Vulnerability assessment to climate change for eba in van long wetland nature reserve , ninh binh province

In term ofvulnerability assessment, researcher developed approach to identify and analyze SESs for thepurpose of vulnerability assessment and identification of Ecosystem based Adaptation

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT

VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF FORESTRY

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STUDENT THESIS VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS TO CLIMATE CHANGE FOR ECOSYSTEM BASED ADAPTATION: CASE STUDY IN VAN LONG WETLAND NATURAL RESERVE, GIA VIEN DISTRICT, NINH

BINH PROVINCE Major: Natural Resources Management

Faculty: Forest Resources and Environmental Management

Student: Mai Phuong Thao Student ID: 145309881

Class: K59A Natural Resources Management Course: 2014 - 2018

Advanced Education Program Developed in collaboration with Colorado State University, USA

Supervisor: Nguyen Thi Thanh An

My sincere thanks also goes to many people for their contribution to this research; Mr.Mai VanQuyen- Manager in Van Long NR, Ninh Binh province; in Gia Vien district who provided memany useful knowledge about local knowledge about ecosystems, management system andcreate some great opportunities for me to meet and work with local people in Van Long NR Iwould especially like to thank local people in communes, they spent more time answering lots

of question related to climate change impacts and preparedness and help me to understandsituation and challenges they are facing

Finally, I would further like to thank my family, who always support and helped me in myresearch

Hanoi, 29 August 2017Mai Phuong Thao

CAM: A method of assessing the vulnerability to climate change based upon the factors ofExposure, Sensitivity and Adaptive capacity

EbA: Ecosystem-based approaches to adaptation (EbA) are defined by the Convention onBiological Diversity (CBD)1 as “the use of biodiversity and ecosystem services to help peopleadapt to the adverse effects of climate change, as part of an overall adaptation strategy” (CBDSecretariat, 2009)

Exposure: degree of climate stress upon a particular unit (of populations, resources, property,and so on); it may be represented as changes in climate conditions It is characterized byintensity, frequency, or the magnitude of climate of variation events or patterns

Sensitivity: degree to which a system will be affected by, positively or negatively, climatechange The consequence can be direct (such as changes in plant productivity due to changes

in temperature) or indirect (such as damages caused by increased flood frequency, which is aresult of sea level rise)

Ecosystem: A dynamic complex of plants or animals, and microorganism’s population andtheir non-living environment interacting as a functional unit Humans make an integral part ofthe ecosystem

Socio-ecological systems (SESs) Socio-ecological systems (referred also as environment systems, or human -nature systems) emphasize that human beings and the natureare interconnected, interactive in a continuous manner and mutually develop, thus, becomeintegral systems There is no single definition of SESs Systems theory differentiates varioustypes of systems, which include functional, structural and hierarchical systems with different

human-attributes such as being closed, open, static, dynamic, simple or complex SESs ischaracterized by dynamic complexity with multi-forms and multi-variables The specificattributes of a system depends on the selected definition (Hummel et al 2011) In term ofvulnerability assessment, researcher developed approach to identify and analyze SESs for thepurpose of vulnerability assessment and identification of Ecosystem based Adaptationsolutions, not recommending on how to recognize and identify Social-Ecological Systemseparately.

Adaptive Capacity: The ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climatevariability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or

to cope with the consequences

Adaptation: adjustment in natural or human systems in response to the current or expectedimpacts of climate change to mitigate climate change risks

Climate Change Adaptation (CCA): is the adjustment in the natural systems or in humanactivities in order to cope with the current or expected impacts of climate to mitigate climatechange risks in the future and to recognize and take advantages of the benefits from climatechange

Vulnerability: the extent that a system is vulnerable or unable to cope with the adverse impacts

of climate change, including climate change and extreme weather events (IPCC 2014)

Abbreviation

CCA Climate Change Adaptation

CAM Climate change adaptation and mitigation methodology

CBD Convention on Biodiversity

EbA Ecosystem-based Adaptation

ICEM International Centre for Environmental Management

IMHEN Institute for Meteorology, Hydrology, and Environment

MONRE Ministry of Natural resources and Environment

CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION

1.1 Introduction and problem statement

Climate change, include sea level rise and unpredictable extreme weather eventssuch as thunderstorms, storms, tropical low pressures will be the most serious challenge tolow and relatively flat areas, especially fresh wetland areas Wetland conservation toagainst climate change and maintaining the ecosystem services from it is crucial Wetlandshave high biodiversity and play an important role in economic and social developmentbecause it brings several ecosystem services such as: environmental protection and disasterprevention, the accumulation and limitation of environmental pollution, climate regulation,maintaining biodiversity and protecting the environment, balance of O2, atmospheric CO2,local climate regulation (rainfall, temperature, humidity) and reduce the greenhouse effect.Wetlands also make communities more resilient to the impacts of climate change Theyreduce the impacts from floods, droughts, and cyclones and provide buffers against sealevel rise and storm surges Wetlands conservation, sustainable use, and restoration cancontribute significantly as efficient and effective nature-based solutions for localcommunity to mitigate and adapt with climate change impacts This is idea of Ecosystem-based Adaptation: take advantage of ecosystem to mitigate or adapt with adverse effectsfrom climate change Ecosystem- based adaptation solutions have been applied in manyregions

Viet Nam is a natural disaster-prone country, which is particularly vulnerable to theeffects of climate change Growth population, urbanization, and rapid economicdevelopment impact issues have collided to threaten the country’s sustainabledevelopment Regarding wetland management, wetlands play a vital role in the lives of thelocal people and the socio-economic development of the country Wetland is very diverse

with an area of approximately 5,810,000 ha, accounting for about 8% of all wetlands inAsia, of which freshwater wetland accounts for about 10% of total wetlands AmongVietnam's wetlands, there are 68 wetland areas (341,833 ha) with biodiversity andenvironmental importance in many different forms (Ministry of Technology andEnvironment, 2001) However, available data and information about the location and status

of wetlands, as well as legal frameworks and management policies relating to wetlandshave been dispersed and incomplete The lack of a common framework for vulnerabilityassessment and measuring adaptive capacity has led to gaps in mainstreaming of potentialsolutions in policy and society to help social-economical system as well as ecosystem dealwith climate change due to shortage of information and approaches to implement ormonitor the contribution of ecosystems to adaptation

There is need for a common framework, methodology and indicators to be used forvulnerability and adaptive capacity assessment, which should include both socioeconomicand biophysical variables and measures of economic strengths, human capacities andenvironmental capabilities for wetland nature reserve Also, there are only few researchesand studies about vulnerability of inland wetland areas for effective responses to climatechange There is also need for vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning in aparticipatory manner And in term of proposing nature-based solutions response to climatechange adverse effects for Van Long NR in sustainable manners, I conducts the study:”

Vulnerability Assessments to climate change for Ecosystem based Adaptation: Case study in Van Long Wetland Natural Reserve, Gia Vien District, Ninh Binh Province”

1.2 Study site

Van Long is one of the largest North Vietnam inland wetland, is located in Gia Viendistrict, Ninh Binh province It is about 90 kilometers from Hanoi to the south and 20kilometers from Ninh Binh city to Van Long nature reserve Since 1960, more than 30 km

of a dike system was built on the left bank of the river that made 3,500 ha in Van Longbecame a wetland, allowing migratory birds feeding and promoting biodiversity In 1999, itbecame a nature reserve, listed as a wetland protected area and special-use forest inVietnam The isolated limestone mountains surround by watercourse "accidentally"became the salvation of many animals and plants escape from human destruction

Van Long NR is located on the administrative boundary of 7 communes of GiaVien district: Gia Hung, Lien Son, Gia Van, Gia Lap, Gia Tan and Gia Thanh In the north,

it adjacent to Hoa Binh province; southward is Cot lagoon; east side is Ha Nam provinceand the west is Xich Tho commune, Nho Quan district, Ninh Binh province Van Long hasbeen put into operation since 1998 and now it is an attractive tourist destination of Vietnamwith largest white-tailed langur population in Vietnam Van Long has the craggy and steepterrain with more than three-quarters of the nature reserve area is limestone ridge Thisridge has many peaks: Sum (233 m), Mao Ga (308 m), Ba Chon (428 m), Co Tien ( 116

m ), Meo Cao (206 m), Dong Quyen (328 m), May ( 138 m ), Luong (128 m) and Mieu( 72 m ), stretch from Northwest-Southeast

There are some vegetation types: natural-regenerated secondary forest onlimestone; formation class shrub and herbaceous vegetation in the dry valley; vegetation atslope and top of limestone; hygrophilous and aquatic plants Most of the land area iscovered by vegetation In addition, cultivation areas, villages in the region are also theprovide food and shelters for many groups of plants and animal Wetlands area strongly

affected by the hydrological regime of river systems: Day River, Dap River, Lang River,Boi River, and Hoang Long River The hydrological regime is also dependent on seasonalrainfall in the year During the growing season, aquatic plants often absorb all nutrients inthe photic zone, limit the biomass development of phytoplankton and lead to the foodshortage in the aphotic zone In contrast, during the dry season, vegetation degradationoften causes the anaerobic benthic zone, hinder the life of oxygenated and edible species.Thus, dominant animals in the lagoon are herbivorous, plant-based scraps consumers, mudswallowers, and low oxygen-tolerant species, such as crabs, snails, catfishes

CHAPTER 2 RESEARCH OBJECTIVES

2.1 Research goal

To analyze vulnerability of social ecological systems to climate change to climatechange to propose Ecosystem-based solutions for sustainable management in Van LongNature Wetland Reserve, Gia Vien dítrict, Ninh Binh province

2.2 Research objectives

– To define social-ecological systems (SESs) profile in Van Long Nature Reserve.– To assess potential impacts and vulnerability of social-ecological systems in Van

Long Nature Reserve to climate change

– To propose Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA) intervention(s) for Van Long NatureReserve

2.3 Research questions

- What is current state of SESs in Van Long NR?

- What is the vulnerable social ecological system in Van Long NR?

- Which recommendations should be considered to benefits both human andecosystems for both sustainable development and climate change adaptation?

CHAPTER 3 METHODOLOGY

3.1 Research framework

There are three main steps in this thesis, include data collection, data analysis tofind the result is vulnerability and give recommendations to reduce it Vulnerabilityassessment is the central idea of this thesis Vulnerability assessment provides the mostimportant output is the vulnerability level of defined systems Social ecological system isthe object this vulnerability assessment working on

The first step is data collection Two types of data are primary data and secondarydata is collected Sources and expected outcomes are detailed in section 3.2

Figure 1 Research framework

The second step is data analysis This thesis follows CAM process, which includes

5 tasks Identifying and analyzing SESs is just the first and second tasks, defining systems

for vulnerability assessment Three crucial variables in vulnerability assessment areexposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity Due to differences on system components andhuman management capabilities, sensitivity and adaptive capacity are selected and groupedbased on SESs Exposure uses both primary data for climate stress degree and secondarydata for future trend of climate Combination of exposure and sensitivity from primary data

is Potential Impacts

The third step is the result and recommendations Vulnerability is combination ofthe Potential Impact with adaptive capacity from primary data The aim of any climatechange adaptation solutions, include Ecosystem-based Adaptations, is to reduce thevulnerability of any systems to the risks of climate change

The first secondary data is governmental offices and researches and studies This isstatistical data about trend, challenges, and compositions of social, economic andecological features It also provides knowledge about the baseline of systems andprediction the shifts to systems which will occur irrespective of climate change

Governmental offices are district statistic office and Van Long NR office Researches andstudies have been used are: “Biodiversity in Van Long NR”, “Relationship between localpeople livelihoods and conservation activities in Van Long NR”, “Flora biodiversity in VanLong NR”, “Status and Recommendations for sustainable ecotourism development in VanLong, nature wetland reserve”, “Evaluating and assessing community participation in wildanimal conservation, Van Long NR, Ninh Binh province” To map social-ecologicalsystems, base maps, boundary maps, ecosystem maps from Van Long NR were collected.

The second secondary data called “Climate model” from the Institute forMeteorology, Hydrology, and Environment The future trend of climate parameters(include temperature, precipitation, and the number of extremely hot days) is calculatedfrom data called “Climate model’’ in form of GRID raster This Climate model is made byInstitute for Meteorology, Hydrology, and Environment (IMHEN) for both dry season(from December to May) and wet season (from July to November

Table 3.1 Detail about data collection and sources

Steps Characterizing SESs Mapping SESs Calculating

change in climatic parameters

Identifying:

Climate stresslevel

Identifying:

Sensitivity

Identifying:

Adaptive capacity

Statistic data from Governmental offices Researches and studies

Governmental offices

IMHEN, MONRE

25 local people

25 local people 25 local peopleVan Long NR

Management Office manager Leaders of 2 villages: Da Han and Vuon Thi

Van Long NR Management Office manager Leaders of

2 villages: Da Han and Vuon Thi

Required

information

PopulationLaborSocial compositionMain livelihood and livelihood shifts Environment qualityForest/ water quality status

Base mapEcosystems distribution mapBoundary map

Model and datarelated totemperature,precipitation andstorms (seeAppendix 7)

Duration, intensity,magnitude,frequency ofextremeevents

Past and potential damages

Supports from government Mechanism in implementing new solutions

local authorities knowledge Preparations and responses to damages Accessibility( information and resource)

Criteria for 5 levels of sensitivity

Output Past and existing

situation, trends and drivers of the SESs

SESs distribution Future trend of

climate

Climate stressdegree

Criteria for Sensitivity level Sensitivity level

Adaptive capacity of SESs

3.2.2 Primary data

The primary data is collected from local people and local authority The samplingtechnique chosen was snowball sampling Primary data collection method was used as thequalitative method, involves open-ended questions with informal conversation Theinterviews were carried out in person (face to face) with a total of 28 people (25 localpeople and managers) The study selected local people who live in study site for more than

30 years Due to the fact that most of people involve in ecotourism are women, themajority of interviewees were women The interviews were focused on three major themeswith 2 types of interviewees:

Table 3.2 General information about interviewees

Types of interviewees Local people

25 interviewees(14 women & 11 men)

Local authorities

3 managers (Van Long NRmanager, Da han and VuonThi village header)

Themes

Exposure Climate stress level

sensitivityAdaptive

capacity

Knowledge of local people Accessibility (information and resource)

Preparations and responses to damages

Knowledge of local authorities

Enable environment (Organization capacity)

Required information Duration, intensity, magnitude,

frequency of extreme events Past and potential damages Preparations and responses to damages

Accessibility (information andresource)

Supports from government, Mechanism in implementing new solutions

Criteria Lived in study site for more around 30

years

Direct participated inmanagement study site

Job/Responsibility Farmers, ecotourism worker (sailors),

participated households (farmer) inforest allocation program

Van Long NR ManagementOffice manager

required information was not available in any governmental offices In addition, data fromreports and projects of some organizations was not easily accessible by the public.Exposure level requires knowledge about climate stress degree, include magnitude,duration, intensity, and frequency of the extreme events, but it is not available Sensitivityand adaptive capacity of social-ecological systems are also a critical part for vulnerabilityassessment but they are not available, too So in order to capture sensitivity, adaptivecapacity, and climate stress degree in exposure level, researcher interview local people andlocal authorities.

3.3 Data analysis methods

This thesis follows CAM process The CAM process - Climate change adaptationand mitigation methodology- includes five primary tasks for adaptation planning.Vulnerability assessment is third tasks Ecosystem-based Adaptation is only an option inthe fourth task of the CAM process, defining a range of options In this thesis, researchercombines the first and second task as system profiles Vulnerability assessment is thirdtask, conducted for these systems And thesis stops at seventh mission, in the fourth task –select Ecosystem-based adaptation options

3.3.1 CAM process

The first task of CAM process is determining the systems which will be influenced,the geographic and sector need to be assessed In this thesis, ecological, social andeconomic factors need to be considered together, as parts of an integrated whole That isthe reason why “socio-ecological system” (SESs) - social-ecological systems have beenused as a unit for analyzing

The second task includes 2 goals, include: ‘describing the past and existingsituation, trends, and drivers of the selected systems’ is analyzing of past extreme eventsand trends of selected systems, requires a baseline assessment conducting and shiftspredicting to systems which will occur irrespective of climate change And ‘projecting

climate change threats’ is finding out the climate change threats, requires climate modelingand downscaling of future climate and hydrology against various scenarios

The third task is vulnerability assessment Impact and vulnerability assessmentinclude analysis of the projected climatic threats to the target systems The impactassessment combines the level of exposure to key system components and assets and theirrelative sensitivity to the threats The vulnerability is a measure which considers the impactand the capacity of the component or asset to adapt to it

The fourth task is developing a range of options for integrated adaptationinterventions With limited resources, it is not possible or necessary to do everything atonce so we need to identify priorities In this thesis, this response is Ecosystem-basedAdaptation, which brings co-benefit to both human and ecosystem

Source: CAM process, ICEM

Figure 2 ICEM CAM methodology

In the first and second task, it is essential to clearly define Social-EcologicalSystems, which are objects for vulnerability assessment and identification of Ecosystem-based Adaptation solutions Social-ecological systems are made up of 3 factors: keyecological, social and economic descriptors The results from this process are Social-ecological system profile and Social-Ecological Systems map, which establish anunderstanding of past and present status and trends in these systems

Vulnerability assessment is third task, which able to prioritize the vulnerable ecological system or components of these systems Vulnerability assessment aims toanalyze all variables of vulnerability, include exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity.The vulnerability assessment in the thesis based on the framework:

social-Exposure* Sensitivity = Potential impact (3.1) Potential impact / Adaptive capacity = Vulnerability (3.2)

In (3.1) function, level Impact is the combination of Exposure level withSensitivity, finalized Impact assessment matrix In function (3.2), impacts level from (3.1)together with Adaptive capacity, bases on Vulnerability assessment matrix, to find outVulnerability level

The final task is recommending potential Ecosystem-based Adaptation to enhancethe strengths and reduce weaknesses From identified the strengths and weaknesses exist inthese social-ecological systems, Ecosystem-based Adaptation what people should do tomanage it

Figure 3 Ecosystem-based Adaptation conceptual framework

3.3.2 Object, variables and tools in Vulnerability assessment

Generally, there are six components participate in vulnerability assessment includeobject, three variables and two tools Object is social-ecological system, three variables areexposure and sensitivity, adaptive capacity, two tools are impact matrix and vulnerabilitymatrix Vulnerability of SESs is the final outcome from vulnerability assessment This isdescription about these components

Secondary data from governmental offices and researches and studies are collected datarelated to 3 groups: the Ecological profile, Social profile and Economical profile (Social-economical profile) Categories should be the concern, include past and existing situation,trends and challenges This data, in fact, is baseline assessment conducting for social-ecological systems and predicting the shifts to systems which will occur irrespective ofclimate change

Mapping all of the SESs across the entire Van Long NR is a critical part of this process.SESs map can be used as a tool in conservation to prioritize the most appropriate and co-benefits solutions The ability to map landscape values makes it possible to display social-ecological hotspots -regions that contain significant social with ecological value SES

hotspot maps provide a visual tool for land planners and managers that enable thevisualization of human/landscape relationships The identification of SESs hotspots canhelp identify areas of high concern (e.g., conflicting landscape values), areas of intensesociocultural/biophysical processes (e.g., a highly valued area for recreation which isphysically fragile), or prospective conservation areas with high ecological value but lowsocial value All modeling tool outputs and socio-economic analysis can be linked directly

to GIS analysis making it the interpretive core of the integrated assessment andvisualization methodologies

SES map is visual tool to illustrate ecosystems distribution with local main livelihood(how can they benefit from ecosystem.) To map SESs in the study site, the researcherfollows the map processing procedure (standardizing the data, converting into the samereference frame, with shapefile (shp.) format) The satellite image is used to illustrate thestatus of ecosystems, of which social-ecological systems locate

3.3.2.2 Variables

There are 3 variables in vulnerability assessment, include adaptive capacity, sensitivity,and exposure It is impossible to combine all variables the at once, so exposure andsensitivity are combine together to find Potential Impact level before combine withAdaptive Capacity Potential Impact level is synthesized by Sensitivity and Exposure usingImpact matrix The vulnerability is synthesized Potential Impact level with Adaptivecapacity using Vulnerability matrix Sensitivity and adaptive capacity will be grouped bythe Social-Ecological system, lead to differences in Potential Impact level andVulnerability level of these Social-Ecological Systems

3.3.2.2.1 Exposure

Exposure is influenced by long-term changes in climate conditions, including themagnitude and frequency of extreme events with changes in climate variability There are

also 2 elements to consider in exposure The first is the degree of climate stress on thesystem, and second is the future trend of climate The future trend of climate requiresspecific knowledge, but climate stress degree is based on local knowledge

To find the exposure level, future trend of climatic variability need to be predicted.Climate, from definition, is the statistics of weather Calculating statistical figures fromclimate change scenario raster is required to forecast future trend of climatic variability.Future trend of climate parameters (include temperature, precipitation and number ofextreme hot days) is calculated from data called “Climate model’’ in form of GRID raster

It includes 2 types of GRID raster First one recorded from 1985 to 2005 is baseline,collected from all Vietnam weather stations and calculate by interpolation Other rastertype is forecasted change using IPCC model to make forecasted change in 2030, 2050 and

2100 to illustrate how these change happen (Figure 5,6,7,8 , Appendix 6 ) Zonal Statistic

as Table is a tool which was used to calculate statistical parameters about precipitation,number of extreme hot days and temperature After that, this table is exported into dBasetype Importing and converting dBase to Excel database (.xlsx or xls type) This thesisonly select mean precipitation, number of extreme hot days and mean temperature in bothforecasted and baseline raster for only Van Long NR Final result is collected into templatetable

Maximum

Temperature

(°C)

Mar – May Jun – Aug Sep – Nov Dec – Feb Number of

extreme hot Mar – MayJun – Aug

days - over

>35 °C (days) Sep – NovDec – Feb

The primary data about knowledge of local people about climate stress degree onSESs, includes: duration, frequency, scope and causes and magnitude of extreme events isnoted Result is collected into template table:

Extreme events Scope Duration Frequency Causes and Magnitude

3.3.2.2 Sensitivity

Sensitivity is the degree to which a threat will negatively affect the integrity oroperation of the asset It is simply how components of the system will be affected by, orresponsive to given exposure In this thesis, term sensitivity is used in the social-ecologicalsystem approach with impacts on different assets of different social-ecological systems sosensitivity is also different

The primary data about sensitivity from interview process is noted The result frominterviewing about negatively affects and the asset integrity or operation is grouped bySocial-ecological systems Due to the fact that differences in system components,sensitivity in different SESs varied That is reason why responsive degree and damages ofeach system is different among SESs is not the same, even they face the same level ofexposure

3.3.2.2.3 Adaptive capacity

Adaptive capacity in this thesis is adaptive capacity of socio-ecological systems - inwhich the natural ecosystems have been radically transformed “Natural capital” is ofcentral importance Natural capital is the goods and services provided by the naturalenvironment, which is made up by living systems And in terms of identifying Ecosystem-based Adaptation actions, peoples’ capacity to manage this natural capital and direct thechange, and the capacity and political will of governmental entities to deploy those

resources In this thesis, the adaptive capacity of inhabitants and Van Long NRmanagement board at the nature reserve level is considered Adaptive capacity of human ineach social-ecological system is different even with the same exposure due to differences

in knowledge, innovations, motivation, rights and management ability and experiences.The primary data about adaptive capacity from interview process is noted and grouped

by SESs, too Human in each ecological system react differently even with the climatechange or any disturbances They also have different knowledge about and experiencesabout climate change impacts To capture the most relevant human reactions in differentsocial-ecological systems, only the most relevant and important features are selected.Detail about 4 factors of adaptive capacity is analyzed in Appendix 10

3.3.2.3.1 Impact matrix

Impact is combination of exposure level of SESs with their sensitivity Impact matrix is

a guide to finalize potential impact of a threat on an asset given the assessed levels ofexposure and sensitivity In this matrix, Impact level ranges from Very low to Very Highlevel, set up from science-based information and supplemented through expert judgment indeciding on the level of exposure and level of sensitivity

The first column is Sensitivity level In this thesis, experts who set up criteria forsensitivity are Van Long NR manager and village leaders Sensitivity level is divided 5levels from Very Low to Very High, based on local authorities interview (leaders of

hamlets and Van Long NR manager) (vertical, first row, Table 3.1) In general, theysuppose that some extreme events may beneficial and it is ranked at Very low level Forexample, sometimes storms create suitable conditions for forest development and seeddispersal Another example is dry area like Da Han hamlet, some irregular rainfall maybring water source for crops In contrast, Very high level is given when deaths occur, forexample, extreme cold spells or flood killed cattle and totally swept away crops Otherlevel depend magnitude of impacts.

The first row is exposure level In this thesis, based on geographical scale of study site,Exposure level is divided into 5 levels, from Very Low to Very High (horizontal, firstcolumn, Table 3.1) Exposure level includes climate stress degree and changes in futureclimatic parameters Climate stress degree has 4 factors: duration, frequency, magnitude,intensity of extreme events Change in future climatic parameters includes change inprecipitation, change in temperature and change in duration of extreme events

Level of Potential Impact is identified by intersected cell of Sensitivity and Exposure,represented by row and column For example, a system which has High exposure level (orsuffer more) and High sensitivity level (easier to be damaged) gets High impacts level.Simply, a system has Medium impact level when it faces Low exposure but has Highsensitivity level

Table 3.3 Impact matrix

Source: Refer from CAM process, ICEM,2011

3.3.2.3.2 Vulnerability matrix

From the definition, a vulnerable system is “system that is sensitive to changes andextremes in climate and hydrology and one for which the ability to adapt is constrained”.The vulnerability is the combination of Potential Impacts level with adaptive capacity InCAM methodology, vulnerability matrix provides the key for combining the potentialimpact with the adaptive capacity to define vulnerability Vulnerability also ranges fromVery low to Very High level

In this matrix, the potential impact level is the first row in the vulnerability matrix(horizontal, first row, Table 3.2) Impacts from climate change, like other disturbances, candisrupt or damage social-ecological systems functions and property and take days, weeks,months, years for these system absorbs disturbances, re-organize themselves to recover Atthe highest level, disturbances kill living things, causes deaths, loss critical component ofthat social-ecological system, include human, shift regime of systems or change these

social-ecological systems to a new system Potential Impacts are divided into 5 levels,from Very High to Very Low In case that impact lasts in only a few days, leavesinconvenience for social-ecological systems in the study site, it is classified at Very Lowlevel Level of disruption to social-ecological systems defines whether it is Low orMedium level High impact level occurs when consequences last long (years) and damagecomponents and functions of social-ecological systems The highest level occurs whensystems, in this thesis, is social-ecological systems, shift to another

The adaptive capacity level is the first column in the vulnerability matrix In this thesis,adaptive capacity is human capability There are also 5 levels of adaptive capacity Thelevel of adaptive capacity is evaluated by 4 factors: The ability to access and controllivelihood activities and resources, Knowledge, Innovation, Enabling environment.Vulnerability level also ranges from Very High to Very Low level Very Low level or Verylimited institutional capacity, no technical and financial support means no solutionavailable, people and management institutions do not have any experiences, knowledgeand preparations for unexpected situations, like extreme events Low level is limitedinstitutional capacity and limited access to the technical and financial resource, people find

it hard or cannot access to local resources, information access is limited to prepare andrecover from damages, but they have some experiences and traditional solutions to dealwith this problems At higher level, Medium level, people know about climate change,forecast information, they are able to use local resources to prepare for the unexpectedsituation caused by climate change but supports from the government is limited In Highlevel of adaptive capacity, people actively prepare for climate change in long-term andeasy access to local resources to prepare and recover from damages; they also receivesupport to reduce the risks Adaptive capacity is Very High when people using high

technology to prepare in long-term and deal with extremes events They receive bothfinancial and technical support to do that

Level of Potential Vulnerability is identified by intersected cell of Potential Impactwith Adaptive Capacity, represented by column and row For example, a system which hasHigh impact level (from Impact matrix) and Very low Adaptive Capacity (limitedinstitutional capacity, knowledge, experiences and access to technical and financialresources) gets Very High vulnerability level Or a system has Medium vulnerability levelwhen it has Low Adaptive Capacity (limited institutional capacity, knowledge and access

to technical and financial resources but have experiences to deal with) but faces Lowimpact

Table 3.4 Vulnerability matrix

Source: CAM methodology, ICEM, 2011

CHAPTER 4 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

4.1 Defining social-ecological systems profile in Van Long NR

Research applied the approach to identify and analyze SES based on ecological profile,economical profile and social profile SESs defining is the first steps to know that whichsystems the thesis working on Purpose of this thesis is vulnerability assessment andidentification of Ecosystem-based Adaptation solutions for Social-Ecological Systems, notrecommending on how to recognize and identify Social-Ecological Systems separately, soonly significant features are captured

4.1.1 Ecological profile

Ecological profile focuses on the ecosystems in Van Long NR, detailing which types ofecosystem are present, how many there is of them, and what condition are they in It alsoidentifies importance of these ecosystems and threats to ecosystems

4.1.1.1 Main ecosystems

The total area of Van Long NR is 2733 hectares with high biodiversity ecosystems Thereare 4 main ecosystems in Van Long NR: wetland ecosystems, plantation forest ecosystem,limestone forest ecosystems and agro-ecosystem

Secondary forest is the main ecosystem in Van Long NR After clear cut from last decade,Van Long primary forest is no longer available, so there is only secondary limestone forestwith low canopy cover and grassland after cultivation Most of plant is light demandingspecies, well adapt to extensive light conditions and drought tolerant Due to low regenerationrate, some areas plant high economic value and short rotation eucalyptus and acacia toincrease forest cover Available land for cultivation is limited and seasonal change Swamp ishabitat of hundreds aquatic species and do not have any significant change Detail about

ecosystem composition, conditions, extent and status, and trend is summarized in Table 0.1,Appendix 4

Limestone forest is high biodiversity ecosystems and very important ecosystem because itprovides habitat and food for endemic species and migratory birds nesting Flora and fauna inVan Long natural reserve has very specific characteristics of Red River delta limestone karstand wetland ecosystems Van long is/used to be habitat for many species of plants and animalslisted in the Vietnam Red Book such as bear, leopard Van Long NR is also home ofTrachypithecus delacouri, an endemic primate in Vietnam with more than 40 white-tailedlangurs Especially it is the habitat of a rare insect that requires extreme fresh waterenvironment, which is considered extinct, Lethocerus indicus (cà cuống chân bơi) In the dryseason, Van Long is the wintering place of migratory birds from the North There has dozens

of pheasants, grey heron, teal and hundreds of white stork, night herons

In addition, limestone forest ecosystem also brings various benefits to human There are

722 species belong to 454 genera,158 families and 542 species bring provisioning services andmore than 30% of fauna in Van Long can be extracted to medicine, 147 species provide food( Hoang Van Sam, 2013) Other products can be collected are ornamental trees, essential oil,fiber and starch Van Long NR has great contribution in climate regulation Limestonemountains range and watercourse keep temperature in Van Long lower than surroundingregions Flood prevention also is also one of regulating services from Van Long NR Van Longwetland area controls the floods in the other side and downstream zones, while reducing therisks to dike system Wetland area also brings benefits to aquaculture, water for irrigation anddomestic purposes Moreover, Van Long NR provides aesthetic value for ecotourism

4.1.1.2 Threats

It is noteworthy that the Van Long NR is currently facing new threats Firstly, an industrialpark along 1A National Highway from the distance about four to five kilometers Secondly, acement plant with a capacity of 2.7 million tons per year, which was not previously planned inthe industrial zone, is rapidly expanding near the southeast of the nature reserve will disturbthe environment as well as natural habitat Up to now, official reports on the potentialenvironmental impact of these industrial activities are not conducted Thirdly, provincial road,which connects Ninh Binh and Hoa Binh province, crossing nature reserve causes habitatfragmentation, noises and prevent endanger species move across the habitats

Fourth threat comes from ecotourism development and behavior of tourists Nguyen VanLinh (2016) figures out that there is a close relationship between number of tourists andgarbage Number of visitors increases contemporary with disposal garbage in nature reserve.Finally, there are many zone are at risk due to sewage water At some polluted or contaminatedsites, the pollution is caused mainly by organic substances, especially in residential area TheBOD is higher than 25 mg / L compared to the Vietnam standard (TCVN 5492/1995) only atthe dyke base and the main road from Gia Hoa to Gia Thanh (Vu Trung Tang, 2005).Pollution source also comes from Day river, because Van Long NR locate in downstreamregion

4.1.2 Social profile

In Van Long NR, most of local people are Kinh (98%) There are only 2% are Muongpeople Most of manual workers are farmers These agricultural workers are not trained.Farmers and rely on their experience as well as traditional farming practices, education

background, experience, aptitude, and strength is quiet homogenous They take part in bothmanual works and services Detail about social characteristic in Table 0.2 Appendix 5

4.1.3 Economical profile

Economic profile describes main livelihood of the local people in Van Long NR, which

is official recorded in statistical data, include contribution to local economic and developmentdirection In this thesis, economical profile is important in defining Social-Ecological Systemsdue to homogeneity of social aspect Detail about economical characteristic in Table 0.3Appendix 6

4.1.3.1 Main livelihood

There are 4 main type of livelihood in Van Long NR, they are farming, livelihood fromanimal husbandry, forest-based livelihood and ecotourism Firstly, farming is main traditionallivelihood, distributed unevenly among communes Secondly, livestock contributes animportant role in household economy Third is forest-based livelihood, with two activities areforest management and forest protection Forth is ecotourism, an alternatives livelihoods inVan Long NR, which recently appear Forest-based livelihood and ecotourism are newlivelihoods with minor contribution to local economic

4.1.3.2.Dynamic of livelihood in the area

Ecotourism is a response for Van Long NR establishment Van Long NR is an incomesource for local people through ecotourism Conservation activities in Van Long NR haveprofound impacts on the livelihoods of local people: grazing; timber harvesting, firewoodcollecting; fishing; cultivating on forest land; limestone exploiting; non timber forestproduction collecting are strictly prohibited Before the Nature Reserve establishment, thereare no institutional agencies that monitor and manage non-timber forest products exploitation,

timber harvesting, wild animals hunting, firewood collecting, timber for construction, fishery,especially logging activities Grazing is also serious problem The main source of income isagriculture, trade and services have not been paid much attention However, this is notsufficient for their life After the establishment of the Nature Reserve, all activities affectingthe reserve have been reduced Local people moved away from traditional livelihoods Someactivities: ornamental trees collecting, stone carvings, limestone exploitation, wild animalshunting, charcoal and firewood no longer is their livelihoods Some sectors have droppeddramatically: livestock (8.3%), aqua-farming (10%) and firewood collection (6.7%).

Nguyen Van Linh (2016) figures out that 100% of travel agencies and 96.08% of localinterviewees agree that ecotourism make differences of livelihoods and awareness in VanLong However, the benefits from tourism activities are not high, so there should be solutions

to change the mechanism of benefit sharing, economic solutions to attract the travel agenciesand develop tourism in sustainable way To balance the benefits from nature reserve and theimportance of conservation, each activity should receive appropriate management andinvestments as well as solutions to support the sustainable development by diversifying localpeople livelihoods

4.1.4 SESs Profile

The Social ecological system profile is synthesized from Social profile, Economicalprofile and Ecological profile SESs profile is also considered as the baseline assessment in theCAM methodology, establishes an understanding of past and present status and trends in theseSocial-Ecological systems

4.1.4.1 Identifying SESs

Three sets of components - ecological, social and economic - and their relevantconstituent variables in Van Long NR is identified, building on the information fromecological profile, social profile and economical profile

Table 4.1 Social-ecological systems in Van Long NR

Cultivation Livelihood from

husbandry

Forest-basedlivelihood

Ecotourism

Ecological Seasonal wetland,

low land area

Whole naturereserve

Limestone forests,plantation forests

poultry

ecosystem services,Forest allocationprogram

Ecotourismservices

Trends Plant more fruit

trees DevelopingDiversifying in

cattle Free-grazingcattle

Forest cover isincreasing

Result in Appendix 7, Social-ecological systems in Van Long NR map

4.2 Assessing potential impacts and vulnerability of SESs in Van Long NR

to climate change

There are three variables need to consider in vulnerability assessment, includeexposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity It is impossible to combine them at the same time.That is the reason why exposure and sensitivity are combined together to figure out potentialimpact level before combine with adaptive capacity to find the vulnerability level (refer to3.2.1 CAM process) While exposure is similar among Social-ecological systems, theSensitivity and Adaptive Capacity is different between them This is detail about these threevariables is analyzed

4.2.1 Exposure

Exposure includes climate stress degree and future trend of climate Climate stressdegree is collected from local knowledge by interviewing The future trend of climate iscalculated from “Climate model” Exposure level is analyzed by these components

4.2.1.1 Climate stress degree to the SESs

Generally, there are 4 types of extreme events that stress on SESs in Van Long NR.They are flood, storms, extreme cold and drought Result is summarized in Table 4.2

Table 4.2 Climate stress degree

Extreme events Scope Duration Frequency Causes and magnitude

wetland areaLowland area

7-10 days Annually and

continuously prolonged

The rainfall is high, with some heavy and prolongedrains

Consequences of storms/tropical depressionStorms, tropical

depressions Whole nature reserve 4-5h 4-5 times/year1 directed storm

every 10 years

Sudden storms and Tropical depressionsFar from the seaExtreme/damaging

cold:

Low temperature

Whole nature reserve

7-10 days 2-3 spells/ year Northeast wind Lasting

Sources: local people interview

Floods and rains

Flood is always the highest risk threatening the livelihoods It rains heavily and forlong time during the rainy season (heavy rains during February - October of the lunar months)with very long flooding duration Flood prolonged for days in July or October of the lunaryear

Storms and tropical depressions

In general, direct storms and tropical depressions do not happen every year, or onlyconsequences of them occur in September and October of the lunar year There were damagingstorms in 1967 and 1985

Heat wave and drought

Drought is also threatens the livelihoods of some hamlets in Van Long NR, forexample, Da Han hamlet From February to May (at the end of the spring and early summer),

it is low rainfall, low air humidity, temperature rise and higher evaporation Even the droughtduration is short, impacts from drought are still significant

Chilly cold weather

Van Long NR and Ninh Binh province are also influenced by the northeast monsoonwith cold and dry air from December to February next year There were damaging cold snaps

in 1975, 1988 and 2016

4.2.1.2 Future trend of climate

Result of future trend of climate in data analysis, calculation from climate model aresummarized in Table 4.3, include number of extreme hot days, the average maximumtemperature and precipitation in Van Long wetland is expected to change:

Table 4.3 Future trend of climate Climatic

parameters

Season Baseli

ne

In 2030

Change

in 2030

In 2050

Change

in 2050

In 2100

Maximum

Temperature

(°C)

Mar – May 30.35 31.14 0.79 31.79 1.44 33.11 2.76Jun – Aug 34.81 35.45 0.64 35.98 1.17 37.04 2.23Sep – Nov 26.50 27.24 0.74 27.85 1.35 29.08 2.57Dec – Feb 20.33 21.08 0.75 21.68 1.35 22.93 2.60

Source: Calculation from Climate model, Institute of Meteorological and Hydrological

Environment, MONRE, 2012From the table 4.3, both dry days and number of hot days over 35°C will increase inthe future (2030, 2050 and 2100) These indicators, combined with changes in precipitationand temperature, show the flood risks will grow in the wet season with more frequent, longerand fiercer floods more heat waves ad droughts

Average total precipitation

In the future, CC scenario figure out that although the average total precipitation in VanLong wetland increases, by 29.661% (4.75% in 2030, 8.54% in 2050 and 16.37% in 2100), theincrease of rainfall in early rainy season (Jun – August, increased by 11.93% in 2100) anddecrease in the dry season (March to May, rainfall decreased by 2.71% in 2100) inconsideration to seasons

Average maximum temperature

The average maximum temperature in Van Long NR will increase (0.79°C in 2030;1.44°C in 2050 and 2.76 °C in 2100) Under climate change scenarios, temperatures increase

in all four seasons Rising temperatures combines with the reduced rainfall during the dryseason

Under climate change scenarios, the number of cold days tends to go down However,the cold snaps will occur more unpredictable, more erratic, as well as irregular and sometimesthe temperature drops and lasts longer

Number of extreme hot days - over >35 °C

Regarding number of extreme hot days - over >35 °C (days), the number of extremehot days - over >35°C (days) in Van Long NR will increase (0.79 days in 2030; 1.44 days in

2050 and 2.76 days in 2100)

4.2.1.3 Exposure level

From climate stress degree (4.2.1.1) and future trend of climate (4.2.1 2), exposurelevel is evaluated and summarized in last column of Table 4.4, based on criteria in Impactmatrix (3.2.2.4.1)

Table 4.4 Exposure level

levelIncrease in rainfall in the rainy season

Increase of rainfall in early rainy

season (Jun – August, increased by

11.93% in 2100)

The rainfall is high, with some heavyand prolonged rains

Consequences of storms/tropicaldepression

Along the waterways and wetland area7-10 days

Very high

Decrease in rainfall in the dry season

Decrease in the dry season (March to

May, rainfall decreased by 2.71% in

2100)

Higher temperature (an increase by

0.79°C in 2030; 1.44°C in 2050 and

2.76 °C in 2100)

Higher temperature in hot season

More hot days of >35°C

More hot days of > 35°C increases:

CC scenarios (IMHEN, MONRE) Exposure Exposure

level4-5h

Usually combine with heavy rain

Low temperature, Winter cold spells

In most cases, winter will get warmer,

but there will also be damaging cold

spells

Low temperatureNortheast wind Due to influences of limestone, lowtemperature tends to last longer

7-10 days2-3 spells/year

Medium

4.2.2 Potential impact assessment

In this research, term “impacts” is defined as effects on natural - human systems,primarily used to refer to the effects of extreme weather and climate events on both naturaland human The Impact requires exposure level to climate change and the sensitivity of thesocial-ecological systems Potential impact function (3.1) consists of exposure with sensitivity.Exposure was analyzed in section 4.2.1.3 The other is sensitivity, degree to which a system isaffected – either adversely or beneficially – by climate change or variability

4.2.2.1 Sensitivity of SESs

Sensitivity is collected from local knowledge about how threats will negatively affectthe integrity or operation of the assets It is simply that how the extreme events influence onproduction activities and life Sensitivity is classified by SESs types Table 4.5 is sensitivity ofeach social-ecological system with future trend of climate from climate change scenario fromlocal people interview Based on criteria of sensitivity collected from local authority, whichwas mentioned in Impact matrix, sensitivity level is evaluated This sensitivity level iscombined with Exposure level from Table 4.4, section 4.2.1.3 to finalize the Potential Impactlevel

Table 4.5 Sensitivity level of SES in Van Long NR

CC scenarios (IMHEN,

Increase in rainfall in the

- Soil erosion and degradation

- Waterlogging and plants death

- High risk of decreased production output or complete loss due to flood

Veryhigh

Livelihood from husbandry:

- Livestock and poultry are less sensitive to the increase in rainfall

- Affect to the cattle food source

Decrease in the dry season

(March to May, rainfall

More hot days of >35°C

More hot days of > 35°C

Veryhigh

Livelihood from husbandry:

- Livestock and poultry are sensitive to an increase

in temperature

- Increase in parasites

- Water shortage

Veryhigh

Livelihood from husbandry

- Food for livestock damages

- Livestock shelter damages

- Swept away cattle

VeryhighForest-based livelihood:

- Forest and non – timber forest products are not very Very low

CC scenarios (IMHEN,

sensitive to the change in rainfall, which sometimes creates favorable conditions for them to growLivelihood from ecotourism on wetland

In most cases, winter will

get warmer, but there will

also be damaging cold

spells

Cultivation:

- Maize, cassava: died by colds, had to re-germinate

- Custard apple is cold resilient species

High

Livelihood from husbandry:

- Livestock and poultry is sensitive to very cold weather

- Goat is cold resilient species

- Cattle, poultry grow slowly

- New cattle disease and disease in cattle, poultry

High

Forest-based livelihood:

Ecotourism:

Sources: local people interview

4.2.2.2 Potential Impact level

Potential impact is function (3.1) of exposure level from Exposure with Sensitivity Potential Impact levels from climate change to each social ecological system with differentclimatic threats are synthesized on the Table 4.6 Table 4.6 contains Table 4.5 and Table 4.4.The last column is Potential Impact level, using Impact matrix

Table 4.6 Impact level of climate change on SESs in Van Long NR

Consequences

of storms/tropicaldepressionAlong the waterways andwetland area7-10 days

VH Cultivation:

- Soil erosion and degradation

- Waterlogging and plants death

- H risk of decreased production output or complete loss due to flood

V

H

VH

Livelihood from husbandry:

- Livestock and poultry are less sensitive to the increase in rainfall

- Affect to the cattle food source

of Van Long NR

3-6 weeks Once every 3 years

M Cultivation:

- Reduce the crop yield, sL growth and death of paddy rice, maize and vegetables due to extended hot days, particularly when temperature increase occur at the same time with droughts

V

Livelihood from husbandry:

- Livestock and poultry are sensitive

to an increase in temperature

- Increase in parasites

- Water shortage

VHH