driver: Increasing greenhouse gases

Driver: Increasing air temperature and

water vapor

Driver: Increasing ocean temperature

diseases;

food webs; and

Driver: Increasing sea level

wetlands;

ogy) of estuaries, tidal wetlands, and tidal

rivers;

supplies

1 Some effects will have to be accepted,

be found For example, Florida may have

to accept the loss of its coral reefs

2 Some effects can be mitigated, meaning

that strategies and actions will compensate

for some of the adverse effects For example,

the state may set aside additional coastal

3 Floridians will adapt, meaning that our

way of life, infrastructure, and/or economy

will have to change in order to maintain

the same quality of life to which Floridians

are accustomed For example, buildings

may need to be designed to new stan­

shorelines

R E S E A R C H P R I O R I T I E S

The Florida Oceans and Coastal Council has

and coastal research to improve levels of

and technology To accurately predict climate

to Florida

— ­

S E C T I O N

on Climate Change: II

The 2007 Report Summary

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a

1988 by the World Meteorological Organization

and the United Nations Environment Programme It

is made up of a large, diverse group of scientists,

and others with an objective source of information (7)

In 2007, both the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

were awarded the Nobel Peace Prize "for their

efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowl­

edge about man­made climate change, and to lay

the foundations for the measures that are needed to

counteract such change" (8)

“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal,

widespread melting of snow and ice and rising

global average sea level.”

In 2007, the panel issued its fourth report on global

Observed changes indicating global climate

change:

• Eleven of the last 12 years have been subject to

the warmest temperatures since 1850

• Sea levels have been rising faster since 1993

• Satellite data show Arctic sea ice, mountain

glaciers, and snow cover have shrunk since 1978

Causes of global climate change:

• Concentrations of greenhouse gases, especially

carbon dioxide, have increased

• Carbon dioxide emissions increased by 80 per­

cent between 1970 and 2004

Projected global climate change and impacts:

• Greenhouse gas emissions will continue to increase

• This increase will induce greater climate change in

the 21st century

• Atomospheric warming of 0.4 degrees Fahrenheit

(0.2 degress Celsius) per decade is projected

• Warming will likely be greatest in the northern

latitudes

• Permafrost and icepacks will thaw at faster rates

• Increases in temperature maxima will be associ­

ated with heavier precipitation

• Storm intensity will likely increase; periods of

drought may be longer

• Ocean acidity will increase

• Coastal flooding will increase due to sea­level rise

and storms

• Human health will be affected by increased heat,

floods, drought, and disease

• Some changes in climate could be abrupt and

irreversible

Available adaptations and steps to slow the pace

of global climate change:

• Increase water reuse and rainwater harvesting

• Create natural buffers against sea­level rise

• Develop heat­health action plans

• Develop renewable energy sources; reduce

carbon dioxide emissions

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S E C T I O N

and Economy

While all of the future impacts cannot be predicted, climate change has the potential to threaten every aspect of life in Florida, from essential infrastructure (such as buildings, roads, and fresh water supplies), to the health of residents and visitors, to the preservation of natural systems, to the state’s economic well­being and long­term sustainability The exact costs of dealing with these effects are not known, but they will be significant However, the costs

of inaction will be far greater, and some costs simply cannot be measured in dollars

I N F R A S T R U C T U R E I M P A C T S

and daily rainfall, and relative humidity and

tal design criteria and specifications, many of

Because current projections indicate that

sea level may rise over six inches during the

service life of a building, the risk for future

catastrophic damage is high, not only near

the coast (in large part due to Florida’s flat

terrain) but also in most inland regions

H U M A N H E A L T H I M P A C T S

the United States and around the world For

12) With over 1,200 miles of coastline, Florida

In addition, stormwater discharges carr y

land into coastal waterways Pulses of fecal

sure of beaches and shellfish beds and affect

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III

the frequency, intensity, and duration of toxin­ E C O N O M I C I M P A C T S

and promote the emergence of previously

In other parts of the world, increases in water­

as malaria and dengue fever, into areas where

they do not currently exist, such as warmer re­

as coral reefs, mangroves, and seagrasses, will

with disease­fighting properties (16)

Changes in climate patterns and extreme cli

matic events have had a wide range of neg

ative effects on human health and well being

in the United States and around the world

By monitoring a range of environmental factors

such as sea­surface temperature and height,

can be made using remote sensing data from

The economic and financial costs associated

with such change can be direct or indirect

Some costs are called “hidden” because they

may be difficult to identify and quantify Many

on human quality of life and the destruction of

Some sectors of the economy may benefit from

A recent national study, sponsored by the Center

for Health and the Global Environment at

will be unevenly distributed across regions and

on public sector budgets The secondary

Negative impacts will outweigh bene

fits for most sectors that provide goods and

services The impacts will place immense

strains on public sector budgets The sec

ondary impacts of climate change can in

clude higher prices, reduced incomes, and

job losses

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III

The same study predicts that major impacts on

the southeast United States (including Florida)

will be felt most acutely in coastal infrastructure

are closely linked For example, energy supply

few of these interrelationships typically enter

the economic cost assessments

The study addresses both optimistic (rapid sta­

and pessimistic scenarios (no change in the

just four categories of economic activity—

IV “Drivers” of Climate Change

and Their Effects on Florida’s

Ocean and Coastal Resources

The further Floridians look into the future, the more uncertain are the predicted consequences of climate change This section identifies what is currently known, what is probable, and what is possible about the drivers of climate change and their effects on Florida

D R I V E R : Increasing Greenhouse Gases

Earth’s temperature is rising because the levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases that retain

atmospheric heat are increasing This increase is largely a consequence of human activities that use energy,

particularly fossil fuels such as oil and coal All of these gases are absorbed by the oceans (19)

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IV

W H A T W E K N O W :

• From 1980 to 1989, the carbon content of the

Earth’s atmosphere is estimated to have risen by

a rate of about 3.4 billion tons of carbon per

year, with an estimated error of ± 0.2 billion

tons (20, 21)

• Over the last 650,000 years, levels of atmos­

pheric carbon dioxide have fluctuated between

180 to 280 parts per million by volume (5)

• The rate of change in increases in atmospheric

carbon dioxide has been about 100 times

faster in recent decades than over the past

650,000 years Concentrations of other

greenhouse gases, such as methane and nitrous

oxide, have also increased significantly (5)

• Most of the increase in average atmospheric

temperatures since the mid­20th century is due

to increases in greenhouse gases

W H A T I S P R O B A B L E :

• Atmospheric carbon dioxide will continue to increase

at the rate of about 0.5 percent per year for at least

the next few decades (22)

• Water quality will continue to change because of

the absorption of increased greenhouse gases by

the oceans (23)

• Increases in pollutant emissions will result in the increased introduction of nutrients and toxins into surface waters

• Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above current rates would cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st century that would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20th century

W H A T I S P O S S I B L E :

• Atmospheric carbon dioxide will stabilize if global emissions are reduced by 30 percent or more despite increases in global population (5)

• The rate of atmospheric greenhouse gas increase will markedly accelerate due to positive feedback processes not currently accommodated in model projections (5)

IV “Drivers” of Climate Change

and Their Effects on Florida’s

Ocean and Coastal Resources

E F F E C T : Increases in Ocean Acidification

As levels of carbon dioxide in ocean waters increase, the oceans become more acidic The average pH of

the ocean has been approximately 8.3 units A downward change in any pH value means an increase in acidity

A change of as little as 0.1 pH unit can have a large impact on organisms living in the sea because it repre

sents a 30 percent increase in acidity

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W H A T W E K N O W :

• The average pH of the world’s oceans has

fallen by 0.1 pH unit since 1750 because of

the uptake of carbon dioxide created by human

activities (24)

• Marine organisms with calcium carbonate

shells or skeletons, such as corals, clams, and

some plankton at the base of the food chain,

can be adversely affected by decreases in pH

and carbonate saturation state (5, 26) A

higher carbonate saturation state favors the pre­

cipitation of calcium carbonate, a mineral in

their shells, while a lower state supports its disso­

lution into the water

• Ocean chemistry is changing at least 100 times

more rapidly today than at any time during the

650,000 years prior to the industrial era (22)

W H A T I S P R O B A B L E :

• An additional decrease in pH is under way (25,

27).

• With decreases in the pH of seawater, which is a

measure of its relative acidity, some marine plants

may show increases in production until a particular

threshold is met, and then will decline

• Some marine organisms will not be able to tolerate

the predicted decreases in pH in the ocean

• Carbonate sediment dissolution will accelerate as

pH decreases (28)

W H A T I S P O S S I B L E :

• The average pH of the world’s oceans may de­ crease by as much as 0.1 to 0.4 pH units over the next 90 years (29)

• Ocean acidification may lead to shifts in marine ecosystem structure and dynamics that can alter the biological production and export of organic carbon and calcium carbonate from the ocean surface (29).

• Important fisheries habitats, such as coral reefs, will markedly decline or disappear (22, 27)

IV “Drivers” of Climate Change

and Their Effects on Florida’s

Ocean and Coastal Resources

D R I V E R : Increasing Air Temperature and Water Vapor

Water vapor, the most abundant greenhouse gas, is an important factor causing uncertainty in climate prediction

models As air temperature increases, its capacity to hold water vapor increases However, clouds may have a

cooling or heating effect, and cloud processes are one of the largest sources of uncertainty in climate change pro

jections Our inability to correctly characterize the effects of water vapor greatly complicates climate forecasts

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IV

W H A T W E K N O W :

• Mean global atmospheric temperature has

increased by more than 1.1 degrees Fahren­

heit (0.6 degrees Celsius) since 1901 (5)

• Since the 1980s, the atmospheric column

average water vapor concentration has

increased by 1.2 percent (5)

W H A T I S P R O B A B L E :

• Coastal air temperature observations around Florida

since the 1830s do not show any statistically signifi­

cant trend (30)

• Air temperature in south Florida may increase

because of changes in land use and land cover,

such as urbanization and the reduction of wetlands

(31, 32)

• Global average air temperatures are projected to in­

crease by 2.5 to 10.4 degrees Fahrenheit (1.4 and

5.8 degrees Celsius) by 2100 (5)

W H A T I S P O S S I B L E :

• Florida may begin to experience increasing air

temperatures.