For LSK: Based on the statistical description, it found that for LSK data, the average value of return is 3%, where the highest value is 68.2% and the lowest value is -29% within 52 inve
Trang 1Part A 2
Question 1 2
Question 2 3
Question 3 4
Question 4 5
Question 5 6
Question 6 7
Question 7 9
Question 8 9
Question 9 10
Question 10 10
Part B 11
Trang 2Part A
Question 1
Lisk (LSK) is created in 2016 It is a decentralized network that owns a separate Blockchain system LSK implements a Delegated Proof of Stake (DPOS) algorithm that is very beneficial for holders, when instead of having to mine coins, just holding coins is able to receive coin rewards
Basically, the operating principle of LSK is similar to Ethereum However, unlike other
cryptocurrencies, LSK is not used for smart contracts but focuses on providing a platform for creating apps and functionalities Specifically, organizations can apply the framework provided
by LSK to develop blockchain through sidechains to develop games, financial applications, online stores and so on which simple, flexible and convenient way
Unlike other systems that mainly run on mainchain, applications using LSK's system mainly uses sidechains, thus avoiding test or fake transactions that can fill blocks and slow down mainchain Hence, LSK's sidechain measure allows the processing of large volumes of transactions without speed restriction
LSK is currently developing a combination of two Blockchain models: Single blockchain and Private blockchain to bring the highest security and stability to its platform This is also the only platform that has Dapps (right part application), this allows companies, organizations and
individuals to use LSK sidechains to create heavy and flexible use
Himax Technologies, Inc (HIMX) is a Taiwan semiconductor manufacturing company,
established in 2001 and specializes in integrated circuits The company's main products include display controllers (for TVs, computers, monitors, smartphones, and tablets), touch panel control products, image sensors, optical products, as well as video and display technologies for global clients
Himax is listed on the NASDAQ Stock Exchange They went public in 2006 and grew with the development of the industry, expanding to smartphones, tablets, and touch screens Currently, the company is making 1 of the 10 largest semiconductor suppliers in the world
Trang 3Question 2
According to Wu & Mochizuki (2021), the world is facing the semiconductor shortage crisis due
to problems such as lack of resources and especially COVID-19 Most companies predict that consumer demand will decline due to limited spending due to epidemics, however, the fact that contradicts the predictions of many companies makes semiconductors, especially large
companies like Himax cannot produce enough to meet all their needs The bottlenecks in these chains are all exhausted The epidemic generated such a strong demand that Himax's partner was unable to produce enough display drivers for various electronic products, even though they increased production[ CITATION WuD21 \l 1033 ]
This demonstrates the importance of semiconductor manufacturing for the entire industry of the world Especially when large semiconductor manufacturing companies like Himax are unable to fulfill all customer requirements, it will force the majority of the world's current electronics industry to limit production
Alves (2020) studied the application of proof-of-concept (POC) system provided by LSK framework in building online food ordering system It found that using LSK allows increased processing speed by at least 20%, even during order peaks
In particular, the strength of LSK is to allow increased privacy of customers since all of their information is readable only when the customer provides a specific code Therefore, we can see the feasibility of applying LSK's technology to online transaction systems of many different service industries (Alves, 2021, p 012110 )
Trang 4Question 3
1/
2020
1/22
/202
0 2/12
020 3/
20 3/25 /202 0 4/15
020 5/
20 5/27
020 6/17 /202 0 7/
20 7/29
020 8/19 /202 0 9/
2020 9/30 /202 0
10/2
20
11/1
20
12/2
020
12/2 20
$-
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
Weekly closing price of LSK in 2020 ($)
The line graph shows the change of closing price of LSK in the period from 1/1/2020 to
30/12/2020 In it, it demonstrates the trend that this cryptocurrency has grown over the course of
a year and continues to hold its price higher than its starting point Specifically, LSK has
increased by $ 0.58, equivalent to a 101% growth in 2020
1/
20
1/22
020
2/12
/202
0 3/
20 3/25
020 4/15 /202 0 5/
20 5/27
020 6/17 /202 0 7/
20 7/29 /202 0 8/19 /2 0 9/
20 9/30 /202 0
10/2
2020
11/1
2020
12/2 /2 0
12/2
2020
$-
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
$8.00
$9.00
Weekly closing price of HIMX in 2020 ($)
Similar to LSK, in 2020, the price of HIMX is also on the rise, from $ 3.62 to $ 8.16, or 125.4%
Trang 5Question 4
Based on the histogram, it proves that there is an abnormal distribution, including a lack of data
at 51 - 67% This makes the range of 67% - 83% outlier since it is far away from the rest of the data
Similar to LSK, HIMX in 2020 also has abnormal distribution, in which the range -34% to -25% becomes outliers because the majority of the data is concentrated in the range from -15% to 24%, without the range of -25% to -15%
Trang 6Question 5
In this question, it chooses descriptive statistical method because this method includes the majority of necessary data in the other two methods, so the information about provided data will
be more complete
For LSK:
Based on the statistical description, it found that for LSK data, the average value of return is 3%, where the highest value is 68.2% and the lowest value is -29% within 52 investment weeks This demonstrates that there is left skewed, proving that the rate of return of the LSK is higher than the rate of loss with a standard deviation of 16%
For HIMX:
Trang 7Based on the statistical description, it found that for HIMX data, the average value of return is 2.1%, where the highest value is 23.6% and the lowest value is -34.3% within 52 investment weeks This proves that there is a right skew In which, the standard deviation of all data is 10.5%
Question 6
For LSK:
Loss return (A') Profit return (A) Total
For HIMX:
Loss return (A') Profit return (A) Total
In this section, it hypothesizes that if the probability of loss of LSK and HIMX in each quarter is similar then it shows that there is a dependence of the probability of loss at the time of
investment
Trang 8Probability of Loss (LSK)
Probability of Loss (HIMX)
Based on the difference in the change in the probability of loss quarter by quarter between the two investment options, it supports the hypothesis that there is an independent change in the probability of loss for each quarter
According to Lindström et al., (2020), Efficient Market Hypothesis, that effective financial markets exist when all information available and can affect the price of a security is reflected in the investment option In the majority of studies, it proves that the US market, especially the assets listed on the NASDAQ are on strong forms It means that the market is completely in control of the adjustment of the price of assets and that there are no rules that can interfere Likewise, in this case the value of the investment will depend on the asset itself and not by time Question 7
For the confidence level of 95%, the CI of LSK is:
Trang 9CI =−0.003 ±1.960 164
√52 =−0.003 ± 0 045
For the confidence level of 95%, the CI of HIMX is:
CI =−0.01± 1.960.105
√52 =−0.003± 0 029
Confidence intervals measure the degree of uncertainty or certainty in the method of sampling Confidence intervals can have any probability number, the most common being a 95% or 99% confidence interval A confidence interval is a range of values that is likely to contain an
undefined population parameter Confidence level refers to the percentage of the probability or confidence interval that will contain the actual population parameter when a sample is drawn multiple times Therefore, the most important thing when calculating CI is to make specific assumptions about the desired confidence level based on the researcher's assessment of the certainty of the data they have collected (Lindström, et al., 2020, p.152)
Question 8
Based on the assumption that the investment will be invested longer, so it divides 2020 data into two timelines, consisting of 26 weeks (half year) and 52 weeks (full year) to test the price volatility of two investments
For: Price volatility=std × period
Price volatility (LSK)
Price volatility (26w) 1.4965
Price volatility (full year) 1.2071
Price volatility (HIMX)
Price volatility (26w)
0.781 4 Price volatility (full year)
0.746 4
An interval change is a change based on a change in time while characterizing volatility or risk
in the fluctuation of the value of an asset, represented by the standard deviation of recoveries Specifically, when observed weeks increase, it will decrease the interval width (change standard deviation), thereby reducing price volatility
Trang 10Question 9
According to Pishro-Nik (2014), there are three main factors that influence variation in the confidence interval: sample size, percentage and population size Out of that, if the crisis occurs, the population size and the percentage of level of confidence will remain the same Therefore, the crisis will change the CI primarily through a change of sample size, or specifically the return
of value of HIMX and LSK
The financial market is a connected system If the value of a bond changes significantly, this can affect the rates of currencies, stocks and cryptocurrencies Depending on the type of economic crisis that may occur, the market will react differently (Pishro-Nik, 2014, p.321)
When the economy falls, for example, it is possible that the value of cryptocurrencies increases while the price of stocks falls The common explanation is that investors increasingly see virtual money as a kind of "virtual gold" - "storm shelter" from government intervention, geopolitical risks or oversupply due to the intervention of the bank As a result, they will avoid typical economic crisis situations such as interest rate changes or monetary devaluation
The change in investor sentiment will cause the value of the investment to fluctuate, thereby changing the standard deviation of the investment, ultimately promoting the change of the CI
Question 10
In this study, it hypothesizes that the return of 2020 for HIMX is not the same as 2019, and the same goes for LSK Hence, for HIMX, H = 1% For LSK, H = 3% 0 0
It cannot reject the null hypothesis H0 The z score of 0.777 is within the nonrejection area The
2 critical values (cutoff points) are -1.96 and 1.96 Since 0.777 is between -1.96 and 1.96, therefore, it cannot reject the null hypothesis It rejects the alternative hypothesis because the z score is in range of the null hypothesis
0.02 =−0.212
Trang 11The 2 critical values (cutoff points) are -1.96 and 1.96 with significant level of 95% Since -0.21
is between -1.96 and 1.96, therefore, it cannot reject the null hypothesis It rejects the alternative hypothesis because the z score is in range of the null hypothesis
Part B
Based on the profile analysis combined with the statistical technical evaluation of the price and return of HIMX and LSK in 2020, it concludes that the best option in this case depends on the investor's level of risk tolerance
Specifically, LSK is an option with a lower return rate but with a higher level of safety In 2020, the probability of loss for LSK is 54% while that of HIMX is 56% Specifically, LSK's highest decline in the year was 29% while that of HIMX was 34% Therefore, it shows that LSK has lower loss margin, which in turn helps investors to lower their risk ratio
Specifically, by the end of 2020, the price of HIMX is also on the rise, from $ 3.62 to $ 8.16, equivalent to 125.4% LSK only increased its price by $ 0.58, equivalent to a 101% growth in
2020 Its highest profit for the year is 68%, double the 23.6% from LSK It proved that HIMX has a higher growth rate
In particular, HIMX's investment value is more stable than LSK due to its annual price volatility
in 2020 is 0.75 versus 1.21 from LSK In addition, the fluctuation of the value of investment based on CI of HIMX is 0.029, lower than 0.045 of LSK Therefore, the value of this asset is less fluctuated by the market
Specifically, based on the world's demand, semiconductor products are the main products, affecting production activities of many other economic sectors The semiconductor sector has heated up over the past year, thanks to increased demand for chips across many industries The PHLX Semiconductor Index, which tracks leading stocks in the industry, is up 52% over the past
12 months, compared with the Nasdaq's 24% gain over the same period In which, Himax is a semiconductor manufacturer with the largest capacity in the world Its manufacturing activities involve a wide variety of industries, including automobiles, telephones, mobile devices and all industrial products that use semiconductors, in particular display driver systems Hence, based on this need, it drives the business's revenue and investor confidence, which in turn drives an increase in stock prices
Trang 12Hence, it concluded that HIMX is a less risky long-term investment decision due to its low volatility ratio and a proven higher return rate in 2020 Whereas if an option with a lower loss rate is needed, the LSK is the solution safer However, since cryptocurrencies are not really legalized in many countries, it still poses a risk for long-term investment for this type of asset References
Alves, D., 2021 Proof-of-Concept (POC) of Restaurant’s food requests in the Lisk
Blockchain/sidechain Journal of Physics: Conference Series, 1828(1), pp 012110
Lindström, E., Madsen, H & Nielsen, J., 2020 Statistics for Finance 1st ed s.l.:Routledge Pishro-Nik, H., 2014 Introduction to Probability, Statistics, and Random Processes s.l.:Kappa Research, LLC
Wu, D & Mochizuki, T., 2021 Why Shortages of a $1 Chip Sparked Crisis in Global Economy, viewed May 2021 <https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-05/why-shortages-of-a-1-chip-sparked-crisis-in-the-global-economy>