TEAM PROJECT REPORT AMERICA FIRST POLICY AND ITS IMPACTS ON INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS TREND

Its influence on international relations has even been solidified further when the US President Donald Trump took office with his “America First" vision.. This ambitious vision can be wi

FACULTY OF ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS

Course: International Relations

Professor: Ph.D Hoang Ngoc Thuan

Class: US Accredited Undergraduate program of International Economics and Business

Cohort: 57

GROUP 06 LIST OF MEMBERS

Number Full name Student ID

1 Nguyễn Thị Lan Anh 1810140005

2 Nguyễn Minh Long 1810140037

3 Nguyễn Thị Thanh Mai 1811140090

4 Nguyễn Thị Thu Phương 1810140054

5 Nguyễn Hoàng Thúy 1810140064

6 Nguyễn Thu Trang 1811140101

TABLE OF CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION 1

OVERVIEW OF THE “AMERICA FIRST” 2

1, Visions of Two American Presidents 2

2 About the “America First” 3

HIGHLIGHT ACTIONS OF THE “AMERICA FIRST” 5

1, Trump’s Trade Policy Targets Toward The EU 5

2, US and China Trade War 7

3, US and Middle East Tension 11

PREDICTION AND IMPLICATION 15

CONCLUSION 17

REFERENCES 18

In the current context, the USA still plays a pivotal role in international relations Every

diplomatic action from the USA can affect a group of other nations in one way or another Its influence

on international relations has even been solidified further when the US President Donald

Trump took office with his “America First" vision This ambitious vision can be witnessed

transparently from the complicated relationship with the EU to the all-out trade war with China, both of

which pertain to key players in current international affairs With that being said, Donald

Trump's “America First" vision is anticipated to exert even more profound effects on international

relation trends, both at the present and in the future.

To shed light on this issue, our research group initiates this paperwork with a view to

explaining Trump's “America First" policies and its impacts on the fundamental stakeholders of

this strategic vision On that basis, we are able to highlight the worldwide implications from this vision

and make some predictions about international relation trends so that other countries, including

Vietnam, can take advantage of Due to time and length constraint, we will focus exclusively on three

events directly related to the “America First" vision: (1) its economic

relationship with the EU, (2) its economic relationship with China and (3) its military

relationship with Iran and the Middle East The research scope, therefore, is confined to the

US and related countries in these specific events.

In this research paper, we will briefly go through an overview of the context and policies

related to the “America First" vision and then discuss in detail highlight actions in the above three

events For each event, a summary of the event is provided in order to delineate clearly the impacts and

the responses from different parties After this, the focus will shift to the implications and

trend predictions to finalize our research group's position on Trump's “America First" vision

OVERVIEW OF THE “AMERICA FIRST”

1, Visions of Two American Presidents

1.1, US’s Vision Under Barack Obama’s Presidency

During Obama’s presidency, the US’s main vision for international relations is

all-rounded integration into the world This means that President Obama always strives for a

peaceful and globalized world with each nation having a harmonious relation with one another.

Whenever conflicts or actions against morals and the common goals, he publicly condemns

and actively intervenes in addressing these issues However, the circumstances do not usually

go well to his liking.

With respect to China, the situation was unprecedentedly complex China during Obama’s

terms was an emerging economy with breakneck growth pace with an ambitious goal of becoming

the world’s new superpower From the USA’s stance, it said that it still “welcomes the rise of

China” but still wanted to remain in the supreme power position Therefore, the US tried to

welcome but there was still persistent friction due to their contradictory ultimate goal and

discrepancies in public opinion.

In the Middle East, the situation was also no less intense Although during his terms, Obama

decided to withdraw US troops from Iraq and Afghanistan, successfully organized a military campaign

to kill the leader of the terrorist group al-Qaeda Osama bin Laden However, the relation with Iran was

quite tense due the disputed 2009 Iranian presidential elections and conflicts in nuclear weapons

negotiations although the deal was still eventually signed

For the EU, the US was not so enthusiastic about promoting international relations with

this union compared to before The US still deemed the EU as a major ally but no longer the

main one because President Obama directed his foreign policy more towards Asian nations.

1.2, US’s Vision Under Donald Trump’s Presidency

Since Donald Trump took the office, the US’s foreign policy direction has become

fundamentally different as Trump has adopted a bolder attitude towards international relations For

China, the tension has been ever-increasing in a multitude of aspects, the most contentious being the

current all-out trade war The tension was not only with China but also with the Middle East Trump

has implemented more policies related to military intervention, which has met with polarizing opinions

from other countries in the world and from Middle East countries themselves like the prolonged civil

war in Syria The relation with Iran has also become more stressful, especially on the issue of nuclear

weapons because the US does not accept Iran’s withdrawal from

the nuclear treaty and resumption of nuclear production Furthermore, the transatlantic alliance

with the EU has become increasingly polarized as Trump still considers the EU “as an

afterthought” This chasm is even exacerbated in the event of COVID-19, which

negatively affects travel flows between the two sides.

From the above analysis, it is transparent that the US has made every endeavor in order to gain

the upper hand in every diplomatic relation, which sets the perfect context for Donald Trump’s

“America First” vision.

2. About the “America First”

2.1, Definition

There are many existing definitions for the phrase “America First” However, the

most up to date one commonly implied by Donald Trump is a foreign policy position by the

US that attaches importance to placing the US and American people first and above all.

2.2, Origin

The “America First” vision has had a long history dating back to even the 19th century It

was first used as a slogan in a Republican campaign in the 1880s Only until President Woodrow used it

in World War I in 1915 did it become a national catchphrase with the meaning of maintaining neutrality

in the name of leadership during World War I However, as time passed by,

the phrase “America First” took a totally different meaning which was about isolationism This

meaning was popularized even more by the “America First Committee” - a group of about 800,000

Americans who wanted to keep the US out of World War II.

“America First” has become prevalent again since Donald Trump’s presidency Quoted

directly from Trump during his inaugural speech in January 2017, “From this day forward, a new

vision will govern our land From this moment on, it's going to be America First” The meaning

Trump adopted leans more towards that in World War II: isolationism and nativism, which

perfectly synergizes with his motto during the presidential election campaign: “Make

America Great Again”.

2.3, Vision

The tenor of the catchphrase “America First” can be concisely referred to as

“Make America Great Again” More specifically, Trump’s main objective with this

motto is putting Americans, native-born people first and helping them enjoy a better

all-rounded life quality From a macro perspective, the goal for the US is to stay in the supreme

power position of the world with few to no rivals.

2.4, Some highlight policies of “America First” vision

“America First” is a broad vision consisting of an array of relevant policies from

Donald Trump’s administration.

This can be clearly witnessed in the USA’s limited participation in globalization such as

travel restrictions against some Middle East countries, stringent immigration requirements,

withdrawal from free trade and climate agreements namely TPP, Paris Agreement on climate

change The US has also moved multiple US companies and manufacturers back to the US,

imposed stricter laws on foreign workers and experts so as to provide more job opportunities

for native Americans.

On a broader scale, the Trump administration adopts a more resolute position in

international relations such as with China, with its trading partners and with international

organizations like WTO, WHO The US also actively expands intervention to different parts of

the world in numerous forms, in the form of either a formal speech like the conflict between

China and Vietnam on the South China Sea, or direct actions like military participation in the

Syrian civil war and tax impositions against China.

All taken together, actions from the “America First” vision exist in various forms and span

across all socio-economic domains However, in order to visualize clearly their impacts on

international relation trends, our research group will focus on three specific highlight actions

as discussed in the following sections.

HIGHLIGHT ACTIONS OF THE “AMERICA FIRST”

1, Trump’s Trade Policy Targets Toward The EU

1.1, Reasons

Since becoming the president of the USA in 2017, Donald Trump has adopted exceptionally

assertive trade policy in order to prevent other nations from “taking advantage of” the USA

following his statement “Make American Great Again” His approach undoubtedly unsettled the

global economy, as well as traditional relations, including with allies such as the European Union The

drivers for his actions lie in the belief that the EU was formed in order to take advantage of the USA

Since 2009, there has been an increase in the US overall trade deficit In 2017, the

country’s trade deficit with the EU stood only behind China - which was America’s

largest trade deficit The trade deficit in goods ($152.6 billion) partially offset by the trade

surplus in services ($51.4 billion) The US-EU - the largest bilateral relationship,

consequently, has been experiencing turbulent times since then.

1.2, The US’s actions and the EU’s responses

EU - traditional ally with US, has to endure exceptionally assertive trade policy from the US

On June 1, 2018, the US administration decided to impose tariffs on steel and aluminium from

the EU (at rates of 24 percent and 10 percent respectively) in the concern of national security

to justify violating WTO tariff commitment for such products The action was hoped to benefit

U.S steel and aluminum companies and also the American working for them However, it was

estimated to affect 6.4 billion euro worth of EU goods.

In line with these views, the European Union made decisions on pressing ahead with

countermeasures known as the three-pronged response To begin with, the EU filed a dispute settlement

case of the import restrictions for European steel and aluminium by the United States at the World

Trade Organization The Trump Administration claimed that these products were under investigation

for impairing national security according to Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 (19 U.S.C

§1862, as amended) However, the EU alleged that Section 232 in this situation is inappropriate for the

U.S' obligations and rights presented in the WTO Agreement and Article XVI:4 of the WTO

Agreement in the petition It opined the reason that Washington put these duties in place was not

national security, but to protect domestic industry

Furthermore, it is reported the EU adopted rebalancing measures in response to the U.S under

Article XVIII of the WTO’s General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade In June, 2018, the European

Commission applied additional tariffs on a number of goods imported from the U.S included,

agricultural products like rice, maize, and orange juice, cranberries and dairy products from Wisconsin,

bourbon from Kentucky, jeans, Harley-Davidson motorcycles, US steel products The EU intended to

rebalance bilateral trade with the US basing on the value of its steel and aluminium affected by the US

measures It implemented immediately on selected imports from the U.S valued

at up to €2.8 billion and the remaining worthing €3.6 billion would take place in the three-year

period later “The unilateral and unjustified decision of the US to impose steel and aluminium tariffs

on the EU means that we are left with no other choice [ ] Our response is measured, proportionate and

fully in line with WTO rules Needless to say, if the US removes its tariffs, our

measures will also be removed”, said Cecilia Malmström, European Commissioner for Trade

Last but not least, the EC took safeguard action to protect domestic producers against a surge in

steel and aluminium imported (from… - slide only) Since Washington’s imposition of additional

import tariffs on these products, Europe became a more attractive market for suppliers and the rapid

increase of imports would probably worse the EU economy In reaction to this situation, the provisional

measures imposed tariffs of 25% on 23 steel product categories once imports exceed the average of

imports over the last three years (considered from 2015 to 2018)

The above reactions were to immediately deal with the U.S’ measure on the European steel and

aluminium products and protect its industrial producers and economy in the dispute Furthermore, on

national security grounds, President Trump also threatened to impose up to

25 percent tariffs on imports of automobile and automobile parts The increasing popularity of

German cars on New York roads has been Trump’s complaint since the 1990s In his opinion, the

transatlantic trade in automobiles and automotive parts is unbalanced due to disparate tariff

levels To be more detailed, the EU imposes tariffs of 10 per cent on US- and other

foreign-built cars, while the US levies a 2.5 per cent tariff on cars foreign-built in Europe With the intended

novel tariff levels, there is likelihood that many US-based importers will switch to local

suppliers because of higher import prices, which would benefit American workers.

Even when COVID - 19 pandemic has exerted negative effects on the world economy,

President Donald Trump stands ready to intensify the transatlantic tensions with new punitive

duties worth $3.1bn on European exports, with products like olives, beer, gin, and planes This

marks a fresh twist in Washington and Brussels’ fractious trading relationship.

1.3, Impacts on the relationship between the US and the EU

The US decision to end the “open-trade economy” according to America First policy has

gone against US-EU partnership, harming the interests of both parties and undermining mutual

trust Moreover, the building of the modern global trade system was a project led by the

United States and Europe over several decades following World War II The two countries

also share the largest economic and military powers in the world, dominate global trade and

have great effects on international political relations Hence, the US - EU relationship plays a

fundamental role in guaranteeing the world stability If the two cannot find ways to enhance

the cooperation on trade and economic relations, on defense, and on shared global challenges

including pandemics and climate change, then the prospects for the future world order are dim.

2, US and China Trade War

2.1, “America First” and 4 potential reasons for US - China trade war

China is the world's largest exporter with an annual export volume of USD 2,263.33

million, compared to the US exports of USD 1,546.72 million in second place Increasing

economic power of China during the recent decades alongside with declining share of the

United States in global production and international trade has led to a change in the

geopolitical landscape of the world and emergence of the 2 leading countries.

The vision of its absolute dominance in the global economy in the US has come into conflict with

the growing imbalance in bilateral trade with China, increasing competitiveness of high-tech

companies based in the PRC, and an increase in China’s investments exports At the same time,

when trying to “make America great again” with “America First” vision, D Trump led the US to

a direct violation of international law and multilateral agreements, guided exceedingly only by

national interests We can identify four main causes, or incentives for the trade war between

the US and China.

Firstly, as the US does not consider trading with China "fair", the trade war is supposed

to reduce the deficit of bilateral trade and bring American jobs back home.

Figure 1 US - China Trade Balance (Source: US Census Bureau)

(All values in the graph are in billions of USD)

Secondly, the US - China trade war is supposed to reduce the high-tech capacity of China The

US has been alerted by China's success in implementing a strategic plan for production modernization,

increase in production of robots, lithium batteries, network equipment Another sensitive topic is

Chinese public investment creating unfair competition in global markets

Thirdly, the U.S is taking measures to ensure its competitive advantage in the national

security sector and to prevent China from using American dual-use technologies.

Fourthly, the trade war is aimed at cutting the federal budget deficit According to Dongsheng

Di, Gal Luft, & Dian Zhong, “the US will need additional sources of income like tariffs in order to

balance its budget, and tariffs on Chinese products is viewed as a main source of such income”

2.2, Impacts: Rising US - China tension and waning globalization

2.2.1, Rising US - China Tension: Relationship at the lowest point since 1979

In 1979, U.S President Jimmy Carter granted China full diplomatic recognition, while

acknowledging mainland China's One China principle and severing normal ties with Taiwan Since

then, the US - China relation has experienced positive events such as the U.S.-China Relations Act

of 2000, the title of China as “Responsible Stakeholder” by the Deputy Secretary of State in 2005

However, When President Trump introduced the 2017 National Security Strategy, China was

termed America’s strategic “rival,” even an “adversary”:

Contrary to our hopes, China expanded its power at the expense of the sovereignty of others

Part of China’s military modernization and economic expansion is due to its access to the U.S

innovation economy, including America’s world-class universities.

When it comes to China, Wang Yi, China’s foreign minister, said in a speech “What is

alarming is that the China-US relationship is one of the most important in the world and it is facing

its most serious challenge since diplomatic relations were established.”

Tensions Soar Amid Coronavirus Pandemic By March, the World Health Organization (WHO)

designated the outbreak a pandemic, leading officials in both China and the United States blamed the

other side for the pandemic A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson claims without evidence that the

U.S military brought the virus to China, while President Trump makes repeated

references to the “Chinese virus” On March 18, 2020, the Chinese government announced it will

expel at least thirteen journalists from three U.S newspapers—the New York Times, Wall Street

Journal, and Washington Post—whose press credentials are set to expire in 2020 These moves are

in response to the U.S government’s decision earlier in the year to limit the number of Chinese

journalists from five state-run media outlets in the United States from 160 to 100 Another action

escalating tension is the closed consulates in both U.S and China The United States orders China to

close its consulate in Houston, Texas, alleging that it was a hub of espionage and intellectual property

theft China condemns the order and retaliates by closing the U.S consulate in Chengdu

2.2.2, Challenge to Global Economic Integration

Before the global financial crisis, world investment soared to almost $ 2 trillion A

decade later, global flows of foreign direct investment have fallen by almost 20 percent below

the pre-crisis peak In 2017, world merchandise trade recorded its strongest growth in six

years But due to rising trade tensions and increased economic uncertainty, the WTO warned

that global trade growth is losing momentum and that downside risks have grown in the global

economy Following the financial crisis, there has been a dramatic fall in global finance as

well Meanwhile, global debt has continued to swell but has remained stable relative to world

GDP (at about 169 percent) since 2014.

There is nothing inevitable about global economic integration It may be useful to recall that,

about a decade ago in July 2008, then-WTO Director- General Pascal Lamy declared that there

was “qualified public support for globalization,” and that “globalization will not come to halt.” Only

weeks later, trade depression spread across the world Ten years later, Trump’s tariff wars

began to hurt a trade recovery that had taken a decade to materialize In adverse conditions,

they could even fuel serious global recession in the years to come.