An Approach for Prioritising Climate Change Mitigation Measures: A Case Study in Ho Chi Minh City45246

An Approach for Prioritising Climate Change Mitigation Measures: A Case Study in Ho Chi Minh City Doan Quang Tri 1,* , Pham Thanh Long 2 , Vuong Xuan Hoa 3 , Ngo Thanh Tam 1 1 Vietnam

An Approach for Prioritising Climate Change

Mitigation Measures: A Case Study in Ho Chi Minh City

Doan Quang Tri (1),(*) , Pham Thanh Long (2) , Vuong Xuan Hoa (3) , Ngo Thanh Tam (1)

(1) Vietnam Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vietnam Meteorological and Hydrological Administration, Hanoi, Vietnam

(2) Sub-Institute of Hydrometeorology and Climate Change, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

(3) Institute of Hydrometeorology and Climate Change, Hanoi, Vietnam

* Correspondence: doanquangtrikttv@gmail.com

Abstract: Prioritizing climate change mitigation measures could help to identify most feasible or most

nationally appropriated mitigation actions This process can also provide important inputs for the development of national climate change strategies or policies The paper applies Delphi method to prioritize criteria for potential climate change mitigation technology in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam The consultation process has been done with 10 experts in only two cycle to reach Kendall (W) value over 0.5 Then, 21 selected criteria have been used for Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) in prioritizing mitigation options in energy, industrial processes, road transport, residential, commercial, aviation and waste sectors in Ho Chi Minh City Mitigation options with highest scores will be proposed in Ho Chi Minh City’ Action Plan to implement Paris Agreement on Climate Change

Keywords: Climate change mitigation; Delphi method; MRV; Ho Chi Minh City

1 Introduction

Climate change brings new perspectives to important global challenges relevant to food security and rural livelihoods Incorporating climate change issues into the development is a necessary step of overall development policy, but it is not sufficient In other words, sustainable development policies must also be reformulated to include important temporal and spatial scales that have become relevant to climate change Actions

to limit damage from climate change need to be implemented now to be effective Mitigation actions involve the direct reduction of anthropogenic emissions or enhancement of carbon sinks that are necessary for limiting long-term climate damage Adaptation is necessary to limit potential risks of the unavoidable residual climate change now and in the future More importantly, there are significant differences like adaptation and mitigation actions In September 2015, the Socialist Republic of Vietnam submitted to the Secretariat of the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC), encompassing national GHG emission reduction target for the period

of 2020-2030, as part of the global effort to reach an agreement on post-2020 climate regime

In this context, Ho Chi Minh City is conducting GHG emission inventory and developing Action Plan for the Implementation of Paris Agreement under the support of Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment and Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA)

To develop the plan to implement the Paris Agreement, it is necessary to assess the climate change mitigation actions which are appropriate to the circumstances, development priorities and resources in Ho Chi Minh City Previously, studies on evaluation and

prioritization of mitigation activities in Vietnam used to use reference indicators from international reports and were based on subjective assessments of experts Therefore, this paper will research by applying Delphi method and MCDA to establish and select criteria for prioritizing mitigation options in Ho Chi Minh City The application of the Delphi method will include a three-phase analysis process which will be used before, during and after consultation The consultation process is carried out in two stages In the first stage, a series of open-ended questions on important issues of mitigation options were developed and sent to the experts to find out the criteria that could prioritize nationally appropriate mitigation actions Because this study has been prevalent in the world, the study will obtain the results of the previous studies and summarize general evaluation criteria Besides, resulting evaluation criteria which are specific and appropriate to the national conditions will be consulted by experts on climate change mitigation After reviewing the evaluation criteria, the questionnaire on the importance and suitability of the criteria will be sent to the experts for evaluation until the consensus index is reached (Kendall (W) ≥ 0.5) (Musa et al., 2015) Apart from the main goal is climate change mitigation, the climate change mitigation actions should ensure the sustainability of the environment, economy, and social development The set of evaluation criteria, therefore, needs to fully work towards these goals Currently, there are no official documents that specify a globally accepted standard for selecting the actions that are appropriate to national conditions (NAMAs) to receive international assistance Based on the theoretical basis together with results and experience

of international scientific research experiences (Massa et al., 2008; Posada, 2009; Asahi Glass, 2013; Malaysia Gas Association, 2014; EX Research Institute, 2012; Pham et al., 2019) as well

as the uniqueness, importance and independence to ensure the outcome are legitimate The research team has collected, synthesized and drawn out the criteria that play a significant role in identifying and developing climate change mitigation actions by following the national conditions (NAMA) which are approved and implemented by different developing countries members of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

The objective of assessing climate change mitigation measures is to identify activities that reduce greenhouse gas emissions yet still in line with national conditions These activities will be meaningful to contribute to reducing greenhouse gas emissions while ensuring economic efficiency, improving the environment, social security and sustainable development of nations

2 Methodology

2.1 Study area

Ho Chi Minh City is a city with the biggest economy and population size, the city itself has a large amount of GHG emissions but it also contributes significantly to GHG emissions reduction nationwide (Figure 1) However, the management of GHG emissions

in the city has been ineffective so far, the officials' understanding ofHG is still limited to some extent From 2015 to 2017, Ho Chi Minh City has actively participated in supporting planning and action implementations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in line with national conditions (SPI-NAMA Project) which is launched by the Ministry of Natural

Resources and Environment and the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) The project has achieved prominent results such as guidance on GHG emissions inventory and measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) of GHG emission reduction As for GHG emission reduction activities, by the end of 2018, the industry and trade of Ho Chi Minh City have primarily focused on dealing with emission reduction in the energy sector These activities have contributed greatly to the reduction of GHG emissions from industrial activities in the city and the country as a whole Recent GHG inventory results from Ho Chi Minh City indicate that the main sources of emissions include: (i) Road transport; (ii) Industrial production and construction; (iii) Residential buildings; (iv) Commercial buildings, public administration buildings and infrastructure; (v) Aviation; (vi) Solid waste dumped into landfills; and (vii) Domestic wastewater Therefore, mitigation activities of Ho Chi Minh City will focus on these main causes

Figure 5 The location of study area in Vietnam

2.1 Assessing mitigation actions

The assessment of climate change mitigation measures will provide important input for developing a national climate change strategy in developing countries like Vietnam This assessment can also contribute to capacity building and awareness-raising in developing countries on environmentally sustainable technologies, and increase resilience and reduce vulnerability to the effects of climate change The assessment also creates a chance to

understand the advantages, disadvantages, and barriers when deploying these technologies The assessment will provide an overview of solutions or technologies which are suitable for a region or a country, from which facilitating programs or initiatives support

of International assistance on climate change mitigation When doing the assessment, the selelcted technologies must be appropriate to the conditions and development strategies of the countries Factors consistent with national development priorities will ensure that transferred technology and national resources will be used efficiently Therefore, the description of national development needs and priorities is necessary before moving on to the technology assessment These priorities will also be shaped by the long-term social and economic trends in Vietnam, such as increased industrialization and urbanization because these priorities will have an impact on final technology options

An important principle when developing climate change mitigation policies is to predict or forecast changes in future climate conditions From this, it is possible to determine the impact of climate change on energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions To assess mitigation techniques, information on climate change scenarios should be collected and analyzed before conducting a technology assessment This is one of the fundamental factors for prioritizing climate change mitigation technologies by following national conditions The priority evaluation process of climate change mitigation technologies in the study follows the multi-criteria analysis approach described by Dodgson et al (2009) and the Guidelines for Prioritizing Mitigation Technology of UNEP DTU Partnership (MoNRE, 2011; URC, 2011; Wrickramasinghe, 2011; URC, 2012a, 2012b) The relevant steps are shown

in Figure 2 Typically, in the report on the assessment of climate change mitigation technology in Vietnam, the identification of evaluation criteria is based on the guidance documents of international However, the criteria in the guidance are relatively common and general To assess the technology of climate change mitigation that is appropriate for Vietnam, specific criteria need to be developed for the context in Vietnam Therefore, the study has applied the Delphi method to formulate evaluation criteria to prioritize climate change mitigation technology for Vietnam

(1) Analyze the national context

(2) Determine technological solutions

(3) Determine evaluation criterias

(4) Consult and score

(6) Calculate the score for solutions

(7) Analyze the results of priority technologies

Figure 6 Logical framework for prioritizing climate change mitigation technologies

(1) National context analysis

An analysis of the national context is aimed at identifying national development goals and priorities, such as socio-economic, energy, and development goals and plans, as well as response to climate change Also, this analysis also reviews and analyze development plans of different economic sectors Besides, information concerning scenarios

on climate change, sea-level rise and the impacts of climate change on industries have also been synthesized to provide the foundation for choosing suitable mitigation technology on

a national scale

(2) Identify technology solutions to climate change mitigation

The identification of technology solutions for climate change mitigation can be referred to reports of greenhouse gas reduction scenarios in the world or in the country where the assessment is conducted If these reports are not available, consult sources such

as Climate Techkiwi and the guidebook published by UNEP DTU including transport sector, construction and agriculture (in terms of mitigation) and coastal areas, water and agriculture (in terms of adaptation); or IPCC evaluation reports (AR3, AR4, AR5) should be taken into consideration Countries that have developed mitigation scenarios can be referred

to reports such as the National Communication on Climate Change and Nationally Determined Contribution The assessment of mitigation technology solutions mentioned above will help policymakers have a foundation to build a roadmap to implement commitments on reducing greenhouse gas emissions Moreover, this also provides the private sector with information about potential, relevant and feasible solutions in that country

(3) Determining evaluation criteria

To identify the criteria, the study has applied the Delphi method Accordingly, the criteria will be developed through the consultancy of experts in the field of GHG mitigation until a consensus is reached Through the consultation, the main issues or factors that affect the selected technology have been clarified Besides, the experts have also proposed criteria that satisfy national development priorities These criteria can be organized into sub-criteria

in different levels to display the link between development priorities

(4) Consulting and marking Criteria

The technology will be implemented based on selected criteria Firstly, a performance matrix is developed, in which the rating scale can vary for each criterion For example, capital costs can be listed directly in monetary units, reducing greenhouse gas emissions in tons of CO2, and qualitative criteria can be assessed on the Likert scale (or similar scale) The data of quantitative criteria will be standardized into a mark for each type

of technology Meanwhile, qualitative criteria will be assessed on a scale of 1-5 with increasing importance The information for evaluation and scoring of the criteria is compiled from national research reports on reducing greenhouse gas emissions and consultations from experts in this field

(5) Weight evaluation

The chosen criteria to evaluate the priority of each technology may not be equally important to reach the common goal Therefore, the given weights to each criterion will reflect their relative importance in the choice of technology options For example, whether the cost factor is more important than greenhouse gas emissions reduction when choosing technology in the energy sector? If it is, then how much the cost will be? This step aims to assign quantitative values to the relative importance of the criteria There are many different ways to assign weights, such as using consultations or statistics However, within the scope

of the study, the weights of the criteria are determined by standardizing the results of expert consultations in the “Determining evaluation criteria” step

(6) Marking technology solutions

All the information and views collected in the above steps are merged, and several technologies are selected for more detailed analysis Marking these technology solutions can

be done using the Multi-Criteria Analysis Model (MCDA) provided by UDP The technology options are then sorted according to their total score, and two or three technologies with the best score will be selected for further analysis by SWOT method to further clarify the difficulties and advantages as implementation

2.2 Develop criteria for evaluating priority options

2.2.1 The Delphi method

The Delphi method is an interactive multi-stage forecasting method relying on experts to identify technical developments and trends Its objective is to structure complex group opinions (Rauch, 1979) and to develop consensus on future developments among a set of experts participating in the panel (Linstone and Turoff, 2002) The method was developed by the RAND Corporation to generate scenarios for long-range strategic

planning in the 1950-1960s (Gordon and Helmer-Hirschberg, 1964) and became a widely accepted approach (Kameoka et al., 2004)

There are two ways to apply the method: it will be implemented radiationally or implemented for 4 stages (Linstone and Turoff, 2002) The method has been applied in many fields ranging from economy, environment, sustainable development, land use, agriculture, transportation, nursing, tourism to climate change Bunting (2008) used the Delphi method

to facilitate interactive participation and reach a consensus on sustainable aquaculture development (Bunting, 2008) For the transport sector, a combination of the Delphi method and the Bayesian Network Model is used to predict highway accidents in developing countries (Mbakweet al., 2016) Delbari et al (2016) used the 2-stage Delphi method together with the hierarchical analysis model (AHP) to identify and prioritize important indicators for aviation services The future of the 3D printing industry is also developed by using the Delphi method 18 forecasts have been developed to provide future scenarios for the 3D printing industry (Jiang et al., 2017) Le et al (2015) uses the Delphi method in combination with the DPSIR (Divers- Pressures-States-Impacts-Response) (EU, 1999; Martins et al., 2012; Elliott, 2014; Gari et al., 2015; Smith et al., 2016) to evaluate climate change response local communities in coastal areas (Figure 3) Questions were asked to assess the level of consensus among members of the consultative group The Kendall value is then calculated after the consensus reached 0.681, the high level of consensus among the members The study indicates that sustainable ecosystem development and new rural planning are considered appropriate local adaptation measures in the study area Nguyen et al (2018) and the research team use the Delphi method to develop a set of sustainable development indicators focusing on environmental and health fields, applied to Quang Tri province

Driving Forces

Basic sectoral trends, e.g in energy generation, transport, industry, agriculture, tourism

Pressure

Human activities

directly affecting the

environment, e.g

carbon dioxide or

methane emissions

Response

… of society to solve the problem, e.g

research on solar energy, energy taxes

State

Observable changes

of the environment, e.g rising global temperatures

Impact

Effects of a changed environment, e.g

decrease in agricultural production, huricanes, floods

Figure 7 Driving forces-Pressure-State-Impact-Response modified from original EU framework

(EU, 1999)

a) Steps before consultation:

Step 1 Selection of expert groups related to the Delphi method

The number of experts selected to participate in the consultation as to using the Delphi method is 10 people in the field of climate change mitigation from the Department

of Climate Change - Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change, Energy Institute, Energy and Environment Consultancy Joint Stock Company, Institute of Agricultural Environment, Ministry of Transport, Ministry of Construction, Ministry of Industry and Trade and so on

Step 2 Summary of evaluation criteria for prioritizing climate change mitigation technology worldwide according to the technical guidelines of UNEP DTU, IPCC, UNDP; guidelines on assessing and selecting solutions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in line with national conditions (NAMAs); and consultation of experts on some specific conditions

in Vietnam

The indicators include 04 groups

(1) Climate indicators (reducing GHG emissions): The main objective of these indicators is to reduce GHG emissions in each sector The criteria to consider are:

+ GPT1: GHG emissions intensity (GHG emissions per product unit)

+ GPT2: Potential to reduce GHG emissions

(2) Benefit indicators (environmental index, social index, economic index):

+ Objective 1 (for the environment): Reduce air pollution

+ Objective 2 (for the environment): Reduce soil pollution

+ Objective 3 (for the environment): Reduce water pollution

+ Objective 4 (for the environment): sustainable natural resource management + Objective 1 (for the society): more job opportunities

+ Objective 2 (for the society): improve the quality of life and the health of workers + Objective 3(for the society): raise public awareness of environmental protection + Objective 1 (for the economy): Contribute to a green and sustainable economic transformation

+ Objective 2 (for the economy): Scale of investment capital

+ Objective 3 (for the economy): Effective investment

+ Objective 4 (for the economy): Payback period

+ Objective 5 (for the economy): Infrastructure development

(3) Indicators of the national/local context:

+ PT1: have been able to be implemented in the country/locality

+ PT2: Consistent with national/local development policies

+ PT3: policies and support mechanisms

(4) Measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV) indicators:

+ MRV1: A system of GHG emissions monitoring and sustainable development can

be established

+ MRV2: Basic calculations can be developed to quantify GHG emissions reductions and sustainable development

+ MRV3: reports on the progress of GHG emissions reduction and sustainable development

+ MRV4: ensure the accuracy and quality of the information reported

Step 3 Develop criteria table and evaluation criteria matrix according to the Delphi method

b) Consultation:

Step 4 Applying the Delphi method at round 1 Working with experts to consult and thereby assess the level of agreement with the construction index The criteria will be ranked from low to high with increasing importance Table 1 shows an example of a matrix that evaluates the importance and appropriateness of criteria

Table 7 Matrix of criteria evaluation according to Delphi method

Criterial 1 Criterial 2 Criterial 3 Criterial 4 Criterial 5 Criterial 6 …

…

Step 5 Data analysis at round 1

After collecting data using the Delphi Method, Kendal coefficient can be used to assess the suitability of the indicator The level of consensus is scored according to the thresholds of 0.0-0.1; 0.1-0.3; 0.3-0.5; 0.5-0.7; 0.7-1.0 which are equivalent to a very weak level

of consensus; weak; medium; strong; very strong The Kendall index is calculated as follows:

When there are two values x and y whose value corresponds to a set of values of the other sign in the form of statistical distribution, the Kendall coefficient can be used to assess the correlation and consensus Therefore, experts are the independent variable x and the variable y is rated according to increasing importance

The Kendall coefficient (W) is calculated by the following formula





2

2 3

S W

1

k (N N) 12