tiểu luận kinh tế lượng FACTORS THAT AFFECT NUMBER OF SAME SEX MARRIAGE IN THE UNITED STATES

ABOUT THE TOPIC The history of same-sex marriage in the United States dates from the early 1970s, when the first lawsuits seeking legal recognition of same-sex relationships brought the

FOREIGN TRADE UNIVERSITY FACULTY OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS

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ECONOMETRICS REPORT

FACTORS THAT AFFECT NUMBER OF SAME-SEX MARRIAGE IN

THE UNITED STATES

Group 8 Class: K57 Japanese styled International Business

Vũ Thị Ba – 1810520154 Phạm Kim Ngân – 1810520208 Ngô Bảo Tâm – 1810520218 Instructor: Dr Từ Thuý Anh

Hanoi, 2019

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ABSTRACT

The 21st century has been witnessing many outstanding achievements and development in human history Together with the expansion of economy and the revolution digital technology, there has been a significant elevation of awareness towards human community, especially same-sex relationship In June 2015, the United State officially released approval on same-sex marriage, making great changes not only in the US, but also created groundbreaking events to all other countries in the world Therefore, our group does a research based on the topic “The factors affecting the number of same-sex marriage of United State in 2014”

Thanks to doing this research, partly, we can understand more deeply about the awareness community towards same-sex marriage and find out the solutions to help the same-sex couples have better lives

Our research has 3 parts:

Part 1: INTRODUCTION

There is an introduction of same-sex marriage and literature review to make sure that everyone partly understand and has an overview about the topic Furthermore, theoretical background, which illustrates the theories used in this research will also

be discussed

Part 2: CONTENT

This is the most important part of this research that points to capture and process data based on analytical methods of econometrics before creating the regression model of factors that affect the number of same-sex marriage of the US in the year

2014 In addition, the robustness check will be added to clarify the accuracy of this model in the following chapter

Part 3: SUMMARY

In the last part of this research, we will recap and evaluate the research According

to this evaluation, we will suggest some solutions to for futher discussion

As the final words, we are looking forward to your comments and recommendation about our research Due to lack of time and our own limit in specialized knowledge and skills, there must be some mistakes in our research, and your advice would be invaluable to all of us

 Determine what these factors are

 Analyze whether they are good or bad factors

 Suggest some solutions to improve situation if necessary and how

to use the result of the research effectively

 Find information on internet

 Use econometrics models and analyze data in Gretl and Excel

4 SAMPLE SIZE AND SAMPLE-CHOOSING METHOD

 Sample size: 50 observations

 Sample-choosing method: Collect data from researches that were carried out by many sources

I INTRODUCTION

1 ABOUT THE TOPIC

The history of same-sex marriage in the United States dates from the early 1970s, when the first lawsuits seeking legal recognition of same-sex relationships brought the question of civil marriage rights and benefits for same-sex couples to public attention though they proved unsuccessful In 1972, the now overturned Baker v Nelson saw the Supreme Court of the United States decline to become involved The issue became prominent from around 1993, when the Supreme Court

of Hawaii ruled in Baehr v Lewin that it was unconstitutional under the state constitution for the state to abridge marriage on the basis of sex That ruling led to federal and state actions to explicitly abridge marriage on the basis of sex in order

to prevent the marriages of same-sex couples from being recognized by law, the most prominent of which was the 1996 federal DOMA In 2003, the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court ruled in Goodridge v Department of Public Health that it was unconstitutional under the state constitution for the state to abridge marriage on the basis of sex From 2004 through to 2015, as the tide of public opinion continued

to move towards support of same-sex marriage, various state court rulings, state legislation, direct popular votes (referendums and initiatives), and federal court rulings established same-sex marriage in thirty-six of the fifty states

Same-sex marriage in the United States expanded from one state in 2004 to all fifty states in 2015 through various state court rulings, state legislation, direct popular votes, and federal court rulings Same-sex marriage is also referred to as gay marriage, while the political status in which the marriages of same-sex couples and the marriages of opposite-sex couples are recognized as equal by the law is referred

to as marriage equality The fifty states each have separate marriage laws, which must adhere to rulings by the Supreme Court of the United States that recognize

marriage as a fundamental right that is guaranteed by both the Due Process Clause and the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution, as first established in the 1967 landmark civil rights case of Loving v

Virginia

The first two decades of the 21st century saw same-sex marriage receive support from prominent figures in the African-American civil rights movement, including Coretta Scott King, John Lewis, Julian Bond, and Mildred Loving In May 2011, national public support for same-sex marriage rose above 50% for the first time In May 2012, the NAACP, the leading African-American civil rights organization, declared its support for same-sex marriage and stated that it is a civil right In June

2013, the Supreme Court of the United States struck down DOMA for violating the Fifth Amendment to the United States Constitution in the landmark civil rights case

of United States v Windsor, leading to federal recognition of same-sex marriage, with federal benefits for married couples connected to either the state of residence

or the state in which the marriage was solemnized By late 2014, same-sex marriage had become legal in states that contained more than 70% of the United States population In some jurisdictions legalization came through the action of state courts or the enactment of state legislation More frequently it came as the result of the decisions of federal courts In May 2015, national public support for same-sex marriage rose to 60% for the first time In June 2015, the Supreme Court ruled in the landmark civil rights case of Obergefell v Hodges that the fundamental right of same-sex couples to marry on the same terms and conditions as opposite-sex couples, with all the accompanying rights and responsibilities, is guaranteed by both the Due Process Clause and the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution

The most prominent supporters of same-sex marriage are human rights and civil rights organizations as well as the medical and scientific communities, while the most prominent opponents are religious groups The ruling of the Supreme Court in Obergefell occurred following decades of consistently rising national public support for same-sex marriage in the United States, with support continuing to rise thereafter

A study of nationwide data from January 1999 to December 2015 revealed that the establishment of same-sex marriage is associated with a significant reduction in the rate of attempted suicide among children, with the effect being concentrated among children of a minority sexual orientation, leading to approximately 134,000 fewer children attempting suicide each year in the United States

The United States of America is the most populous country in the world to have established same-sex marriage nationwide

2 HISTORY AND DEVELOPMENT

Civil rights campaigning in support of marriage without distinction as to sex

or sexual orientation began in the 1970s In 1972, the now overturned Baker v

Nelson saw the Supreme Court of the United States decline to become involved The issue became prominent from around 1993, when the Supreme Court of Hawaii ruled in Baehr v Lewin that it was unconstitutional under the state constitution for the state to abridge marriage on the basis of sex That ruling led to federal and state actions to explicitly abridge marriage on the basis of sex in order

to prevent the marriages of same-sex couples from being recognized by law, the most prominent of which was the 1996 federal DOMA In 2003, the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court ruled in Goodridge v Department of Public Health that it was unconstitutional under the state constitution for the state to abridge marriage on the basis of sex From 2004 through to 2015, as the tide of public opinion continued

to move towards support of same-sex marriage, various state court rulings, state

legislation, direct popular votes (referendums and initiatives), and federal court rulings established same-sex marriage in thirty-six of the fifty states The first legal same-sex marriage ceremony in the United States happened on February 12th, 2004, when the mayor of San Francisco, Gavin Newsom, ordered city hall to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples This decision resulted in the celebration of the first gay marriage in the United States

The first two decades of the 21st century saw same-sex marriage receiving support from prominent figures in the African-American civil rights movement, including Coretta Scott King, John Lewis, Julian Bond, and Mildred Loving On June 24, 2011, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo signed the state's Marriage Equality Act into law It took effect a month later In May 2011, national public support for same-sex marriage rose above 50% for the first time Washington Governor Christine Gregoire signed same-sex marriage legislation into law on February 13, 2012 Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley did the same on March 1

In May 2012, the NAACP, the leading African-American civil rights organization, declared its support for same-sex marriage and stated it as a civil right In June 2013, the Supreme Court of the United States struck down DOMA for violating the Fifth Amendment to the United States Constitution in the landmark civil rights case

of United States v Windsor, leading to federal recognition of same-sex marriage, with federal benefits for married couples connected to either the state of residence

or the state in which the marriage was solemnized In May 2015, national public support for same-sex marriage rose to 60% for the first time In June 2015, the Supreme Court ruled in the landmark civil rights case of Obergefell v Hodges that the fundamental right of same-sex couples to marry on the same terms and conditions as opposite-sex couples, with all the accompanying rights and

responsibilities, is guaranteed by both the Due Process Clause and the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution

3 PUBLIC OPINION

Public opinion of same-sex marriage in the United States of America by state/district/territory

According to the illustration above:

Majority support same-sex marriage — 80 to 89%

Majority support same-sex marriage — 70 to 79%

Majority support same-sex marriage — 60 to 69%

Majority support same-sex marriage — 50 to 59%

Plurality support same-sex marriage — 40 to 49%

Plurality oppose same-sex marriage — 40 to 49%

Majority oppose same-sex marriage — 50 to 59%

No recent polling data

Public opinion of same-sex marriage in the United States has changed rapidly since polling of the American people regarding the issue first began on an occasional basis in the 1980s and a regular basis in the 1990s, with consistent rising support while opposition has continually fallen National support rose above 50% for the first time in 2011 and has not gone below that mark since then National support rose

to 60% for the first time in 2015 and has not gone below that mark since then

Support continues to rise while opposition continues to fall each year, driven in large part by a significant generational gap in support

From 1988 to 2009, support for same-sex marriage went up between 1% and 1.5% per year and accelerated thereafter

On November 6 2012, Maine, Maryland, and Washington became first states to legalize same-sex marriage through popular vote Same-sex marriage has been legalized in the District of Columbia and 21 Native American tribal nations as well

In 2016, 83% of Americans aged 18–29 support same-sex marriage

In 2017, there is majority support for same-sex marriage in 44 states, plurality support in 4 states, plurality opposition in 1 state, and majority opposition in 1 state

II LITERATURE REVIEW

Same-sex marriage has became a debatable issue in most countries all over the world Up to now, there is a part of inquire about the same-sex marriage, they firstly examnined a parcel around same-sex couples with the reason of finding out what individuals think almost this issue, how numerous

of them have great sees around same-sex people, …

According to many sources, there are over 1,000 investigate in United States and other countries about same-sex marriage until now This is often a critical number which demonstrates for the significance and impact of this issue with our community

III THEORETICAL BACKGROUND

Same-sex marriage (also known as gay marriage) is the marriage of a same-sex couple, entered into in a civil or religious ceremony The term marriage equality refers to a political status in which the marriages of same-sex couples and the marriages of opposite-sex couples are recognized as equal

by the law

As of 2018, same-sex marriage is performed and recognized by law (nationwide or in some jurisdictions) in Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Colombia, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, Luxembourg, Malta, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Uruguay Also, Israel recognizes the relation unions of same-sex couples validly entered into in other countries Same-sex marriage is also due

to soon become performed and recognized by law in Austria, Costa Rica, and Taiwan Moreover, the Inter-American Court of Human Rights has issued a rulling which is expected to encourage recognition in lots of nations within the Americas

The introduction of same-sex marriage has varied by jurisdiction, being variously accomplished through legislative change to marriage law, an apex court ruling based on constitutional guarantees of equality, by recognition that

it is allowed by the existing marriage law, or by direct popular vote (via referenda and initiatives) The recognition of same-sex marriage is considered

to be a human right and a civil right as well as a political, social, and religious issue The most prominent supporters of same-sex marriage are human rights and civil rights organizations as well as the medical and scientific