impacts of the acid rain program on coal industry employment pdf

National Title IV Employment Impacts in Context Employment Changes in the Regions Most Alfected by Tile IV D, Programs to Assist Unemployed Coal Miners Ve_Litations of the Analysis VỊ..

ra

IMPACTS OF THE ACID RAIN PROGRAM ON COAL INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT

PA woul li sänoslejc TC CondltDgr pajet nanlgcngnt ni hết gỹ be dt si (suet

‘coal he opr

Table of Contents

1 Executive Summary

I, Purpose and Background

IL Projections of Changes in Labor Demand

A Overview of Methodology

8 Changes in Coal Demane as Projected by the IPM96 Analysis, Translation of Coal Demand into Labor Demand

IV Demand Changes in Context

A Historical Employment Levels and Trends

8 National Title IV Employment Impacts in Context Employment Changes in the Regions Most Alfected by Tile IV

D, Programs to Assist Unemployed Coal Miners Ve_Litations of the Analysis

VỊ References

APPENDIX A: Description ofthe 1996 Integrated Planning Med

ALI Analytical Overview

1.1 Macro Energy And Eeonomic Assumptions A.L2 Blectric Energy Cost And Performance Assumptions A 3 Pollution Control Performance And Cost Assumptions A2 References

APPENDIX B: Coal Use Projections With and Without Tile ÍV

APPENDIX C: Differences Between 1990/1892 and 1996 Analyses

C1 Analyses Considered

2 Indusey Changes Since The 1992 RIA

C.3 Comparisons OF Coal Dentand Projections

C4 Changes In Employment Impact Projections

C5 References

APPENDIX D: Results of Modeling and Analysis for 2000

APPENDIX E: List of Acronyors and Definitions

APPENDIX F: Peer Review Process

| Executive Summary

‘This sepore akleses the impacts of dhe Acid

‘ea Program created under Tale 1V of the Clea

Air Act Ameniiments of 1990) on coal mining

femployanet, It evi the ess of stay thst

‘vas orginally conduct in 1990, which con

pated the economic inipacts ofthe aid ta po

‘sion of sever legilaive senaros being com

sidered at the time, The euler sly projected

that Title TV could bave a soon

sect on

«oa ining employment le prec 3 pros fos

9 13,000-16,00 coal mine jo sls! by te year

200 aso esl of Tile

‘The cureot study revisits the original 1990 analy

sis andthe differences inthe els ar gle sob

Sts The 2000 ep projets that by the year

2010, Tile V af the Clea Air Aet could eval in

2 gros loss of approximately 7,700 job sles, oF half the loss project hy the 1990 sad

“The net lose would he ony 4100 coal miner joh slots because 3600 now jo stots would he crea

fs Th extent to which Tile IV aff col mia Ing employment, specifically job slots, is the focus ofthis paper

“Those changes should be considered within the comext of historical treads in coal mini

‘employment Employment for coal miners over Che ast 30 years peaked in 1078 at approximately 250,000 workers and has steadily declined ins Exhibit 1: Job Slot Changes In the Mining Sector: Coal Mining Employment Changes With and

‘without The Acid Rain Program

—"

rine decreas a produetivity improvements

and other economic fats rode the need for

lage oumbers of mers 1990, the number of

coal workers fell to 130.0 By 2010, approx:

mately $0,000 eal mince jabs are projected to

remain, Ninety-five percent of the decline (ver

75,000 job is expected to bed o productivity

ins, and ony five potent of the Toss in jobs

(4.100) is expo to be atributable fo Tite IV

Mose percentages ace more dramatic compazed

te the peok of eo mining employment in 197,

where 58 percent of the projected job oss

totwcen 1978 and 2010 is relaed to productivity

ins and only to percent ofthe at decrease in

coal miner jb slot is due to Ti TY,

TMs analysis fs complicated by changes in the

maa for ahor in the coal industry, resing

fron factors uncle to Tite FV Worker pene

tivity improvements and the inccasing share of

Proueton fom strip mining due © increased

subsiutsbty of coal types have allowe the

Aleman for coal tobe sated with fewer week

ss, These diferences in proudly ste arose

DF the eitferenees in mie types ad the die

fences in the Kinds of technologies ase in each

tine type Regional ifs of coal production

result in detested labor requirements, or miner

job sot

Concerns over the elfets of Title IV on cal

sployiment sem fom finite the Acid Rain

Param places the cisions of sur dioxide

(604) especially those emissions from the cle

tue power industry The Acid Raia Progra i

td sot half the nghe of tons plants would emit

{4 the uber of tons of SO, that ae em

without Tile 1V° tits, To comply with the

‘missions limits mandated by Tite I, some util

cd the typeof coal tha ws used white

‘thers installed contol technologies, The sith

by atiities to loweesultrenals ea reduce the demand for high slo cal ap he workers who

‘nine it The employment cansequsness of Tite 1V compliance decisions ar derived largely fro

"`

to have differen vels of sulfur in their coals

Coal found west ofthe Misisipp for example,

fs generally loser in slur tha col fou in he Mived or the Appalachians, Within the Appalachians, sulfur cootent vaiex; nonhem

‘Appalachian coal tends to have a higher sulfur foment than eential oF southens Appalachian val Likewise, she sulfur coatt of Mester

val also tes wo vary somesta bu ii prim

Hy bib in sb AS plant operators site {among vals base onsale conten Gi ation

to other characteristics such as estan moisture

‘sontet) in response to Tie TV heya increase

‘or decease the demand forte coal mined ia df= feremsepions of the couaty Inte, dems oe Ininers ia different tagions ssn inerstes oF doorease, These changes are further eomplicated

by theft hat th labor required o pace on

of coal ifs across te regions Thus, shifts 0 Tower sf col ca, in some cases, reduce the

‘et demand foc ier, eater than simply bling the tts of coal mined,

Te tess ofthis 20 report show thatthe Ait Rin Program fs fad 2 lite impacto coal employment and that the program's future Impacts on coal aang employment wil he eon sderably lower thn originally pedictd,

II Purpose and Background

This report reviews the impels of the US

Envioomental Protction Agencys (EPA) Acid

Rai Program, established under Tle 1 of te

1090 Clean AieAct Amendments om col sinins

‘employment! The estimated impacts are derived

fromm modeling eons condocted in 1996 to eat

imate the costs of ai regulations, By comparing

coal demand by region for 9 model rues, aly

‘ne of which tok int acon the SOs ection

Foard by Tile IV it was posible to calla

the broad egional shifts in coal production that

could be atte to Tie TV, Pratt ext

thats forthe exsorn and western potions of the

‘country were then sed 0 ansate these chan

in coal demand ito changes in oal industy

employment

“The weakdowe of coal supply eto resions i aot

suficiny detailed to cope all ofthe tae:

sional and rasta shift that ay be caused by

Tile IV Nonetheless, EPA considers the roa

covelisions of the analysis to be sound ‘The

repeat includes Title IV's impact oa the ruber of

‘ners js and hose dose jos shift beeen the

‘antrn and western U.S el production eepons

Future employinent impacts are expressed in

teems of incsemental chagges in "Job slos,

hich are define as the number of workers ned

ss to prosue the industy’s project oatpot of

foal at projected peactvity levels he analy

Sie focus on the extent a hich Title 1V rests

in fower cou mining job stots, rer than on Tide IV's impact on miner’ enplaynent Ax mining productivity increases aed demand for coal is

"ead, there wll he fer joh sls bit ot nee essary miner lay-offs if these chang

‘net tough retirement or voluntary jb changes Because the demand for coal miners is Bee changing signlicanly asa esl of facts unse~ Tate to Title 1, ne morta component of this report isto document the extnt 10 which coat

‘incr job slots woul he expected to decline in the absence ofthe Acid Rain Programmi inthe Taseline™ seenasio Comparing ineeemcntal fects of EPA progr ta this baseline rede

‘don inj slots shows the incremental effest of

can be

ss wll concontsing on jo slots can mask some tthe sects oft change i demand For nsonss

‘oul labor hous by minots could es while job Slots dctine, if thar were a increase inden for western coal ana deerease in demand for ester col Te changes ia job loss presented in {his report coald ave eon divide nt changes

‘caused by drops in coal detmand, sits oceghons Sith higher hourly productivity and ils to regions wit higher hours per work year, howe

2 nay ana uit eg hai ong rea ccd ak i

‘eden hecg mơ nh ave oto lets Fer tame, # miner rene te anna ae wasod por yea by 8 Pe

1

Lt ân analyis at c kvel detail woul bệ

1.3

The tcomes presente in this rept Bocas he

‘nual ouput porwr in the East and West lit

fry aout afator of four, while labor hours per

sour đi hy only about 20 person, ies clear

thatthe anal productivity dtferonces erween

stand West are do primarily ta the ferences

| output por miner per hour Furthermore,

hecase the estonal sift in coabuse ae ode

ater than the changes f tl coal production,

itis apparent that most of the changes in jo sats

te dâe tò te ntenegjoma dit

CConceios over the effects of Title 1V on cl

mployinent stem from the Kimi the Acid Rain

Program places on emissions of sult dioxide

{$0,) fom lilies, which wes snot 90 percent

ofthe col produced in 1996 (ELA, 198) Those

Tits seduce the demand fr bigh-slfareoal and

the workers who mine st Media repos have cited

jb Inses in the thousands due to restrictions

fenposed hy the Clean Ate Act Thy Nese York

Ties foe example, reported that coal mine

mployimeat i Iliais, Indians, Ohio,

Penytvania, Wests Kentocky, and norters

Wiest Vipinia plunged moee than 30 pesceat

betwen 1990 and 1936, While the change in

ployment is attbuted largely to attomstion,

the Clean Ai Act in general and the Acid Rain

PPmgram io pariewlar are alsa blamed hy the

‘media, pole groups and mining incest fr

the loss of nine jos i he hig sulfur areas of

the Ease Now York Tinos, 1996),

West Virginia and ober states producing igh

sulfr coal have eed identified as sulering

Severe employient loset asa retut of econ

rental policies, which include air regulations

however, pics tat fet laa ase, waste dis

posal, an minine moths can slo be important

{Loss of mii employment his effets not oaly

fon the miners but on other eplosces the

region, as these miner’ demand foe retail, enter

tainment and related services declines with the

lose of income Ax recently as 1999, the

Aesoeiual rest report that “limi on sll

Poflacion were imposed daring the 12 by the

Clean Air Act [subsequcady} decimating the

high sll cutis of northern West Viena, western Pennsylvania, Ohio, dana an lina

“This sept examines the validity af such employ rent Toss claims The Acid Rain Program wos developed pursuant to 8 mandate comesined in Tile IV ofthe Clean Air Net amended in 1990 Tile 1V ses two bow! goals for EPA to reduce

ci peciptaion Fis, $0; emissions ane 20 he reused by 10 milion Tons por year bolo the Tevel in 1380, Second, NOx emissions afew be

ut Gin combination sth repulsion’ from other Tiles of the Clean Air Act, including Tide M which affects mobile sources) by 2 milion tons por yoarholow the 1980 level, Almost al of Tite IW’sS0, ant NOs reductions are to he mide from, coal fred poster pants operated by wis,

‘iiieney Thus the NOx progtam does not dis- {courage the use o any patculae type of al at

‘wail have minimal eects on tho toi my sol

“ile 1s SO: program, on the other band, cowl

SE cause a sipnficaat increase in the

‘os orate im búm high sulfite coals The program opetaos by distributing authonzatons 19 fei 80, called allowances, tthe owners of os

‘uel fred power plans that were in operation by 1995 Ta be nernited to emit $0, pant own

cự ams hold allowances for ca ton emit fiom & plant, the owner must suseador one alostanee Thos, the Aet contol the number of fons tha ae emitted by fniting the number of allowances thal are distibted, By dstibating fewer allowances than the mimber of tons that plants woul emit without Ts 1V' limits, the

‘Ast caoses $0; emissions 40 go dovwn, This eduction in $0 emissions in tm, reduces the

ssscited slates that secure when $056 tras

formed inthe atmosphere an turns t9 earth a

Sc ain and dry acide deposition, Slits ane a

form of foe puriculate mater that adversely

afeek hunan bealth, visibility, the ecology of

Takes and stream an the aesthtis atl Grail

'y of bronze or marble structures and states

Though the Act controls the total aumber of

allowed not contol whic plate ill

mie 80s Insteat, EPA les the allowances that

fe disuibuted ciculate frely among power

Pans throug the marke Alowances may be

fold by plants that ar ab to reduce emissions

tough to be lef vith surphs allowances, and

may he bought by plants that need moze

allowances than their allocation 10 cover thei

“nisions Uses may alse bank allowances for

“du se oF sale The fexiiliy otoduced by

the allowance enarket has important inl

for eoal use n that i cps up many more com

place options for ulti, Rather than selcting

‘nly smng contol options tha meet spatiale

tmssions imi foreach stack, plans can cones

to switch © lover sulfir cou, buy allowances,

fr use hanked allowances, Unites may also

thoose to installa scrubber dat might be exp

sive install and operate, bt might allo plan

tw overcontol emissions” Ifa plant's allowances

ssceed is emissions he exes allowances may

he solo banked, The system also establishes

ationvide marginal price for SO, reduetons,

shal 40 the market price for alswanees, The

emissions tion goals derived from a sat

tuy cáp of 895 lion ons of SO, enissions

from iis

Tile IV's $0; program is being inplemented in

two phases In Phase fh ook eft in 1395,

263 of the largest boilers i the eastern United

States with heh emission rates received snows

allowances For them to emit about 25 Tbs of SO,

Per som, Phase khích sarod 9 2000,

‘vith allowances sufficient to mit at Levels up to 1.2 Is, of SO, por avn fortes, ie et ine permits gure a fewer imi) Ths, bein ning in 2000, ther ix both an expansion inthe rmber of wiles affected by the lit and 3 fightoing of the aggtepate SO, emission Timi oorng that thee plants would have fewer SO; allowances in 2000, many operators covered by Phase I over-contolld emissions sod banked he exces llomwanees for ase ding the erly years

‘of Phase Il Because lies have been over-con- telling at Hanking excess allowances, the fall inyaet of Title IVs SO prneran on eal employ

‘ment is mo expected to be seen until bout 3

‘eae nto Phase I hy’ the year 2010), Fo this eason, this report concentrates on projections for the year 2010

‘ontioue 4 use coal dat high in slur if they puree ewoush allowances or choose to seu

‘On the eter nd, the allowance market proves

a cleat signal that the use of i

‘additonal cost, Therefore, powerplant oper tors are given 4 market incentive to switch to @ Tower sll fuel tinal snubhers in the socks to redvee SO: emission Hf the choice ix

na o seruh the plant eg continue to use or

‘ven switch to a bigher sulfr fk depending upon relative fel prices, bevause the seabher tehueee 8Ó, erisdoas đảm high sulfur coal tn Pass [of the prosram, 16 pants employing 27 Tilers chose to scrub, Because sul romovat rates were 9.987%, these fe unis accounted for

shout half of the SO, reductions in Phase T

(Ellerman et a, 2000

‘The employment consequences of those compli-

nee decisions are derived largely fom the fact

that different regions ofthe county tnd 1 have

Afferent eves of sulfur in their coals! Coal pro=

thetion regions ae defined ia this report ae

shown in Exhibits | and 2° Coal found west of

the Mississippi, forexample, i generally lower

sulfur than coal found in the Midwest oF the

Appalachians Within the Appalachians, slfor

content varies; northern Appalachian coal tends

to be higher in sulfur than central or southern

‘Appalachian col Ax plant operators switch

famong coals based on the coals slr levee in

‘espome to Tite TV, they ean increase decrease

‘he demand forthe coal ouput in ifferent egos

‘ofthe county I tara, demand for miners in df= erent regions can increase or decrease These changes are complicate by the fact that ferent sions need more of fever miners to produce a {om of coal Coal miner productivity is generally Iigher in some ofthe most important lowslfur

‘mining tepions in the West than in most of the

iah-slfr mins because the colin the

in thick layers close to the surface

‘Thus shifts to lower sulfur coal ean reduce the

‘et demand for miners, rather than simply siting the locus of coal mined,

Exhibit 1 Map of CoalProducing Regions in the United States

Saco: Ere Hemslon Adnrisi Họ/Anmts go chrdlcsslcelxeeeTpBơl

5 The moh Eb sho te ro ee PM, ich ay ch ein ed by EA

Exhibit2 Coal-Producing Stats By Region

Penaayha SORT OY | Pinay High Salfor

‘Nohorn West Virgina 5002250) | Primarily High Sulfur Cena ad ‘faba 25.96 (50) | Primary Law Salo

NI, EsiơnKemvay T8388 (12% | Primarily Low Sultor

Tenneses 5876105) | Primarily Law Salar Virginia BREE A | Primasiy Low Sul Souuhorn West Vega T3121 | Primary Cow Salfor Nines Tim SRST (6 | Primary Fgh Satur

Thang HIGH D) | Pinay Fish Saar Westen Root LGN CE) | Primarily High Suan Western Region Goal Mined in 1992 | Sulfur Content

An 1.334 0%) | Pinay Cow Sulfa ona TESI2 (1 | Pray Cow Salar

an SR (07) | High and Low Salar

Towa 280 05) | Priwaly High Sulfor Kass 365 (09) | Primarily High Satur Taian 3240 08) | High and Low Sul Misei 26 0%) | Binh Nạn vui Montana 38380 (4%) | Primaily Cow Sul New Metco 24549 25) | Primarily Gow Salt

Ne Dakota 3140) | Paarly Low Sul

‘Oklahoma 1.741108) | Primary High Sultur Tem SEO 65) | High and Low Sul Tia BIA (2) | Pinay Cow Nall Wagon BESTA | PraalyCow Salar Woming 190.17219% | Pinusly Low Sulfr

Organization of the Report

Section II of this report outlines projected

anges ia coal use by uses rom 2 196 analy

sis ani translates those dein changes int the

tapected aumber of joh slo changes in 2010,

Section IV presents a discussion of those jb slot

anges relative 40 national coal enpluyment

trends, and Section V cutis Hmiations of the

tnalysis, Appendix A provides a description of

the 1996 Integrated Planning Model, which was

‘sed for che analysis: Appendix B shows the

el fo the 199 Clean Aie Act Amerlents: ARterdix D contains 9 comparison of ress of

‘modeling and analysis for 2000 sed onde 1996 nals andthe 992 analysis Appendix Fees fonts defioitions of the actooyms and abbevia- tings used inthe report al Append Fatma Fives the pce review roves hat was men for this spon

Ill Projections of Changes in Labor

Demand

‘A Overview of Methodology

The projections of changes ia tor demand as

res of Tie IV are caulted using estimates of

‘hanges in coal use by uilities and fepionl mine

labor prestuctvty valeefioms The change in coal

tse by itis iso model derive oatp thai

severed using a series of assumptions about the

tasty sector The 1996 analysis CIP MBS) wa

Produced as part of a series of mode runs cow

fluted by ICP in suppot of EPA's Clean Ai

Poster Initsive (CAPD and he prospective

analysis ofthe effects ofthe Clean Air Act{CAA)

mm

Inepeted Planning Model (IPM) This sty

complements an ealior work for EPA using the

me mol, By comparing to ofthese moe

fins, one with Tide 1V's SO; peat and one

‘without the SO ogra, changes nti luc

oie were projected Productivity of incr in

D010 is estimated using EA data and PMP

sect productivity gr9Sth ates These ips ean

to wanslad in regional changes in te demand

for miners This section deseibes those ealeula

tions or the 1696 IPM analysis

"— 11

in the mining seco has preaty execoded te his

teri productivity growth rae ix mandating,

An analysis of the technology and management

Practices used in exiting mines indicates that

`

todhaiviy (CP, 190)

EPA% produdliviy goanh axumpions for 2010

se based on an analysis of histone producti

by stein won and anion aes ad a fave and desp mines Historie rates ot inpnove

‘ment are projected to continue, but decline over time turd & more iypical U.S manufacturing lahor productivity pro rte (2.5.30 percent per yee) This ele of fprovemcat i applied to both existing and new mines (CF, 1996),

1996 IPM analysis Appendix C compares he

1902 analysis complete for EPA's Real Impact Analysis (RIA) of the Acid Rain Irsplemeatation Regulations ith the 196 IPM analysis

B Changes in Coal Demand as Projected

by the IPM96 Analysis Changes in basdin§ coal use in fxr of lows fur westem coal can he expected to bave an Siapact on coal use an eal mining employe

“The regional changes in coal demand preted by IPM forthe year 2010 gs areal of Tle V ange from 3 Tow of 58 million tons for about 32 por contin northern Appalachia t 3 gaia of 63 mile Tiến tone (or almost 11 percent) in te West from

4 baseline that excludes TiÚc IV, Naiongidc Consumption expected 1 dp by 2eillion tons

fn 2010 ich is abomt a fth of ome pore) a8

‘west of Tide IV's SO requvemonts? Exhibit 3 Presents the bosline of siliy coal uke and the Projected impact of Tie LV om uty coal ase the year 2010 The analysis of coal use and

Exhibit 8aseline Uy Coại Use Pojeztons In the Year

2010 iat © Translation of Coal Demand

{uty Cat) Coat Use | Impast | 4 nosed above the ference in pr the fh ie thainy Bowen Ue cu and

= tres oa protclg region k fEastcrotaof aterm | 48) MIB T77 | arly afte tote ference n lauxRssiom how the coulis mined Given esi- Noethrn Appalachia | TIM —[ TH] SE] mates of future coal_prction,

‘Cental Seatbm | AAneiais we | 2 yy ¬ +32 | gecesary to develop projetions of S| sezonal miner peodutvty rates are

= ‘nin labor demand faze yeas Th ives =

ĐI ui _ 1994 the year in which the base case [wes SH | 8 [ +6 | s«wnplnm forthe 1996 1PM analy Total OS Tse | HHẤ |=?) se were devcloped, canter oa n=

claanges in job slot demands is conducted by

region reler to Exhibit 2 foe a beaks of he

states the eastern and west regions Though

the Sito western eval in response to Title Vis

accented with a rutin in demand for coat

Produced inthe Ext, it could have miligating

"foc on shits con preesion win the Eas

Tecause ofits low ilfur copter, each ton of

‘westr co thai sed in place of an equivalent

‘mown of high -sulfur easter eal (rom norte

Appalachia ve the Midwest) could eliminate te

2 to sift svert tons of pectin fo hh

sulfur to mediom-salfur eaten col Thi osu,

find interaction between transportation “cost

changes and bassline demand putes, is di

‘essed moze ally in Appendix C

er priced an average of 328 tons

‘coal per hn hile western eines produced 1323 tons por how (ELA,

200 Western miners also averaged more hie fof work por year ~ 2.5367 vers an average of

22060 por year for eanora miners (EIA, 1998)

"These two factors imply that esl milion tos of coal mine pr year nthe Fs ei HE mắn 1.0000 tons 13.28 tonshr * 2,080 yr)

or 148 miners, while cach million tos mined in the

‘equired only 30 miners West 4.000.000 sons 13.23 tosh * 2.596 buy)

68 pines?

Tus, sifting pat from

eastern 10 western coalfitds

‘vl ave ample mpaels

Exhibit 4 Productivity Measures used inthe Analysis” jo

even given constant prauction | Yewdutiy Meaware Past West olumes For example, a shit

DF 30 milion tons of ouput | 1% Base Producing 338 haa fiom caste to western coale —| prndninity Growth Raw (OHI 45⁄4 15% fields would eave 148" MP

n0 Tomes ntact in the | 2800 Presi etl a7 m

East and only 30 * 30 0° 900 [prada Growth Re 2000-3000 | _ 40% dua are miners i the West, fora Pradactviy Groth Rae: 20052010 | 15% 35%

fot reduction of 3.500) job

Exhibit 4 shows the producti

ity rates thot were ween the

1096 IPM analysis

The productivity increases for coal mining

ttionwide are incorporated ot the IPM alysis

‘sing the bare your 1994 and the vals stan

Exhibit 4, above Suc changes in pxductiviey

‘would aur even inte absence ofthe Acid Rain

Program At ese tates of prodvetvity increase,

tutpat por hour inthe East woul reich 3.28

1050-9911, 9 4.27 tone pee works por

hue inthe year 2000 atl 6.14 40-2010, whe

swestersomipat wont reach 13.28" 1015/2000

1994) or 1723 tons por hour ia 2000 and 28.77

lp 2010 This level of peouetvity eapeesents a

87 percent ineease over the productivity Tevsl i

1094 1n oth epfons Assuming no change inthe

umber of hours of work per year in each rion

from the 194 base case assumptions, these

hoor productivity projections lead to estimates

19179 miners pr million tons por year the Eat,

fd 16 miners per million wos per your in the

‘West Using hese vals the regional oa outa

changes shown i the thin! column of Exhibit 3

Sows 8 Depart Ee, Eonar Adan Cony

can be transated into the labor requirement

‘anges shin in Exhibit 5, Eepiloyneet inpaetk of TiMe TV are reported in terms of net and gross changes, THe net loss (4.100 mite jo sos) i the sation ehane

fn jabs balancing loses in some rsions ith ine ia ees, Coss Tosses (7.700 mine job IS) se the total ah slo losses regions that show decreases in the nce for coal miners! As deus ove, these projetions ean he en a indcatns a fini small dssrease in nt apo ent (of approxintely 4.100 mine job sos io

2010, which approximately eight percent of the Inscine level of $4,090) At the same time, the Figures suggest move substantial goss cage i

jb sls in indivi sions a total of 7,700 ewer minets (18 percent ofthe hasline level of 4,400 miners in these regions) would be needed

in north Appalachia and the Midwest inthe year 2010; 3800 mone iiers (34 pareent ofthe Insinefvel of IDA miners in these regions)

Aca gn oust tn i cn tly 4 Ths ar

‘nasi Hwang treo ce snc ach on on teens ane gee et he ‘Signe ihe cedar osestyiod Croce sonpetowe

woul he needed) in central

Appalachia andthe West and somthern

Another aspect of these measures of gros job

fteayges tha should be Kept in mind i thse

louregional site in coal demand Fe within

foabem Appalachia) may be even woe impor

tant than the interregional sis diseased bose

Ge, between the East and West)? Though the

omtesn Appalachian tego i described a po

‘hing meliuntio iah vifur coi, l exam,

foals with a Wide range of sulfur levels ean be

foun in that region Shijng om high slior

fines to low-sulfur mines within northern

Appalachia would eu aerage sulfur eves, and

eo within smaller googeapieal regions ste not Tikey to bo as vui ae those that wove sisi aor demand fromthe East to the West [oes many ofthe same mines might be ale Fil the jot slots even aftr they have shit,

10

IV Demand Changes in Context

The precesng sections have shown dat ile LV

of the Clean Air Act will rece the overall

‘onan for miners i the coal tna, and will

ko induce regional shifts in dra or miners

though ncither ofthese chang na ác hai

hoon projected when the CAAA were en

1980, They ako touched on conver over effects

bof declining coal fndosry employment om Toca

sconomics, and the linkage hetweon hese

Tnhaek ai TH IV

TBelas concdofig that Tile 1V is oF wil be a

‘major Factor in these employment changes, bow

‘rsh it ic important lo plae the projected effets

of Tile IV in context, This section presents data

to the shaep decline in oa! employment in te

rst, along with projcetions of fture changes in

‘ploy metexpected even inthe absence of Tale

IW This hosline tends hen compared {0 the

pejsglal elects of Tie 1V ie, both for the

ration a8 a sole and for regions that will be

Ire heavily affected by Tile IV due tthe sul

fur content of their coal resources This compas

son makes clear tht itis the urdersing tend

toward higher miner proutvity, aot the effects

‘Of Title, that drives the longterm change i

rng employment

|A, Historical Employment Levels and

Trends

‘The level of demand for coal mines canbe ana

Iyaed by looking separately at ho total amount of

coal prodaced and miner produciiy Higher

ng production leads to increased miner demi,

‘while higher miner pdtv Conta por ine

er hour) rues the mine labor quid for ø

‘coal miners would be aca its peak.) Exhibit shows angus coal production between [972 and

‘heough the 19TH, ‘This drop in productivity fesulted from combination of labor unex mm tions, and rapid enry of tess experienced firs And miners in wespome 10 the oil shocks of the 1070s (Darmstater, 1997),

Productivity (infers of he ory aserags tons

‘of coal mined por mint) began climbing gain at

"

the cad of the 1970s and grow vơy Hy

thưungh at leus 1996 1 confast to the hư bơ”

satperyeur dep i miner prautivity rom

1970 ta 1980, miner productivity rose by more

than she percent aagaly om JỆNU hongh

W994, Part of this rapid esin vested from

improvements and growing mechinizadon in

bth surface mining (prevalent in the West and

Underground mining (common among mines in

the easiem US) Labor productivity at surface

‘mince heed fom ene inthe see of the

excavating equipment (Ge tper equipment ean

hol mors col per hour than salen, moe labor

Intensive equipmeno At the same tine, under

sound iting shied towacds highly mecha

ized “longwal” tecigues in which mining

‘machines ate ino col sean along a walla thot

Sand fet long cr mare, wie the unsupported

Foo ofthe mine was allowed to collapse bchind

the equipment as it ved, Miners’ productivity

at hạt ndrertumdl and sufiec minesalsa ben

fied from the increasing use of sophisticated

smper contol systems (Darmsidtr, 10971

Aother faci lean 1 higher average pode

tivity amone mninrs was the closire of some oF

the smallest and leas efficient mines, These

nines ht been opened in response 40 the oil

shook and a esting spike inte price of oan

the mid 1970s (ELA 1908, p 119) Whew cal

Prices declined these nse Were m0 Tongcr pe

able

Agerogate miner productivity was alo boosted

by the epi inerease in the West's shave of coal

Poston sting inthe carly 1970s, Mecouse

finer productivity in the West is several times

that of the ext ofthe UU the tations average

‘miner productivity inereass as production shifts

to the West Wester els transported to ester

tliie by rail Aine the penetration af westera

oa int caster markets, including the inceased

uss inthe wit industry, hasbeen atop in all

‘ates of more than a thd tatween 1979 and 1993 (Đamnsadte, 1907), Moreover ambien ai ual fay standards for SOs favor low-slfer coat even before the peomblgation of regulations under Title 1

hrongh he 19TH, the combination of inereosing coal production and dectining output per inet Ted to rapid cnpluymen Enpioynsgt rsehel a peak in 1978 at about 250.0 workers From Mat poi apd nereases

in productivity culsipped the rate of growth (0

«val demand, and employment hegant drop By 1904, just hetowe Tile TVs SO, progratn tent Ino Her, the numberof eoal workers had fl below 100,000, a loss of about 150,000 miner jobs in fxs than 20 years,

‘odes increases re projected in coal demand by

‘ites forth easter ad western coal thrash atleast 2010, These estimates are presented a

‘Appenitix B, which ako shows projections for

‘otal cual detnand under simplifying assumption hat the eatio Dereon uty demand and tat dni eamstant Over he sme pri, stm

al neeases ae projected iw mince prsuctivity of

4 percent until 2001, fling 104.0 percent per yar foe the nest five gears, and then wo 3.5 poe cont ia 2008 and thereatie (EPA 1996), Combining trgiom-speiDe estimates of coal pro dụclon for 2000, 2005, and 201 wih etiates

‘of labor requirements per milion tons of prodve

[cera Par gray ent Bad chanans bate econ 8, crs oot om may

3 he umber sggnig ote angie ta acon Appa

tien Icaleuitdl tin projected increases in in

ing productivity from 3 1994 basin) yields po

jectons of mining erapkiyroeo inthe ahienes of

Tile IV These projections are shown in Exhibit

‘a, Exhibit To provides the data points shown i

shi 7a

Exhibits 7a and b Job Slot Changes inthe Mining

(Coal Mining Employment With and Without Tie 1

‘soloed hr, was called hascd onthe col oxt- [ut projections shown in Appendix B undr the heading “Projections Incing Efects of Tite

TN and identi produc Svity estimates, Exhibit 7a shows leary tht athangh mislng enplay~ rent has fallen drama cally since is peak i the Inte 197s, and expect

cd to continue fall dost a thi drop has

‘ected and would con tinue to vecur indepen

fy of Title IN This ame point is mae jo 3 Aiferent way i Exbibit Exhibits compares the sumulatve Hoss in min job slots though

2010 fom the 197R poak

‘and from 1950 (che year the CAAA was enacted)

© the mines job slot Joss tebatable vo Title IV As shove, the oss:

es atibutable to Tite IV ar small compared to {he dep i min jo sot tht was ale ta

‘vay and eaninics to occur ae to Hnereases coal mir pdtv:

‘sl to fects specifically on therein ns tht are projected to lose mia jo slats as a osu of Tike TY Kein in mind that there wil he ofseting

section concentrate on the effects

fin in job slo for minors in other Exhibit @, National Coa Mining Employment Losses

With ang Without Title TY

shows total employment in these

ngon with and without Tids 1,

[Exhibit 96 provides the dats points

effets of Title IV are more evident in

Exhibit 95 han in Exit 2a, which

shows ational mining ja oes,

Sen le thất mot the Tost job slots came

before Tile 1V, snd tha

enpected to continue to decline iv these regions

ven Tile IV didnot exe atid 10 dapays

the cumulative Tose tm miner” jb slots throw

2010 fom the 1978 pea nd dz 1990 (he yea

ing eroployment is the CAAA was enacted) tothe mine job slot lows atibtable ta Tile IV hy the yest 2010,

{he Tos in jo sows atcbtabl to Tile EV wih epesent only ahout ten potent of the Fodueton From he pea in 197%,

9 Programs to Assist Unemployed Coal

Miners

Mine and other coal industry workers facing job

losses amibuahle tô thế reqnietnenix of the

Clean Air Aet are ligible for grams from the

Federal government fr jo traning eds

tnd relocation assistance, Operating between

1993 ant 1993, dhe Clean Air Employment and

Tesing Act (CATA) was designe 6 spoeal

sppropistions thrush the US Department of

{Labor to assist such workers, The program wat

siscontnued after 1998, by the Department of

[Labor maintained the authority t provide pants

rough 3 dieretionary fot in Pat Bo Tate IL

forthe Jo Trinine Partnership Act, a amend

hy the 1990 CAAA in Tide XI "Clean Ai

Employment Transition Assistance,” Q9 USC

ison?

ona,

As of 1998, over $82 million ws granted by the

Federat government between 1992 and 1996 40

al sing companies, slates, a the United

Exhibit 10, Coal Miners’ Job Slot Losses With and without Ti IV in

Northern Appalachia and the Midwest

Yow

Exhibit 9b, Coal Miners’ Job Siots With

‘and Without Title IW" in Northeca

‘Appalachia and the Midwest

Vocational and ecupational uaining rood related payments, and relate services Workers in casero and midwestern States

received the majority

DF rants ant fending

‘vith Minos (2 sanh, 3335 milion)

‘West Virginia fseven grams, $235

umber and value of CABTA and Tite IL rants directed to ds located coal miners between 1992 and

1996, 18

Exhioi 11 CAETA and Title Il Grants: Distribution by State 1902-1996 Program Year

a i a a TTY ban = ace le

V Limitations of the Analysis

‘The analyses conducted for this report incorpoat- the future in tall, ts subject to Hnitatons and

ss fine-grained representation of he Behavior of upcrtainis Thu, several Factors could Leal to ' linge numbsr of indistrat enties: it cavers cos and emission impacts shove or below the both long period of ine and a wide aosophi ——— zznoel impacts Those fects are shown in cal ae As SH mự dmilr atenpt lo pojeet Exhibit 12

Exhibit 12, Limitations of the Analysis

Dara, ol (08 diy Changs nS Co Mi, Retoe rhe ae 947

emer A, Demy Scmaletss, Rc ak, Mente, an Fu, and ak, abt M (J9) Poon, IE Cote fr Enya vmnenlPly Hee Camp, MA, xe 17

The New Yor Tes (196) ass Cl cự le

1 Dep as gat Aisa A Ca

US Depart offers Ene Inonon Adan (EI) (000), Ana ren Revi

1 vm Pein Ags, Oe Atm dor ir rg, Ai Run Divi, (950,

‘Regulars Anse Acad Ras loglenestioe Resa,

1S Fv on An: As Rai 90 Ai iso Gea

`US, Fatieneena Pyedis Ageky Ai Rae we sehen vats