The Electoral College and Presidential Campaigns Working the System

Students are required to apply their knowledge of elections and the Electoral College system to use recent information on voter trends to examine the outcomes of the 2000 elections and

University of Virginia Center for Politics

The Electoral College and Presidential Campaigns:

Working the System

Purpose:

This lesson may be used on its own or as a continuation of the YLI lesson The Controversial

History of the Electoral College Students are required to apply their knowledge of elections and

the Electoral College system to use recent information on voter trends to examine the outcomes of the 2000 elections and predict the 2004 election using Sabato’s Crystal Ball website

Objectives:

1 Students will identify the pros and cons of the Electoral College system

2 Students will understand that voting trends in past elections affect where and how candidates campaign in upcoming elections

3 Students will be able to interpret maps of the 2004 Election, and make inferences about the outcome of the 2004 Presidential Election from maps and charts based on given sets of data on the Presidential Elections between 1972 and 2000

Key Words:

Electoral College indirect democracy plurality swing state

Battleground state

Materials:

1. Student copies, “The Electoral College: Pros and Cons article.

2. Transparency, Challenge! Number of Electoral Votes per State.

3. Computer lab or student copies, Interactive Electoral Map

(www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2004/president/electoratemap.php)

4. Student copies, Campaign Management Strategy: Election 2004 and Beyond.

5. Student copies or computer lab, 1972-2000 Presidential Election State Voting Trends, located

at: http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G04/President-1972-2000.phtml

6. Transparency of maps: Historical Perspectives on Presidential Electoral Votes, and

Presidential Election 2004: August Predictions.

Procedure:

1 Motivational Activity: Ask students if they have seen or heard any ads for the Presidential candidates on the TV or radio Record the name of the candidates and number of ads on the board (In some states students may not have been exposed to any ads.) Ask students to

theorize what this means about the importance of their state in the upcoming election

• Is the number of ads the same for all states? Why or why not?

• What does this tell us about the campaign strategies of the candidates?

• Why do the candidates spend more time advertising in some states and not in others?

2 Hand out copies of The Electoral College: Pros and Cons article, giving students 5-10 minutes

to read the excerpts Ask students to study the electoral map

• What is the advantage that small states have in the current system that would make those states not want to change it?

• Describe the arguments for and against the Electoral College system? Which arguments seem the strongest? Weakest?

• How are electoral votes allocated to a state? How might larger states seemingly benefit from this allocation, in terms of a candidates campaign choices?

Hint: A second version of this reading is provided for lower ability readers

3 Conduct a brief review of the main ideas from the previous lesson, When the Popular Vote

Wasn’t Good Enough by using the Challenge! Worksheet Ask the whole class to repeat

answers to the following questions:

• How many total votes are there in the Electoral College?

(538: 438 from the House, 100 from the Senate)

• How many votes does a president need from the Electoral College in order to win the election? (A majority: 270 votes)

• Which states would you choose to visit in order to win a clear majority of electoral votes?

• Which states might be “battleground” states? Why?

• What are some problems facing candidates as they decide which states to campaign heavily in?

4 Hand out copies of the map titled Historical Perspective on Presidential Votes Have students

review it and discuss the following questions This information can also be accessed on-line at www.greenpapers.com/G04/President-1972-2000.phtml

 What does the “GOP” represent?

(The “Grand Old Party” or the Republicans)

For more information, see: History of the GOP

 What states have voted for the GOP candidate consistently since 1988?

(The ‘blue’ states: VA, NC, SC, AL, AK, MS, TX, OK, KS, NE SD, ND, WY, UT, ID.)

 What states have been committed to Democratic candidates since 1988?

(States in yellow won Republican in 1988 and states in blue won Republican in all four elections listed on this map The states left that have NOT won Republican since 1988 are red, green, and white: AZ, CO, MT, GA, FL, WA, OR, HI, MN, IA, WI, WV, NY, DC, RI, MA.)

 How could this information be useful to a candidate running for office?

(Maps such as this one tell a candidate where and how he or she should campaign in order to maximize the number of votes received in the election.)

 Can you define the term indirect democracy and explain how it relates to the Electoral College?

(In U.S Elections, voters place their preference for a candidate in the general election, which

is considered “direct democracy.” The U.S system of elections is an “indirect democracy” because popular votes do not literally elect a president – Electoral College votes do, but the electors cast votes based (usually) upon how the popular votes “tell” them to vote In this way, the election describes an indirect democracy.)

5 Have students access the Crystal Ball website, www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ Ask students to respond to the following questions:

• What information is this map providing?

• Which states appear to be battleground states in the upcoming election? Which are swing states?

• According to the map, what are the fewest number of states that George W Bush needs

to win in order to secure a victory? Which states?

• According to the map, can John Kerry win the presidential election? If yes, how many

of the battleground states does he need to win in order to be elected? Which of those states would be important to winning the Electoral College?

Ask the students to click on one of the swing states and read the current election analysis for this state

• How could a candidate use this information to plan their campaign strategies?

6 Activity: Campaign Management Hand out the worksheet, Campaign Management Strategy

• Directions: Ask students to assume the role of campaign manager for a Democratic or

Republican presidential candidate The campaign manager’s job is to advise the candidate on how and where he should spend his time between now and Election Day Managers should explain how the map of historical perspectives on Electoral College votes will help them in advising their candidate Managers may also give consideration

to demographics and how they relate to your candidate’s policies and initiatives

 Instruct students to use the electoral maps and charts on recent voter trends in presidential elections to complete the activities on the worksheet

 Pair students up in campaign committees of 2-3 to work on the strategy

NOTE: This activity can be completed in the computer lab or by using the handouts

7 Have students share their advice for a campaign blitz Follow candidates on the campaign trail and compare student suggestions regarding where candidates should place their energy and where candidates actually make appearances Students may also make predictions about how often we will see the candidates in your state

8 Assessment Ask the students to reflect on the importance of the electoral college on campaign planning by asking them to respond to the following:

• How does the Electoral College affect the campaign strategies of the Presidential candidates?

• How do past elections influence campaign decisions in the 2004 election?

• What does this mean for voters in battleground and swing states?

• What does this mean for voters in other states?

To assess their learning students can complete any of the following activities:

• Write an essay that addresses each of the questions

• Create a political cartoon illustrating the questions

• Write a poem or song that demonstrates an understanding of the questions

• Create a thirty-second PSA that addresses the influence of electoral votes on the campaign process

Extension Activity:

1.The Third Party Influence

Background: For many, third parties are overlooked as an influential aspect of politics However, history has proven that third parties can affect the outcome of elections both positively and negatively

On one hand, third parties can have a positive influence because the issues that they run on their platforms can spur members of the two major parties to take on the issues that the third party brings up

Unfortunately, this typically means that one or both of the major parties swallow up the issues of the third party Third parties can also have a negative influence, because if the candidate running for a third party gains a considerable amount of popular votes during an election, he (she) is taking votes away from candidates of the two major parties

Questions to consider:

1 Historically, which third parties and third party candidates maintained successful campaigns in that either a) a candidate was elected President, or b) the issues of the party spurred candidates of the other two parties into action?

2 Were Pat Buchanan and Ralph Nader influential in the 2000 Presidential Election?

3 Ralph Nader has declared candidacy in the 2004 Election What issues will he take up? How can

he possibly affect the general election between John Kerry and George Bush?

4 Can Ralph Nader affect the outcome of the general election in 2004? How?

2 Have students access: www.archives.gov/federal_register/electoral_college/calculator.html

Direct the students to use the site to change the electoral votes based on the strategies suggested in the lesson Ask them to reflect on the outcome of their strategy

• What is the result of your campaign blitz on the Electoral College?

Campaign Management Strategy: Election 2004 and Beyond

Directions: Fill in the blanks on the following worksheet, using the maps and charts you have been given to answer the questions

A Interpreting Maps:

1 How many possible electoral votes are there?

2 How many electoral votes does a candidate need in order to win a presidential election?

3 Name the three states with the greatest number of electoral votes

4 Name the three states with the least number of electoral votes

5 What is the fewest number of states necessary to win an election?

6 How many electoral votes does Illinois (IL) have?

7 How many senators does Hawaii (HI) have?

8 How many members of the House of Representatives does Florida (FL) have?

9 How many electoral votes does your state have?

 How many senators does your state have?

 How many members of the House of Representatives does your state have? _

10 How many electoral votes does Washington, D.C have?

 How many senators does Washington, D.C have?

 How many members of the House of Representatives does Washington, D.C have?

 Why is this strange? What makes Washington, D.C a special case? _

11 If you were a campaign manager, where would you advise your candidate to go – California (CA), or Virginia (VA)? Why?

B. Situational Campaign Management Strategies:

Use the chart on voter trends in the last six elections to analyze the following situation

 Familiarize yourself with the KEY on the chart.

 Read the headings and titles along the axes of the chart.

 Consider the questions you have already answered, and the maps you have studied when crafting your strategy

1 What does the “D” and “d” mean? The “R” and “r”? Each means something different

2 Look at the far-left column What do the terms, “Strongly Republican/Democrat,” “Leaning

Republican/Democrat,” and “Truly Competitive” mean for each state?

3 Using the KEY, answer the following questions about elections from 1972 to 2000 Abbreviations are acceptable

a) List the states that have been predominately Republican over the last eight elections

b) List the states that have been predominately Democratic over the last eight elections

c) List the states that have been “competitive” or “toss-ups” over the last eight elections

d) Why would the states considered “leaning” be significant to a candidate who is campaigning for extra votes?

4 Consider the following Electoral College results from past elections.

a) Referring to the chart above: If you were a Democratic candidate running for President, where would you be more likely to campaign, Texas or Missouri? Why?

b) Referring to the chart above: If you were a Republican candidate running, where would you be more likely to go? In other words, how do you maximize your total number of popular votes? Why?

c) Which region of the country has the most electoral votes? The fewest? How do you think this influences the election?

5 Using the map below and the information on voting trends, make generalizations about regional trends

in the United States

a) According to the numbers, which regions tend to vote Democratic?

b) According to the numbers, which regions tend to vote Republican?

c) According to the numbers, which regions tend to be “toss-ups”?

d) If you were the incumbent President (a Republican), how would you use this information when

campaigning in 2004? Which regions would you try to focus on? Why?

e) If you were the challenging candidate for the Presidency (a Democrat), how would you use this

information in 2004? Which regions would you try to focus on? Why?

5 It is four weeks until the general election Your campaign committee has to plan a campaign blitz that will maximize your electoral votes in the election As a group, decide how your candidate will spend that four weeks in order to win the election Be prepared to share your strategy with the class

Candidate:

 Which states will your candidate visit? Why?

 Which states will your candidate avoid? Why?

 If your candidate is successful, how many electoral votes will this campaign blitz net for your candidate?

There are about eight different regions

in the U.S They are: Northeast, East, Southeast, South, Southwest, West, Northwest, Midwest and Central Geographical Regions of the U.S.

 Which of those states would have the highest priority? Why?

USE THE INTERACTIVE MAP TO DETERMINE VARIOUS OUTCOMES OF THE 2004

ELECTION….

1972-2000 Presidential Election State Voting Trends

How often has a state voted for the Democratic Candidate (1972-2000)?

How often has a state voted for the Republican Candidate (1972-2000)?

How often has a state voted for the winning Candidate (1972-2000)?

Key:

D State went Democrat, Democrats won Presidency

d State went Democrat, Republicans won Presidency

R State went Republican, Republicans won Presidency

r State went Republican, Democrats won Presidency

SORTED BY

State

(sort) Voted Dems

(sort)

Voted GOP

(sort) Voted for Winner

1972 NIXON

McGovern

1976 CARTER

Ford

1980 REAGAN

Carter

1984 REAGAN

Mondale

1988 BUSH

Dukakis

1992 CLINTON

Bush

1996 CLINTON

Dole

2000 BUSH

Gore Alabama

Strongly

Alaska

Strongly

Arizona

Moderately

Arkansas

Truely

California

Leaning

Colorado

Moderately

Connecticut

Leaning

Delaware

Leaning

District of

Columbia

Strongly

Democratic

Florida

Moderately

Georgia

Truely

Hawaii

Strongly

Strongly

Illinois

Leaning

Indiana

Strongly

Iowa

Leaning

Kansas

Strongly

Kentucky

Truely

Louisiana

Truely

Maine

Leaning

Maryland

Leaning

Massachusetts

Strongly

Michigan

Leaning

Minnesota

Strongly

Mississippi

Strongly

Missouri

Truely

Montana

Moderately

Nebraska

Strongly

Nevada

Moderately

New Hampshire

Moderately

New Jersey

Leaning