Tài liệu tools for institutional political and social analysis of policy reform pptx

Tools for Institutional, Politial, and Social Objectives ofthe Sourcebook Getting Around the Sourcebook HlementsofPSIA Methodology 3 A Framework for Institutional, Political, and Socal A

Tools for Institutional, Political, and

Social Analysis

of Policy Reform

Tools for Institutional,

Ema kronor

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1 Introduction tothe Sourcebook! Tools for Institutional, Politial, and Social

Objectives ofthe Sourcebook

Getting Around the Sourcebook

HlementsofPSIA Methodology

3 A Framework for Institutional, Political, and Socal Analysis PSIA:

Macro Meso-,and Micro-Level Analyse 3

‘Macto-Level Anahss: Understanding the Country and Reform Context 38

“Meso-Level Analysis: Understanding the Policy Implementation Process S8

6 Case Studies

SIA Policy Impact: Mining Sector Reform in the Democratic Republic

of Congo

‘Combining Methods in PSIA: Land and Frtizer Reform in Zambia

PSIA and the Policy Process The Armenia Soil Sector PSA

Part2 Tools and Case Studies

Introduction

7 Macro-Leel Analysis Understanding the Country and

Reform Contest

Country Contest Tools

Reform Context Tools

(Country Social Analysis Procedune

Country Social Analyse Cate Suds Republic of Yon

County Socal Alri Case Study 2: ait

Power Analysis Procedure

Power Ama Che Stas Epa

Drives of Change Analysis Procedure

Drivers of Change Analysis Case Sty: Zamibia

Stakeholder Anabss Matrices Procedure

‘Stalder dnars Cate Study The Indoosia Ree Tiff PIA

Peal Mapping Procedure

alical Mapping Cate Sad: Decentaation and Water Sector

Privaisaion io Mania

Network Analysis Procedure

‘Network Analysis Cae Stud: Mulstakooldr Woter Governance

fn Ghona

Transaction Cost Analysis Procedere

“huradion Cost Anlis Cave Stuy: Cha Coton Seto PLA

RAPID Framework Procedure

[RAPID Framework Case Sta: PRSP Resch Poly Linkages

15 Meso-Level Analysis Understanding the Policy Implementation

“Meso Level Saker Analysis Tools

“Meso-Level Institutional Anais Tools

Contents

_Meso-LevelStatehlder Anais Case Stud The Zambia Land

-Micro-Poltcal Mapping Procedure 166 _Mier-Poltical Mapping Cae Stub: Liberaiing the Mining Sector 166

Forel Analysis Cave Study: The Reton of Price Coto va

‘Ongnizational Mapping Case Stade Chad Coton Ser Ref 18

9 Micro-Level Analysis: Understanding the Impact of Policy Reform

Literature Review Procedure Using Systematic Review Method 186 teatare Review Case tds SIA ofthe Tanzania Crp Boards

Community Level Qustiannaie Case Study 2A Rap Ciy Hows

{Community- Level Questionnaire Cate rudy 3 The Cen Report Card

The Household Eaonomy Approach Procedure 2M

“The Hac Economy Approath Cate Study: mpat of Changes

in the Global Cofee Marke on Poor Households in Uganda 29

Reform SIA

Miso Method Cave Su 2: Rada Te Sector Reform BIA

(Mize Matiod Cate Sy : Repco Yemen Energy Reform PSIA

‘Mino Met Case Study Abtiton of Ue Fes in Heth Units in

Uganda

10 Reviewing Policy

Soc isk Assessment

Scenario Setting

Socal Risk Management Procedure

‘Social Risk Management Cae Stal: Vlreity and Excation

‘ie Ghina

Scenario Analysis Procedure

Sconario Anas Case Study: Scenayio Analysis forthe Navona

Stag in South Afric

Think Tol Procedure

‘Think Taos Case Study: The Armenia Soil Sexton PUA

APpendivA Contentsof the Accompanying CD-Rom

Index

Boxes

21 Poel Bsomomy of Reforms Mining Sector Restructuring in

Romania

“Ten Elements f Good PLA

‘Considering the Countrfactal in the Albania Water Sector

Reform PSI

2.4 Sic Transmission Channels for PSEA

25 Policy Reforms volving Changes in Authority

3:1 Country Soca Analysis ofthe Republic of Yemen

32 Stakeholder Analysis of Zambia Land Reform

20

20 2a

as

261

6 1

Contents

3.3 Qs and Quintstive Dimensions of Poverty and Social lpuct Analysis

34 Waysof Combining Qualitative and Quantiatve Approaches

4 The Key Principe of Good PSIA Process

42 Selcting Policy Reforms for PSIA

463 PSIA Slecton and Process in Ugand: The Strategic Exports Initiative

44 Case Study Procest-and Moderation-Oriened PSIA in Armenia

43 ThePSIA Procsin Zambis

46 Organizing and Managing Meetings and Participatory Assessments

47 Potential Poverty and Soil Impacts of Cambodia Social Land

Concession Program

(61 Recommendations from the Final Report on the Workshop on

Greased Reorganization

7A Framework fr Basi Country Analysis

7.2 Sample Stakeholder Analysis Table

7.3 Sample Importancelalluence Masi

74 Visual Map of Plt Actors and Their Degece of Suppor for

Figures

S31 Tools fr nsutional, Political, and Socal Analysis

32 Tools for Macro-Levs Analysis

333 Tools for Mes-Level Anais

3:4 Tools for Micro-Level Analysis

35° TheMethod Data Framework

36 Tools for Reviewing Policy

1 Concentric Distbution System

62 _ Job Placement Peformance

7H Macro-Level Analysis

72 Conflict Poverty Cen Hai

73 Driverof Change Analytical Framework

74 Stakeholder Anapsis Sequencing, with Examples

75 Individual lnuence Network Maps of Different Members ofthe

‘White Volta Basin Bord, Ghana, 2006

26 The RAPID Framework

BA Meso:tevel Anais

82 Stlcholden Interest and Influence ver Decon Making

in Zambia Land Reforma

7

103

ut lại

123 Stkcholden Interest and Influence aver Implementation in

{84 Micro-Polical Mapping of Fictional Mining Reform Proposal 167 85.- Fowce-Fied Analysis of Employing Study Supervisors to Cover for

16 Force-Feld Analysis for Reduction of Price Contos m

187 Static and Proce Map: CotonChad 1m

21 Pog sues That Might Be Appropriate for PSIA 0

22 Examples of Transmission Channels Relevant to Specie Policy Reforms 24 2.3 Faamples of TIPS Tool Relevant to Transmission Channels

S11 Tools for Anahi of Countey Comtext

32 Tools for Analysis of Reform Context, ”

33 Tools for Anais ofthe Policy Implementation Proces 0

34 Socil Analytical Frameworks for Impact Analysis 1

36 Data Calleston Method for Impact Anahi ~

37 Panisipstory Tals for Mico-Level Poverty and Social Impact Analysis 31 đá1 ˆ Thansielen Channels and Mine Sector Reforms in DRC m

24 Key Actors Policy Interest Matrix, Indonesia Rie Tail PSA m

72 The RAPID Framework How to Influence Policy and Practice 153

1 Key Stakeholders in Zambia Land Reform by Category va 8.1 Republi of Yemen Energy Reform PSIA Policy Recommendations 238,

101 Strategie and Arrangements of Socal Risk Management 20 Qverview of Tools

Contents

Stalholder Analysis Mateces

Political Mapping

Network Analysis

Transaction Cost Anais

Research and Policy Development (RAPID) Framework

Focus Group Discusion (FD)

‘Community-Level Household Questionnsive

CConsuatveImpaet Monitoring of Policies (CatM Pt),

Husshold Bamnoeny Approach

‘This Sounebook helps readers to better understand the impact of policy reform by providing a famework and tools fr focusing policy analysis on politcal economy, ower tltions, and soil dyamics Ii increasingly recognisd that fre to stipe politcal and institatonal hallenges soften 3 ciecause of unsucesl policy reform processes, with unintended soc consequeness for often vlerable {nd poor group,

We are presenting forthe ist sine, an aly framework fo the asesmeat

of policy reforms froma social development perspective Thisisa major step forward for oue workin the Social Devslopment Department ofthe World Bank, linking social analy fom the “macro” level of policy making dwn t the “micro” level of pic impact Weaving the pliy and the inatitutional and the household evel ana Iysaly together helps in deeting attention to inclusive, pro-poor and evidenee- bated policy making that beter serves poor and vulnerable groups in sci

“ha for Tnstcavona, Polite, and Socal Analysis was ntaly launched as 3 ichsed resource in 2005 The objstive was to provide guidance om tools and techniques to conduct distributional impact snabsis of policy reforms and to complement existing, lagleconomi, guidance and good practice material, par tial the Wer Guide ow Paver and Social Impact Analysis and the Toot for Evaluating te Poverty and Distributional Impact of Economic Police The prani- rence tats increasingly given to power rations in policy reform i flected inthe analytical innovation inthis Souretook of a “transmission chann

lamptsdsling with estes of authority and power Grestr emphasis has la been

for reform placed om the proses of conducting policy research, with tention given to encour-

‘ging more consulate form of evidence-based policy staking, offering more

is to often underrepresented ad poweres stakeholders ike smallholder fem women, or communities in emote aes The Soucek tackles the subjects

‘of power and of process directly and provides valuable guidance on how to addtess

‘them in policy analysis in over to design more inclusive and equitable polices

“The Sourchook i intended to help both development practoners in donor

su ational oeganizations who coonmission plicy andi, and consultants

Foreword

sescarcher, and cil society groups who conduct sch analysand use the res

A major challenge ahead i to build capacity conduct socal analysis of policy reform as well aso facilitate processes where rests an effectively inform national policy dialogue This Sorcoook contributes to awatenestssingand capacity bi ing for applying good quality socal anass a an integral element of policy reform design

‘We ae gratefil to the Department for International Development (DFID) and

‘he German Agency for Technical Cooperation (GTZ) fr supporting this projet ith resources, creativity and ideas Weate particularly grateful them for pushing sto move into the new ares outlined above, We hope that readers af this Sour ook wil use thi book to beter understand and apply istttional, polis, and soci analsisto policy eorm contributing to more eautableandjust development fora

‘This Sourecook is an encouraging example of good interagency cooperation and

‘eam work It was commissioned and produced by the World Banks Socal Devel

‘opment Department (SDV) in cooperation withthe UK, Deparment fr Interna- ional Developments (DFID) Hoverty Analysis and Millenium Development Goal (MDGs) team Additional funding was provided by the German Mbnistry for Bconomic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) and the German Agency for Technical Cooperation (GTZ)

Tescny Holland isthe chief author of the Soutebvo; who ressved guidance and support from the Social Analysis and Policy Team (Anis Dani, Andrew Norton, Renate Kisch and Sabine Beddies) atthe Social Development Department The tok introducer framework fr insiution politi and social anaes of palcy

‘efor (Part 1) and presents a wide range of ols, which have ben developed and applied by various development agencies (incuding DFID, Sida, GTZ, USAID, and

‘ive the Children Fund) in port 2 We would like to thank the people and organiza- tions behind the acronyms and tol names fr thie wilingnesso share thse work snd expevience with sand for making the material swale which eontitats the richnes of his book Special thanks go to Derick Brnkerhof and Benjamin Crosby, David Booth, Philip Davies, Alex Dunca, Kistan Hawkins, Jesko Hentschd, Steen Jorgensen and Jui ve Domeen, Renate Kirsch and Chris Pin, Peter Lanjouw and Nick Stra, Hugh Macnilan and Neo Simutanyi Jonathan Maack, Robert Nash,

‘Alan Hudson and Cecsia Huttrll, Cela Petty and James Aci, Eva Schl, abn Seaman, Sarah Vaughan and Kjetil Troms enny Yates and Ros Cooper and Fohn

Youngand [ulas Court

‘Wherever possible countey examples are presented to ustrate the aplition and we ofthe tol This would have not been posible without the input rm PSUA Task Team Leaders and ater collegues at the World Bask (Abebe Adugna,

‘Meskerem Brhane, Ans Dai, Nora Dudwik, Hermie de Soto and Sabine Beds, Xene Ezemenari snd Barbara Verando, Pal Francis, Andreas Grothe, Steen

Acknowledgments

Jorgensen an latina Lou, Sarah Keener, Antonio Nuifora, Stefan Pateroste, Andreae Robe, Emmanuel Skoufias, Dore Verner and Wil Egse, GTZ (Reinet Forserand Christopher Malmann) snd DFID (Tenifr Lith

‘We are farther gael forthe vey lively discussions we had in the run-up to his book and want othank“frst an foremost” Peter Pulten for his ich ontibutions

nd effort Valuable comments were slo provided by Ann Condy, Richard Matin, Jennie Richmond, and Clare Shaky from DFID; Ruth Alsop, Estilo Gacitur Maro, Sarah Hague, Caroline Kende-Robb, Reidar Kean and Stefano Patenosto fom the World Bank: Sabin Schnelland Mai Tersunen from GTZ; Aaron Schneider fiom the lsu of Development Stuiesaswallas the membersof the PSIA donor network, Paticuar thanks in the preparation of part 2 of this Sourebook go to Simon trook, Mare Olivier Rubin, and Ssbine Weinzer

‘Comprehensive Development Framework (World Bank)

‘Country Economic Memorandum (World Bank) Petosani Hard Coal Company (Romania) CConsuatveImpect Monitoring of Policies (G12) (Gitzen Report Card nia)

ovntey scala

ci Socity organization Development Asiance Commitee (OECD) Development Economics Department (World Bank) Department for International Development (Unite Kingdom)

<cvers of change analysis (DFID) Aiptheri, pertussis, and tetanus vaccine) Democratic Republic of Congo

Enhanced Strutural Adjustment Faiity (IME) Energy Sector Management Assistance Pogeam economic and sector work

[Ethiopian Peoples Revoationary Democratic Front Food and Agriculture Organization (UN)

focus group discussion gos domeate product

‘Government of albania Government of Gyana Government of Zambia Ghana Poverty Reduction Strategy

inta-household model International Labour Organization International Monetary Fund Kenya Participatory Impact Monitoring Ministry of Commanity and Social Development (Zambia)

Ministey of Finance and National Panning (Zambia) Minstey af Labor and Social sues (Armenia) Minsry of Economy (Abana)

Ministry of Finance Ministry of Health former Ministry of Local Government and Desentralizaion (Albania)

Minstey of Teitory Adjustment and Tourism (Albania) nongovernmental organization

National Regional States Ethiopia) Overseas Development Institute Organisation for Esonomie Co-operation and Deselopment Operational Guidance (World Bank)

poverty analysis macro simulator Poverty Eradication Acton Plan (Uganda) participatory ethnographic evaluation and research Participatory evalatorieseatcher

Poverty impact seeement Plan forthe Modernization of Agricul (Uganda) Poverty Monitoring Unit (in Zambia Misty of Finance) participatory poverty assessment

prticpatory poverty esearch Participatory rural appraisal poverty reduction strategy Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper poverty and socal impact analysis poverty and vulnerability assesment

am (Quaiative Impact Monitoring (Malai)

RAPID research and policy in development framework (ODI)

sap Structural Adjustment Program

SD Stats soc development statistics (World Bank)

s0 socio development indicators

SEA strategic environmental assessment

sel sratege exports inate

sida Sedish International Development Cooperation Agency SPA Strategic Partnership with Afi

SIM social isk management famework

mips tools for institutional, pelt and social analysis

TOR termeof reference

uN United Nations

UNICEF United Nations Childe’ Fund

UNHU, University of Iubunbashi(DRC)

UPEAP, Uzanda Participatory Poverty Assessment Process

USAID Us Agency for International Development

WHO World Health Organization

¬ Water Regulatory Ensty (Albania)

ZAMSIF asia Socal Investinet Fd

ZccM Zambian national copper mines

Unless otherwise nt all monstany denominations ae US dollars

part 11

Introduction to the Sourcebook:

Tools for Institutional, Political, and

Social Analysis (TIPS) in PSIA

Objectives of the Sourcebook

Poverty and Soci Impact Anais (PSIA) refers tothe ali of the distribu tional impact of policy reforms! on the wellbeing orwell of diferent stke- holder groups, with particular focus on the poor and vulnerable, This Soutelook introduces 4 framestork as well a tole for institutional, politcal, and soci analysis (TIPS) in SIA I is intended primarily for practitioners who undertake policy analysis in developing countries The Sourcebook provide istrative gid nee on range of tols and their aplication: it doesnot sek to prescribe i to this audience

This Sourebok is part of guowing and callaboraiveeesponse by intentional

‘agencies and national partners to encourege and provide more sjstematic poverty

‘nd social impact analysis to build in-country capciy and to shi the balance of| SUA experience from donors toward national stakholders More special iis Alesgned 0 fill peresved gap in guidance on institutions, polit, and soci

analpses ante complement the guidance provided in the Wold Bank’ User Guile

1 PSIA (2008), which advocates a muldiscipinary approach to SIA and presents both economic and soil toolsand methods, along with the Wot Bank's Economic Toolkit (Bourguignon and da Sia 2003), The Soursbwok also complements the teform-by-reform notes om esonomic analysis in PSIA, produced by the World Dank

“These tool, presented for tse in PSA can he applied to ply analas more broadly The methods an approaches used in PSL are not ne, aoe he Focus on ddresing distributional ieue of interventions The PSIA experience breaks

round, however, by applying social and economic analses to the inpaets of economyide reforms before thos eforms ae carved out (ex ate ali) and in the contest of sjstematic evidence-based policy dialogue (Coudouel, Dani, and Paternosteo 2006, 2)

“Thefirst impact analysis that used the PSI tile wae undertaken asa series pot projects by he Word fank andthe U.K Department fr international Development

(DFID), with nancial support rom the Finnish, German, and Norwegian govern

‘ments between 2002 and 2004 Subsequent, the Wold Bank earmarked fund for sciling up SIA, so that hy 2006, more than 130 PSLA stakes hai been complete oF ave under way PSIA analysis has been integrated inthe World Bank Operational Guidance (OP) 8.0 (2004), which requires due dlignceon the part ofthe Bank in

‘te operstions With respect to poverty and soc impacts, OP 80 obliges the Hank

ta determine wheher"speifi country polices supported by is operations are ily

to hae significant poverty and social consequences, expecily an poor people and vulnerable groupe and if 0, “to summarize revant analytic knowledge of these sft anda the borrower’ systms for reduing adverse ets an enhancing poe Ite effet asocated ith specitc policies being supported” (paragraph 10), More recently the Development Assistance Commitee (DAC) ofthe Organi

‘on fr eonomic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has designed 3 method- ology, x Ante Poverty Impact Ascsment (PIA) a “light” veson of PSIA, which

‘nonetheless, provides sound basis for donors and thet partners to understand and

‘maximize the povery-reducing impacts of th interventions, thus responding to the need for accountability t constituencies and for transparent evidence-based cdsbion making (OECD 2006) The PIA group lies losely with the PSTA network

‘te ensure synergy and complementarites in the eo approaches,

‘Scope of the Sourcebook This Sourcbook dels with socal ana in policy reform, encompassing the tan sition rom gaining better understanding ofthe ditional impacts of proposed

or continuing reform to ieuendinga mor informed and lel embedded process

of pliy review and design,

In a generic sense, the tem "Sci analysis" encompasses insiutionl pol, and sci analyses These three overlapping ares, drive from dierent disipl- acy backgrounds, focus om the roles and rations that underpin and infloense reform outcomes

Institutional analysis loks atthe “ules” that people develop to govern group Iehavior and interaction in politcal, economic, and social spheres of lie Institutional analyse based on an understanding that these ruler wheter

(CHAPTER I Intodtion tothe Sourcebook

formally constructed or informally embedded in cultural practice medite and stor, sometimes fundamentally, the expected inputs of policy reform,

+ Political analysis ook tthe structure of power relations and oten-entrenched interest of diferent stakcholrs that fect decision making and distributional sgeemes Polidel snalysxix bul on recognition that poi ntres nr

in many areas of policy debate and economic reform, challenging assumptions thout the technical nature of policy making

+ Soca analysis looks tthe social lationship that gown interaction at df=

at organizational levels incuding households, communities and socal groups Socal analysis is but on an understanding of the role of soca and cultural norms in governing rlationsips within and between groups of socal ators,

‘with npletions forthe dgee ef inlsion and ernpowerment of specific soca

These ovelaping tes of social analysis offer sigiiant added value to the use

of conventional economic analysis of distributional impacts of reform Economic appeal and evaluation us a variety of tools to estimate the costs and beaefis of policy initiatives by predicting behavioral chang in response to movements in price

nd other independent variables Soil analysis onyplements eonomic analysis by ising nega qulitative and analytically robust tool ta understand the eatire of sci, politi, and institutional rations that undespin the desig, imple tion, and impact of policy an that has a ess-predictable impact on individual and group bebavior and rations These insights can enhance economic analsisby cla lying the costs and benefits of policy reform (ven when it might nat be possible to lace precise vltes on them) Socal analysis cn alo reveal the soca and piel

significance tha sch sisi cot and benefits aceruing to diferent groups have

Gotting Around the Sourcebook

This Sursehook uses simple analytical famework that highlights the significance

nd application af instttiona, plead social analyse at thee levels of policy reforms maezo-Lvel anal afhe country and reform contest, meso-Lvel processes

of policy implementation, and micro-Lvel impact of pliy reform The ago

further deseribes the ue ofthe analyes genet at these thee levee to feed policy sign through the consideration and comparison of diferent senaris for policy reform,

‘Using this analytic framework the Sorsclook presents a to practi tools that can he applied to beter derstand the distributional impact of policy reform and to improve policy design These tools should be used selectively becuse &

‘workable design for policy analysis vquies that he scope of the tdi kept man- gable The expanded ease tues presented in chapter 6 of pat, long withthe set of shorter case studies presented in part 2, iustrate that a “fit-for purpose methodology for institutional, soil, and political analyses generates new data selectively sparingly and ona need-o-know basis

‘A india this Soursbok s presented in ta parts Part | provides an into

‘ation and overview to TIP for both commoner and practitioners who ack to

‘understand the purpose and function of institutional, poi and sci analyses in policy-focused rssh, Part structured using an analytic framework that linked to suninarized set of tols that can be used at diferent levels of policy analysis Prt 2 wil be of particular vale to practitioners who woul ike more in- depth understanding of those tols and thei sppistion art? deterbe and lre: tees the tals in greater detall—usingthe sme framework npr and pro- ides further case sty mate on the use of institiona, polite, and social analyses in diferent contexts An accompanying CD-ROM contains selected ey documents on PSIA and its application it provides addtional description an lu tration of a range of potcpstory tools that can be ase fr micr-teve impact sali, An overview ofthe material arable on the CD-ROM is presented inthe appendix

arts ongunized ino fie chapters following this introduction Chapter? nt ces PSIA and its main objectives, then brill ceviews the 10 ements of good practice inwoduced inthe World Bank's A User Guide to PIA (2003) The remain- der of the Sourcebook is guided by these elements and presents 3 famework for analysand accompanying tools Chapter 3 esribes thre levels for analyzing inst

‘ational, politi and socal impacts of poli reform, each with et of tool Chap ter 3 abo shows how information fom these thre levels can be wed t feed piey review and design Chapter 4 discusses proces elements to consider when seeking to

‘maximize ownership and impact of PSIA, Chapter S present some conclusions on the framework and applistion of TIPS, Chapter 6 presents thạc case tues that

‘lustre the difference thatthe application of instations, politcal, and soci nares can make or PSIA methods, nding and process

art 2 describes and Murat in grester desl ange of tools that ae sve for conducting institutions, politcal and sci analysis of policy reform, Each tool {presented in summary able fonea, allowed by description ofthe procedure for

(CHAPTER I Intodtion tothe Sourcebook

poling the tol and a case stody ustrtin Using the analytical famework id

‘ut in part 1 chapter 7 presents tools for maco-tvel analysis, chaper® presents tool for meso-level analysis and chapter 9 presents tools for microlevel analysis, Including ive casestudies tht iustae the effective use of combined methods for SIA Finally chapter 10 presents ndillsteates tos that an apply the information senerated to reviewing policy

Notes

alow OIA hatte on pl the pyri

2.19 iw sc fem ts chk Sc Callan at phon

References

nino aL Pir Sh, 203g he Povey ond Dbl pact

‘fF oie (Technique and Tn) ashington, DC: Word Ban

Condo A Dan and &.Ptrnsin, es 206 Poverty ud Sei inact Anas of

“dorm LseneandEzape rn Inpleentnton Washingon DC Wo Bk

‘nition for somone Co-operation and Devebpnent (OECD), 2006, Promiig ‘Pron Growth Posey luc nomen Pic OPED Word Bank 2003, Uses Gade Povey and Scial Inpact Ana Washingon, DC

‘Word Bak

"2008 operations} Guidance (OP) #40hdpnsbseldbenkerg/WĐSHTEI EXTERNAL PROJECTEXTFOLICIESIEXTOP MANUAL/,contntMDK 20240031~ PoeP 4168p PKL 1 tesePKSORIAM AA

An Introduction to PSIA

PSIA Objectives

Poverty and Sacil impact Anabse (PSIA) sees to support poverty seduction

‘hough beter policy, partially, but mot edusvlyia low-income countries tis Increasingly recognized a an important element in both aatonal poverty strategy processes and in IMF and World Bank lending programs (Robs 203),

SIA is an approach fr assessing the dist btional impact of policy reform by analyzing impacts onthe wel- being of diferent soca and vlthonds groups The

‘verge of PSIA ia been driven by concer shot eso pace of port ede

‘on ectons to the soc impacts of structural adjustment programs, and bythe secognition that poverty and disuibuional aspects at inuenced bya very wide ange of policies, even where these policies are not directly focused on poverty reduction PSIA is one of curl forms of impact analysis that consis the impact

of poi or regulatory change,

Toicyanais such as PIA can generate evidence ha an be integrated into po Jey eylesaecordingto whether snasies rir to (ex ante) the ily impact of pec

fc reforms, ding reform, afr (ex post) completed reforms Policy analysis poe

to policy reform can inform the choice, desig, and sequencing of alternative policy|

‘options During implementation, the monitoring of reform ands impact can ead torefinement;resonsieration ofthe pace sqiencing or institutional arangsments ofthe reform othe intodtion or strengthening of mitigation measures Finally, policy analysis aller policy reform assesses the actual distebutional impacts of com leted reform, which lps analysts understand the likly impacts of fatute efoems, Policy analysis can be applied t policy reform across a range of ares and sectors (see table 2.1) Some “nonmarket” types of reform, such as decentalization or

“able 24 Poi ksues Tiat Night

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Terai lone rain wae

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‘Shor markot pepe

‘Unity eam estustoing saieonned

‘tes teased pista pacpation

State-onnod vy fu aves of

Exam Manet sd extange sla ply vlan varus counties (Conway 2005)

‘Daninger 2005) Lind elneston, Vietnam alin anc

‘i We 2002 (Cousot and Pas 2006)

‘i sen aor: resus

‘management bya, redurtens in vgs

‘Decanvauation of publ sneer rzoess

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De Seto 2006 Puble sector vag, vats curios

Walaa efoem Srtania Cyan Vahaarath Pandon yen ferme varous cours (sahara 7000)

CHAPTER 2 An nroduction to PSIA

public sector reform, ae more likly 1 have dice impact that lend themselves

‘most obviously 1 institutional political and socal analysis, Yet thes tools can be

applied to impacts that are both market and nonmarket in nature because ofthe

ature of indirect (upstream and downsicam) impacts of policy rườm and

because marke forms are meiatdin ther impact by bebviorl responses among

nitions actors and affected persons

oicyanaisisbased on theasumnption that weareale Wo explain undestand,

predict and contol our envionment, which sot a simple isk, We might wat Be

sue of our precise current positon and trends, We might not fully understand hove

alteenative polices interact with everything ds We might lack the ability to impe-

rent the plies even hen we ar ily sre of hws they wil work nd Finally we

right not be nae of our path or whether we hae reached our destination Part of|

‘he over policy proces, supported by inpact nals sto strengthen apse-

ly te me the assumptions

PSIA uses range of kis common to regular impact analysis it focuses on the

comparative wel-being of diferent groups, particu those most at isk fom pl-

Sayimpscts Suse PSIA tends to have four characteristics

It helps ta promate thease of wider range of evidence in policymaking

‘Along with elated analytical wor, it inceases the extent to which distributional

equity s considered in the policy process by ensuring that polices ate not judged

purely om aggregate economic ficiency grounds, and by ary the assump

tions or theories that underpin the inks between poverty and policy reform

dsidone

‘combines analysis with proceso understand and manage the politi econo

ny of policy reform

+e supports inlusve policy making by proving evidence with which policy

makers and other stakeholders an inform ther discussions with a wide range of

actors through existing or emerging policy processes, such as Poverty Reduction

Strategy Paper (PRSP- Through god proces PSIA evidence becomes embed

ded in locally wae, transparent, and contested policy dislogue (Woald Bank

2006, 161,

Evidence-Based

iy Mi

1New approaches to policy management stress the importance of sound evidence

proper evaluation and good analysis at the het of policy making Robust evidence

rakes for better pli decisions and improved policy outcomes tthe national

ing: Challenging Interest Group-Based Policy

lel, evidence-based pliy i faced by timely and relevant owes of information

‘Without that information, policy makers workin the dark

4

Yee PSIA should not be promoted ntdÿ sulomatial leulng lo neue evidence-based policy making “Evidence” quickly becomes politicized by policy makers and oter interest groups PSIA evidence can inlude transparent analysis of exiting polices and power structures, helping to avoid interest group capture and lending tothe formolation of more inclsive policies and more accountable

Poverty Reduction in Policy Making: The Role of Equity as Well as Eficioncy

‘The shift away fom univers policy reform prescriptions town contest specific policy approaches strengthens contining efforts to ensre tht policy making and implementation ate motivated by concerns with poverty reduction and trib ioral equity Development partners incressngy rely on uptrearn aa of paver

ty and soul implications of policy reform, The World Bank, for example expects program documents for development policy operations to specify which policies supported by the operation might have sgnfcat poverty and social consequences

to summarize the main impoets and the borrowers sjstem to del with those impacts and 9 describe hove analytical gaps or borrower shortcomings would be sMdresed before or during implementation (OPR60 Development Ply Lenin)

‘Techni guidance om hove to undertake his work is provided in the acompanying Good Practice Noten PSEA

PSIASs concern with the dstebutional impacts of poiey provides an analytical sevice fo promote growth with equity by addressing any trade-off and identifying winners and losers under policy reform,

1 look at this relationship through PSA economic istiutonal, polit, and social amass needs tobe combined elective to better understand the likely or tua strbutional impacts of plc intatves Economic appraisal and evaluation

‘sca varity of tools to estimate the costs and benefits of policy initia natin

‘onl politcal, and socal analysis complements economic analysis by using langely sitive and analytically robust ons t shed geste ight onthe impacts of pol fey reform and likelihood of succes, ven though it isnot aways posible pace preci values om them,

Risk to Policy Makin

CHAPTER 2 An Introduction to PSIA

"ly sadsie cực aldcee the political economy of reform by assessing the

lanpats on, and the inuenc of, institutions and stakeholders in relation to policy

design and implementation Once these politcal economy risks 1 the reform

process are identified and if the are effectively managed, then the wil ees ike-

lo impede the policy reform proces Asillstrated bythe as ofthe PSIA on min-

fing sector reform in Romani (sce box 21),2 political esnomy perspective in PSI

enables poe taholdesto beter understand the incentives and expectations at

play and to manage these to promote poicy reform

"0421 Politica Economy of Reform: Mining Sector Restructuring in Romania

The minng sector has boon plagued by poles! eccnomy fsuos since the beginning of sector

‘estuctang in 1997 Inthe mid-1990, Romana had 484 mews, many af whieh were ungeonom

21 5} 2004, any 120 were operral and werkatce nad been downsized 160,00 from 171,000,

in 1997 But subsides tothe mining sector dd not dine: 2004 hoy reached 0.5 percont of GDP

Polodc sikes by the ade unions le to frequent concessions anda perpetuation of subsidies AS

arto be poverty nd sci mpset eas a the mining sect, the polis ccramy impact

‘assessed by aralying tinsel deta forthe mining eect! to examine the impact onthe budget as

2 Whale adits itroutanalconsaquences win the mining seo

eal transfers to the mining „ụ

sector The extent of subsides Sy

sector has lobbied fox haber Sto l§ g0 se

subsdes, ostrsbiy to make ag

severance payments and topsy

‘socal aloeaons” transpona-

‘lon, worker men, sfey equ

ment, and uniformsl, which

shouldbe dassied as producton costs In ely, thoss tw payments amount to one-sixth of ta

transfers, Despite the high seversace payments in 2004, the min cost was for ebsides 1 keen

he sacur alot (ae graph Half of the subsidies ara for opereting coats of airing companies,

‘leone cfr capital estments and exemesions under Arcle $3, GO 872003 trom pay- rmentof cent debts tothe state budget, socal nsurance budget, heath insurance and the unr

ployment budge

`.À

Distribution of benefits and costs within the mining seeter ho cecond pa ofthe pia

‘sconomy analyse explored the degras of inequity within the scter While mings ae widely de: perce over the county, td eal mines ae concetated nthe Js Voy, whi has 8 tory of

‘seve ade unoncm and has recsted reser stanton by successhe govenmerts The seztor consists of 10-ming companies, 9 of which neue ssasin 2004, To reach a oberveassess-

‘mont of he usa of subsites, data on budgets, wages, produc, revenue, aed downsiing wore analyzed for these 8 compares Tho dat revealed the flowing

+ ‘Wages at Pttosani Hard Coal Company (CNH), ected in he Ju Vale, ae 50 pereant higher than in othr mining eomanine

+ Despite more etfcient deep undraround mines the lnbort-cantal cost aio sshghest at CNA,

‘fete the abr costs moe than 70 pean

+ ‘While CNH has the leget amount of gress output, the outputtesabry ratio at CNH is sant

ty loss thn four the ath mining companies,

“Trough a dose slgnment ofthe study team with the poy team working on sector reform, the aralvical ings want hand in hand th pocydlogus, withthe flowing cutomes ard arse

© Comparison of dita obanod from the mining companis and ifernt mining region alowed reltvely taneparent anise of the polteal economy imeact on caplte of subsidies and bandte

+ careful ớntotng of budge subsidies would enable the government to impose hard budget

‘constraints an mining companies to aliminte unactesar producto subsides and bess down cong đeoslons on rl franca dts and socal pact,

+ ‘location of pub ivestments for sacoaconamie regeneration should be based on character istes of mining tovns—ioated, ne industialragions, market intgraten—rather than sfáe- taness of ade union and eal goverment lobbying,

“This Sourctook enphaszes the sguficance of paiel economy contert of sdbrm, The tos inthis Sourcebook can be used to hdp npc the “back box”

of polit economy by applying a social analytical lens to examining stakeholder neress and inceniveand tø undertindingtheinlucnce onthe policy proces of formal and informal insttions

CHAPTER 2 Am nroduction to PSIA

Inclusive Policy Making: Supporting Stakeholder Participation and Ownership

‘With the shit roward evidence-based policy reform thete i an opportunity for pelcy-aking frameworks sch as PRSPS—to improve inclusiveness and partici pation in the policy cyt by drawing on PSIA evidence when engaging transparently with wide range of tate and non-state actors There isan ethic dimension to sgherng information, interpreting information, and making pli Mechanisms of transparency and accountability can preferentially indude the poor to empower

‘hem wth vespectto competing interests and potential alls

SLA aa body of evidence will not be effective ues it feeds into transparent policy procs, as dete inthe Work Bank’ “Good Practice Nos" on support ing participation in development policy operations (World Bank 2004a) and in DFID‘ PSIA “Principles for Good Practice” (DFID 2005)Theough god practice in DSIA, policy analysis can be anchored is the formulation and implementation of| atonal poverty reduction strategies that build ownership by wansparenyinlod- ing as many stakeholders as pose, iacuding cil society and diel affected groups (See chaper 4 ofthis Soueboot fora discussion ofthe elements ofthe PSIA andthe policy proces.)

For national stakeholders and donors SIA provide the evidence andthe pos biiy of 3 fundamental rethinking of reform, a devision to change the Liming or sequencing of the policy, othe introduction of compensatory or complementary

‘measures to mitigate negative impacts or strengthen postive impacts

‘Often the proces of generating PSI evidence, by bringing stakeholders togeth-

«rat diferent levels to participate in stakeholder analysis workshops and other forms

of growp-hased axesarent, eretesaditions institutional spaces for dncassion shout policy change Inthe case of the Armen Soc Sector PSI, for example, group-based analysis generated high eve of joint understanding and consensuson policy change Chapter 6 ofthis Sourcebook discusses eethods including the Think Tels appeoach to policy analysis als implemented in Armenia When policy analy- sis prio co reform i very sensitive emphasis ona highly inlsive proces within SIA wil bees appropriate or will need te ef managed This might be the

‘ase for example, with sense monetary and eachange rate policy reforms

Elements of PSIA Methodology

‘The User Ge to PSIA (World Bank 2003) introduces 10 elements of good PSI (sce box 22) This Sourcbvo dawson there elements by introducing oor inst

‘utional, poll, and social analysis We focus hereon thee important ares for

‘obs PIA: establishing the couterfctusl, identifying transmission chanel, and idenming dre and invest impact of pli efor,

“Box 22 Ten Elements of Good PSIA

A Asking the right questions: The choice of questions fer PSUs infuenced by the exoscted

‘Se and drection of poverty and secs impact, the prominence ofthe Esuejn the govein- rants poey agenda, he tring ad urgrey the undelpng eloy or refer, andthe kvl

‘of rations date sutounding the reform,

2 dentityng stakeholders Stakeholder ansivss Motifs the peopl, gowns, a organizations {het operant to casi! when ooking at poverty and socal smpaes of afer

53 Understanding transmission channels: Ths expected impacto 2 policy change takes place

‘rough fve min ransmissin channels: employment, prices [production consumption, and wages), acces to goods and senioss, asset, and tnsfes and ave

4 Assessing institutions: Isttutions determine the frame in which poy raferms might affect stakeholders my goverment, pte sect, an el socet and ar the mon aren in

lh stakeholders terse wth ane another Assessing instuton denies how institutions

fe beng atfactes by poly changes and how they, s ariệr snd rana(fe a† chang, sect otal atone and ef cuteomes

5 Gathering data and information: Assessing data needs and avaibity and panring the pha ing of future data colcton are an mporant part of PSI, including ensuring data avaisbty for future PSA

15 Analyzing impact: Impact soli volves oxganiing esearch avestions to est ial Inks

‘mang th pole abjectves, pty actions, andtheirimpsctson kay stakaelder groups, wth

5 foous on wnnars ana oee

7 Contemplating enhancement and compensation measures: To te event at ther are los

1 rom afoim,PSIA con inform the Mention of option ot nepave impact thong,

‘he dave of approprate compensation mechanisms f he findings of PSU suggest ha he

‘costs of efrn-—in ters ofboth poverty eats andthe cost of mtigaton or compensation — Cutweiph the benefi thn consideration shouldbe genio resaquecing tha reform of abar- doning er suspanding implementation of he pai,

18 Assessing risk: Some ofthe asuretions unary the anayes might not be realize, nc ing stitutions risks politcal risks, exogonous risks, and other cout ks

8 Monitoring and evaluating impacts: PIA 015 s eprint fo Setup systems at an

‘aly staga for monitoring oc account, and evalustion of he impact

10 Fostering policy debate and feeding back into policy choee: Evidence-based soley mating

Is able to draw on PSIA data and analysis For lowncom counties, for example, PSIA hasbeen

‘onceptuazedasanintgral part ofthe PRSF process and san element of the dalogue onthe

‘county's poverty eduction strategy

Se Ate otha Urs Ges PI Wel ik 203

CHAPTER 2 An nroduction to PSIA

Establishing the Countelactua or Base Case) Scenario

11s important to compare the impacts ofa policy change with the key tends that

will accu without policy change, inorder to se the sie and nature f the impact

‘ofan intervention relative to oer policy scenarios or compared with doing noth-

{ng at al (the coumrictal Specify an assesment ofthe eotntersctual an

provide good estimate ofthe magia rmpct of plicysform

+ convince atts of the distributional impact ofa policy intervention

+ help to establish, inthe context of steratve policies or methods of implemen-

tation, which is preferable

hep to etablis ehether 3 policy has beter impacts on sme subgroups than on

others (Purdon et 20)

Ăn many cise this comparison can be exublished through a litature search on

the base case and wends in country or in similar cones elsewhere however, the

comparative piste provided by secondary iterate is nt sufcenty car, then

primary resarch built on sound sampling protocol nd modeling, an be dexigned

ina way that allows fra cormparion of the impact wi the bas mai,

Inthe contest af experinertal recuch, sampling fr the counterfactual often

involves randomized conta ral methods Charly, this randomization proces

fen ether not possible ori highly inappropriats, especially if voles denying

‘ta benefits to one portion ofthe population In some cases it might be possible to

1ÄenH§ geographical areas that are appropriate as contol group populations but

‘hat wil remain unafected by the oem implementation (eho 23)

‘entiying Transmission Channels

‘The User Gil to PSIA (World Bank 2008) outines a framework of tansmision

channels through which policies might cause distributional impact Delineating

connel inthis way makes transparent the assumptions that rebut into SIA oF

policy reform, that is, how policy change is expected tn delve its impact Five

‘hannel ar identified in the User Guide

‘ung the developmen of TPS, and based on experience since the User's Guide

a produced, further consideration has ben given to these channds Minor modi

featons have been add to the existing fie channel for example, expanding the

‘understanding of employment to inde other source of income and broadening,

the understanding of prices beyond the cash price pid ox 24 describes the char

stesso the five channels and introduce sch channel authori

4

“he Government of Abana (GaN) neuded vse sector rete ints National Suatapy for See- conemie Development (Akaniss Poverty Reduction Statepy) to provi equitable access to ste water and aforaabia tas though a water set reo tất uses wo paral moda dcenta- lasbon ith phate nd wth pble management of water utes

‘The PSIA measures the actual impacia of reform implementation by comparing two cferent Aecentalzton reform models n sight otes—four project cas fstumng devenrslzed givately

‘managed water utes (Dures, Fie, Lezha, Sarena] and fur comparable cites with decenaized publ managed vate wes (Moa, Korea Lush, Girokastrl—cross difrent pnts of tie before and fer piste ster patcpston, Inthe at tance, a baseline was set when the pe vate operator stared uty management i the lau prec cies, andi feraseen tht reform Impacts, once vse, wil be measured sbout one year att

| Box 24 Six Transmission Channels for PSIA

1 Employment: To the extent that @poley change afects the smucte ofthe bor marke or

‘the demand for labor pict n actors thst employ the poor auch eo uncial oft-

‘am, and agicutal bbor, the wolfe of lnv-ncome households willbe affected, Those wh fare changes might inane other effects such a= changes in status, sthestoom, of access to fcc networ,whien lơ impeet soe excision and vulerabity Fansmsion may be

‘ect fx ample, trough puble sector tetrenchment of raw employment opportunities) er indtezt for stare, trough macrescerom grown, exchange rate deprecition, trade, or

‘market eeraton! and may dferenty affect fermal and informal sectors, including co

‘employment

2 Prices (production, consumption, and wages: ices datemine fe! hours inca Pees inca both the actual monetay pice pid as well as oppor costs fr example, of {queuing| and costs inured though renseckng behav Price changes wil aftct both cor- sumption and resource alecatondecions.On the consumption se, poles—such as ried import tats or faioray monetary poley—that cause an increase the peas of goods or

‘vices consumed by the household wll have e dice negative fect ante welts, reducers

wl ao be affect by poioas that cause relive changes to th pics of tar output or

(CHAPTER 2 Am nroduction to PSIA

| Rox 24 continued

Inputs Wage changes wil asc net buyers and sls of bor ferent poles tht change

‘eve peas wil race his in both demand an supply

3, Access: Watbeing wit be ettected by sccess to goods and svices, wheter trough sccees 19 mates and srvce outa trough mpovements inthe qualty nd rsponswonsss of pub- cor prnata service powders Polcy can affect access directly by enhancing the provision of 'srasucture or sonvees in quoston, ot indrecty by remowng constants to access by party

Lạ houssholds of group Stuer! er cultural nos of ules sucha restction en ferele

‘ably oF fem propery ght] might alsa impose higher transaction costs or cesta baars

to access, some of which are more emenable to poley actos than others These types of

‘eforms wil hava the aithorty channel as the mon channel and accees channel as a supporting chanel

4, Assets: Changes inthe vol of assets wil alec income and nanincame dimensions of wr fate, Changes in aset values canbe duet changes in ha levels or hee fetus Aset endo

‘ments include physical suchas housing natal suchas lend, ate); human (suchas duc

‘ion, sil nancial uch a5 a savings aout: nd soil such as membership in social net

‘works that increase access to nfornaton or resources cata Poly changee such alan

‘eter, reallocation of puble spending, of maroeconorte poiey ean heve 9 des or ndraet

‘enact on people's abity to yest na craw dovm onthe assets oo mani turns othe

5, Tansfors and taxes: Ware affect by vansfars that ean take the form of priate Hows {such ais ad remittances of public ows suchas subsides and taxes) Publ finance has 3 ect impact onthe wale of specie goups though vanstee—inluding subse, trgsted Income trates, and socal protection isives—and tx ply that can be mareorleb pro- gessiv ints detrbutonal impact Tax pote hss direct itroutoralimpacts othe extent that

‘the resources or income of a household ae taxed Regressive tx rgimes ceproportonstly ban les wolff househots, and subsidies might be tay ttgoted or captured by theron oot Prat wanstar lo lay s sigaicant ole between ban and ual atess and femitances fiom erers employed abroad leptiate or laa! tanslrs, such as protection mens, cn

eo havo significant dtrbutional pacts

6, Authority: This chanel covers changes in power, suuctures and processes that govern he fr

‘nal and informal funtion of publ stitutions can opera at the macro evel such as public Service arm) atthe maso level seh a decentaization of admits auton? andeven

‘tha mito love [auch a tedeecting wefare payments from men to wormen| Tis channel encourages anys of the likely impact on state actos and tizens of changes in dacision-

‘akg bohaviors and interaction that recut from naợ asgnmints of rafts, obigatons, Incontvs, and sanctions: Sacondround analysis through ths channel might aso expr fot

_

‘ramp, how individuals and groups react by expanding or dversivng tor Wwothood svatgios

fr by changing thes behavar on the understanding thet thee = greta responeweness and secourabilty inthe system, These changes in behaver ili tumafect absolute and elatve changes in power ad nuance Some gfoups might seck to undermine the ngụ dacision-

‘making stuctue or sets of rots by ling tar implementation or by using other mfuonoes

to sop ators fom making use ol thoi naw enttarents

Sv Bsn Wa Bak 200 wah ut! er

‘An impertant working principle hind the development ofthe User's Guile was

‘at as experience with PSIA matured, any emerging fst-round impacts of policy

‘efor that could nt be expied by one of the existing channde woul neooddule auding transmission channds) Discussions with PSIA practitioners during the

‘development ofthis Sourssok confirmed tht this wis indesd the case fr impacts sch those listed in bo 2.5 rating formal changesin public sestor governance

tr pote latina Attempt" ets” thee vefora ino eating camels wat considered suboptimal; the channel became so road that its analytic adit was ludermined, and even then the was poor While ot ante analy is pose or some ofthese reforms, impacts of ees, such as numbers 4 and 6 in box 28 lend themehe better o ex post analysis

Based on these types of reform, sch transmision channd is introduced here

Tet eases where asthorgp—porer,sracute, ond process diely changed trough policy reforms, notably through cit seve reform, deentaization, and bother sir institutional zefarms Tes ype of teforms often result in changes in decision makingand inne formulations of rights obligations, incetives and sanc- tions tha, intro, wll inuence the behavior of government actors and citizens In

‘he politcal sphere, for example, instiudioml reform in South Asia has guaranteed

‘one-third f the sexs in lal goverment to women, while governce intatvs in Beatilhave encouraged participation in local budget design and execution tthe

sc sphere, power relations shift when women in Ethiopia ae able to hold men accountable thyough reform of the justice system and when sinoriy groups in Romania achieve rete accesso information about thir gal ight

Civil service reform isa useful example ofthe operation of the sth channel because it dell changes the ruler under which staff operate For example, the

creation of & pmilosiamal il service will help ta separate the personal fom