Báo cáo về tiềm năng thị trường bất động sản việt nam rediscovering vietnam’s real estate potential

SINCE 2003?•Limited capital markets •An emerging condo market in Hanoi and HCMC • Conspicuous consumption • Ability to borrow from local banks at 10-11% per annum • Consistently rising

REDISCOVERING VIETNAM’S REAL

ESTATE POTENTIAL

1 st March, 2007 Renaissance Hotel, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

Presented by:

Marc Townsend – Managing Director

SINCE 2003?

•Limited capital markets

•An emerging condo market in Hanoi and HCMC

• Conspicuous consumption

• Ability to borrow from local banks at 10-11% per annum

• Consistently rising GDP and FDI

• China + 1, APRC, the Stock Market and entry to WTO has put Vietnam on the radar screen, coupled with the ML report in Feb and the Euro Money Conference in Mar 2006

• Saturation in other South East Asian markets

MAP OF VIETNAM

HO CHI MINH CITY

VIETNAM TODAY

• World leaders in pepper, coffee, cashew, shoes, fish/prawns, oil & gas exports

• No shortage of land, just good sites

• “If you build it, they will come” still exists but may not last much longer

• Many similarities to China in the early 90s in terms of work ethic, chaos on the streets, migration of work force and market driven decisions

• Traffic, complete absence of infrastructure, MRT/MTR, bridges and tunnels

HCMC OFFICE MARKET

HCMC Prime Office Stock End of Q1.2007

200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000

Q1/0

4 Q2/0

4 Q3/0

4 Q4/0

4 Q1/0

5 Q2/0

5 Q3/0

5 Q4/0

5 Q1/0

6 Q2/0

6 Q3/0

6 Q4/0

6 Q1/07

sqm

Office Stock at the beginning of the quarter New supply during the quarter

HCMC OFFICE MARKET

Prime Office Rental Index

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Sailing Tower

Metropolitan Saigon Tower

Sun Wah Saigon Center

Diamond Plaza

Gemadept Saigon Trade Center

Me Linh Point

PetroVietnam

9 DTH Sacombank

Bao Viet

Golden Tower

HCMC OFFICE MARKET

Take up and vacancy rate of

HCMC office buildings

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000

HCMC OFFICE MARKET – Rental Rates

Rental growth of Grade A

2006 - 2007

*Note: Rents excluding S C and VAT

Q1 - 2006 $23.00 Q1 - 2007 $29.50

Occupancy 100%

HCMC OFFICE MARKET – Rental Rates

Rental Growth of Grade B

2006 - 2007

* Note: rents excluding S.C and VAT

unit:US$ growth rate 26%

Q1 - 2006 $21.00 Q1 - 2007 $26.50

Occupancy 99%

HCMC OFFICE MARKET – Rental Rates

Rental Growth of Grade C

2006 - 2007

* Note: rents excluding S.C and VAT

Q1 - 2006 $17.50 Q1 - 2007 $20.50

Occupancy 95%

9Factors driving demand: Strong economic growth, FDI growth, WTO access, new multi-national companies, expansion of existing multi-national companies, Vietnam companies upgrading, safety & quality Issues

9 Grade A office rental rates reflects upward momentum and growing demand vis-à-vis tight supply

9 Vacancy rate remains low, grade A (0%) and B (<1%)

180,657 18

2008

187,824 15

2009

273,146 12

2010

800,425 72

TOTAL

158,798 27

2007

Expected supply (sqm)

Supply of new grade

A, B & C buildings

Expected year of completion

HCMC OFFICE MARKETHCMC MAJOR UNDER CONSTRUCTION OFFICE DEVELOPMENTS IN Q1&Q2/07

3,100

8,000

27,000 1,600

10,143 10,780 3,960

7,600 6,000

11,945 6,000

Opera View - Dist 1 Rosaco Tower - Dist 1 E-Town 2 - Tan Binh

Lancaster Petro VN, Dist 1 Vimedimex - Dist 1 E-Star, Dist 3 ITAXA, Dist 3 N'Orch - Dist 1 Cetpa - Tan Binh Manulife - Dist 7

Rosaco Tower Petro VN VP Bank Tower Sacom Bank Centec Asiana

Plaza Financial Tower Vietcombank Tower

2007 2008 2009 2010

THE MARKET’S TIMING – LARGER BUILDINGS

Bao Viet 20,000 sqm (owner occupied)

VPBank 20,000 sqm (12,000 sqm for lease)

Times Square 31,000 sqm

HCMC Power Head Office 20,000 sqm (10,000 sqm for lease)

Centec 25,000 sqm

Asiana Plaza 32,000 sqm

Vietcombank 77,000 sqm

Financial Tower 100,000 sqm

M&C Tower 35,000 sqm

2010

2011

Gemadept 16,500 sqm (10,000 sqm for lease)

A & B 25,000 sqm

2010

RESIDENTIAL CONDO HCMCNumber of Condos and Projects launched year-by-year

0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000

MAP OF CONDO PROJECTS IN HCMC

RESIDENTIAL CONDO HCMC

Completed Condominium Units year-by-year

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

RESIDENTIAL CONDO HCMC

Ave rage S e l l i ng P ri ce Change of T ypi cal Hi gh-e nd Condo

P roje cts i n Di stri ct 2 and Bi nh T hanh

RESIDENTIAL CONDO HCMCRatio between launched and sold units year-by-year

0 9000 18000 27000 36000 45000

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Accumulation of remaining units

648 798 922 3226 6284 12082 22755 36909

Acummulation of sold units

RESIDENTIAL CONDO HCMC – FUTURE SUPPLY

Projects will be completed in 2007 – 2009

Central Garden-D.1 Hung Vuong Plaza-D.5 Cantavil-D.2 River Garden-D.2 Capitaland Vista-D.2 Ben Thanh Orient

Plaza-D.1

New Development year-by-year

0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000

0 10 20 30 40 50

RESIDENTIAL CONDO HCMC

TRENDS:

9New money flow from stock market into property

9Strong investment wave from Asia: Korea, Japan, Singapore Keen on buying projects already licensed and under construction instead of leasing land, developing from the beginning

9Hot market with more money from foreign institutional and individual investors activated by Land Law effective from 1 Jul 06 and Property Trading Law from 1 Jan 07

9With encouraging Government policies, more developers investing in low income projects

RESIDENTIAL CONDO HCMC

TRENDS:

infrastructure remain high

as speculators as previously.

come partly thanks to loan flexibility of banks.

brand plays a more and more important role

RESIDENTIAL VILLA HCMC

Phu GIa – PMH town Thao Nguyen SG-D.9 Thu Duc Garden Home-TD Villa Riviera – D.2 An Phu Dong Villa – D.12

Price Trend of Phu Gia, Villa R iviera and Thu Duc Garden H om e

HCMC RESIDENTIAL FOR LEASE MARKET OVERVIEW

Ho Chi Minh City Serviced Apartments

9 Less Usable Area

Current Serviced Apartments

0 40 80 120 160 200

Diamon

d Plaza

Sheraton (Oc

ean Place)

Somerset C

hancellor

Court

Units

0 10 20 30 40 50

Supply Average Rent ($US/sqm/mth)

District 1 & 3

projects There are 7 grade A serviced apartment projects provide over 500 units from 1 to 4 bedrooms

with most marketable size of 1 & 2 bedrooms, from 50 – 80 sqm

20%, from US$22 to US$31 per sqm per month in January

2006 to US$25 to US$35 in December 2006

expected to keep rising during 2007.

RESIDENTIAL FOR LEASE HCMC

RESIDENTIAL FOR LEASE HCMC

An Phu, An Khanh, District 2

ƒ Still an attractive area for tenants with family

ƒ Limited good quality villas and serviced apartments

ƒ Few new developing projects in apartments and gated compound (River View and River Garden)

ƒ Average rent of US$2,500 to 3,500 per month With a 15% - 20% increase in rental prices within the past year

RESIDENTIAL FOR LEASE HCMC – IN DISTRICT 2

$11

$5,000450

2

Thao DienVilla

$6.25

$2,500400

4

Thao Dien Compound

$9

$3,300350

3

Le Van Mien

$12

$7,000600

5

Nguyen Van Huong

Rent/SQM

Asking Rent/MonthSQM

BedroomsPicture

Location

RESIDENTIAL FOR LEASE HCMC - 2007 NEW SUPPLY

1,160 11,300 3,300

27,531

Total sqm

Location Project

4-5 bdrs 11

January 2007

Saigon Queen Villa Nguyen Van Huong, An Phu, District 2,

1-4 bdrs 100

February 2007

Green Hills Lot 25, Quang Trung Software Park, District 12, 40 minutes to CBD

1-3 bdrs

40 - 50

February/ March 2007

The Lancaster

Le Thanh Ton Street, District 1,

CBD

2-4 bdrs 228

February/March 2007

Pasteur Court Pasteur Street, District 3, 5 minutes

to CBD

An Phu Small SA

The Manor 2

Kumho Asiana Plaza Times Square

Saigon Riverview Apartments Saigon Pearl

RESIDENTIAL FOR LEASE HCMC - FUTURE PROJECTS

VN STOCK MARKET

VN Index from 18 July 2000 to 27 February 2007

VN STOCK MARKET

0 200 400 600 800 1000

VN index

28/7/2000:2 listed companies - VN Index: 100 – Daily turnover Avg $45m

27/2/2007:107 listed companies & 2 funds- VN Index: 1167.36 - Market capitalisation:$15b

VN Index: increased by 9.5 times

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000

2000 2007

Market cap: increased by 300 times

100 RICHEST PEOPLE IN VIETNAM

(Till 3rd Jan 2007)

71,625,500 MPC

Deputy Director Chu Thị Bình - Deputy Director

5

71,625,500 MPC

Minh Phú Fisheries

Lê Văn Quang - Chairman &

General

Director 4

74,562,500 FPT

FPT- Technology Investment and Development Co.

Bùi Quang Ngọc - Vice Chairman &

Deputy Director 3

106,625,000 FPT

FPT- Technology Investment and Development Co.

Lê Quang Tiến – Vice Chairman &

Deputy Director 2

147,125,000 FPT

FPT- Technology Investment and Development Co

Trương Gia Bình – Chairman &

General Director 1

Value (US$) Code

Listed companies Name

Rank

HCMC RETAIL MARKET

2004 RANK

2005 RANK

2006 RANKCOUNTRY

89

10

TURKEY

57

9

CROATIA

45

8

SLOVENIA

66

7

LATVIA

-

-6

CHILE

34

5

CHINA

113

4

UKRAINE

78

3

VIETNAM

12

2

RUSSIA

21

1

INDIA

Top 10 Countries for Retail Investment

HCMC RETAIL MARKET

HCMC Shopping Centre Existing Supply

6,252 5,700

8,000 1,366

6,810

21,797 17,000

14,670

18,000 5,000

5,000

Saigon Centre Dist 1

Saigon Superbowl Tan Binh

Diamond Plaza Dist 1

Lucky Plaza Dist 1

Zen Plaza Dist 1

Thuan Kieu Plaza Dist 5

Parkson Dist 1

Tax Plaza Dist 1

An Dong Plaza Dist 5 Saigon Square

Eden Mall Dist 1

CBD prime occupancy rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 95% 95% 95% 94% 100% 100%

CBD prime average rents $32.40 $32.40 $32.40 $35.33 $36.67 $39.95 $43.03 $45.11 $49.21 $59.68 $80.00

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

HCMC RETAIL MARKET

unit: US$/sqm/month

COMP AR IS ON OF R E T AIL R E NT S IN CIT IE S IN S OUT H E AS T AS IA

727 560

290 191

185 133 70

80 48 20

Hong Kong Bangkok Singapore Taipei Shanghai Beijing Jakarta

Ho Chi Minh City New Delhi Manila

(Source: CBR E)

HCMC RETAIL MARKET

Source: CB Richard Ellis

Growth in prime retail rates in HCMC

HCMC RETAIL MARKET – NEW RETAIL CENTRES

HCMC RETAIL MARKET – FUTURE SUPPLY

12,367 11,882 6,880

8,292

30,000

Opera View Dist 1

Tan Da Court Dist 5

Saigon Paragon Dist 7

Hung Vuong Plaza Dist 5

Sailing Tower Dist 1

Times Square Dist 1

Happiness Square Dist 5

Kumho Asiana Dist 1

SJC Tower Dist 1

Saigon Pearl Binh Thanh

HCMC RETAIL MARKET – FUTURE SUPPLY COMING NEXT IN EARLY 2007

OPERA VIEW – 161 – 167 Dong Khoi, Dist 1

Retail GFA: 1,280 sqmRents: US$80 to US$130 per sqmOccupancy: 100%

Major tenant: Louis Vuitton

HCMC RETAIL MARKET – FUTURE SUPPLY

HCMC RETAIL MARKET – FUTURE SUPPLY

HUNG VUONG PLAZA

Location: 126 Hung Vuong St Dist 5

Developer : M&C and Kinh Do

Mixed use development with 6 levels

of retail inc cinema and 2 basement parking

Leasable Area : 17,000sqmOpening : Q1/2008

Major tenants: Parkson and Megastar

Hotel Market HCMC

41 6,785

TOTAL

83 23

1,903

3 - star

181 8

1,447

4 - star

344 10

3,435

5 – star

ROOMS PER HOTEL

HOTELS ROOMS

HOTEL

HOTELS FROM FIVE TO THREE STARS, 2006

(Source: CBRE)

No of Hotels

No of Rooms

Hotel Market HCMC

0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 140.00

5 star 108.00 128.20

4 star 80.00 94.96

3 star 45.00 53.42

2005 2006(Est.)

AVERAGE ROOM RATE (US$), 2005-2006

Average % Increase from 2005

arrivals up 350,000 from 2005

Growth down from

2006 by 9.08 %

Hotel Market HCMC

776

692 519

80

- 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 2007F

2008F

2009F

2010F

Existing Supply New Supply

Times Square, Saigon

Happiness

2010F

Asiana Plaza and

International Trade Centre (Tax Plaza)

2009F

Grand, Majestic, Continental, Majestic Upgrade In PMH District

7 of Saigon Tourist

2008F

Rex Upgrade 2007F

DEVELOPMENT YEAR

EXISTING AND FUTURE SUPPLY OF 4 AND 5-STAR ROOMS

HANOI OFFICE MARKET

- Increasing demand on Grade A & B office space

- Low vacancy rate remains on Grade A &B office space

Take-up and Vacancy of Grade A&B Office Properties

-5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000

35.00% Take-up

HANOI OFFICE MARKET

Rental

Q3-Q4/2006: Sharp increase in Grade A & Grade B office rentals

- Grade A Office: 9.5% and 7.5% increase q-o-q, respectively in Q3 and Q4

- Grade B Office: 10.7% and 7.9% increase q-o-q, respectively in Q3 and Q4

Average Rental of Hanoi Grade A Office Properties

20.00 22.00 24.00 26.00 28.00 30.00 32.00

HANOI OFFICE MARKET

Future Supply

- 22,350sqm GFA of Grade A Office space will come on stream in Q1/2007

- Significant amount of Grade B office space will be launched during 2007

Estimated new stock of Grade A,B&C Office

239,022

92,900 87,500

58,000

0 50,000 100,000

2007 2008 2009 2010

S qm

HANOI OFFICE MARKET

Land Area – 888sqm Office GFA – 3,550sqm Retail NLA – 1,070sqm

OPERA BUSINESS CENTRE

Opening date

HANOI OFFICE MARKET

Q1/2007

PACIFIC PLACE

HANOI SERVICED APARTMENT MARKET

Supply

- 61 units of Somerset Westlake Hanoi has been closed for renovation for Q2-Q4/2006

- 39 units of Elegant Suites come on stream in Q3/2006

Hanoi Cumulative Stock of Grade A&B Serviced Apartments

61

347 519

84

146

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400

HANOI SERVICED APARTMENT MARKET

Demand

- Low vacancy rate

- High demand

Rentals

- Rental rate: US$18 - US$45/sqm/month

Average Asking Rent per sqm per month (US$)

HANOI SERVICED APARTMENT MARKET

Future Supply

- Strong growth

- Increasing demand

- Limited supply

- Vacancy rate still remains low

- Rental will increase slightly

- Increasing number of expatriates in Hanoi

2007 2008 2010 Uni ts

DMC Tan Long Skyline

Atlanta Somerset Hoa Binh Syrena

HANOI SERVICED APARTMENT MARKET

Serviced Apartment Building

15 storey building with 2 basements for parking Completion Date & Opening Date:

Q1/2007 Leasable Area:

NLA: 5,000sqm

52 Apartments

ATLANTA

HANOI SERVICED APARTMENT MARKET

Serviced Apartment Building

23 storey building with 1 basement Completion Date & Opening Date:

Q1/2007 Leasable Area:

NLA: 8,714sqm

88 Apartments

Opening date

SKYLINE

HOTEL & TOURISM MARKET

Y-o-Y Visitor Arrivals to Vietnam

- Low fair airlines: AsiaAir, Jetstar & Tiger Airlines

Nu mber of Foreign Visitor A rrivals to Vietnam

0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000

Number of foreign tourist arrivals y-o-y change

HANOI HOTEL & TOURISM MARKET

Tourist Profile

Inte rnati onal Visi tor Arri vals to Vi e tnam

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Inte rnati onal Vi si tor Arri val s by P urpose s

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200

HANOI HOTEL & TOURISM MARKET

Room Supply: 4,924 (5, 4 and 3 star hotels)

Number of Hotels

5-star 23.53%

4-star 14.71%

3-star 61.76%

Number of Hotels' rooms

5-star 48.01%

4-star 17.75%

3-star 34.24%

- 1.15 million int’l visitor arrivals to Hanoi in 2006

- 4,924 rooms, including 5, 4 and 3 star hotel rooms

- 5 star hotels: 2,364 rooms/ 8 hotels

NUMBER OF FOREIGN VISITOR A RRIVA LS

0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000

HANOI HOTEL & TOURISM MARKET

Room Supply: 3,238 rooms (5 and 4 star)

- Most of 5 and 4 star hotels came on stream in 1990s

- No new supply over last few

years

- Lack of quality hotel rooms

Cumulative Stock & New Supply of 5 & 4 star Hotel rooms

218 102

250 1,131 1,131

102

299

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500

HANOI HOTEL & TOURISM MARKET

ADR & Occupancy rate of 5 star hotels

- Stably high occupancy rate over years

- Occupancy rate as at end Q4/2006:

•5 star hotels: approx 84.28%

•4 star hotels: approx 90.00%

•3 star hotels: approx 80%

- High demand

- Limited supply

- High occupancy rate, approximately 84% in Q4/2006

- 5 star hotels: ADR of US$128.26 as at end of Q4/2006

Average Occupancy Rate & ADR of 5-star Hotels

Ave Room rate Ave Occupancy rate

Monthly Occupancy Rate of Hanoi's 5-star Hotels

Jan- 06

Feb- 06

Mar- 06

Apr- 06

May- 06

Jun-Jul-06 06

Aug- 06

Sep- 06

Oct- 06 Dec- 06