Combining farm and regional level modelling for integrated resource management in east and south east asia

The approach comprises the following steps: i inventory/quantification of current land use systems, resource availability, management practices and policy views, ii analysis of alternati

Combining farm and regional level modelling for Integrated Resource

Management in East and South-east Asia

Reimund P Roettera,* , Marrit van den Bergb , c

, Alice G Laborted, Huib Hengsdijke, Joost Wolfa, Martin van Ittersumb, Herman van Keulenb,e, Epifania O Agustinf,

aAlterra, Soil Science Centre, Wageningen UR, P.O Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands

bPlant Production Systems, Wageningen University, P.O Box 430, 6700 AK Wageningen, The Netherlands

cDevelopment Economics, Wageningen University, P.O Box 8130, 6700 EW Wageningen, The Netherlands

dInternational Rice Research Institute (IRRI), DAPO, P.O Box 7777, Metro Manila, Philippines

ePlant Research International, Wageningen UR, P.O Box 16, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands

fMariano Marcos State University, Batac, Ilocos Norte, Philippines

gNational Institute for Soils and Fertilizer, Hanoi, Vietnam

hCuu Long Delta Rice Research Institute, Omon, Cantho, Vietnam

iZhejiang University, Hangzhou, PR China

Received 29 July 2004; received in revised form 3 February 2005; accepted 14 July 2005

Available online 18 November 2005

Abstract

Currently, in many of the highly productive lowland areas of East and South-east Asia a trend to further intensification and diversification of agricultural land use can be observed Growing economies and urbanization also increase the claims on land and water by non-agricultural uses

As a result, decisions related to the management and planning of scarce resources become increasingly complex Technological innovations at the field/farm level are necessary but not sufficient e changes in resource use at regional scale will also be essential To support decision-making

in such situations, we advocate a multi-scale modelling approach embedded in a sound participatory process To this end, the Integrated Re-source Management and Land use Analysis (IRMLA) Project is developing an analytical framework and methods for reRe-source use analysis and planning, for four sites in Asia In the envisaged multi-scale approach, integration of results from field, farm, district and provincial level analysis is based on interactive multiple goal linear programming (IMGLP), farm household modelling (FHM), production ecological concepts and participatory techniques The approach comprises the following steps: (i) inventory/quantification of current land use systems, resource availability, management practices and policy views, (ii) analysis of alternative, innovative land use systems/technologies, (iii) exploration of the opportunities and limitations to change resource use at regional scale under alternative future scenarios, (iv) modelling decision behaviour

of farmers and identification of feasible policy interventions, and (v) synthesis of results from farm to regional level for negotiation of the most promising options by a stakeholder platform In the current paper, the operationalisation of dual-scale analysis is illustrated by the outputs (de-velopment scenarios, promising policy measures and innovative production systems) from various component models for the case study Ilocos Norte, Philippines An approach is discussed for the integration of results from the different model components at two different decision making levels (farm and province)

Ó2005 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved

Keywords: Land use conflicts; Scenario analysis; Linear programming; Bio-economic models; Rice-based farming; Philippines

* Corresponding author Tel.: C31 317 474229; fax: C31 317 419000.

E-mail address:reimund.roetter@wur.nl (R.P Roetter).

1364-8152/$ - see front matter Ó 2005 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved.

doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2005.07.015

www.elsevier.com/locate/envsoft

Software availability

Name of the software: IRMLA land use analysis tools/LP

models for Dingras/Ilocos Norte

1 IRMLA land use analysis tools contain farm household and

regional LP models and a generic technical

coeffi-cient generator

2 LP models: linear programming models for case study

Dingras/Ilocos Norte

Developer and contact address: (i) IRMLA tools e developed

by the IRMLA Project; Coordinator: Soil Science

Centre, Wageningen UR, Droevendaalsesteeg 3;

6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands,www.irmla

alterra.nl; (ii) Developer LP models for specific case

study: Marrit van den Berg, Social Sciences Group,

Wageningen University

Tel.: +31 317 47 4327 or 4229; fax.: +31 317 419 000

E-mail:reimund.roetter@wur.nl; (Alterra)marrit.vandenberg@

Year first availability: 2005

Hardware required: A platform to run MS WindowsÔ 32-bit

applications

Software required: GAMS 2.50 Professional Version, GAMS

Development Cooperation; and Microsoft Office

(Excel)

Program language: GAMS (LP models)

Program size: 10 MB (whole set)

Availability and cost: at request

1 Introduction

Agricultural systems in East and South-east Asia are being

challenged by the simultaneous requirements for increased

pro-ductivity, more diversified products and reduced environmental

impact, creating potential conflict situations among various

stakeholder groups regarding land use objectives and resource

use Current land use policies in general inadequately take into

consideration multiple objectives and the increasingly complex

nature of resource management decisions (Walker, 2002;

Lu et al., 2004) In such situations, effective systems analysis

tools at different scales may be useful to identify conflicts

and design sustainable land use systems and supportive policy

options (Van Ittersum et al., 1998)

Since the early 1980s, a range of complementary analytical

frameworks and operational tools have been developed

Ittersum et al., 1998, 2004) On the basis of their objectives

we can distinguish explorative and predictive tools

Explor-ative tools analyse the potential for different natural resource

use strategies, often at regional or farm scale To this purpose,

a frequently used procedure is interactive multiple goal linear

programming (IMGLP) (Spronk and Veeneklaas, 1983; De

options under different sets of objectives and constraints

Re-gional IMGLP models as operationalised in the SysNet project

(Roetter et al., 2005) form one of the major building blocks of

the Integrated Resource Management and Land use Analysis (IRMLA) approach to multi-scale analysis

So-called predictive tools are required to analyse the likely land use changes in the short term as a result of introducing alternative agricultural policies and technologies (Bouman

modelling (FHM) is applied for simulating the impact of feasible changes in policy and technology choice for different (model) farm groups in a study area (Kruseman and Bade,

1998) FHM is the second major tool in the IRMLA project

In most cases, the various modelling approaches, whether exploratory or predictive have been applied separately at

a single scale This can only shed partial light on solutions

to agricultural and environmental policy problems which are essentially of a multi-scale nature Policy makers at the pro-vincial level, for instance, have only a limited number of var-iables that they can control Varvar-iables such as choice of crop, area cultivated and fertilizer and pesticide rates are decided by

a huge number of other decision makers, i.e farmers, which apply different criteria Candler et al (1981) addressed this problem and examined the potential contribution of multilevel programming to solve two-level (publiceprivate interest) con-flicts They detected a range of algorithmic problems in mul-tilevel programming Solutions were only found for special cases To make things even more complicated, public interest

at one level (e.g province) may be in conflict with the public interest at another level (e.g municipality) Integration of re-sults from different scales, hence, remains a research challenge (Bouman et al., 2000)

In this paper we do not intend to resolve the problems in-herent to multilevel programming Rather we want to demon-strate that, as a first step, combination of farm household modelling and regional multiple goal linear programming em-bedded in participatory processes can overcome shortcomings

of single-level modelling This will be illustrated by confront-ing results from regional level explorations with farm house-hold level analysis of the best land use strategy in Ilocos Norte province, Philippines The result from this dual-scale analysis will help to identify the options for promoting more resource use-efficient production technologies than presently practiced

2 Case study characterization

2.1 Site description

Ilocos Norte province, in north-western Luzon, Philippines, has a population of nearly 0.5 million people and a total land resource of 0.34 million ha, of which 46% is covered by forests Mean annual rainfall ranges between 1650 mm in the southwest to more than 2400 mm in the eastern mountain ranges On average, 6e7 typhoons per year cross the province (mostly between August and November) Soils have developed from very diverse parent materials In the lowlands, sandy loams developed from alluvial deposits are predominant (Fig 1) About 38% of the total area is classified as agricultural

land (Roetter et al., 2000) Agricultural activities are most

intensive in the central lowlands Rice-based production

sys-tems prevail Rice is grown in the wet season (JuneeOctober),

whereas diversified cropping (tobacco, garlic, onion, maize,

sweet pepper and tomato) is practiced in the dry season, using

irrigation (mainly) from groundwater A fairly-developed

mar-keting system facilitates this diverse production system of rice

and cash crops (Lucas et al., 1999) Yet agricultural

productiv-ity and income are low compared to other areas in East and

South-east Asia, mainly due to a relatively low cropping

inten-sity, underdeveloped irrigation systems and a small average

farm size The major environmental problems are soil erosion

on hilly land in the eastern parts and groundwater pollution in

the lowlands (Lansigan et al., 1998; Tripathi et al., 1997)

For analysis at the household level, we focus on only

one of the 22 municipalities of the province: Dingras Farm

household analysis requires accurate classification of farm

households on the basis of their resources, activities and

mar-ket access Given the large heterogeneity of farms in the

prov-ince, specification of a limited number of relevant farm types

is not feasible on the provincial scale The IRMLA project has

selected two municipalities (Fig 2) for analysis that represent

both ends of the land use range in Ilocos Norte: Batac, with an

extremely diversified cropping pattern, and Dingras, with a rel-atively strong focus on rice production As indicated, this pa-per presents results for the latter municipality, which is located

in the inner lowlands of Ilocos Norte about 10e15 km to the East from the main road connecting the provincial capital Laoag with Ilocos Sur The municipality has a population of 33,300 persons and a total land resource of 17,310 ha, of which 55% is agricultural land

2.2 Land use issues and agricultural development perspectives for Ilocos Norte

According to current local government views, agriculture will maintain its central role in the economic development of Ilocos Norte province However, agriculture will have to be-come more productive and increasingly compete for land with industrial and tourism areas Competition for scarce natu-ral resources, particularly land and water, is evident in the most recent provincial development plan, which includes conversion

of some agricultural areas into other uses Such conversion will not spare the strategic zones for agriculture and fisheries devel-opment identified in earlier plans, such as Dingras municipality

Fig 1 Ilocos Norte province: location in the Philippines (left) and map showing soil texture groups and location of Dingras municipality indicated (right).

Views on development objectives and resource use are,

at least, partly conflicting, as previous dialogues between

scientists and Ilocano stakeholders had revealed (Roetter and

Laborte, 2000)

In three stakeholder workshops held between 2002 and

2004, different stakeholder groups were involved in discussing

future land use objectives and development goals:

(1) Provincial planners and policy makers

(2) Municipal, agricultural, planning and development officers

(Dingras)

(3) Farmers’ and people’s organizations (operating within

Dingras municipality)

(4) Local scientists (MMSU)

The presentations from and discussions among the

dif-ferent stakeholder groups e which were all documented

(e.g in:Roetter, 2002; Roetter and Wolf, 2003) e are summa-rized below

Provincial planners and policy makers expressed the need

to maintain rice production at current levels to feed the popu-lation, while promoting intensification and diversification of production to raise farmer’s income could help achieve a boost

in local income The long-term objective is transformation into

an industrialized province and tourist destination with a well-managed environment

Municipal officers largely agreed with the provincial objec-tives However, they did not consider their municipality as suitable for developing tourist attractions A major concern

of the farmers was the high input costs (especially for fertilizer, biocides) vis-a`-vis low prices for agricultural produce Fur-thermore, for shifting to other crops such as fruits and vegeta-bles, lack of capital/access to credit was seen as a major constraint

Scientists as well as stakeholders at provincial level stressed that environmental issues, such as nitrate pollution and excessive pesticide residues needed to be addressed Pub-lic awareness of current and possible future negative environ-mental effects resulting from high input use of diversified agricultural systems, especially in the lowlands, was created through research on groundwater pollution by the RLRRC, the Rainfed Lowland Rice Research Consortium, coordinated

by IRRI (Lucas et al., 1999; Tripathi et al., 1997) One ques-tion that came up in subsequent discussion was, if there was

a policy regulating the use of chemicals (fertilizers and bio-cides), how would this affect farmers’ income and production level (targets for different crops)? This subsequently led to the proposal to examine the consequences of different production technologies for agricultural production and land use at pro-vincial level, and, analyse the impact of a number of policy in-terventions on the chance that improved technologies would

be adopted at the farm level These considerations led to for-mulation of a limited number of scenarios (land use scenarios

at provincial and policy interventions at farm level) as presented in Section3.1

3 Development and implementation of models and databases

3.1 Scenario construction

At the regional level, four major agricultural development goals were considered for scenario analysis: maximizing farmer income and rice production, and minimizing nitrogen fertilizer and biocide use (while maintaining a minimum level of in-come and/or crop production) This was to address the specific

‘what-if question’ put forward during stakeholder discussions: how does goal attainment (rice production, income, etc.) and land use allocation change, if under given resource availability and a set of available production activities, the production technologies change Three basic model runs were performed for analysing effects of changes in production technologies on the different land use objectives at provincial level This would

Fig 2 Location of municipalities within Ilocos Norte province.

illustrate gains and losses in terms of income, food production

and environmental goals

At the farm level, the effects of changes in fertilizer and

biocide prices, access to credit and off-farm employment on

technology choice, farmer income, rice production and

fertil-izer and biocide use were examined for representative farm

household types in Dingras

3.2 Three alternative production technologies

Three production technology levels were evaluated in both

the regional and farm models: (technology 1) ‘average farmer

practice’, (technology 2) ‘high yield/high input’ and

(technol-ogy 3) ‘high yield/improved practice’

The relevant inputeoutput coefficients for technologies 1

and 2 were derived from farm surveys in Ilocos Norte province

and Dingras municipality (Roetter et al., 2000; Roetter and

farms (after data cleaning) Technology 2 depicts the land

use of a group of survey farmers obtaining higher than average

output through intensive use of inputs For yields, the mean of

the values with a yield level between the 90th and 95th

percentile of the survey data was applied Fertilizer and pesti-cide use were assumed 100% higher and labour 70% higher, other inputs remaining identical to those in the average practice

For the ‘improved practice’ (technology 3), the same, high, yields as in technology 2 were assumed, but biocide inputs were reduced by 20% compared to those in ‘average farmers’ practice We, moreover, assumed higher fertilizer use efficiency than in the first two technologies For defining realistic improvements in fertilizer efficiency, we screened data from fertilizer experiments at Mariano Marcos State University (MMSU), Batac, Ilocos Norte (Pascua et al., 1998), at IRRI’s long-term continuous cropping experiment (LTCCE), and other pluri-annual and multi-site experiments on rice in the frame-work of the RTDP and RTOP Projects (Dobermann et al.,

2004) The resulting efficiencies were used to compute fertil-izer use in TechnoGIN, a program for generating inputeoutput coefficients using QUEFTS procedures to assess fertilizer requirements (Ponsioen et al., 2003) In comparison to tech-nology 1, average applications of N, P, and K were reduced

by 20% for non-rice crops For rice, a more balanced NPK ap-plication was assumed: N was reduced by 40%, P by 15% and

K increased by 20% In the first set of technical coefficients, also labour was reduced by 20% as compared ‘average farm-ers’ practice Discussion of preliminary results with stakehold-ers during in-country workshops, and consultation with local experts from Dingras, however, revealed that our assumption

on labour requirements for technology 3 would be too optimis-tic Based on revised estimates for technology 3 (representing

a combination of site-specific nutrient management (SSNM) and integrated pest management (IPM)), labour requirements were set to be 30% higher than average farmers’ practice This revised set of technical coefficients for technology 3 was only applied for farm household modelling in Dingras Characteristics of the three different technologies and main land use types (LUT) taken into account in the analyses are shown in Tables 1 and 2, respectively

3.3 Regional level

A model developed for Ilocos Norte province (Roetter

of development goals subject to constraints on land, water and labour resources, agricultural technology, and local de-mand for agricultural products

Data on resource availability and local demand have been assembled and adapted from a number of secondary sources The total area available for agriculture for the year 2010 was estimated at 119,850 ha (assuming an overall land use conver-sion rate of 7% from agriculture to non-agricultural uses) (Roetter et al., 2000) This area was divided into a total of

200 relatively uniform land units by over-laying biophysical characteristics (irrigated areas, annual rainfall and distribution, slope and soil texture) and administrative units, comprising 22 municipalities and one township Provincial demand for agri-cultural products was assessed on the basis of information on per capita demand and projected population from the

Table 1

Characteristics of the three different production technologies

Characteristic Production technology

(1) Current (2) High input (3) Improved

(SSNM C IPM)a Target yields Low High High

Amount of fertilizers Current Calculated

(Zrelatively high)

Calculated (Zrelatively low) Recovery fraction

of applied fertilizer

nutrients

Not used Low High

Labour requirements

for crop management

Current Slightly increased Strongly increased b

Labour requirements

for other tasks

Current About current About current Machine and fuel use Current Increased Increased

Biocide use Current Increased Reduced

a SSNM is site-specific nutrient management; IPM is integrated pest and

disease management.

b Definition of technology 3 differs in terms of labour requirements between

farm household and regional model (see, text).

Table 2

Main land use types (LUT) in the regional scale analyses for Ilocos Norte

province and the farm household analyses for Dingras municipality

RiceeCorn RiceeGarlic

RiceeTomato RiceeSweet pepper

RiceeEggplant RiceeMung bean

RiceeSweet potato RiceeTobacco

RiceeRiceeRice RiceeRiceeCorn

RiceeRiceeSweet pepper RiceeRiceeMung bean

RiceeRiceeTobacco RiceeBitter gourd

CorneCorn RiceeCorneCorn

RiceeCorneRice RiceeGroundnut

RiceeCotton RiceeOnion

Provincial Planning Office The demand for rice was estimated

at 112,610 t Labour-force and irrigation water were quantified

per month and per land unit and month, respectively, based on

census data and hydrological data (rainfall, ground and surface

water) from the province and trend projections Details on the

procedures applied to assess resource availability and

con-straints have been described in previous studies (Roetter

et al., 2000; Laborte et al., 2002)

These so-called land use types (LUTs) are selected on the

basis of farm surveys and comprise (i) single cropping of

root crops, sugarcane, and rice followed by fallow; (ii) double

cropping: two rice crops, rice in rotation with (yellow or

white) corn, garlic, mung bean, peanuts, tomato, tobacco,

cotton, potato, onion, sweet pepper, eggplant, and vegetables;

(iii) triple cropping: three rice crops, and rice in rotation with

garlic and mung bean, with (white or yellow) corn and mung

bean, and with water melon and mung bean For each LUT,

three different technologies were specified, as elaborated in

Section3.2

3.4 Farm level

The farm household models have essentially the same

structure as the provincial model, except that there is only

a single objective One model is developed for each of four

representative households, which are defined on the basis of

a comprehensive survey among 150 farm households All

models have the same structure but part of the coefficients

is different The models try to mimic household production

decisions They maximize income above subsistence, given

the household specific endowment of resources, minimum

consumption requirements, limits on off-farm employment

and credit, and generic crop technology and prices Future

extensions of the models will include the incorporation of

risk However, the model in its present form is sufficient for

illustrating the combined regional and farm level methodology

for land use analysis

Somewhat different land units and land use types are

de-fined for Dingras than for Ilocos Norte province, as different

scales of analysis require different classifications Six land

units were distinguished based on drainage conditions and

the presence and duration of surface irrigation Twenty-two

major cropping systems were identified on the basis of the

farm survey These include many triple cropping systems,

which have a relatively high incidence in Dingras and are

less important at the provincial level

The 150 households covered in the survey were classified

into four homogeneous groups based on their land, labour

and capital resources (including land rented in from absentee

landlords) The average resource endowments of each group

were used to define the representative households used in

the models The major characteristics of these households

are as follows:

 Medium farm, well drained: 0.92 ha of cultivated land, 64%

groundwater irrigation, 74% sharecropped

 Medium farm, poorly drained: 1.07 ha, 76% surface irriga-tion, 80% sharecropped

 Large farm: 1.63 ha, well drained, 85% surface irrigation, 86% sharecropped

 Small irrigated farm: 0.83 ha, well drained, 100% surface irrigation, 94% sharecropped

4 Results

4.1 Regional level

We consider two scenarios for presentation: (A) ‘maximize farmer income’, and (B) ‘maximize rice production’ (Table 3) For both scenarios, the satisfaction of provincial demand for major agricultural products and available land, labour and water were introduced as constraints

Results for scenario A show, among others, that if all farm-ers in Ilocos Norte would apply high input/high output tech-nology 2, their income would be considerably higher than with average-farmer technology 1 However, this would be achieved at the cost of high use of agrochemicals If all farm-ers would apply the improved, more resource-efficient practice (technology 3), even higher income levels than with technology

2 could be achieved at about 30% lower inputs of fertilizers and pesticides

For all technologies, in scenario A, total rice production would exceed the current production levels Site-specific and more balanced nutrient and pest management practices could lead to considerably higher incomes at reduced environmental costs, while still satisfying local demand for the main food crops: a clear winewin situation In scenario B, rice produc-tion under technology 1 was 295 thousand tons If all farmers would adopt technology 2 or 3, rice production would increase

by 67 and 74%, respectively This is more than four times the local demand for rice However, income reduction would range between 85 and 93% for the different all technologies,

as compared to scenario A

Results for scenario ‘‘Minimize N Fertilizer Use’’(not shown) indicate that application of technology 3 could reduce nitrogen fertilizer use by almost 70% as compared to technol-ogy 2, while still meeting the local demand for agricultural products Income from farming would be slightly higher

Table 3 Results of the regional explorations (year 2010): A Maximize farmers’ income and B Maximize rice production (constraints: land C water C labour and provincial demand for important food crops satisfied)

Variable Unit (A) Maximize farmers’

income

(B) Maximize rice production Tech 1 Tech 2 Tech 3 Tech 1 Tech 2 Tech 3 Income 109pesos 15.3 30.4 36.6 1.9 2.3 3.6 Rice 103t 119 226 241 295 494 514 Employment 106labdays 9.5 17.8 12.1 6.2 15.0 9.2 Biocide 103kg a.i 75 161.6 79.5 9.7 30.2 19.0

N fertilizer 103t 13.5 33.8 15.9 11.0 26.6 8.5 Land used % 100 91 96 30 44 46

than for technologies 1 and 2 In this scenario, however, for all

technologies only about one fifth of the available land would

be used and income from farming would be marginal

The regional model thus indicates that the use of improved

technologies will lead to a winewin situation of increased

in-come and productivity and decreased use of agrochemicals

However, this does not mean that farmers will adopt these

technologies A regional IMGLP model explores the window

of opportunities in terms of agricultural potential and technical

feasibility under different resource constraints Such

explora-tions look at the consequences of optimally allocating land

to different uses for a given set of objectives at provincial

scale, using a selection of agricultural activities and

produc-tion technologies that (by consensus) seem to be promising

Objectives of farmers and other decision makers at lower

scales are assumed subject to the provincial objectives In

re-ality, there are many resource managers with different

objec-tives and resource endowments, and groups using different

sets of criteria for guiding their decisions If several of these

stakeholder groups do not behave conform the regional

objectives, the government can use policies and programmes

to stimulate a change in behaviour towards the desired

direc-tion While regional IMGLP models address the question

‘‘what would be possible, and what would have to be

changed’’, farm household models (FHM) are used to provide

answers to how options for policy and technical change can be

best implemented In the following section, FHM is used as

a tool for assessing the potential impact of various

alternative policy interventions

4.2 Farm level

The base-run simulations show which crops and

technolo-gies the representative households select at current prices

and constraints assuming perfect knowledge about all technol-ogies (Table 4) Farmers use the relatively sustainable im-proved technology 3 only on dry land On irrigated land, they prefer high-input technology 2 Besides, the small and large farmers use (average) farmer technology (technology 1)

on part of their land due to credit constraints Income is clearly highest for the large farms, that also use most biocides and ni-trogen fertilizer Income of the small farmer is 16% higher than for the medium farmer, whereas the small farmer uses more than four times as much nitrogen fertilizer and almost three times as much biocides This difference is explained

by the use of the high-input technology on irrigated land and the (more resource use-efficient) improved technology on dry land Other than for the province as a whole, outputs of the household model show that the Dingras farmers use improved technology 3 only on dry land and prefer high-input technol-ogy 2 on irrigated land This is a result of using different sets of technical coefficients for the provincial and the farm household model Contrary to the provincial model, where technology 3 is characterized by 20% lower labour requirements than technology 1, in the FHM for Dingras adjustments were made after stakeholder consultation: labour requirements in technology 3 were set 30% higher than

in technology 1 (Section 3.4) e showing the importance of stakeholder dialogue for proper model development

We ran four scenarios to assess the impact of different pol-icies and developments on the model outcomes (Table 4) The first scenario simulates the removal of all credit constraints, which potentially leads not only to an increase in income but also in the use of agrochemicals Only the large and the small farmers were credit constrained in the base run The ul-timate effect of increased credit availability is relatively low for the large farmer, but high for the small farmer The latter uses the additional credit to substitute high-input technology

Table 4

Results of the farm household simulations for Dingras municipalitya

Income (10 # pesos)

Rice (t)

N fertilizer (kg)

Biocides (kg a.i.)

Area (ha)

Tech 1 (area share)

Tech 2 (area share)

Tech 3 (area share) Medium farm-well drained

Unlimited off-farm employment (%) 16 0 0 40 0 0 200 ÿ27 10% Increase in fertilizer prices (%) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10% Increase in biocide prices (%) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Large farm

Base run 656.0 11.8 376 1013 1.62 0.07 0.77 0.16

Unlimited off-farm employment (%) 12 ÿ8 1 ÿ1 ÿ14 29 18 ÿ100 10% Increase in fertilizer prices (%) ÿ1 ÿ4 ÿ5 ÿ5 0 114 ÿ9 ÿ6 10% Increase in biocide prices (%) ÿ2 ÿ7 ÿ7 ÿ7 0 143 ÿ14 6 Small irrigated farm

Base run 348.4 5.1 203 540 0.84 0.29 0.7 0.01 Unlimited credit (%) 15 41 23 19 0 ÿ100 41 0 Unlimited off-farm employment (%) 6 ÿ1 0 0 ÿ1 0 1 ÿ100 10% Increase in fertilizer prices (%) ÿ1 ÿ1 ÿ1 ÿ1 0 3 ÿ1 0 10% Increase in biocide prices (%) ÿ2 ÿ3 ÿ2 ÿ2 0 7 ÿ3 0

a The results for the medium farm-poorly drained are not listed, as they are very similar to those of the medium farm-well drained.

b Numbers for scenarios represent percentage changes to the base run.

2 for average-farmer technology 1 on almost one third of his

land This results in an increase of income by 15% and of

nitrogen and biocide use by 23% and 19%, respectively

At present, there is little off-farm employment, which

makes sustainable, labour-intensive production technologies

relatively attractive This could change in the future

Simula-tions show that the unlimited availability of off-farm

employment would lead to an increase in income of 12e16%

for all farmers, but to limited reduction in the use of

biocides and N fertilizer except for the medium farmer, who

increases his biocide use by 40% The latter shifts from the

labour intensive improved technology to the more

biocide-intensive high-input technology for the production of single

rice on his dry land The large farmer makes a shift from

improved technology to high-input technology and

average-farmer technology However, this hardly results in a higher

farm-level use of biocides as it is compensated by a decrease

in land rented in

Finally, we evaluated two price-change scenarios to assess

the potential of reducing input of agrochemicals through input

price policies The large farmer is affected most by this policy

and shifts between technologies Changing biocide prices is

most effective in decreasing the use of agrochemicals: a 10%

increase in biocide prices results in a 7% decrease in both the

use of fertilizers and biocides, while the same increase in

fertil-izer prices results in a decrease of 5% for both types of inputs

The other changes are minor

5 Discussion and outlook

There is a need for tremendous agricultural productivity

in-creases in the countries with high population densities in E and

SE Asia, such as the Philippines Such increase can only be

achieved durably by judicious use of external inputs and

nat-ural resources, and supportive policies Model results for the

province show the high potential of the new technologies to

improve income and sustainability at the same time, implicitly

suggesting that investment in agricultural research and

exten-sion is the answer

However, there are some pitfalls when generalizing

find-ings on possible efficiency increases from a few experiments

and survey data to a whole province, as was, for instance,

illustrated by the required revision of our assumptions based

on more in-depth surveys and iterative consultations in one

sub-region (i.e Dingras municipality) Moreover, there are

many constraints to optimizing resource use efficiency (such

as limited access to credit), which cannot be analysed using

the regional model Here, FHM comes in for analysing the

constraints and possibilities to adoption of sustainable

technol-ogies at the farm level

Analysis of the effectiveness of different policy instruments

(investment to improve access to credit, off-farm employment

and influence on prices in contributing to regional

develop-ment goals) was performed For this, a prototype model for

representative farm types in Dingras municipality was

ap-plied The model results show that the new technologies

(with coefficients adjusted using best expertise of local

conditions) are only attractive on dry land and not on land with surface irrigation The analysis of different policy instru-ments shows that trade-offs between income, rice production and ecological sustainability of agricultural production vary depending on farm type An important result is that increased availability of off-farm employment is likely to hamper adop-tion of sustainable technologies This illustrates that results from FHM clearly add value to the ‘‘broad strokes’’ of regional modelling

When developed and applied in close interaction with stakeholders, such dual-scale modelling approach can provide valuable information for policy development in relation to nat-ural resource management (Van Ittersum et al., 2004) Such process is currently underway in the case study regions of the IRMLA project (www.irmla.alterra.nl) In future studies for Ilocos Norte, however, conflicting land use objectives at the decision level of the farm, municipality and province should be taken into account Furthermore, there is scope to improve the methodology by considering production and price risks in farmers’ land use decisions

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