1. Trang chủ
  2. » Tài Chính - Ngân Hàng

Tài liệu Bond Market Structure in the Presence of Marked Point Processes doc

42 583 0
Tài liệu đã được kiểm tra trùng lặp

Đang tải... (xem toàn văn)

Tài liệu hạn chế xem trước, để xem đầy đủ mời bạn chọn Tải xuống

THÔNG TIN TÀI LIỆU

Thông tin cơ bản

Tiêu đề Bond market structure in the presence of marked point processes
Tác giả Tomas Björk, Yuri Kabanov, Wolfgang Runggaldier
Trường học Stockholm School of Economics
Chuyên ngành Finance
Thể loại Thesis
Năm xuất bản 1996
Thành phố Stockholm
Định dạng
Số trang 42
Dung lượng 248,61 KB

Các công cụ chuyển đổi và chỉnh sửa cho tài liệu này

Nội dung

Key words: bond market, term structure of interest rates, jump-diffusion model, measure-valued portfolio, arbitrage, market ness, martingale operator, hedging operator, affine term stru

Trang 1

Bond Market Structure in the Presence of Marked Point Processes

Tomas Bj¨ ork

Department of FinanceStockholm School of EconomicsBox 6501, S-113 83 Stockholm SWEDEN

Yuri Kabanov

Central Economics and Mathematics Institute

Russian Academy of Sciences

andLaboratoire de Math´ematiquesUniversit´e de Franche-Comt´e

16 Route de Gray, F-25030 Besan¸con Cedex FRANCE

Wolfgang Runggaldier

Dipartimento di Matematica Pura et Applicata

Universit´a di PadovaVia Belzoni 7, 35131 Padova ITALY

February 28, 1996 Submitted to

Mathematical Finance

The financial support and hospitality of the University of Padua, the Isaac

New-ton Institute, Cambridge University, and the Stockholm School of Economics are gratefully acknowledged.

Trang 2

We investigate the term structure of zero coupon bonds wheninterest rates are driven by a general marked point process aswell as by a Wiener process Developing a theory which allows formeasure-valued trading portfolios we study existence and unique-ness of a martingale measure We also study completeness and itsrelation to the uniqueness of a martingale measure For the case

of a finite jump spectrum we give a fairly general completenessresult and for a Wiener–Poisson model we prove the existence of

a time- independent set of basic bonds We also give sufficientconditions for the existence of an affine term structure

Key words: bond market, term structure of interest rates,

jump-diffusion model, measure-valued portfolio, arbitrage, market ness, martingale operator, hedging operator, affine term structure

One of the most challenging mathematical problems arising in the theory

of financial markets concerns market completeness, i.e the possibility ofduplicating a contingent claim by a self-financing portfolio Informally,such a possibility arises whenever there are as many risky assets availablefor hedging as there are independent sources of randomness in the market

In bond markets as well as in stock markets it seems reasonable totake into account the possible occurrence of jumps, considering not onlythe simple Poisson jump models, but also marked point process modelsallowing a continuous jump spectrum However, introducing a continuousjump spectrum also introduces a possibly infinite number of independentsources of randomness and, as a consequence, completeness may be lost

In traditional stock market models there are usually only a finitenumber of basic assets available for hedging, and in order to have com-pleteness one usually assumes that their prices are driven by a finitenumber (equaling the number of basic assets) of Wiener processes Morerealistic jump-diffusion models seem to encounter some skepticism pre-cisely due to the completeness problems mentioned above

There is, however, a fundamental difference between stock and bondmarkets: while in stock markets portfolios are naturally limited to a finitenumber of basic assets, in bond markets there is at least the theoreticalpossibility of having portfolios with an infinite number of assets, namelybonds with a continuum of possible maturities Since all modern contin-uous time models of bond markets assume the existence of bonds with a

Trang 3

continuum of maturities, it seems reasonable to require that a coherenttheory of bond markets should allow for portfolios consisting of uncount-ably many bonds We also see from the discussion above that, in modelswith a continuous jump spectrum, such portfolios are indeed necessary

if completeness is not to be lost

It is worth noticing that also in stock market models one may sider a continuum of derivative securities, such as e.g options parame-terized by maturities and/or strikes

con-The purpose of our paper is to present an approach which, on onehand, allows bond prices to be driven also by marked point processeswhile, on the other hand, admitting portfolios with an infinite number

of securities As such, this approach appears to be new and leads to thetwo mathematical problems of:

• an appropriate modeling of the evolution of bond prices and their

forward rates;

• a correct definition of infinite-dimensional portfolios of bonds and

the corresponding value processes by viewing trading strategies asmeasure-valued processes

A further point of interest in this context is that, in stock marketsand under general assumptions, completeness of the market is equiva-lent to uniqueness of the martingale measure The question now ariseswhether this fact remains true also in bond markets when marked pointprocesses with continuous mark spaces, i.e an infinite number of sources

of randomness, are allowed? One of the main results of this paper is that,

at this level of generality, uniqueness of the martingale measure impliesonly that the set of hedgeable claims is dense in the set of all contin-gent claims This phenomenon is not entirely unexpected and has beenobserved by different authors (see, e.g., definition of quasicompleteness

in [24]); its nature is transparent on the basis of elementary functionalanalysis which we rely upon in Section 4

The main results of the paper are as follows

• We give conditions for the existence of a martingale measure in

terms of conditions on the coefficients for the bond- and forwardrate dynamics In particular we extend the Heath–Jarrow–Morton

“drift condition” to point process models

• We show that the martingale measure is unique if and only if certain

integral operators of the first kind (the “martingale operators”) areinjective

Trang 4

• We show that a contingent claim can be replicated by a self-financing

portfolio if and only if certain integral equations of the first kind(the “hedging equations”) have solutions Furthermore, the integraloperators appearing in these equations (the “hedging operators”)turn out to be adjoint of the martingale operators

• We show that uniqueness of the martingale measure is equivalent to

the denseness of the image space of the hedging operators In ular, it turns out that in the case with a continuous jump spectrum,uniqueness of the martingale measure does not imply completeness

partic-of the bond market Instead, uniqueness partic-of the martingale sure is shown to be equivalent to approximate completeness of themarket

mea-• Under additional conditions on the forward rate dynamics we can

give a rather explicit characterization of the set of hedgeable claims

in terms of certain Laplace transforms

• In particular, we study the model with a finite mark space (for the

jumps) showing that in this case one may hedge an arbitrary claim

by a portfolio consisting of a finite number of bonds, having tially arbitrary but different maturities This considerably extendsand clarifies a previous result by Shirakawa [28]

essen-• We give sufficient conditions for the existence of a so-called affine

term structure (ATS) for the bond prices

The paper has the following structure In Section 2 we lay the dations and we present a “toolbox” of propositions which explain theinterrelations between the dynamics of the forward rates, the bond pricesand the short rate of interest

foun-In Section 3 we define our measure-valued portfolios with their valueprocesses and investigate the existence and uniqueness of a martingalemeasure We also give the martingale dynamics of the various objects,leading among other things to a HJM-type “drift condition”

In a stock market, the current state of a portfolio is a vector of

quantities of securities held at time t which can be identified with a linear

functional; it gives the portfolio value being applied to the current assetprice vector In a bond market, the latter is substituted by a price curvewhich one can consider as a vector in a space of continuous functions Byanalogy, it is natural to identify a current state of a portfolio with a linearfunctional, i.e with an element of the dual space, a signed finite measure

So, our approach is based on a kind of stochastic integral with respect

Trang 5

to the price curve process though we avoid a more technical discussion

of this aspect here (see [4])

In Section 4 we study uniqueness of the martingale measure and itsrelation to the completeness of the bond market Section 5 is devoted to

a more detailed study of two cases when we can characterize the set ofhedgeable claims In 5.1 we consider a class of models with infinite markspace which leads us to Laplace transform theory and in 5.2 we explorethe case of a finite mark space We end by discussing the existence ofaffine term structures in Section 6

For the case of Wiener-driven interest rates there is an enormousnumber of papers For general information about arbitrage free markets

we refer to the book [13] by Duffie Basic papers in the area are Harrison–Kreps [17], Harrison–Pliska [18] For interest rate theory we recommendArtzner–Delbaen [1] and some other important references can be found

in the bibliography; the recent book by Dana and Jeanblanc-Picqu´e [10]contains a comprehensive account of main models

Very little seems to have been written about interest rate modelsdriven by point processes Shirakawa [28], Bj¨ork [3], and Jarrow–Madan[23] all consider an interest rate model of the type to be discussed belowfor the case when the mark space is finite, i.e when the model is driven

by a finite number of counting processes (Jarrow–Madan also considerthe interplay between the stock- and the bond market) In the presentpaper we focus primarily on the case of an infinite mark space, but theinterest rate models above are included as special cases of our model,and our results for the finite case amount to a considerable extension ofthose in[28]

In an interesting preprint, Jarrow–Madan [24] consider a fairly eral model of asset prices driven by semimartingales Their mathemati-cal framework is that of topological vector spaces and, using a concept

gen-of quasicompleteness, they obtain denseness results which are related toours

Babbs and Webber [2] study a model where the short rate is driven by

a finite number of counting processes The counting process intensities aredriven by the short rate itself and by an underlying diffusion-type process.Lindberg–Orszag–Perraudin [25] consider a model where the short rate

is a Cox process with a squared Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process as intensityprocess Using Karhunen–Lo`eve expansions they obtain quasi-analyticformulas for bond prices

Structurally the present paper is based on Bj¨ork [3] where only thefinite case is treated The working paper Bj¨ork–Kabanov–Runggaldier

Trang 6

[5] contains some additional topics not treated here In particular somepricing formulas are given, and the change of num´eraire technique de-veloped by Geman et al in [16] is applied to the bond market In aforthcoming paper [4] we develop the theory further by studying modelsdriven by rather general L´evy processes, and this also entails a study of

stochastic integration with respect to C-valued processes In the present

exposition we want to focus on financial aspects, so we try to avoid, asfar as possible, details and generalizations (even straightforward ones)

if they lead to mathematical sophistications For the present paper themain reference concerning point processes and Girsanov transformationsare Br´emaud [7] and Elliott [15] For the more complicated paper [4], theexcellent (but much more advanced) exposition by Jacod and Shiryaev[22] is the imperative reference

Throughout the paper we use the Heath–Jarrow–Morton

parameter-ization, i.e forward rates and bond prices are parameterized by time of

maturity T In certain applications it is more convenient to parameterize

forward rates by instead using the time to maturity, as is done in

Brace-Musiela [6] This can easily be accomplished, since there exists a simpleset of translation formulae between the two ways of parametrization

drt

We consider a financial market model “living” on a stochastic basis

(fil-tered probability space) (Ω, F, F, P ) where F = {F t } t≥0 The basis is

assumed to carry a Wiener process W as well as a marked point process µ(dt, dx) on a measurable Lusin mark space (E, E) with compensator ν(dt, dx) We assume that ν([0, t] × E) < ∞ P -a.s for all finite t, i.e µ

is a multivariate point process in the terminology of [22]

The main assets to be considered on the market are zero coupon

bonds with different maturities We denote the price at time t of a bond maturing at time T (a “T -bond”) by p(t, T ).

Assumption 2.1 We assume that

1 There exists a (frictionless) market for T -bonds for every T > 0.

2 For every fixed T , the process {p(t, T ); 0 ≤ t ≤ T } is an optional stochastic process with p(t, t) = 1 for all t.

Trang 7

3 For every fixed t, p(t, T ) is P -a.s continuously differentiable in the

T -variable This partial derivative is often denoted by

p T (t, T ) = ∂p(t, T )

∂T .

We now define the various interest rates

Definition 2.2 The instantaneous forward rate at T , contracted at t,

Trang 8

In the above formulas the coefficients are assumed to meet dard conditions required to guarantee that the various processes are welldefined.

stan-We shall now study the formal relations which must hold betweenbond prices and interest rates These relations hold regardless of the

measure under consideration, and in particular we do not assume that

markets are free of arbitrage We shall, however, need a number of nical assumptions which we collect below in an “operational” manner

tech-Assumption 2.3

1 For each fixed ω, t and, (in appropriate cases) x, all the objects m(t, T ), v(t, T ), n(t, x, T ), α(t, T ), σ(t, T ), and δ(t, x, T ) are as- sumed to be continuously differentiable in the T -variable This partial T -derivative sometimes is denoted by m T (t, T ) etc.

2 All processes are assumed to be regular enough to allow us to entiate under the integral sign as well as to interchange the order

interchange of integration with respect to dW and dt see Protter [26] and

also Heath–Jarrow–Morton [19] for a financial application

δ(t, x, T ) = −n T (t, x, T ) · [1 + n(t, x, T )] −1

(4)

Trang 9

2 If f (t, T ) satisfies (3) then the short rate satisfies

t σ(t, s)ds, D(t, x, T ) = −RT

t δ(t, x, s)ds.

(6)

Proof The first part of the Proposition follows immediately if we apply

the Itˆo formula to the process log p(t, T ), write this in integrated form and differentiate with respect to T

For the second part we integrate the forward rate dynamics to get

Trang 10

Changing the order of integration and identifying terms gives us theresult.

For the third part we adapt a technique from Heath–Jarrow–Morton[19] Using the definition of the forward rates we may write

Trang 11

and an application of the Itˆo formula to the process p(t, T ) = exp {Z(t, T )}

completes the proof

Remark 2.5 To fit reality, a “good” model of bond price dynamics or

in-terest rates must satisfy other important conditions A bond price process

“should” e.g take values in the interval [0, 1] and forward rates “ought”

to be positive (see [27]) We do not restrict ourselves to the class of alistic models” (obviously the most important ones) since we also want

“re-to treat generalizations of “bad” models (like the various Gaussian els for the short rate) which are useful because their simplicity leads toinstructive explicit formulas

3.1 Generalities

The purpose of this section is to give the appropriate definitions of financing measure-valued portfolios, contingent claims, arbitrage possi-bilities and martingale measures We then proceed to show that the ex-istence of a martingale measure implies absence of arbitrage, and weend the section by investigating existence and uniqueness of martingalemeasures

self-We make the following standing assumption for the rest of the tion

sec-Assumption 3.1 We assume that

(i) There exists an asset (usually referred to as locally risk-free) with the

Trang 12

(ii) The filtration F = ( F t ) is the natural filtration generated by W and

µ, i.e.

F t = σ {W s , µ([0, s] × A), B; 0 ≤ s ≤ t, A ∈ E, B ∈ N } where N is the collections of P -null sets from F.

(iii) The point process µ has an intensity λ, i.e the P -compensator ν

has the form

ν(dt, dx) = λ(t, dx)dt where λ(t, A) is a predictable process for all A ∈ E.

(iv) The stochastic basis has the predictable representation property: any

local martingale M is of the form

probability measure P These assumptions are made largely for

conve-nience, but if we omit them, some of the equivalences proved below will

be weakened to one-side implications See [4] for further information Theassumption (iii) is not really needed at all from a logical point of view,but it makes some of the formulas below much easier to read

3.2 Self-financing portfolios

Definition 3.2 A portfolio in the bond market is a pair {g t , h t (dT ) }, where

1 The component g is a predictable process.

2 For each ω, t, the set function h t (ω, ·) is a signed finite Borel sure on [t, ∞).

mea-3 For each Borel set A the process h t (A) is predictable.

Trang 13

The intuitive interpretation of the above definition is that g t is the

number of units of the risk-free asset held in the portfolio at time t The object h t (dT ) is interpreted as the “number” of bonds, with maturities

in the interval [T, T + dT ], held at time t.

We will now give the definition of an admissible portfolio

Definition 3.3

1 The discounted bond prices Z(t, T ) are defined by

Z(t, T ) = p(t, T )

B(t) .

2 A portfolio {g, h} is said to be feasible if the following conditions

hold for every t: Z t

t ≥ −a P − a.s for all t.

6 A feasible portfolio is said to be self-financing if the corresponding

value process satisfies

Trang 14

There are obvious modifications of these definitions like “admissible

condi-We shall as usual be working much with discounted prices, and thefollowing lemma shows that the self-financing condition is the same for

the discounted bond prices Z(t, T ) as for the undiscounted ones.

Lemma 3.4 For an admissible portfolio the following conditions are

Proof The Itˆo formula

Notice that for a self-financing portfolio the g-component is matically defined by the initial endowment V0 and the h-component; the pair (V0, h) is sometimes called the investment strategy of a self-financing

auto-portfolio

For technical purposes it is sometimes convenient to extend the

de-finition of the bond price process p(t, T ) (as well as other processes) from the interval [0, T ] to the whole half-line It is then natural to put Z(t, T ) = 1, A(t, T ) = 0 etc for t ≥ T , i.e one can think that after the

time of maturity the money is transferred to the bank account

Remark 3.5 From the point of view of economics, discounting means

that the locally risk-free asset is chosen as the “num´eraire”, i.e theprices of all other assets are evaluated in the units of this selected one.Some mathematical properties may however change under a change ofthe num´eraire, see [11]

Trang 15

We now go on to define contingent claims and arbitrage portfolios,modifying somewhat the standard concepts.

Definition 3.6

1 A contingent T -claim is a random variable X ∈ L0

+(F T , P ) (i.e an arbitrary non-negative F T -measurable random variable).

We shall use the notation L0++(F T , P ) for the set of elements X of

L0+(F T , P ) with P (X > 0) > 0.

2 An arbitrage portfolio is an admissible self-financing portfolio

{g, h} such that the corresponding value process has the properties

(a) V0 = 0,

(b) V T ∈ L0

++(F T , P ).

If no arbitrage portfolios exist for any T ∈ R+ we say that the

model is “free of arbitrage” or “arbitrage-free” (AF).

We now want to tie absence of arbitrage to the existence of a gale measures Since we do not fix a (finite deterministic) time horizon,

martin-it turns out to be convenient to consider a martingale densmartin-ity process as

a basic object (rather than a martingale measure).

Definition 3.7 Take the measure P as given We say that a positive

martingale L = (L t)t≥0 with E P [L t ] = 1 is a martingale density if for

every T > 0 the process {Z(t, T )L t; 0≤ t ≤ T } is a P -local martingale.

If, moreover, L t > 0 for all t ∈ R+ we say that L is a strict martingale

density.

Definition 3.8 We say that a probability Q on (Ω, F) is a martingale

measure if Q t ∼ P t (where Q t = Q |F t , P t = P |F t ) and the process {Z(t, T ); 0 ≤ t ≤ T } is a Q-local martingale for every T > 0

In other words, Q is a martingale measure if it is locally equivalent

to P and the density process dQ t /dP t is a strict martingale density

Proposition 3.9 Suppose that there exists a strict martingale density

L Then the model is arbitrage-free.

Trang 16

Proof. Fix any admissible self-financing portfolio {g, h} and assume that for some finite T the corresponding value process is such that V T ∈

L0++(F T , P ) By admissibility, V Z ≥ −a for some a > 0 The process (V Z +a)L is a positive local martingale hence a supermartingale As L is a martingale, V Z L is a supermartingale Thus, E P h

Remark 3.10 Notice that for the model restricted to some finite time

horizon T , a strict martingale density defines an equivalent

martin-gale measure Q T = L T P , i.e a probability which is equivalent to P on

F T (in symbols: Q T

T ∼ P T) such that all discounted bond prices are

mar-tingales on [0, T ] If E P [L ∞] = 1, there exists an equivalent martingalemeasure also for the infinite horizon and the above proposition can be

easily extended to this case in an obvious way In general, when L is not uniformly integrable, a measure Q on F such that L t = dQ t /dP t, maynot exist The following simple example when a martingale density does

not define Q explains the situation.

Let the stochastic basis be the coordinate space of counting functions

N = (N t) equipped with the measure of the unit rate Poisson process Let

us modify this space by excluding only one point: the function which is

identically zero It is clear that the process L t = I {N t =0} e tis a martingale

density defining Q T for every finite T (under Q T the coordinate process

has the intensity zero on I [T,∞] ) but the measure Q such that Q |F T =

Q T |F T for all T does not exist.

This example reveals that the origin of such an undesirable propertylies in a certain pathology of the stochastic basis while Proposition 3.9shows that one can work with a strict martingale density without anyreference to the martingale measure Facing the choice between an in-significant supplementary requirement and a perspective to be far awayfrom the traditional language we prefer the first option So we impose

Assumption 3.11 For any positive martingale L = (L t ) with E P [L t] =

1 there exists a probability measure Q on F such that L t = dQ t /dP t

Remark 3.12 In numerous papers devoted to the term structure of

in-terest rates one can observe a rather confusing terminology : the model

is said to be arbitrage-free if there exists a martingale measure The gin of this striking difference with the theory of stock markets (wherearbitrage means the possibility to get a profit which in some sense isriskless) is clear, because in continuous-time bond market models there

Trang 17

ori-are uncountably many basic securities and the key question is : what ori-areportfolios of bonds ? The discussion of the latter problem is avoided sincethe straightforward use of finite-dimensional stochastic integrals does notallow to define a general portfolio in a correct way (see the apparent diffi-culties with the basic bonds in [28]) Interesting mathematical problemsconcerning relations between different definitions of arbitrage are almostuntouched in the theory of bond markets; this subject is beyond the scope

of the present paper as well

3.3 Existence of martingale measures

Suppose that the bond prices and forward rates have P -dynamics given

by the equations (2) and (3) We now ask how various coefficients in theseequations must be related in order to ensure the existence of a martin-gale measure (or, in view of the Assumption 3.11, of a strict martingaledensity) The main technical tool is, as usual, a suitable version of theGirsanov theorem, which we now recall The first (direct) part (I) belowholds true regardless of how large the filtration is chosen to be, but theconverse part (II) depends heavily on the fact that we have assumed thepredictable representation property

Trang 18

Then there exists a probability measure Q on F locally equivalent to P with

such that:

(i) We have

dW t= Γt dt + d ˜ W t , (22)

where ˜ W is a Q-Wiener process.

(ii) The point process µ has a Q-intensity, given by

mar-dP dt-a.e.

Theorem 3.14

I Let the bond price dynamics be given by (2) Assume that n(t, x, T ) for

any fixed T is bounded by a constant (depending on T ) Then there exists

a martingale measure Q if and only if the following conditions hold:

(i) There exists a predictable process Γ and a ˜ P-measurable function Φ(t, x) with Φ > 0 satisfying the integrability conditions of Theorem 3.13 and such that E P [L t ] = 1 for all finite t, where L is defined

II Let the forward rate dynamics be given by (3) Assume that e D(t,x,T )

for any fixed T is bounded by a constant (depending on T ) Then there exists a martingale measure if and only if the following conditions hold:

Trang 19

(iii) There exist a predictable process Γ and a ˜ P-measurable function Φ(t, x) with Φ > 0 satisfying the integrability conditions of Theorem 3.13 and such that E P [L t ] = 1 for all finite t where L is defined by (19).

(iv) For all T > 0, on [0, T ] we have

Proof.

I First of all it is easy to see (using the Itˆo formula) that a measure Q

is a martingale measure if and only if the bond dynamics under Q are of

the form

dp(t, T ) = r t p(t, T )dt + dM t Q , (26)

where M Q is a Q-local martingale Using the Girsanov theorem we see that under any equivalent measure Q, the bond dynamics have the fol- lowing form, where we have compensated µ under Q.

Comparing this with the equation (26) gives the result

II If the forward rate dynamics are given by (3) then the corresponding

bond price dynamics are given by Proposition 2.4 We can then applypart 1 of the present theorem

We now turn to the issue of so called “martingale modelling”, and mark that one of the main morals of the martingale approach to arbitrage-free pricing of derivative securities can be formulated as follows

Trang 20

re-• The dynamics of prices and interest rates under the objective ability measure P are, to a high degree, irrelevant The important objects to study are the dynamics of prices and interest rates under the martingale measure Q.

prob-When building a model it is thus natural, and in most cases tremely time saving, to specify all objects directly under a martingale

ex-measure Q This will of course impose restrictions on the various

para-meters in, e.g., the forward rate equations, and the main results are asfollows

Proposition 3.15 Assume that we specify the forward rate dynamics

under a martingale measure Q by

Here λ Q is the Q-intensity of µ whereas D and S are defined by (6).

Proof Since we are working under Q we may use Theorem 3.14 with

(28) The result on bond prices now follows immediately from the resultabove and from Proposition 2.4

The single most important formula in this section is the relation (28)which is the point process extension of the Heath–Jarrow–Morton “drift

Trang 21

condition” We see that if we want to model the forward rates directly

under the martingale measure Q, then the drift α is uniquely determined

by the diffusion volatility σ, the jump volatility δ and by the Q-intensity

λ Q This has important implications when it comes to parameter

estima-tion, since we are modelling under Q while our concrete observations, of course, are made under an objective measure P As far as volatilities are

concerned they do not change under an equivalent measure

transforma-tion, so “in principle” we can determine σ and δ from actual observations

of the forward rate trajectories The intensity measure however presents

a totally different problem Suppose for simplicity that µ is a standard Poisson process (under Q) with Q-intensity λ Q If we could observe the

forward rates under Q then we would, of course, have access to a vast

ma-chinery of statistical estimation theory for the determination of a point

estimate of λ Q , but the problem here is that we are not making tions under Q, but under P Thus the estimation of the Q-intensity λ Q

observa-is not a statobserva-istical estimation problem to be solved with standard

sta-tistical techniques This fact may be regarded as a piece of bad news or

as an interesting problem We opt for the latter interpretation, and one

obvious way out is to estimate λ Q by using market data for bond prices

(which contain implicit information concerning λ Q)

complete-ness

4.1 Uniqueness of the martingale measure

Throughout this section we shall work with a model specified by theforward rate dynamics under

Assumption 4.1 The coefficient D(t, x, T ) is uniformly bounded.

The main issue to be dealt with below is the relation between ness of the martingale measure and completeness of the bond market.Using Theorem 3.14 we immediately have the following result

unique-Proposition 4.2 Let the forward rate dynamics be given by (3) and

as-sume that the assumptions (iii) and (iv) of Theorem 3.14 (equivalent to existence of a martingale measure Q) are satisfied Then the martingale measure Q is unique if and only if dP dt-a.e.

KerK t (ω) = 0 (30)

Ngày đăng: 16/02/2014, 02:20

Nguồn tham khảo

Tài liệu tham khảo Loại Chi tiết
[1] Artzner, P. &amp; Delbaen, F. (1989) Term structure of interest rates.Advances in Applied Mathematics 10, 95-129 Sách, tạp chí
Tiêu đề: Advances in Applied Mathematics
[3] Bj¨ ork, T. (1995) On the term structure of discontinuous interest rates. Surveys in Industrial and Applied Mathematics 2 No.4, 626- 657 Sách, tạp chí
Tiêu đề: Surveys in Industrial and Applied Mathematics
[6] Brace, A. &amp; Musiela M. (1994) A multifactor Gauss Markov imple- mentation of Heath, Jarrow, and Morton. Mathematical Finance 4, 3, 259-283 Sách, tạp chí
Tiêu đề: Mathematical Finance
[7] Br´ emaud, P. (1981) Point Processes and Queues: Martingale Dy- namics. Springer-Verlag, Berlin Sách, tạp chí
Tiêu đề: Point Processes and Queues: Martingale Dy-namics
[8] Brown, R.H. &amp; Schaefer, S.M. (1994) Interest rate volatility and the shape of the term structure. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. A 347, 563-576 Sách, tạp chí
Tiêu đề: Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. A
[9] Cox, J. &amp; Ingersoll, J. &amp; Ross, S. (1985) A theory of the term struc- ture of interest rates. Econometrica 53, 385-408 Sách, tạp chí
Tiêu đề: Econometrica
[10] Dana, R.-A. &amp; Jeanblanc-Picqu´ e M. (1994) March´ es Financiers en Temps Continu. Valorisation et Equilibre. Economica, Paris Sách, tạp chí
Tiêu đề: March´es Financiers enTemps Continu. Valorisation et Equilibre
[11] Delbaen, F. &amp; Schachermayer, W. (1994) A general version of the fundamental theorem on asset pricing. Mathematishe Annalen 300, 463-520 Sách, tạp chí
Tiêu đề: Mathematishe Annalen
[12] Dellacherie, C &amp; Meyer, P-A. (1972) Probabilit´ es et Potentiel. Her- mann, Paris Sách, tạp chí
Tiêu đề: Probabilit´es et Potentiel
[13] Duffie, D. (1992) Dynamic Asset Pricing Theory. Princeton Univ.Press Sách, tạp chí
Tiêu đề: Dynamic Asset Pricing Theory
[15] Elliott, R.J. (1982) Stochastic Calculus and Applications. Springer- Verlag, Berlin Sách, tạp chí
Tiêu đề: Stochastic Calculus and Applications
[16] Geman, H. &amp; El Karoui, N &amp; Rochet, J-C. (1995) Changes of num´ eraire, changes of probability measure and option pricing. Jour- nal of Applied Probability 32, 443-458 Sách, tạp chí
Tiêu đề: Jour-nal of Applied Probability
[17] Harrison, J.M. &amp; Kreps, D. (1979) Martingales and arbitrage in multiperiod securities markets. Journal of Economic Theory 20, 381- 408 Sách, tạp chí
Tiêu đề: Journal of Economic Theory
[18] Harrison, J.M. &amp; Pliska, S. (1981) Martingales and stochastic in- tegrals in the theory of continuous trading. Stochastic Processes &amp;Appl. 11, 215-260 Sách, tạp chí
Tiêu đề: Stochastic Processes &"Appl
[19] Heath, D. &amp; Jarrow, R. &amp; Morton, A. (1992) Bond pricing and the term structure of interest rates. Econometrica 60 No.1, 77-106 Sách, tạp chí
Tiêu đề: Econometrica
[20] Ho, T. &amp; Lee, S. (1986) Term structure movements and pricing in- terest rate contingent claims. Journal of Finance 41, 1011-1029 Sách, tạp chí
Tiêu đề: Journal of Finance
[21] Hull, J &amp; White, A. (1990) Pricing interest-rate-derivative securities.The Review of Financial Studies 3, 573-592 Sách, tạp chí
Tiêu đề: The Review of Financial Studies
[22] Jacod, J. &amp; Shiryaev A.N. (1987) Limit Theorems for Stochastic Processes. Springer-Verlag, Berlin Sách, tạp chí
Tiêu đề: Limit Theorems for StochasticProcesses
[23] Jarrow, R. &amp; Madan D. (1995) Option pricing using the term struc- ture of interest rates to hedge systematic discontinuities in asset returns. Mathematical Finance 5, 311-336 Sách, tạp chí
Tiêu đề: Mathematical Finance
[26] Protter, P. (1990) Stochastic integration and Differential Equations.Springer-Verlag, Berlin Sách, tạp chí
Tiêu đề: Stochastic integration and Differential Equations

TỪ KHÓA LIÊN QUAN

TRÍCH ĐOẠN

TÀI LIỆU CÙNG NGƯỜI DÙNG

TÀI LIỆU LIÊN QUAN

🧩 Sản phẩm bạn có thể quan tâm

w