Kinh te the gidi va nhufng van de toan cau d giai doan dau thien nien ky mdi Tii nvia sau cua the ky XX nhan loai da chijtng kien nhiing bien dong to 16n tren quy mo toan cau vdi nhii
Trang 1D D D D NGHIEN ClilU - TRAO DOI
XU THf TOAN CAU VA GIAI PHAP PHAT TRI^N DAT Mdc
GIAI DOAN 2010-2025
N g u y e n V a n L a n g *
1 Kinh te the gidi va nhufng van de toan
cau d giai doan dau thien nien ky mdi
Tii nvia sau cua the ky XX nhan loai da
chijtng kien nhiing bien dong to 16n tren quy
mo toan cau vdi nhiing cuoc chay dua vii
trang, dich chuyen chinh tri xa hoi va nhiing
canh tranh kinh te khong bien gi6i Tren
thiic te, xa hoi loai ngiidi dang thay doi ve
cha't de chuyen sang mot nen van minh m6i
cua Thdi dai tri tue, ma nguyen nhan va
dong liic chinh la cuoc each mang khoa hoc
cong nghe hien dai Bu6c qua do sang Thien
nien ky mdi da danh dau sii ket thiic ciia
thdi dai lay chay dua vii trang toan cau la
chinh va md ra thdi dai lay chay dua va canh
tranh kinh te, xen lan hdp tac va phat trien
lam muc tieu song con cua moi dan toe Cuoc
chien tranh lanh chiem linh tron ven toan
bo tu duy chinh tri va va kinh te ciia nhan
loai hdn 40 nam qua, gid day dang diidc thay
the bcii mot cuoc "Chien tranh kinh te*' vdi
phiidng cham "Hoi nhap, Hdp tac va Canh
tranh" Chien tranh lanh ket thiic, tuy
khong md ra ky nguyen mdi hoa binh va
thinh viidng nhii nhan loai mong ddi nhifng
da tao thuan ldi cho xu the hoa diu, hoa
hoan trong quan he giiia cac quoc gia; tao
tien de da ciic hoa trong xu the da dang hoa,
da phiidng hda, hoi nhap khu viic va quoc te
Trong dd, moi quoc gia va vung lanh tho deu
cvmg ton tai, ciing canh tranh va hdp tac
Giai doan ngay nay, khoa hoc va cong
nghe diidc khSng dinh la dong lUc phat trien
va tang triidng kinh te cua cac quoc gia va
moi nen kinh te Cach mang cong nghe hien dai da gdp phan dang ke vao cham diit mau
t h u i n Dong - Tay va khdi tao cue dien mdi tren cac mat: chinh tri, quan sii, kinh te, tai chinh, van hoa, thong tin Cong nghe thong tin, cong nghe sinh hoc, cong nghe vat lieu, cong nghe hang khong vii tru, cong nghe nang liidng mdi va nhieu cong nghe khac da tao diidc dot pha ldn trong nhiing lan sdng doi mdi vi dai, (RAND Corporation 2009)
Ben canh Cue dien dia - chinh tri da ciic,
da lan liidt xuat hien nhieu cue dien mdi
tren quy mo toan cau Dd la: Dia-kinh tevdi
tren 78.000 cong ty xuyen quoc gia, cd 780.000 chi nhanh niidc ngoai dang hoat dong vdi tong tai san nam 2006 len tdi 52
nghin ty USD; Dia • tdi chinh vdi 3 dong tien
thanh toan quoc te la USD, EURO, YEN va hang chuc dong tien thanh toan cua nhiing
niidc khac Dia - thong tin vdi bieu triing la
mang Internet ngay mot nang cap va md
rong; Dia • vdn hod vdi 3 khoi di biet Anglo-xdcxong, Hoi gido va Hdn hod tren quy mo
toan cau Nhiing nam dau Thien nien ky cue dien mdi dang tiidng tac l^n nhau trong ddi song eua xa hoi; diin ra dong thdi, thiidng xuyen, lien tue va xam nhap l l n nhau; da lam thang tram va dao Ion diidng loi va chien liidc doi ngoai ciia nhieu cac quoc gia tren k h i p cac luc dia
Tren quy mo toan eau va cae khu viic, qua trinh toan cau hoa diin ra vdi tdc do eao, Nguyen Van Lang, Tien sy kinh te, Thii trUdng Bo Khoa hoc va Cong nghe
Trang 2Li ill 1J NGHIEN Cl)li - TRAP DPI
khien d'n dinh tifdng doi tai moi quoc gia deu
cd nguy cd chuyen hoa thanh tinh the lien
tue xao tron Van de dat ra la, vdi tinh each
dac trifng thdi dai, qua trinh tang triidng va
phat trien ngay cang nhanh, khi nao se dat
tdi miic gidi han va khi nao se vifdt qua kha
nang giam sat, dieu tiet va quan ly cua eae
nha lanh dao qudc gia, to chiie va dinh che
qudc te? Day la khd khan vdi bat ky nha
lanh dao nao khi phai doi mat vdi nhiing van
de quoc te, nhiing van de mang tinh toan
cau Thiic te nay ddi hdi phai cd nhiing nd
liic phd'i hdp, hdp tac cua nhieu niidc thuoc
cac nen van hoa khac nhau
Tien bo phi thiidng cua lich sxi diia tren
nhiing dot pha khoa hoc va cdng nghe, dang
dat ra nhieu van de mdi vdi nhiing thaeh
thiic to ldn ve to chiic quan ly dd'i vdi cac nha
lanh dao d moi qudc gia, td chiie va dinh che
qudc te Bung nd dan so', khi hau ndng len
tren quy md toan clu, can kiet nguon nifdc,
nang lifdng va tai nguyen thien nhien; d
nhiem mdi trifdng, triet pha pha rifng, huy
hoai da dang sinh hoe, loai va sinh canh;
tham hoa thien nhien; nan ddi, tinh trang
phan hoa giau ngheo cung vdi cac luong di
dan, dai dich AIDS va gan day la dich eiim
H5N1 va H l N l la nhufng thaeh thiic thdi
dai rdng ldn
Hien tai va trong tifdng lai, bat ky qudc
gia nao eiing deu phai dd'i mat va tim kiem
giai phap hiiu hieu cho 4 van de mang tinh
toan cau Dd la: An ninh tdi chinh; An ninh
ndng luqng; An ninh iMng thUc; An ninh
moi trudng va kem theo dd la cac van de xa
hoi nay sinh
1.1 An ninh tdi chinh
Dot pha eiia cdng nghe thdng tin truyen
thdng da pha vd biic tifdng khdng gian - thdi
gian, mot lUdng khd'ng lo phi vu giao dich tai
chinh da difdc thiic hien thdng qua mang tai
ehinh dien tii toan cau, lien thdng vdi td'c do
ciic nhanh, tao nen mot khd'i ladng ldn tien
ao, ed gia tri gap hang tram ngan lan gia tri
ddng tien that, ma khdng mot ai, qud'c gia
hay td chiic nao cd the kiem soat ndi Hien
tlidng nay tao cdn sdng than tan pha he
thd'ng tai chinh ngan hang cua cac niidc phat trien Rieng d My, neu nam 1990 luan chuyen tien te trong mot thang eon d miic
3000 ty USD, thi den nam 2000, da vUdt 571 nghin ty USD, nghia la da tang tren 190 lan Cuoc khung hoang tin dung bat dau tu! n^a cudi nam 2007 d My, da lay lan tren quy md toan eau mot each n h a n h chdng; khien toan
bo thi trifdng tai chinh, tien te the gidi bi chao dao, te liet Nhieu td chufc tai chinh quoc te hang dau thua Id nang, da gay hieu ling sup dd dd'i vdi toan bo he thd'ng ngan hang d cae niidc phat trien Cuoc khung hoang tai chinh tai My, da keo theo Nhat Ban va nhieu nen kinh te ldn, nho khac rdi vao suy thoai, buoc Chinh phu cac niidc nay phai chi ra hang nghin ty USD de chong dd, hoac phai cau ciiu ngudn hd trd tvf ben ngoai Gia ca tang vot vao cud'i nam 2007 va dau nam 2008 gay bien dong ldn tai nhieu nifdc; bdn con rdng chau A, ciing bi anh hifdng nang ne, eho dii da bdm hang nghin ty USD vao de viic day nen kinh te
Trong bao eao "Trien vpng Kinh te The gidi" (WEO) cdng bd' triidc hdi nghi thiidng
nien Miia Xuan 2009, Quy Tien te The gidi (IMF) cho biet cuoc khung hoang hien nay tac ddng bat ldi tdi hoat dong thiidng mai qud'c te, khd'i lifdng thifdng mai dii kien giam 11% va kinh te the gidi cung giam 1,3% trong nam 2009 va chi tang chtfng 0,6% vao nam 2010 ( IMF 2009) Tvf thiic te cua khung hoang tai chinh lan nay, lanh dao nhieu niidc, cac td chiic va dinh che qud'c te
deu cd chung nhan xet la: Cuoc khung hoang
dd dnh hicdng tdi mpi niidc trong cue dien dia - chinh tri khien nhieu niidc phai giam
bdt lap triidng ciing r i n trong chinh sach ddi
ngoai Khiing hoang tdi chinh vd suy thoai kinh te todn cdu cho thdy vai trb vd tdm quan trpng ciia Nhd niidc trong viec dieu hdnh kinh tevi mo da lam sup dd hoc thuyet cua phai kinh te "Tdn tiX do" va khdi day lai
Ly thuyet Keyne, di cao vai trb dieu tiet vl
mo cua Nhd nUdc ddi vdi nin kinh te
Trong the gidi toan cau hoa, cae nen kinh
te n i m trong sii tuy thuoc l l n nhau
(Interdependence) d miic dd cao, dd xudt
QUAN LY KINH T£
Si29nu12/2009)
Trang 3xu JHi TOAN CAU VA GIAI PHAP PHAT TRif N DAT NUdC GIAI DOAN 2010-2025 NGHIEN ClilU - TRAP DPI ^^\\
hien mot ca che xii ly khung hoang dqi dien
cho cd nhiing nen kinh te phdt trien ldn dang
phdt trien: dd Id G-20 Mac dii cd che nay chiia
diing khdng it khuyet tat, song day vin difdc
coi la mot "hien tifdng" mdi cua thdi dai Cuoc
khiing hoang tai chinh lan nay tai cac nifdc
phat trien nhat the gidi bao hieu Thdi dai Pax
Americana (Hda binh the gidi dudi sii ba chu
cua My) se ket thdc Trong mot tifdng lai khdng
xa, the gidi se sdng trong nen hba binh diidi sit
hd chu kinh te cua Trung Qudc - gqi Id Pax
Sinica Theo GS kinh te ndi tieng Niall
Ferguson thuoc Dai hoc Harvard (My) thi day
"Khong phdi Id sii liia chpn, md Id vdn de thdi
gian vd dinh menh"
1 2 An ninh ndng litgng
P h l n ldn cac ngudn nang lifdng ma chiing
ta dang s\l dung deu bat ngudn tii hda thaeh
(than da, dau md, khi ddt ), la dang tai
nguyen khdng the tai tao, diidc khai thac tii
trong long dat va cac dai difdng Theo dii
bao, ngudn nang lifdng nay se can kiet, dau
md thifdng mai chi cdn dii dCing 60 nam, khi
tii nhien 80 nam va than khoang 150 - 200
nam Quy Bao ve Dong vat hoang da The
gidi (WWF) eho biet, con ngiidi dang sii dung
ngudn tai nguyen thien nhien vdi tdc do
nhanh hdn nhieu lan so vdi kha nang san
xuat mdi ciia hanh tinh Loai ngifdi hien tieu
thu nhieu hdn 20% kha nang tai tao tai
nguyen eiia trai dat Tif nam 1970 den 2000,
con ngiidi da sii dung 40% sd'ddng vat sd'ng
tren can, ngudn nifdc va sinh vat bien Trong
giai doan 1961-2000, tieu thu nang lifdng
hoa thaeh (than, khi va dau liia) ciing tang
khoang 7 lan
Trong xu the phat trien tieu diing, an
ninh nang lifdng dang trd thanh van de cap
bach; nhieu nifde tren the gidi dang ed
nhiing hanh ddng tang cifdng an ninh nang
lifdng va ldi giai cho van de nay la md rdng
viec sii dung nang lifdng tai tao (mat trdi,
gid, thuy dien, dia nhiet v.v.), khai thac td't
cae ngudn nang lUdng mdi (hydro, nhiet
hach, v.v.) Day la viec lam cd the gdp phan
tich ciic xda di hang loat cuoc chien tranh
hoac khung hoang dang cd nguy cd dien ra
1 3 An ninh liicfng thUc
Td Chiie Ndng - Liidng Lien Hiep Qud'c (FAO) dii bao, nam 2009, sd' ngifdi thieu an tren the gidi vifdt ngifdng mot ty Theo Jacques Diouf, Tdng Giam ddc FAO, nguy cd ngifdi ngheo thieu an se cdn gia tang ciing vdi cac kho dii trii lifdng thiic the gidi rdi xudng miic thap nhat va viec san xuat ngay cang bi bien ddi khi hau de doa Ong ket
luan: "Khung hodng liidng thiic khong nhiing vdn cbn do, md lqi cbn bi khung hodng kinh te tdi chinh Idm cho gay gdt them" Tai Hoi nghi Bd triidng Bo Ndng
nghiep cae qud'c gia G8 t h a n g 4/2009, Kanayo Nwanze, Giam ddc Quy phat trien
Lifdng thiic The gidi ( FIDA) eho biet "Tdi ndm 2050, tdng sdn pham liicfng thiic the' gidi buoc phdi tdng gdp doi mdi ddp Ung du nhu cdu cita cii ddn tren hdnh tinh, de ed the nudi mot dan sd' se len den 9 ty ngifdi Ddy
Id yen cdu nong nghiep the gidi phdi ddp iing trong dieu kien ddn sd phdt trien binh thiidng nhii hien nay"
Thaeh thiic an ninh liidng thiic ddi hdi lanh dao cac qud'c gia, phai ed bien phap, ehinh sach va ke hoach hanh ddng n h i m tao
ra nhiing thay ddi khuynh hifdng d i u tif ndng nghiep; xac lap nhiing van de, linh viic then chdt ddi vdi tang trifdng kinh te, dam bao an ninh lifdng thiic tren pham vi toan clu (Kanayo Nwanze, 2009)
1 4 An ninh moi tnidng
Nhan loai dang phai ddi mat vdi nhieu van de mdi triidng biic xiic va nan giai, ndi
bat nhat la nan can kiet cdc nguon tdi nguyen thien nhien; 6 nhiim moi triidng vd nhiing tai bien thien nhien Neu d the ky
XVIII, Man-tuyt va Tiu-go diia ra cai goi la
Quy luqt ve sii gidm ddn sii phi nhieu cua ddt dai; den the ky XIX, Tdm-xdn va
Cd-ru-xd dat van de ve sii can kiet cdc nguon ndng liidng, thi ngay nay con ngiidi da phai noi den nguy ca can kiet todn bg cdc nguon tdi nguyen thien nhien, ca tai tao va khdng tai
tao tren hanh tinh Di cung can kiet tai nguyen thien nhien la van nan d nhiem mdi triidng, d i n den nhiing hiem hoa sinh thai
Trang 4VTJl NGHIEN COU - TRAP DPI x u THf T O A N CAU VA GIAI PHAP PHAT T R I ^ N OAT Nl/dC GIAI EXDAN 2010-2025
tiem tang, ma hau qua chiia the nao lifdng
het Trong nhiing hiem hoa gay ra, nguy
hiem va nan giai la hien tifdng gay hieu Ung
nhd kinh, 16 thdng tdng 6-z6n, miia a-xit, sa
mac hoa vd sii suy gidm da dang sinh hpc
lam bien ddi cac dieu kien thien nhien theo
chieu hifdng rat tieu ciic dd'i vdi sii sd'ng tren
trai dat
Mot trong nhiing bien ddi sinh t h a i
nguy hiem n h a t la sii thay ddi khi hdu trdi
ddt Day la h a u qua tong hdp, t a t yeu ciia
cac hien tifdng d n h i i m mdi trifdng Theo
nhieu dii bao, nhiet dp trung binh cda trdi
ddt giiia the ky XXI se t a n g len tii 1,5° C
den 4,5°C va keo theo la biet bao hiem hoa
khac Theo G.B Brdn-td-man, n g u y e n
Chu tich iiy ban Mdi trifdng va P h a t trien
The gidi, bien ddi khi h a u la mdi de doa
ldn nhat, nd khdng nhiing de doa sii tdn
vong ciia loai ngifdi, ma cdn uy hiep ca
tifdng lai Trai dat Mdi n a m n h a n loai t h a i
r a khoang 7,9 Gton (ti tan) carbon (diia
t r e n difdng lifdng hda hoc thi trong 3,7 t a n
C 0 2 cd chiia 1 t a n carbon) tii viec dot chay
nhien lieu hda thaeh, va tif 1-2 Gton C do
t h a m hoa chay riing Gidi h a n nguy hiem
ciia h a n h tinh la miic t a n g nhiet do t r u n g
binh toan c l u len +2°C, tifdng iing vdi m a t
do C 0 2 trong bau khi quyen cham miic
450ppm Hien nay, m a t do khi C 0 2 trong
khi quyen la 390ppm, cd nghia la con
ngifdi chi difdc phep t h a i r a t h e m 60ppm
khi C 0 2 Van de cang trd n e n nghiem
trong hdn khi nhiet do toan cau t a n g t h e m
t r e n 2°C la Bien bang se khdng cdn tdn tai
d hai ciic Trai dat va miic niidc bien ddng
cao (Sea level rise - SLR) Id diiu khong
the trdnh khoi Theo IPCC, k h i SLR
dang cao h d n l m , B a n g l a d e s h se m a t
k h o a n g 1/5 dien tich, hdn 2.000 d a m
vudng d viing duyen h a i va t h a n h t h i
tieu b a n g N o r t h Carolina (My) se n i m
difdi miic niidc bien Ba mifdi t r o n g so'
cac t h a n h phd' ldn n h a t cua t h e gidi d a n g
n i m gan bien, I m t h u y t r i e u d a n g se day
triic tiep 300 t r i e u ngifdi vao t i n h t r a n g
nguy hiem
1.5 Nhiing vdn de xd hpi
Mot t r o n g n h i i n g v a n de ndi len gay biic xiic d moi qud'c gia va mdi ngifdi dan
la 6 nhiem moi triidng tinh thdn con ngiidi O n h i e m v a n hda, d n h i e m dao diic
la nhiing v a n de khd t h a y , nhifng siic huy hoai ciia chiing t h i t h a t k h d n lifdng O day, cd t h e t a m n e u r a mot so' n h a n xet ve
t h a m nhiing, m a n g I n t e r n e t va van n a n riia tien
Tham nhiing la viec sif d u n g quyen liic,
uy tin va dia vi cdng cong de chiem doat cac gia tri v a t c h a t va t i n h t h a n cua xa hoi hoac cua ngiidi k h a c Doi tifdng t h a m nhiing khdng chi la nhiing gia t r i vat chat nhif ngifdi t a thifdng q u a n niem, m a cdn la nhiing gia tri t i n h t h a n O linh vxfc tinh
t h i n , rnvfc do n g u y hiem cvia t h a m nhiing cdn ghe gdm hdn n h i e u so vdi vat chat Trong linh viic cd ve nhif yen dn nay, hien tlidng t h a m nhiing dien r a t i n h vi, nang
ne va siic t a n p h a xa hoi cdn khdc liet hdn
T h a m nhiing la mot can b e n h cua n h a n loai, tdn tai t r o n g moi xa hoi, moi thdi dai, moi he thd'ng chinh tri va moi d a n tdc deu phai dd'i m a t Cd t h e ndi, t h a m nhiing vdi nhieu bien t h a i t i n h vi dd la mot phan thuoc ve b a n chat ddi sd'ng con ngifdi Chiing t a khdng t h e xoa sach difdc t h a m nhiing, ddn gian vi chiing t a khdng the tieu diet h e t loai ngifdi Do vay, khdng the chi n h i n t h a m nhiing diidi con m i t cua
n h a tdi p h a m hoc m a p h a i nghien ciiu nd mot each t o a n dien va bien chiing difdi nhiing k h i a c a n h k h a c n h a u cua ddi sd'ng
k i n h te-xa hdi Chi cd each n h i n diing d i n
va k h a c h q u a n mdi giiip chiing t a cd diidc nhiing phifdng thuo'c hieu nghiem de che ngii, hay it n h a t la h a n che thii b e n h dich
xa hdi nay
Internet Id mot mon ldi bdt ngd, nhiing cdng Id mot nguy cd tiem dn to ldn Hda
chat doc hai, thuoc trii sau, h a n the, for-mol "dau doc" t h e xac con ngiidi The nhifng thii "doc to" d a n g sd, k h o n g chi lam
d nhiem ddi song t i n h t h a n cua ca xa hoi
ma cdn "dau doc" khiing khiep hdn ca ma
QUAN Lt KINH it
siam*^vrm^
Trang 5xu THf TOAN CAU VA GIAI PHAP PHAT TRif N DAT NLfOC GIAI EXDAN 2010-2025 NGHIEN Cllnj - TRAP DPI rrm
tiiy, mai dam, dd la nhiing t r a n g "Web
den" Ben canh ldi ich khdng the phii n h a n
cua Internet, cdng nghe thdng tin ky dieu
tren nhiing website den ciing de trd t h a n h
cdng cu "truyen nhiem" van hda ddi truy,
hiiy hoai nhiing gia tri van hoa, dao diic
cua moi qud'c gia, ma biet bao the he di
trifdc da day cdng xay diing, giii gin
Riia tien {Money Laundering) la viec bien
ddi thu nhap phi phap thanh tai san ma cac
cd quan cdng quyen khdng the truy ra ngudn
gdc Theo Quy Tien te Qud'c Te (IMF), hang
nam cd khoang 640 ti den 1,6 nghin ty USD,
khoang 2-5% GDP toan c l u la tien ban
Trong dd, khoang 250 ti USD di vao nUdc
My; lifdng tien nay ldn hdn tdng doanh thu
cua cac cdng ty cdng nghiep vii khi, d i u hoa
va may bay Do ddng dd la My va Euro difdc
sii dung chung hoac cdng nhan nhif la ndi te
ban ehinh thiic, nhieu lifdng tien khdng id,
ca sach va b i n , deu cd the chuyen tif nUdc
nay sang nifde khac trong nhay mat, ngoai
t i m kiem soat ciia cd quan cdng quyen
Ciing vdi do md kinh te d cac qud'c gia
tang vot, h i u nhif moi ngan hang, cdng ty
tai chinh, giao dich chiing khoan deu cd
ddi tac qudc te, tham chi 100% la cua nifdc
ngoai Trong vdng 15 nam g i n day lifdng
tien lifu hanh toan eau tang gap 3 lln; tif
nam 1990 den 2000 dau tif gian tiep nifdc
ngoa tang gap 10 l l n va d i u tif triic tiep
tang gan 3 l l n (nam 2003 dat 560 ty USD)
Dieu hien nhien la, cang nhieu loai hinh
dieh vu tai chinh thi cang lam ed hoi va each
thiic de chuyen tien phi phap, hoac difa tien
ban vao ludng tien sach Tien ban va hoat
ddng riia tien lam sai lech cac thd'ng ke kinh
te, lam anh hifdng sau sac den phan bd' thu
nhap, tao bat cdng va lam chao dao sii tin
nhiem eiia xa hdi vao cae thi trifdng tai
chinh 0 cac nifde kem p h i t trien, tham
nhiing, riia tien la van nan nhiie nhdi Trai
lai, nhiing nifde phifdng Tay lai khdng he
"che" tien ban do tham nhiing d elc nifde
khac De chdng rifa tien, van de rd rang la
ein cd quyet tam cao ciia cae lanh dao moi
qud'c gia trong sii phdi hdp toan cau
The ky XX da vinh v i i n qua di vdi
tinh each la mot thdi ky p h a t trien "Hodng kim", "Thdi vdng son" Trong Thien nien
ky mdi, n h a n loai, l a n h dao d moi qud'c gia, cae td chiic va dinh che the gidi dang bUdc vao mot thdi ky p h a t trien mdi, vdi ddi hdi cao va nhieu hdn ve ly tri, tU duy khoa hoc; Viet N a m khdng n i m ngoai bd'i canh
da neu va cang ddi hdi phai cd tif duy lanh dao mdi
2 Thvfc t r a n g k i n h t e va nhiifng giai
p h a p x a y d i i n g d a t nvCdc t h e o h i i d n g
" d a n g i a u , ntidc m a n h "
Bude vao t h e ' k y XXI, sau khi trd t h a n h
t h a n h vien chinh thiic ciia WTO, thiic hien cam ket Quy che thifdng mai binh thifdng vinh v i i n (PNTR) vdi Hoa Ky; cac rao can thifdng mai d a n difdc dd bd, vi the ciia Viet Nam t r e n trifdng qud'c te ngay mot n a n g cao ciing vdi cac hoat ddng hdp tac kinh te, d i u tif md rdng va thi trifdng qud'c te ngay cang difdc cung cd', t a n g eUdng Nhd chinh tri dn dinh, an ninh -qud'c phdng dam bao, Viet Nam da tao mdi trifdng t h u a n ldi de t h u hiit m a n h d i u tif nifdc ngoai Cd the ndi ea the va liic ciia Viet Nam da m a n h len r a t nhieu so vdi nhiing n a m trifdc Ke tif khi b i t dau cdng cuoc ddi mdi, den nay Viet Nam da dat dUde nhieu t h a n h tiiu kinh te het siic to ldn, duy tri diidc tdc do t a n g trifdng eao difde ca the gidi thifa n h a n
Trong suy thoai k i n h te toan cau, nen kinh te nifdc ta vdi do md ldn, phu thude khdng nhd vao dau tif nUdc ngoai da chiu nhieu tac ddng va nhiing khd khan, thaeh thiic dUdc dii b i o v i n cdn gay g i t Net ndi bat trong a n h hudng k h u n g hoang tai chinh toan c l u la t a n g trifdng kinh te suy giam; h a u het cae n g a n h san xuat va dich
vu chu yeu deu bi giam siit, thi trifdng xuat k h a u t h u hep, dau tif nifdc ngoai va ngudn ngoai hdi t h u ve cd nhieu han che Ben canh nhiing sut giam nay, nhieu khd
k h a n ndi tai vdn cd ciia nen kinh te v i n cham difdc k h i c phuc
Trang 6[TOI NGHIEN Giio • TRAP DDI xu THf TOAN CAU VA GIAI PHAP PHAT TRI^N OAT Nl/dC GIAI £X)AN 2010-2025
P h a n tich thiic t r a n g k i n h te'-xa hdi
nhiing n a m gan day cho thay, d a u tif
trong nifdc va ciia nifdc ngoai gia t a n g da
tao da t a n g trifdng m a n h ve k i n h te,
nhifng do nen k i n h te chifa cd chuyen bien
dang ke ve n a n g s u a t lao ddng, n a n g liic
canh t r a n h va hieu qua t h a p , n e n k i n h te
p h a t trien chifa ben viing; hieu qua d a u tif
nhieu n a m difdc d a n h gia vao loai t h a p
n h a t trong k h u viic
Ngudn liic quy n h a t diidc coi trong ngay
nay la nhdn liic, lai chifa p h a t h u y cd hieu
qua; tdi nguyen ddt dai sit d u n g m a n h
miin, dat canh t i e giam siit va d a n g cd xu
hiidng bi huy hoai Tdi nguyen bien, mot
khu viic cd y nghia sinh tii dd'i vdi van
menh dat nifdc, song difdng nhif cdn bi
lang quen
Sau hdn 20 n a m ddi mdi, mac dii cd
nhieu t h a n h tiiu k i n h te to ldn, nhifng
GDP theo dau ngifdi hien n a y van t h a p va
cdn n i m d khoang each k h a xa so vdi cac
nifdc trong khu viic, chUa b i n g 1/2 so vdi
Indonesia, difdi 1/3 T h a i Lan Muc tieu
hoan t h a n h sii nghiep cdng nghiep hoa
theo hifdng hien dai vao n a m 2020 van cdn
kha xa, trong khi thdi gian cdn lai khdng
nhi^u Bao cao Phdt trien Viet Nam 2009
cUa Ngdn hdng Thd gidi (WB) chi ra, cho
dii Viet Nam dat difdc miic t a n g trifdng
cao trong thdi gian dai, nhiing dang cdn
khoang each k h a xa so vdi cac niidc trong
khu viic; bi t u t h a u ve k i n h te tdi 51 n a m
so vdi Indonesia, 95 n a m so vdi Thai L a n
va 158 n a m so vdi Singapore Theo Diin
ddn Kinh te the gidi, h a u h e t cac tieu chi
canh t r a n h trong k i n h doanh ciia Viet
Nam deu d difdi miic t r u n g binh (thap hdn
5 trong t h a n g diem 10) Cdn theo Tdchirc
Minh bach qudc te, Viet N a m difdc xep d
2,6/10 diem n a m 2007 va 2,7/10 diem
trong n a m 2008 Chi so' n a y cho thay,
t h a m nhiing nifdc t a v i n d a n g d miic r a t
cao ( T h a n h Phifdng va T h a n h Y 2009)
Thiic tien hien nay cho thay, ldi t h e
p h a t trien cua Viet N a m thdi gian qua,
chu yeu diia tren ldi the lao dpng re vd
khai thdc tdi nguyen, dd la phiidng thiic phdt trien theo chieu rpng (Extensive Development) d a n g d a n tdi ngifdng khdng
t h e vifdt qua De d a m bao toe do va n a n g liic c a n h t r a n h ciia minh, Viet N a m tat yeu p h a i chuyen q u a mot phifdng thiic
phdt trien mdi theo chiiu sdu (Intensive Development) diia t r e n n e n s a n x u a t t h a m
dung cdng nghe va ky t h u a t , p h a t huy td'i
da nhiing ldi t h e cd b a n m a it niidc cd the
s a n h difdc ve ngudn liic con ngiidi, nong nghiep chdu A nhiet ddi gid miia vd hdn mot niia bien gidi qudc gia Id bien cd bao quanh
Trong mot "The gidi phdng, todn the gidi thdch thiic mpt ngiidi vd mpt ngiidi cd the coi cd the gidi Id dd'i tdc cita minh",
tudi tho ciia s a n p h a m ngay mot n g i n , thi
viec chuyen s a n g phifdng thiic phdt trien theo chiiu sdu, da trd t h a n h ddi hdi biic
bach C h a m chuyen ddi s a n g phifdng thCfc
sdn xudt theo chiiu sdu, diia t r e n cac Idi
the, de tien n h a n h r a bien, k h a i thac va lam chii bien khdi cd t h e lam Id bifdc ciia
ca d a n toe t r o n g mot t h e gidi dang phat trien n h a n h , m a ngifdi N h a t da tiing nhin
n h a n khdng p h a i "Sai mot ly, di mpt ddm", ma la "Sai mpt ly, di mpt ddi"
Vdi phifdng thiic p h a t t r i e n hien nay, ve thiic chat, n e n k i n h te Viet N a m dang di theo eon difdng p h a t t r i e n theo chieu rong Mot khi phifdng thiic p h a t t r i e n theo chieu rong tien den gidi h a n ciia nd, thi tdc do
p h a t trien bi giam siit n h a n h va nen kinh
te se chiu n h i e u tac dong tieu ciic Neu khdng n h a n thiic difdc dieu n a y de cd bien
p h a p dd'i phd kip thdi, 10 n a m tdi, kinh te Viet N a m se gap p h a i n h i e u n a n giai Da den Iiic k i n h te Viet N a m p h a i vUdn len
t a m cao mdi de cd k h a n a n g c a n h t r a n h difdc vdi cac nifdc t r o n g k h u viic va tren
t h e gidi Hifdng vao p h a t t r i e n k i n h te dat nifdc mot each dn d i n h va b e n vflng, moi
bo, n g a n h va tiing dia phifdng can xac dinh difdc nhiing Idi t h e c a n h t r a n h , the
m a n h cua rieng m i n h L a u nay, ci nifdc ta cdn tdn t a i mot nghjch ly la dia phifdng,
n g a n h va Bo nao ciing deu xay diing chien
QUAN Lt KINH T£
S(f29ni-i-12/2009)
Trang 7xu THf TOAN CAU VA GIAI PHAP PHAT TRif N OAT Nl/dC GIAI DOAN 2010-2025 NGHIEN ClJfU - TRAP DPI [ J j ^ ^ J
lifdc p h a t trien Nhifng t r e n thiic te, do
chifa cd t i m n h i n xa ciing nhif thieu
nhiing dii bao ve p h a t trien khoa hoe &
cdng nghe, nen t h u d n g m a n g tinh p h a n
tan, khdng gan ket vdi n h a u vi muc tieu
phat trien chung cua ca qud'c gia Den nay,
n h a n thUe ve t r i n h do p h a t trien cdng
nghiep, cdng nghe, k h a n a n g canh qud'c
gia ciia Viet N a m t r e n quy md the gidi va
khu vUc van d a n g cdn la bai toan n a n giai
ddi vdi nen kinh te
De chan hUng d a t nUde theo hUdng dan
gilu, nUdc m a n h , dat dUde muc tieu
KT-XH trong thien nien ky mdi thi nhiing ndi
dung ldn ciia p h a t trien k i n h te c i n phai
tap t r u n g vao viec bien nUdc t a trd t h a n h :
Ciidng qudc sdn xudt sdn pham nong
nghiep nhiet ddi cho the gidi; ciidng qudc
kinh te bien, vd Id ciidng qudc vi ngudn
nhdn liic cong nghe thdng tin (CNTT) co
ky ndng cao
2.1 Mpt ciidng qudc sdn xudt sdn
pham nong nghiep nhiet ddi
Trong the gidi ngay cang md rdng, tif
tiem n a n g va ldi the nhiet ddi, dUdc thien
nhien Uu dai ve tai nguyen sinh thai vdi
nhieu san p h a m m a n g t i n h dac thii, Viet
Nam hoan toan cd the liia chon ndng
nghiep lam mue tieu de trd t h a n h mot
trong nhiing nUdc x u a t k h a u ndng san
hang dau the gidi Mac dau chi mdi gia
nhap thi trUdng t h e gidi trong khoang thdi
gian khdng dai, nhUng kim ngach xuat
kh^u ndng lam thiiy san eua nUde ta da
lien tue gia tang Gan day da dat 20 ty
USD/nam va neu t a p t r u n g p h a t trien
manh theo hudng nay, nhieu dii bao cho
r i n g , Viet N a m cd the dat t r e n 40 ty
USD/nam trong mot thdi gian khdng xa
Tiem n a n g x u a t k h a u cd nhieu, nhiing
mat h a n g cd t h e vUdn len d i n dau the gidi
cd the la liia gao, thiiy san, ca phe, cao su,
rau qua, h a t dieu va s a n p h a m gd
Lua gao: Nhin t r e n b a n dd the gidi, dd
dang n h a n thay, Viet N a m da trd t h a n h
cUdng qud'c lUdng thiic thii hai Vdi truyen
thd'ng van minh liia nUde cd lich sU va
kinh nghiem tif h a n g nghin nam, Viet Nam hoan toan cd the xuat k h a u cdng nghe trdng liia cho nhieu nUde tren the gidi, n h a t la cac nUdc d chau Phi va My La tinh Trong dieu kien an ninh lUdng thiic
bi de doa, k h a n a n g nay hoan toan hien thiic, bdi Viet N a m trdng dUde liia q u a n h
n a m vdi nhieu gidng n a n g suat cao va thdi gian sinh trUdng n g i n (dUdi 100 ngay) Liia gao Viet N a m cd the la giai dap tdt de giai quyet n a n ddi, ddi khi k h a trien mien
d nhieu nUde, dac biet la d chau Phi
Cd phe: Sau Brazil, ea phe Viet Nam
dUdc ca the gidi biet den la mot cUdng qud'c x u a t k h a u ThUdng hieu Ca phe Viet ngay cang dUdc k h a n g dinh d d i n g cap eao t r e n thi trUdng qud'c te Hien nay,
ca phe Viet N a m da xuat k h a u den 40 nUdc va viing l a n h thd
Cao su: Cay cao su Hevea Brasiliensis
ngudn gdc tif luu viic sdng Amazon (Nam My), da cd m a t d Viet Nam tii nam 1897; den nay, dUde md rong trdng tren dia ban
ca nUdc Theo hUdng p h a t trien da nganh,
n h i m sU dung triet de nguyen lieu s i n cd, gia t a n g g i i tri san p h a m va nhiing ldi the tiem nang; Tap doan Cdng nghiep Cao su Viet Nam dii tinh den n a m 2015 se dUa dien tich cao su len 50 van ha Hien nay, cao su Viet N a m diing thii 3 the' gidi, dang
cd nhieu hiia hen de md rong thi trUdng tieu t h u den nhieu nUde t r e n the gidi va trong k h u viic
Hat diiu: Viet N a m da vUdt qua An Do,
cUdng qud'c Dieu, de trd t h a n h qud'c gia dan dau the gidi ve x u a t khau Chat lUdng
n h a n dieu Viet N a m eiing dUdc coi la sd' 1, thdm ngon hdn h i n n h a n dieu An Do, Brazil hay Tanzania Thi trUdng Dieu Viet N a m tap t r u n g d mot so' nUde, trong
dd, Hoa Ky chiem 40%, Trung Qud'c 20%, Chau Au 20%
Hd tieu: La mot trong nhiing qud'c gia
san xuat h a n g d i u , Theo Hiep hoi Hd tieu Viet Nam (VPA), quy 1/2009 VN da xuat
k h a u dUde 27.075 t a n h a t tieu vdi kim ngach 65,9 trieu USD, cao n h a t trong hdn
Stf29(1U12/2009)
Trang 8[TOI NGHIEN CIA) - TRAD DOI xu THf TOAN CAU VA GIAI PHAP PHAT TRif N DAT NLTOC GIAI DOAN 2010-2025
hai nam qua Ve khdi lUdng, x u a t k h a u hd
tieu da tang 11.506 t a n so vdi cung ky
2008
Thuy sdn: Trong 10 n a m vifa qua, x u a t
k h a u thuy san cua Viet N a m cd bUdc p h a t
trien d l y an tUdng TU chd khdng cd ten,
den nay thuy san Viet N a m da diing vao
nhdm 10 nUde cd gia tri kim ngach x u a t
khau ldn n h a t the gidi
Lam sdn: Viet N a m da trd t h a n h mot
trong 5 nUde dat kim ngach x u a t k h a u
mat hang dd gd, tU 3 den 5 ty USD h a n g
nam
Ngoai nhiing nong s a n d a t k i m ngach
xuat k h a u cao, niicic t a con co nhieu nong
san xuat k h a u khac p h u hdp vdi nhiing
nUct on dcd trong miia dong l a n h nhif rau,
cu qua, che la cac m a t h a n g d a n g p h a t
trien vcd toe do cao
La mot nUde ndng nghiep nhiet ddi, vdi
hdn 71%) cU dan lam ndng nghiep; vdi ban
chat c i n cu chiu khd va dUdc thien nhien
Uu dai, Viet Nam da h i n h t h a n h dUdc
nhieu vung kinh te sinh thai tif Tay
Nguyen den Ddng Bang sdng Ciiu Long,
Ddng Bang sdng Hdng va tdi day la Tay
Bae va vung ven bien Tuy nhien, nhin
chung san pham ndng nghiep lam r a v i n
la nguyen heu thd, gia tri gia t a n g t h a p ,
chUa ed thUdng hieu m a n h va thieu sUc
canh t r a n h vdi san p h a m cung loai cua
Thai Lan va Trung Qudc
Van de quan trong anh hUdng den chat
lUdng ndng san xuat k h a u la gid'ng, cdng
nghe sau thu hoach va che bie'n Ddi vdi
Ilia gao, tdn t h a t sau t h u hoach thUdng tif
9 den 17%, t h a m chi 20-30%; nghia la m a t
khoang 3.000 ty ddng h a n g nam Trong
san xuat r a u qua, ca nUdc da cd tren
600.000 ha vdi san lUdng 4-5 t r i e u
tan/nam nhifng n a n g liic che bien chi dat
chUng 2%) Do san p h a m khdng qua che
bien, tieu thu khdng kip thdi, gia t h a p nen
t h u n h a p giam siit tii 15 den 30%)
TU thiic t r a n g hien nay, de cd the trd
t h a n h cUdng qud'c cung cap ndng san cho
the gidi thi khoa hoc va cdng nghe phai giii vai trd t r u n g t a m Chien lUde khoa hoc cdng nghe ndng nghiep c i n t a p t r u n g tao
nhUng dot bien ve Gid'ng vd Cdng nghe che bien sau thu hoach Dieu n a j ' chi cd the
lam tdt k h i cd cd che chinh sach, che do thich hdp n h a m t h u hiit chuyen gia, nha ndng hoc trong, ngoai nUdc va n h a t la
k h u y e n khich cac d o a n h nghiep dau tU cdng siic va tri t u e vao linh viic nay
2.2 Trd thdnh ciidng qud'c ve kinh te bien
La mot nUdc n h i e t ddi gid miia, Viet
N a m cd bd bien dai hdn 3126 km, them luc dia rong vdi h a n g n g a n dao giau ngudn ldi
t h u y hai san, d a u md, k h o a n g san, nguyen lieu hydrat, mudi, Cimg vdi tai nguyen bien dao la he thd'ng cang bien nUdc sau, nhieu vinh va bai bien ndi tieng Doe theo
bd bien chay dai cdn biet bao bai cat dep,
cd the xay diing t h a n h nhUng t r u n g tam
du lich, nghi dUdng, cac resort, bai t i m
m a n g t a m qud'c te Tai nguyen va the
m a n h bien hien cd cho phep chiing ta
k h a n g dinh, Viet N a m cd nhieu t h u a n ldi
de trd t h a n h mot t r o n g nhiing qud'c gia
m a n h ve k i n h te te bien
Nhin vao b a n d.o t h e gidi cd the thay,
neu cd mot con k e n h dao, kieu k e n h dao
P a n a m a hay k e n h Suy-e n i m giiia Thai Lan va Malaysia, t h i dao Phii Qud'c cd the thay the Singapo trd t h a n h T r u n g t a m ldn vdi n a n g liic nhU cang A m s t e r d a m (Ha Lan) Khi dd, nUdc t a se trd t h a n h mot
t r u n g t a m t r u n g chuyen vdi dung lUdng
h a n g hoa vd cimg to ldn, Lich sii phat trien ciia cac t h a n h phd' cang t h e gidi giiip cho chiing t a n h i n n h a n , xet ve vi tri hang hai thi khdng ndi nao td't hdn vinh Van Phong ciia Viet N a m Cac t h a n h pho cang ndi t i e n g t h e gidi nhU Chicago,
A m s t e r d a m hay O s a k a trong giai doan dau deu la nhUng d a u t a u k i n h te cua My,
Ha L a n va N h a t Ban Ciing vdi sii trdi day cua nen k i n h te chau A, vdi vi tri cua minh, nhieu ludng h a n g cd the se tii
T r u n g Qud'c, An Do h a y T h a i Lan,
OUAN LY KINH TE
sa 29 (11f 12/2009)
Trang 9XU THE TOAN CAU VA GlAl PHAP PHAT TRif N DAT NUOC GIAI DOAN 2010-2025 NGHIEN CIJIJ - TRAO DPI Q ^ ^ j J
Campuchia, Lao di qua Viet N a m de den
vdi the gidi va ngUdc lai Day la cd hdi de
dich vu cang bien cd dUdc nhiing ngudn
thu to ldn Vdi sii p h a t trien n h a n h ehdng
ciia n g a n h cdng nghiep ddng t i u , chiing ta
tin rang, Viet N a m du sUc va cd the chiem
linh dUdc thi p h a n cao trong dich vu cang
bien, eiing nhU v a n tai bien
Khoa hoc cdng nghe bien cua Viet Nam
hien cdn non tre, ed the ndi la sd khai; so'
lieu dieu t r a ed b a n chUa nhieu, thieu
ddng bd, t a n m a n Vi vay, can xay diing
nganh khoa hoc nay de cd hieu biet cd ban
ve dieu kien tii nhien, cap n h a t dUdc
nhUng hieu biet theo bien ddi khi hau
Phat trien n g a n h khoa hoe nghien cUu
bien se gdp tieng ndi vao quy hoach khdng
gian cac vung duyen hai, can duyen, dac
biet la quy hoach he thd'ng cang bien sao
cho phu hdp vdi quy luat tU nhien Trong
kinh te bien can chii trong xay diing va
phat trien cac n g a n h chii dao; can tap
trung vao cac k h a u nhU: Dieu t r a khao
sat, t h a m dd tai nguyen bien va dai
dUdng; Khai thac va che bien hai san;
Tham dd va khai thac d i u khi; Tham dd
va khai thac khoang san; Du lich bien;
Dich vu cang bien va khdng gian bien;
Cdng nghiep t a u t h u y va van tai bien
Hoat dong KH&CN can hudng vao van
dung cdng nghe cao trong h a n g loat cac
hoat ddng t h a m dd va k h a i thac nhU: Cdng
nghe khai thac n a n g lUdng bien; Cdng
nghe t h a m dd va k h a i t h i c hai san xa bd;
Cdng nghe sinh vat bien, nghien cUu chii
yeu de tao r a cac gid'ng nudi trdng mdi Uu
viet, cac gidng ed t i n h dot pha de day
manh qua t r i n h nudi trdng; Cdng nghe
khai thac cac loai dUde pham; nghien cUu
vai trd, tap tinh t i n h tii nhien cua sinh vat
bien; tii sinh vat bien riit ra nhUng k h a n g
khuan, chat ddc k h i n g benh, k h a n g khdi
u, ehdng gia hoa, tao nen nhUng dUde
pham mdi va thiic p h a m dUdng sinh ed
chat lUdng cao; C i c cdng nghe t h a m dd
khai thac tai nguyen khoang san d l y bien
ve dau khi, kim loai day bien; Cdng nghe
tdng hdp tai nguyen bien, trong dd can chu
y den cdng nghe lam n h a t nUdc bien, cdng nghe tach, riit cac nguyen td': K, Br, Li, U tii nUdc bien De t a n g cUdng kha n a n g dii bao ve mdi trUdng bien, de phdng thien tai, n a n g eao n a n g liie bao ve mdi trUdng bien phai q u a n t a m nhieu hdn nUa den Cdng nghe t h a m dd mdi trUdng bien Ddng thdi vdi nhUng qua t r i n h nay, c i n cd sU
d i u tu, phdi hdp, nghien cUu mot each toan dien de tao t h a n h sUc m a n h tdng hdp, ket hdp chat che ca qudc phdng vdi khoa hoc cdng nghe, kinh te, chinh tri t r e n bien Qud'c phdng bien m a n h se la chd diia eho ba con ngU dan va cae hoat ddng kinh te-xa hdi t r e n vung bien, dao cua dat nUdc Lich sii dUdng bien the gidi cho thay, kinh te bien ludn la n g a n h miii nhon; trong dd cang bien ed vai trd chu dao Ndi nao cd cang, ndi dd se la t h a n h phd' vdi kinh te cdng nghiep va giao thUdng phat trien Mac du Viet Nam cd mot so cang
t i m cd khu viic va the gidi, nhUng tren thiic te, nUdc ta van chUa cd ndi nao nao tiep n h a n dUdc t a u trong tai 50.000DWT hoac t a u container sife chd 3000TEUs Vdi nhUng cang hien cd, chung ta dang cdn lac
h a u so vdi mot sd nUdc trong khu viic Do vay, xay diing va p h a t trien he thd'ng cang bien qud'c gia viing m a n h se cd vai trd to ldn va quyet dinh den sU p h a t trien ciia dat nUdc
De dap iing dUde tdc do phat trien eao trong qua t r i n h tien ra bien ldn, e I n phai ndi rdng t i m n h i n quy hoach he thd'ng cang bien Viet Nam Tieu chi thdi gian de quy hoach cho he thd'ng cang bien qud'c gia khdng nen gidi h a n 20 nam, ma phai rdng den 50 n a m , hoac dai hdn nUa, n h i m tao
t h u a n ldi cho kinh te bien Viet Nam theo kip va phii hdp vdi sii p h a t trien thdi dai Ngoai viec d a n g h i n h t h a n h 5 cang
con-t a i n e r cd quy md ddn con-t a u c o n con-t a i n e r 6000TEUS cap ben vao nam 2009- 2010, can tap t r u n g day m a n h dau tU xay difng cang Van Phong t h a n h cang t r u n g chuyen
t a m cd the gidi bao gdm ea cang container, cang tdng hdp, cang chuyen tai nhien lieu
SA 29(11*12/2009) OUAN LY KINH TE
Trang 10[TOI NGHIEN Cljfl) - TRAP DPI xu
Nghi quyet ve "Chien lUdc bien Viet Nam
den nam 2020" cua BCHTU" Dang lan thif 4
khoa X da xac dinh.- "NUdc ta phdi trd thdnh
qudc gia manh ve bien, Idm gidu tii bien,
tren cd sd phdt huy mpi tiim ndng tii bien,
phdt trien todn dien cdc ngdnh nghi bien vdi
cd cdu phong phu, hien dqi, tao ra tdc dp
phdt trim nhanh, bin vUng, hieu qud cao vdi
tdm nhin ddi han" Dinh hUdng ehien lUde
ddng thdi cung la quan diem chi dao ddi vdi
sU nghiep phat trien kinh te bien Viet Nam
la: "Xdy diing vd phdt trien todn dien cdc
linh viic kinh te, xd hpi, khoa hpc&cong
nghe, tdng ciidng cdng cd qudc phbng, an
ninh, Idm cho ddt niidc gidu manh tii bien,
bdo ve moi triidng bien Phdn ddu den ndm
2020, kinh te'tren bien vd ven bien dong gop
khodng 53-55% tdng GDP cda cd niidc "
(Dang CSVN 2007)
Nhan manh noi dung eiia dinh hUdng
phat trien tren day, nhieu nha phan tich eho
r i n g , neu "Phdt trien niidc ta thdnh ciidng
qudc nong nghiep vd ciidng qudc kinh te bien
cua the gidi" thi moi van de ve phat trien dat
nUdc deu da tap trung vao khu viic chiem
hdn 80% dan sd ca nUde vdi trong sd ldn la
ndng dan Neu lam tdt 2 ndi dung nay,
chiing ta se giai quyet cd ban van de an sinh
xa hoi, giai quyet dUde ca 3 van de ldn, mang
tinh sd'ng cdn ma toan the gidi dang het sife
quan tam, dd la: An ninh liidng thiic; An
ninh ndng lupng vd An ninh moi triidng
Dam bao dUde nhiing van de an ninh neu
tren, eiing la da giai quyet dUdc nhUng muc
tieu neu trong chien lUdc phat trien ben
viing trong nhiing thap ky tdi cua qud'c gia
2.3 Trd thdnh ciidng qudc nhdn liic cong
nghe thdng tin (CNTT) cd ky ndng cao
Trong t i m nhin dai h a n den n a m 2020,
cdng nghe thdng tin dUde xac dinh la linh
viic ndng cdt de chuyen ddi cd eau k i n h
te-xa hdi, dUa dat nUde trd t h a n h qud'c gia
tien tien ve phat trien kinh te tri thifc va
xa hdi thdng tin Thiic te p h a t trien
KT-XH ciing eho thay, nUde ta dang cd cd hdi
de phat trien n g a n h cdng nghe nay Viet
Nam diing thU 10 trong 50 nUdc cd sife t h u
hiit ldn n h a t d a u tU nUdc ngoai vao cdng nghe thdng tin Ciing vdi t a n g trUcing kinh
te, sii gia t a n g n h a n h chdng cac doanh nghiep CNTT va v i i n t h d n g ldn mcl ra nhieu cd hdi mdi Vdi quyet dinh d a u tU gan 10 ty USD vao t h i e t ke, s a n x u a t vi mach, may t i n h , dien thoai di dong, thiet
bi v i i n thdng cua 5 cdng ty ldn (Intel, Renesas, Campal, S a m s u n g va Foxcon) de den n a m 2012 d a t d o a n h t h u 30 ty USD (ehiem 1/3 G D P cua Viet N a m hien nay) thi viec lam t r o n g cdng n g h e t h d n g tin vd ciing to ldn, nhUng t h i e u h u t nghiem trong cua cac cdng ty h a n g d a u nay lai la ngudn n h a n liic cd ky n a n g l a n h nghe Viec md rdng d a u tU cua cac cdng ty CNTT xuyen qud'c gia k h i e n n h u eau n h a n liic cd
t r i n h do chuyen nghiep cao d nUde sd tai lai cang trd n e n bife xiic; day la d i u ra
q u a n trong eua viec dao tao lao dong cdng nghe t h d n g tin
La n g a n h cd h a m lUdng chat xam ket tinh ldn, lao ddng cdng n g h e thdng tin tao
n a n g s u a t lao ddng cao gap nhieu l l n so vdi nhieu n g a n h k i n h te k h a c Tuy nhien, neu so' lUdng ngUdi l a m t r o n g n g a n h nay it thi khdng cd t i e d u n g nhU ky vong Vdi lan sdng d a u tU nUdc ngoai, nhieu tap
doan h a n g d i u t h e gidi Ao vao nUde ta, tao
thdi cd p h a t trien, nhUng mot khi thieu lao dong chat lUdng t h i thdi cd ciing se qua
di Chinh vi le nay, quyet t a m ciia Chinh
p h u Viet N a m la p h a i td chifc dao tao de
cd 1 trieu lao dong ky n a n g l a m viec trong linh vUc nay
Thue hien chUdng trinh phat trien va dao tao ky nang cdng nghe thdng tin theo tieu chuan Nhat Ban, nhieu trUdng Dai hoc trong nUdc da phd'i hdp dao tao va td chiic nhiing ky thi thi chung lay chifng chi cdng nghe thdng tin Nhat Ban Sd' lieu thd'ng ke tii nam 2005 den 2008 cho thay, sd'ngUdi dat tieu chuan cua Viet Nam dat 15,8%; rieng nam 2008 con so' nay len 17,8% trong khi Nhat Ban la 10,8% Thiic te nay giiip chiing
ta cd cd sd de dat niem tin vao ldp tre, vdi td chat Viet Nam, chae chan ho se cd dUdc nhiing dot pha trong tiep thu tien bo
OUAN LY KINH TE Sa29(11f12/2Q09)