Thorne Thomas Oil Spill ms final draft for submission

Thomas 2 1 Prince William Sound Science Center, Cordova, AK 99574, email- rthorne@pwssc.org 2 Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway Miami, Flo

The Exxon Valdez Oil Spill and the Collapse of the Prince William Sound Herring Stock

Richard E Thorne 1 and Gary L Thomas 2

1 Prince William Sound Science Center, Cordova, AK 99574, email- rthorne@pwssc.org

2 Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway

Miami, Florida 33149, email- gthomas@rsmas.miami.edu

Abstract

A collapse of the Pacific herring Clupea pallasi stock population in Prince William Sound was detected in

1993, but not linked to the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill because of the intervening four years However, a relatively obscure index of herring abundance known as the mile-days of spawn suggests the collapse actually took place over several years and began immediately after the oil spill A 20-year series of acoustic surveys of the herring biomass, began in 1993, indicates that the mile-days index was a more accurate measure of herring abundance than the fishery management forecasts, which are largely based on age-structured models Unknown at the time but now well-documented are the highly aggregated

distribution of the adult herring stock in late-winter and their nighttime behavior of surfacing to gulp air These behaviors provide a plausible mechanism for oil exposure to the bulk of the adult herring stock, which was corroborated by measurements of high PAH in adult herring after the spill Such damage would have invalidated the fishery management models, which assume a constant natural mortality The inability of the management models to account for acute adult herring mortality seriously limits their use

in damage detection and assessment

Introduction

On March 23, 1989, the oil tanker, Exxon Valdez, hit Bligh Reef and spilled 11 million gallons

(38,800 tons) of crude oil into Prince William Sound (PWS) Over the subsequent three years, commercial herring fishers harvested about 65,000 tons of herring (Clupea pallasi) It appeared that the Exxon Valdez Oil Spill (EVOS) had no impact on the herring In 1993, fishery

managers forecast an adult herring biomass of 133,852 tons, based on an Age Structured

Assessment (ASA) model (Funk 1993; Quinn and Deriso 1999; Brown 2007; Hulson et al 2008) However, commercial fishers were unable to locate fishable concentrations An acoustic survey in fall 1993, the first of 20 annual acoustic surveys conducted by the senior author, estimated the adult population to be only 18,812 tons (95% CI ± 3,140) Subsequently the ASA model estimate was revised downward, and the plunge from the 1992 estimate to the new 1993 estimate was referred to as the 1993 herring collapse (Brown 2007; Hulson et al 2008) Because this collapse occurred four years after EVOS, the collapse was not attributed to the oil spill The

1989 year class was a recruitment failure in 1993 that was clearly associated with EVOS

(Peterson et al 2003; Brown 2003, 2007) However, this recruitment failure was too small to explain the collapse So instead, a disease outbreak was hypothesized as the cause, even though there were no observations of surface mats of dead herring as seen in many other, much smaller disease outbreaks and disease monitoring did not start until 1994 (Quinn et al 2001)

In early 2002, after a decade of acoustic surveys, we initiated analyses to find other sources of information to compare with our results We found our best correlation with a relatively obscure index referred to as the “mile-days of spawn” Subsequent examination of this index revealed a multiyear decline that began in 1989 With this information, we first challenged the concept of a

1993 collapse and the lack of impact by EVOS (Thomas and Thorne 2003) In this paper, we examine these data and subsequent studies in further detail We argue first that the collapse of

the PWS herring stock was temporally associated with EVOS We then present evidence for a causal relationship Finally we argue that indirect fishery assessment techniques, such as Age Structure Assessment, do not appear to be able to detect acute mortalities in adult fish This analysis includes comparisons of the estimates from the acoustic surveys, mile-days of spawn and ASA models as well as the management forecasts

Methods

The general use of acoustic methods for fisheries assessment is described in Simmonds and MacLennan (2005) Applications to Pacific herring are well documented (Thorne 1977a,b; Thorne et al 1983; Trumble et al 1983) The methods we use in PWS are detailed in several publications, including Thomas et al (1997), Thomas and Thorne (2003) and Thorne and

Thomas (2008) They are similar to standard methods except that we use a three-stage adaptive sampling methodology rather than systematic transects Our approach includes extensive aerial and sonar surveys to locate fish concentrations and multiple surveys of each concentration Since 2008 we have also adjusted the herring acoustic target strengths based on the herring depth, following Thomas et al (2002) This recent change has had only a minor impact since our original assumption of a depth distribution centered at 40 m has been supported by subsequent data

The mile-days of spawn index is an aerial survey of the cumulative linear extent of herring spawn (milt) along beaches that has been collected by Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADFG) since 1973 (Becker and Biggs 1992) Multiple aerial surveys (>20) are conducted

during the approximately one-month duration of spawning The database contains over 6000 independent observations of herring spawning events in PWS The current methodology, used since 2001 when GIS tracking was incorporated, records spawning events as arcs (linestrings) using GIS technology Recently the older data were reanalyzed by reconstructing flight paths and recalculating lengths using ArcMap The mile-days of spawn was never viewed as a primary measure of stock abundance (Brown 2007), and was given low weight as an auxiliary input in the development of the ASA model (Quinn et al 2001)

Age data from herring in PWS have been collected by ADFG since 1973 (Funk and Sandone 1990) The ASA model has been run to forecast the PWS adult herring biomass most years since

1993, and has included several versions (Quinn et al 2001; Hulson et al 2008) Standard

practice for model runs is to reconstruct the population history of the herring since 1980 Recent versions of the ASA model incorporate both the mile-days index and the acoustic estimates, as well as disease indices (Quinn et al 2001; Hulson et al 2008) The current model used by ADFG

is described in Hulson et al (2008), where it is referred to as the M4 model It is also called the Moffett 2005 version since it was first applied to forecast the 2005 run by Steve Moffitt, lead herring biologist for ADFG, Cordova

Management of the PWS herring stock is based on a harvest policy established by the Alaska Board of Fisheries that specifies a maximum 20% exploitation rate (Brown 2007) The

allowable harvest is based on biomass estimates established the previous year modified by the expected growth and survival over the year Aerial surveys (visual estimates from spotter pilots) were used to estimate the biomass of herring schools from 1973 to 87 (Biggs and Baker 1993;

Brown 2003, 2007) Egg deposition surveys were a primary estimation technique from

1988-1992 (Biggs and Baker 1993; Brown 2003, 2007) During the same period, virtual population

analysis was used to develop an ASA model to track survival of adult herring by age (Doubleday 1976; Deriso et al 1985; Funk and Sandone 1990; Funk and Harris 1992) Population estimates from egg deposition and aerial surveys along with regional age structure information were inputs for the ASA models The ASA modeling estimates became increasing important as a primary tool for setting fishing quotas and estimating population size and became the primary basis for management forecasts in 1992 when an age-structured model was first used to forecast the 1993

stock biomass (Funk 1993, 94; Brown 2007) Various age-structured models have been used

subsequently (Quinn et al 2001; Hulson et al 2008) Subsequent to 1992, all the fishery

management forecast data used in this paper come from real-time ADFG publications of annual forecasts (www.cf.adfg.state.ak.us)

Thomas and Thorne (2003) showed that the cumulative mile-days of milt index from the aerial surveys correlated well with the acoustic estimates from 1993 to 2002 We subsequently

converted the mile-days index to an absolute measure through its regression with the acoustic estimates, often referred to as the mile-days biomass model This procedure allows us to

compare the index in absolute terms with the other databases, which are also expressed in

absolute values of herring biomass In this paper we use the regression based on the 1993 to

2006 update of the model, which has the best correlation (r = 68, p≤.05) and incorporates the recalculated index values It is important to note that the mile-days index and associated model estimates are post-fishery Comparisons with pre-fishery estimates need to account for harvests The acoustic surveys have been pre-fishery since 1995 There has not been a fishery since 1998

The mile-days biomass model estimates agree with the acoustic measurements and/or the

direction of change in almost all cases (Fig 1)

Results

The Timing of the Collapse

The herring biomass estimates as derived above from the mile-days index declined every year after its 1988 peak except for 1991 when it experienced a slight increase associated with a large recruitment from the1988 (pre-EVOS) year class (Fig 2) The fishery management forecast data substantially lag the pattern shown by the mile-days estimates In particular, while the mile-days biomass estimates drop precipitously after the 1989 oil spill, the management forecasts portray a continuing high population through 1993 (although the 1993 forecast was revised downward after the 1993 run failure) Fishery harvests during this time were the highest since the days of the reduction fishery (Brown 2007) with 65,000 tons removed Back-calculated estimates from the current ASA model actually agree well with the mile-days estimates when adjusted to the same post-harvest basis (Fig 2) In fact, the decline calculated from the current ASA model between 1989 and 1992 is more than 3 times greater than the magnitude of the decline during the

so called year of collapse (1992-1993) Thus both the mile-days data and the updated ASA estimates are in agreement that the collapse was multi-year beginning immediately after the EVOS

A Possible Mechanism for Damage by EVOS

In 1990, we published a paper in the Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences that described an interesting phenomenon, that of gas bubble release by herring (Thorne and Thomas 1990) We hypothesized in the paper that herring would have to surface to replace the gas since they did not have gas production capability There have been many subsequent verifications of this phenomenon in both Pacific and Atlantic herring (Nottestad 1998, Wilson et al 2004, Thorne and Thomas 2008)

It is well documented that the oil spill covered the primary areas of herring concentration in PWS There were also direct observations of herring in distress underneath the oil in 1989, some

of which were reported in newspaper coverage of the oil spill There were only two options for herring: either surface and find oil rather than air, or continue to lose gas and sink to the bottom While there have been no studies to directly address the impact of such circumstances on adult herring, it is highly likely that the impact would be deleterious There were measurements of high PAH levels in adult herring after the spill (Brown 2003).

Biomass Estimates and Lag Times

The fishery management forecast data clearly lagged the pattern of decline shown by the mile-days estimates (Fig 2) This delayed response was repeated later The herring population began

to recover after a low in 1994 By 1997 estimates from the acoustics, the mile-days biomass

model and the ASA model forecast all agree that the stock had recovered to a biomass of more than 30,000 mt, and a commercial fishery was reopened However, after the resumption of the commercial fishery in 1997, both the acoustic and mile-days estimates declined in 1998 In the case of the acoustics, the decline was substantial By 1998, both the acoustics and mile-days estimates showed a substantial decline, but the ASA model-based forecasts did not decline until

2000 (Fig 2) In 1989, the management forecast model moved in the wrong direction and did not detect the decline until five years later For the 1998 decline the lag time was two years

The ASA model has been revised several times (Hulson et al 2008) Back calculations using the ASA model in current use come closer to the historical biomass values of the acoustics and the mile-days model, but still lag and overestimate slightly (Fig 2)

Discussion

The original concept of a 1993 collapse was the result of an apparent drop from the 1993 forecast

of 133,852 tons to the 18,812 ton estimate from the first acoustic survey in fall 1993 However, there is universal agreement that the original forecast was in error The revised ASA in 1994 suggested that the decline was from 91,792 tons to 32,049 tons, while the most recent (2005 ASA hindcast) suggests a decline from 81,410 tons to 33,480 However, when the 27,700 ton commercial harvest of spring 1992 is subtracted, the actual natural decline between April 1992 and March 1993 was only about 20,000 tons, an amount less than the previous year’s harvest Since the recruitment from the 1989 year class was a total failure due to EVOS, the 20,000 ton

decline hardly meets the standards of a collapse and does not require the intervention of a major disease catastrophe

Nottesad (1998) only reported gas bubble release by Atlantic herring He did not observe

gulping of air at the surface However, our original observation of gas bubble release by Pacific herring was followed by literally hundreds of observations of surface air gulping by both adult and juvenile herring, including night observations using infrared cameras (Thomas and Thorne 2001) The research by Ben Wilson (University of British Columbia) and Lawrence Dill (Simon Fraser University) focused on sound production associated with gas bubble release, but did include verification of surface gulping It is unfortunate that no experiments have been

conducted, to our knowledge, on the direct impact of surface oil on herring It would seem a logical avenue of experimentation given the widespread suspicions of damage to clupeids from oil spills associated with locations such as Cherry Point in Washington State and Sakhalin Island

in Russia (Thorne and Thomas 2008) The lack of such experimental efforts associated with

Prince William Sound are likely a product of the delayed recognition of injury to herring

We believe the lag times we observed for detecting changes in stock biomass are a serious structural flaw in the preseason fishery forecast methods that are dominant in fisheries

management today (Quinn and Deriso 1999) The possibility of a one year lag time when using preseason forecasting was identified briefly in the 1998 NRC review of fish stock assessment, but it was not pursued as an inherent flaw of the method (Anon 1998) The possibility of longer

lag times was not discussed Fisheries models do have an inherent one-year lag-time The ASA

forecasts are based on the previous year’s data Actual measures of subsequent mortality and

recruitment are not included In contrast, the acoustic surveys provide a fishery-independent, real-time estimate of fishery abundance in the same season as the fishery so lag time is not an

issue The mile-days index provides a post-fishery measure of population size The inherent one

year lag likely played a role in the initial erroneous ASA estimate, since the oil spill added an undetected mortality to both juveniles and adults The original 133,852 ton estimate for 1993 was driven by the observation of a high ratio of 1988 year class herring compared to older adults

In retrospect, this high ratio did not reflect a large 1988 year class as much as it reflected an unexpectedly low older adult abundance due to oil spill mortality Since the ASA model makes

an assumption about natural mortality, it is especially sensitive to undetected higher mortality of adults Our data suggest the lag time is more than one year, which warrants further investigation

It is possible that inherent averaging functions in the model structure add inertia that leads to greater lag The current ASA model used for herring management in PWS includes inputs from the acoustics and mile-days index, and appears to do a better job However, most fishery

management models are not this sophisticated, and while they generally accomplish their

management function, they do not have the capability to detect the acute mortalities that may be associated with a catastrophe such as an oil spill

Literature Cited

Anon 1998 Improving Stock Assessment National Research Council Washington D.C.:

National Academy Press