VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF ECOSYSTEM TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN XUAN THUY NATIONAL PARK

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENTVIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF FORESTRY ---o0o---STUDENT SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH REPORT VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF ECOSYSTEM TO CLIMATE CHANGE

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT

VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF FORESTRY

-o0o -STUDENT SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH REPORT

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF ECOSYSTEM TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN XUAN THUY NATIONAL PARK

Hanoi, April

Supervisor: Assoc.Prof Tran Quang Bao

Student: Mai Phuong Thao

Nguyen Lan HuongClass: 59 Natural Resource ManagementMajor: Natural Resource ManagementFaculty: Forest Resource and Environmental Management

LIST OF TABLES ii

LIST OF FIGURES iii

PREFACE 1

Chapter 1: INTRODUCTION 2

1.1 The urgency of the problem 2

1.2 Research goal 3

1.3 Research objects 3

1.4 Scope and boundary 3

Chapter 2: LITERATURE REVIEW 4

2.1 The concepts 4

2.2 In the world 5

2.3 In Vietnam 5

4 Studies on the impact of climate change 8

Chapter 3: CONTENT AND METHODS 10

3.1 Research content 10

3.2 Research methods 13

Chapter 4: XUAN THUY CHARACTERISTICS 21

4.1 Natural conditions 22

4.2 Economic conditions, social 26

Chapter 5: RESEARCH RESULTS 28

5.1 Baseline and exposure 28

5.2 Sensitivity 39

5.3 Impact identifying 45

5.4 Adaptive capacity 1

5.5 Vulnerability 11

Chapter 6: RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ADAPTATION RESPONSES 1

6.1 Non-structured recommendations 1

6.2 Structured recommendations 2

Chapter 7: CONCLUSIONS 3

REFERENCES 5

LIST OF TABLES Table 1: The sub-indices of the main index in World Bank vulnerability assessment to climate change for Vietnam aquaculture sector 6

Table 2: Exposure factors 10

Table 3: Sensitivity factors 11

Table 4: Impacts matrix 17

Table 5: The vulnerability matrix 19

Table 7: Monitoring changes in number individuals of 7 indicator migratory species within 3 periods of time 40

Table 8: Climate changes impact on selected plant indicators species in Xuan Thuy National Park 42

Get the Exposure and sensitivity result and find in Exposure column and Sensitivity row The intersection cell is the Impact level For example: 45

Table 11: Comparing Forest management efficiency (forest area change) 2

Table 12: Results of the survey on community participation in mangrove protection and development 3

Table 16: Coastal adaptive technology 3

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1: Social Determinants of Adaptive Capacity chart 12

Figure 2: CAM methodology steps 14

Figure 3: Vulnerability assessment 15

Figure 4: Location of Xuan Thuy National Park 21

Figure 5: Baseline and change in precipitation in wet season in 2050 (Jun-Nov) 31

Figure 6: Baseline and change in precipitation n a dry season in 2050 (Dec – May) 32

Figure 7: Baseline and change in average daily maximum temperature in a dry season in 2050 (December – May) 34

Figure 8: Baseline and change in average daily maximum temperature in wet season in 2050 (Jun – Nov) 36

Figure 9: Baseline and change in average daily maximum temperature in wet season (Jun – Nov) map 38

Figure 10: National Park Administration 7

Thanks to the agreement of Vietnam National University of Forestry, Forest

Resources, and Environment Management, we conduct scientific research: “Assess the vulnerability of the mangrove ecosystem to climate changes impacts in Xuan Thuy National Park”

On the occasion of completing our study, I would like to say thank you to theadministrators of the Vietnam National University of Forestry, all the teacher work inForest Resources and Environment Management and Forest Resources andEnvironment Center give us a lot of help to complete the research Especially, we takethis chance to express our profound gratitude towards our supervisor, especiallyAssoc.Prof Tran Quang Bao, who is our adviser for supporting us during all the time

of conducting the research

Last but not least, we would like to thank our family and friends for theirunconditional support and guidance towards the completion

Chapter 1: INTRODUCTION 1.1 The urgency of the problem

Climate changes globally some common terms most prominent in the mediatoday Their phenomenon occurrences are different among regions, but we can pointout some general characteristics: increase in temperatures, excessive rainfall in therainy seasons, precipitation reduction in the dry seasons, frequent occurrence andserious level rise in drought and flood, the complex activation of hurricanes, El Niñohappens often with turbid fluctuations

Global climate change is one of the greatest challenges that human face in the 21st century It is threatening to the entire ecosystem on Earth Vietnam is severely affected by climate change Climate change influences on natural system, including human also influence on every artificial systems Ecosystem is one of the most

vulnerable elements in natural system, especially mangrove ecosystem

Xuan Thuy National Park is the first Ramsar site in Southeast Asia, inside the

Red river biosphere reserves Like other mangrove forests, Xuan Thuy National Parkmangrove forest is affected by climate change It is easy to see the effects of climatechange in this region: losing ecological diversity and disrupting balance internally;fauna species disappear quickly Forest structure is damaged and the regenerationability of mangrove is very low

Recognizing the importance of protecting and developing the diversity ofecosystems in Xuan Thuy National Park in in the era of climate change, we carried outresearch on: "The vulnerability assessment of Xuan Thuy national park climate change

on mangrove forest in Xuan Thuy National Park"

KEY WORD: Climate change, CAM method, qualitative, Xuan Thuy National

Park

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Research object is ecosystem in Xuan Thuy, Nam Dinh Province

1.4 Scope and boundary

1.4.1Scope

Focusing on assessing Exposure level, Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity based

on Climatic changes, Biological respond to climate change and 4 factors in Adaptivecapacity: Social factor, Technology, Institutional management and Naturalcharacteristic of ecosystem Xuan Thuy National Park ecosystem, Nam Dinh Province

1.4.2 Boundary

This research focuses on assessing the impact of climate change and vulnerability

of ecosystem in Xuan Thuy, Nam Dinh Province

Chapter 2: LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 The concepts

Weather

the state of the atmosphere at a time at a given place is determined

by a combination of factors: temperature, pressure, humidity,wind speed, rain, etc

Climate

the long-term weather, characterized by statistical values (mean,probability extremes, etc.) of the meteorological elementsvariation in a geographic area The average period of climatetypically takes place in a few decades

Climate

Change (CC)

the change of climatic conditions than average and/or climaticfluctuations maintained for a long period of time, usually severaldecades or longer Climate change is caused by human activitiesaltering the composition of the atmosphere or in land useexploitation

Mangrove a term describing an ecosystem in tropical and subtropical forms

of plant-based complex tidal areas with characteristic fauna

Vulnerability

(IPCC -2007)

the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to copewith, adverse effects of climate change, including climatevariability and extremes The vulnerability is a function of thecharacter, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which asystem is exposed Also, its sensitivity and its adaptive capacity

Response Human activities to adapt and mitigate climate change

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2.2 In the world

There are 2 main approaches:

Impact-based Approaches - approach by impacts related to potential problemsimpacts assessment of climate change to the system components in different scenarios.Vulnerability-based Approaches – approach by assessing social-ecologicalsensitivity, adaptability

"Modeling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand" organizationhave applied "impact-based" approach for Victoria's Western Harbor and applied the

"vulnerability-based" approach for Sydney Harbor The results show that bothapproaches provide useful information and can be used internationally However, for avulnerability approach that allows for a variety of sources of information, includingadaptive capacity index, the index is easy to quantify even when the relationshipsbetween the variables are different and not define apparently The most difficult are thetransformation and quantification for variables in vulnerability assessment (egcomparison of vulnerability to sea level rise, cost-benefit analysis in the managementarea), the vulnerability-base approach is just semi-quantitative In contrast, impact-based approaches have the potential to provide very accurate quantified information.However, the advantage of the vulnerability assessment approach is that it clearlydelineates the complexity of the complexity of the E, S, and AC factors, thusidentifying barriers with the ability to adapt (this is very useful for managers andpolicymakers)

2.3 In Vietnam

In Vietnam, IUCN and WWF have carried out a report with chẹck-lists to assess the climate change vulnerability However, these checklists do not depict priorities and the magnitude of problem

The World Bank project focuses on assessing vulnerability to climate change forthe aquaculture sector in Vietnam In the conceptual model, vulnerability index is based

on four factors (Allison model):

 Exposure (E)

 Sensitivity (S)

 Potential impacts (PI)

 Adaptability capacity (AC)

The main index is formed and calculated from sub-indices

Table 1: The sub-indices of the main index in World Bank vulnerability assessment to

climate change for Vietnam aquaculture sector

NO

1 Sea level rise (aquaculture households/Direct Livelihoods

total households)

Poverty (including two indices: Percentage of peoplebelow the poverty line and thepercentage of monthlyexpenditure for aquaculture)

sub-2 Change in averagetemperature Direct labor (aquaculturelabor /total labors)

Infrastructure (percentagetelephones/100 people and thenumber of beds in hospital/100

people

precipitation

Macro-economic (thepercentage ofaquaculturerevenue/GDP (shareaquaculture GDP)

Education (% high schoolstudents graduated)

4 Extreme event

Food security-theaverage aquacultureconsumption/capita(aquaculture income)

Social Capital

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5 The magnitude andfrequency of

extreme events

Education (% fishing men

trained)

Normalization of indicators and synthesis.

All of the variables in vulnerability indices are normalized to a range of 0 to 100.The values of each variable are normalized to the range of values in the data set byapplying the following general formula:

The score is from 0 - 100 The value 100 will correspond to that region with themaximum value (greatest impact) and 0 will correspond to the region with theminimum value (the smallest impact)

The vulnerability index is calculated from the equation as follows:

In research, researchers group has been concluded that many of the variables

cannot be quantified The concept of sensitivity, the adaptive capacity index is nothomogenous The difference in collected data is, also a drawback of the research

4 Studies on the impact of climate change

There are many researchs had chosen Xuan Thuy National Park for studying Butmost of the researches use the statistical data, modeling and identify the areas can beflooded due to sea-level rising in Xuan Thuy National Park using scenario Thesemethods bring the high accuracy quantitative figures in short-term However, in long-term, without considering adaptive capacity and other factors may lead to incorrectmodels

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Where:

V: Vulnerability E: Exposure S: Sensitivity AC: Adaptive capacity

Some researchers had introduced sea level rising as an exposure factor and usedmatrix for the ecosystem-base approach; PRA method (Participatory Rural Appraisal)

as tools for recording past extreme event and baseline building But they just focus onsea level rising, modeling method for other factors This method may not suitable forthe inland area because the impact of sea level rising between them is different due tothe difference in exposure In addition, they have not set up the priorities, because insome cases, availability of financial and human resources to finish all tasks at once isnot allowed people to mitigate and adapt to sudden events Also, some scientific termsand results may cause difficulties for developing planners and decision- makers toprepare for extreme events  

Chapter 3: CONTENT AND METHODS 3.1 Research content

The concept of vulnerability of IPCC (2007): “The degree to which a system issusceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, includingclimate variability and extremes The vulnerability is a function of the character,

magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed; its sensitivity and its adaptive capacity”.

From this definition, there are 2 main concerns: system 3 types of factors involve

in vulnerability-assessment process:

First concern is system definition and classification

“A group of interacting, interrelated, or interdependent elements forming a complex whole ”

So within a system, the elements and their interactions had their own strength and weakness Some components may dominant, some interactions closer than the others.Natural system is the broadest system, which contains human, animal, ecosystem and other living and non-living elements

Human creates Social system, Economic system, Built system and Institutional system.Human is the element in these systems and the interaction between us depend on the selected situations

Second concern is 3 types of factors involve in vulnerability-assessment

3.1.1 The Exposure factors

These are some external factors influence on both ecosystem and other artificialsystems in Xuan Thuy National Park For example:

Table 2: Exposure factors

NO

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1 Precipitation

The temperaturechanges to 2050 in:

Determining the effect of therainfall on the systemsDry season

Wet season

2 Sea level rise Determining the impact of thesea level rise on the systems

3 Temperaturechanges

The temperaturechanges to 2050 in: Determining the effect of the

temperature on the systemsDry season

Wet season

3.1.2 The Sensitivity factors.

These are some internal factors exist inside these systems

Table 3: Sensitivity factors

NO

1 the climate changeFlora responds to Monitoring changes of indicatorspecies in ecosystem

2 the climate changeFauna responds to

Native species Monitoring change in number ofnative species ecosystemImmigrants

species of immigrant species in ecosystemMonitoring the change in number

3.1.3 The Adaptive Capacity

The resilience of system to changes For example of social system

Figure 1: Social Determinants of Adaptive Capacity chart

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3.2 Research methods

3.2.1 Methodology

Vulnerability assessment method: using CAM methodology

ICEM’s CAM – Climate change adaptation and mitigation methodology has beendeveloped specifically for the Asia Pacific region and has been extensively tested andadjusted in ICEM projects

The CAM process illustrated includes five primary steps for adaptation planningincluding:

• Determining the project scope, by identifying the geographic and sector focus

of the assessment and the systems (natural, social, economic, institutional and built)which will be impacted Or and addressing their specific sensitivities and adaptivecapacity

• Conducting a baseline assessment to describe the past and existing situation,trends and drivers across each of the identified systems, projecting the changes to thesesystems which will occur irrespective of climate change

• Determining the climate change threats through an analysis of past extremeevents and trends and through climate model and downscaling of future climate andhydrology against various scenarios

• An impact and vulnerability assessment, which includes analysis of theprojected climatic threats to the target systems for defined time slices The impactassessment combines the level of exposure of key system components and assets andtheir relative sensitivity to the threats The vulnerability is a measure which considersthe impact and the capacity of the component or asset to adapt to it

• Defining adaptation responses: this step includes developing a range of optionsfor integrated adaptation interventions and then working with stakeholders todetermine priorities – with limited resources it is not possible or necessary to doeverything at once

• Providing feedback on the adaptation implementation Monitoringimplementation and making adjustments and additions based on experience and newinformation are critical to taking a phased and systematic approach to adaptation Thevulnerability-based approach is more appropriate due to allowing consideration forhuman efforts within a specific case The different region has different policies, distinctability with extremely weather phenomena

Figure 2: CAM methodology steps

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This report focuses on the second and third stages: (i) Identifying the threats frombaseline and (ii) Assessing the exposure, the sensitivity, and adaptive capacity to findout impacts and vulnerability

Figure 3: Vulnerability assessment

3.2.2 Explanations and evidences

This method is a qualitative method or the assessment base on researcheropinions ad experiences There are 2 kinds of evidences to prove and explain theseopinions:

1) Using scientific evidence (using secondary data)

Ecosystem vulnerability assessment: using secondary data about fauna and flora,monitoring and assessing the number of immigrant and native species

Spatial analysis: GRID raster dataset and GIS techniques (ArcGIS) The baseline

is the modeling data called “Climate model’’, recorded from 2005 to 2012 byinterpolation This GRID raster built from Climate model by Institute for Meteorology,Hydrology, and Environment (IMHEN) Using the spatial analysis tools (TabulateArea, Geometry Calculate) in GIS to compare exposure level between regions andcalculate the risky area

2) Understanding and documenting past extremes and trends (based onstakeholder experience, official records and expert judgment In many cases, availableinformation and capacities do not allow for useful science-based projections)

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3.2.3 Impact and vulnerability assessing

Explanations and evidences support the researcher perception Researcherresponsibility is put them in appropriate levels or qualitative them

Method of vulnerability qualitative by matrix: refer to ICEM

Impact is identified by the matrix:

Table 4: Impacts matrix

Exposure of system to climate threat

Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Within Sensitivity and Adaptive capacity, there are some sub-factors with distinct levels It is a tough question for researcher to figure out or standardize the final level ofAdaptive capacity or Sensitivity

Score rank developed from Adaptive capacity and Sensitivity (vulnerability dimension) is able to cope with this problem Results were averaged to give an overall rank:

Rank score = Total of component rank scores / Number of components

However, these given points are relative But before concluding or taking the average point to find the result, take an overview to identify the importance and the occupation of every factor in the system

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The vulnerability is identified by the matrix:

Table 5: The vulnerability matrix

IMPACT 1

Very Low

2 Low

3 Medium

3 High

5 Very High

Inconvenien

ce (day)

Short disruption

to system function (weeks)

Medium term disruption to system function (months)

Long term damage to system property or function (years)

Loss of life, livelihood or system integrity

Vulnerability index is calculated from equation as follows:

Chapter 4: XUAN THUY CHARACTERISTICS

Figure 4: Location of Xuan Thuy National Park

4.1 Natural conditions

4.1.1 Geographically administrative location

Xuan Thuy National Park owns total area of 7,100ha, including Con Lu, ConNgan, and Con Mo, approximately 65km away from Nam Dinh city and about 155kmfar from Ha Noi, being located 20º13'48" in the Northern Latitude and 106º31'00" inthe Eastern Longitude

The Eastern North region borders Hong River The Western North region bordersresidential areas including 5 communes: Giao Thien, Giao An, Giao Lac, Giao Xuanand Giao Hai, belonging to Giao Thuy district, Nam Dinh Province The Eastern Southregion and Western East borders the East Ocean

4.1.2 Topographic characteristics

The terrain is rather even and flat, sloping from the North down to the South It isthe site where deposition of the tidal mud flat form densely Its average height is from0.5 to 0.9 meters, especially in Con Lu, there is also a site 1.2-1.5 in height Thetopography of the tidal mud flat area is separated by Vop River and Tra River

Topography of protection sandbank such as Con Lu, Con Mo, Con Ngan lookslike a small kidney-shaped island turning its back on the Ocean

The topography of muddy tidal flats of Mangrove is low, large and slightlysloping, distributed between 2 generations of the sand dune This terrain results from aprocess of sediment accumulation in motives mechanism which happens mostly incalm The main active tidal system tends to flow toward the Western South, and theminor tidal one tends to move vertically, flowing into the main one (toward the EasternNorth- Western South) Topography of the ocean bottom tends to separate itsmovement along coastal line, the further it is from the coast, the more sloping theterrain is (1-200)

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4.1.3 Climate and hydrology regime

a) Climate

Xuan Thuy National Park is placed in the region of the tropical monsoon Thewinter keeps cold from November to March of the next year, it is dry cold in thebeginning and becomes wet cold in the end of winter The climate becomes wet hotfrom May to September of summer, tempest storms and lowly tropical pressure oftenoccurs

The total radiation amount is high, from 95-105kcal//a year, the total heat amount

is from 8,000-8,500degrees

The average temperature of the year is roughly 24℃, the temperature amplitude

in a year is Very High (reaching the minimum level of 6.8℃ and the maximum level of40.1℃)

The average yearly rainfall reaches 1,175mm, there are totally 133 rainy days in ayear, the highest level of rainfall in the year is 2,754mm and the lowest one is 978mm.The 2 main wind directions in a year are East northern from October to March ofthe next year and Eastern south from April to September The moist is rather high,fluctuating from approximately 70-90% The moist drops lowly in October, November,and December, less than 75% It increases highly in February, March, and April,coinciding with drizzle

b) Hydrology

Xuan Thuy National Park is in the regime of daily tide with a cycle of roughly25hours, there are some cases of repeated tide occurrences but rarely The averageamplitude of reiterating tide is from 1.5-1.8m, maximumly is 4m and minimum is0.25m

Variation of ocean salty here depends on hydrological phases and floodregulations of Hong River In the winter, the average salute level of the ocean is rather

homogenous, approximately from 18-30% In the summer, this number drops less than

in the winter, around 20-27%

4.1.4 Geology and Soil

a) Geology

Sedimental system and geomorphology in Xuan Thuy National Park iscomplicated but distributed in a natural arrangement, layer by layer and spacially fromcontinent to the ocean Units of sediments can be generalized as follows:

• The gray-black clay mud in coastal mangrove forest is rich in organic andmuddy, which is characterized for the previous period of maximum Holocene marinetransgression

• The gray-blue clay rich in Montmorillonite was formed by puddle or bay in theperiod of maximum Holocene marine transgression

• The gray-black mudthe remainings of the old-aged mangrove forest isbogginess, which is typical for the beginning period of retreating ocean

• Small-grained sand is left over in protection sand dune and the modernprotection sand one is bow-shaped and turn its back on the ocean

b) Soil

There are 2 main kinds of soil: alluvium mud and accumulating sand In general,

2 these kinds of soil have yet to be stable, still been strongly affected by natural factors.The main mineral is sand for construction, mineral sand is rare and coal mud is in thedeep layer with an unstable gas amount

4.1.5 Biological diversity

Xuan Thuy National Forest is the place on which branches of Hong Riverconcentrate, accumulative of huge alluvium and rich in nutrients Particularly in ConNgan, Con Lu with such green well-developing mangrove forests, there are manyspecies of bird migrating and hibernating

a) Flora diversity

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At the moment in Xuan Thuy National Park has approximately 101 species ofsenior vascular flora, belonging to 85 genus and 34 families Inclusively, there are 5species, 5 genus and 3 families in Pteridophyta phylum The rest belongs to the phylum

of angiosperm, there are inclusively 25 families, 57 genus and 68 species belonging todicot class, additionally 6 families, 23 genus and 20 species belonging to monocot class

2 most outstanding floral elements in the region of Xuan Thuy National Park are 2kinds of seaweed having economic values: Gracilaria bodgettii and Gracilariaverrucose

In addition, there are some species in the phylum of algae, such asBacillariophyta with 15 genus and 50 species; Pyrrophyta with 2 genus and 4 species;Cyanophyta with 2 genus and 3 species; Chlorophyta with 3 genus and 5 species;Euglenophyta with 2 species

b) Fauna diversity

 181 outstanding species belonging to 1 groups have been discovered in XuanThuy National Park, inclusively there are up to 107 species belonging to Copepodagroup, 14 species in Cladocera group and 18 species belonging to Larvae group

 136 species have been discovered in 5 groups: 16 species in Polychaeta, 61species of Crustacea and 2species in Brachiopoda

 156 species of fish have been discovered, 57 species of them have higheconomic value, such as Lates calcarifer, Bostrichthys Sinensis, Mugil nepanensisreus,Muraenesox cinereus, Pisoodonophis, Taius tumifrons

 181 species of bird have been reported to belong to 41 families and 13orders.Ciconiiformes, Anseriformes, Charadriiformes and Passeriformes are typical orders inhere Of 13 bird orders, sparrow order account for the most number of 19 families and

64 species, Charadriiformes order has 50 species, crane order has 20 species,Passeriformes order has 8 species and kingfisher order has 8 species and dabchickorder has 2 species

 In the preliminary investigation, 10 terrestrial species have been reported to beBat, Field Mouse, Dog, Fox, etc and 3 marine species also have been discovered to beLutra lutra, Lipotes vexillifer, and Neophocaena phocaenoides which are very rare to

be seen

 There has yet to be inventory results in detailed, but a diverse number ofindividuals have been found out in National Park, such as snakes, frogs and many otherkinds of insect-like Lepidoptera and Coleoptera

4.2 Economic conditions, social

4.2.1 Population and Social Security

Thien Giao commune is located in the East of Giao Thuy district, an area of1,180.5 hectares for 11,107 people, with Christian ethnic minority, more than 74 %concentrating on 15 neighborhoods Their vestiges are houses, temples, pagodas; 9churches and rectory 1, inclusively, the temple and pagoda Lac were recognized asHistoric Monuments - provincial culture

4.2.2 Labor, employment

The income of local people in Giao Thuy district depends on main activities:cultivation, husbandry, aquatic farming (catching/ harvesting and farming); industry(salt making); services and tourism As reported by Giao Thuy DPC, agriculturalproduction in farm-style, fishery and forestry are main activities, making up 50% oftotal production values In the 3 main activities, fishery makes up 23-35% and shallconstantly increase in 2002-2007

Cultivated area is mainly for two-rice cropping with averaged yield of 5.7 tons/ha

in winter rice and 5.1 tons/ha in summer rice The cultivated area on average is verylow Therefore, though the yield is high, and the income from husbandry is also not lowbut the income from pure agriculture is not sufficient for farmers and this is one of thereasons that thousands of people pour in the buffer zone to catch aquatic produces,

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cause disturbances and affect the ecosystem in Xuan Thuy National Park In 2011, totalproduction value reached 146.6 billion communes.

4.2.3 Comments

It can be said that water source in Xuan Thuy National Park plays such animportant role in maintaining the ecosystem as well as the recent economicdevelopment in the local region Studying the effective and sustainable integratedwater use in this area is essential because of the following main reasons:

• Water source in this area not only supports to agricultural production,aquaculture but also the domestic use of people in 5 communes in buffer zone

• Xuan Thuy National Park is recognized as RAMSAR area so the study onutilization of water sources is extremely important to maintaining ecosystems of themangrove forest here

• As this National Park locates near the Red river, besides being affected bysocioeconomic activities and environment in the surrounding areas, it has to be affected

by socioeconomic activities, upstream environment of Red river (where manyindustrial zones, factories, agricultural activities and other activities are polluting theriver every day), and many other natural effects

• Previously, no study has yet to be carried out on the water source in theregion. 

Chapter 5: RESEARCH RESULTS 5.1 Baseline and exposure

The third step in CAM method is qualification by explaining and ranking the level of Exposure, Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity Baseline is the process of recording the climatic features change in 20 years, from 1985 to 2005

Table 6 provides the detailed baseline and projected changes in Precipitation,

Temperature and Duration of extreme (days) - at 2030, 2050 and 2100

The Precipitation in later Dry season (December to February) is predicted drop by 0.7%, 1.26% and 2.4% in 2030, 2050 and 20100, respectively The Precipitation in later Wet season (September to November) is predicted increase by 3.67%, 6.63% and 12.65% in 2030, 2050 and 20100, respectively

The Daily maximum precipitation in later wet season (September to November) is forecasted sink by 6.33%, 21.03% and 18.58% in 2030, 2050 and 2100, respectively Duration of extreme precipitation falls slightly

The Temperature change is insignificant with only 1OC to 3OC change

Duration of extreme cold in later Dry season (Cold season – March to May ) is

predicted change by 6.38 days , in former Wet season ( Hot season – June to August ) isprojected change by 16 days

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Table 6: Baseline and projected 1 changes in Precipitation and Temperature

Climatic

parameters Season Baseline 2030 In 2050 In 2100 In Change in 2030 Change in 2050 Change in 2100

Precipitation

Dec – Feb (Dry season) 277.82 275.89 274.32 271.15 -0.70 -1.26 -2.40Sep – Nov

Five maps below will illustrate the geographical overview about climate changetrend and comparisons between the targeted area and surrounding area.

5.1.1 Baseline and change in precipitation

Rainfall in an area is affected by topography and wind regime Blasco (1983)observed that mangroves thrive in size and composition in the regions with high annualprecipitation and no dry season This comment is consistent with the mangrovesdistribution in the equator

In the tropics: rainfall is unevenly distributed throughout the year For example,there is no rainy season and only one dry season in the Southeast Asia The rainyseason is also the period when mangroves bloom or disperse seeds or seedlings, somangrove forests grow

As a result, in the regions of mangroves where the rainy season coincides with thereproduction season, the forest will develop Meanwhile, in those places whereprecipitation is high but the dry season coincides with the production season, themangrove forest cannot develop (due to lack of fresh water for seedlings)

Mangroves grow in tropical and subtropical lowland areas are affected by bothstrong light intensity in areas and monsoon In a dry season, strong light intensitybecomes one-factor constraining growth of mangrove tree Because it increases the airtemperature, leading to drop in soil humidity and evapotranspiration, a tree isdehydrated and cannot develop

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Figure 5: Baseline and change in precipitation in wet season in 2050 (Jun-Nov)

To start with, in the same baseline with precipitation monthly below 1,600mm,surrounding regions have lower change in wet season, for example, the proportion ofchange in precipitation Cuc Phuong National Park (Ninh Binh-Thanh Hoa-Hoa Binh)range between 3.6% and 4% also in Trang An (Ninh Binh) While this figure in Cat BaNational Park (Hai Phong) run from 4.1% to 4.5% The map illustrates that not only BaLat estuary is influenced significant by change in wet season rainfall, but also Red riverdelta (Ha Noi- Hung Yen- Thai Binh-Nam Dinh) and Xuan Thuy National Park reach4.6% - 5% in change

That means with baseline at 1345.2 mm, precipitation in wet season will reach at1412.46 mm, with 4 or 5 days have extreme high rainfall Increasing rainfall can makethe mangroves grow faster, increase diversity, expand but also degrade and reduce thisecosystem range.

Precipitation change in wet season threat Xuan Thuy National Park at Medium

level or 3 point

Figure 6: Baseline and change in precipitation n a dry season in 2050 (Dec – May)

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