Our Dec-09 price target is US$2.0 down recently from Dec-08 price target of US$2.8, which is at a discount to our DCF valuation and current net cash per share due to market concerns abou
Trang 1Table 201: NTES Annual Income Statement
$ in millions
INCOME STATEMENT
2007 2008E 2009E 2010E
Sales & Mktg expenses -29.3 -31.1 -45.6 -50.8
G&A expenses -18.9 -23.5 -31.8 -35.3
R&D expenses -19.7 -27.3 -37.1 -41.2
Share-based compensation -12.7 -11.7 -14.0 -14.0
Net Interest Income 15.0 19.9 25.4 34.5
After Tax EPS (US$) 1.36 1.61 2.26 2.46
Margins (%)
Operating Margin (excl 123R option expense) 58.8 63.1 60.9 59.5
Net Margin excl 123R option expense 61.4 48.4 55.8 55.6
Sequential Growth (%)
Net Profit (excl 123R exp) 9.4 16.3 40.9 10.7
After Tax EPS excl 123R option expense 15.7 18.8 38.5 8.3
Source: Company reports and J.P Morgan estimates
Trang 2Table 202: NTES Quarterly Income Statement
$ in millions
1Q'07 2Q'07 3Q'07 4Q'07 1Q'08 2Q'08 3Q'08 4Q'08E 1Q'09E 2Q'09E 3Q'09E 4Q'09E
Wireless & other 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.7 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.1 Advertising 6.7 7.9 10.4 12.3 10.1 13.9 15.2 16.4 15.0 16.3 17.6 18.5 Online Games 60.3 60.4 60.5 67.2 79.2 86.6 99.3 102.7 106.2 111.3 115.0 117.8
COGS -13.0 -12.4 -13.6 -14.4 -15.6 -18.5 -23.7 -20.6 -20.9 -22.4 -24.3 -25.0
Operating Expense -15.6 -19.3 -24.4 -21.4 -18.6 -22.3 -24.8 -27.9 -30.8 -31.6 -32.7 -33.5
Sales & Mktg expenses -5.1 -5.9 -10.6 -7.8 -5.1 -7.4 -8.9 -9.8 -11.2 -11.1 -11.5 -11.8 G&A expenses -3.5 -5.1 -5.3 -5.0 -5.1 -5.3 -6.4 -6.7 -7.4 -7.8 -8.1 -8.4 R&D expenses -4.4 -4.7 -5.1 -5.6 -5.7 -6.6 -7.2 -7.9 -8.7 -9.1 -9.5 -9.8 Other expenses 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Share-based compensation -2.6 -3.6 -3.5 -3.0 -2.7 -3.0 -2.4 -3.5 -3.5 -3.5 -3.5 -3.5
Tax Expense/(Credit) 4.4 0.3 2.7 -7.2 16.4 15.1 18.5 12.3 12.2 12.9 13.3 13.7
Pre Tax EPS (US$) 0.34 0.33 0.31 0.38 0.45 0.52 0.51 0.64 0.63 0.66 0.68 0.70 After Tax EPS (US$) 0.31 0.33 0.28 0.44 0.32 0.39 0.36 0.54 0.53 0.56 0.58 0.59
Margins (%)
Operating Margin (excl 123R option expense) 62.4 60.1 52.8 59.9 65.7 63.3 60.6 63.1 61.2 61.4 60.6 60.5
Trang 3Table 203: NTES Annual Balance Sheet
$ in millions
Account Receivables 22.1 23.8 27.5 31.0
Total Other Current Assets 14.7 18.6 21.7 24.1
Gross Fixed Assets 61.5 90.1 126.0 165.2
Accumulated Depreciation (37.1) (60.4) (84.2) (112.0)
Other Long Term Assets 8.8 15.8 16.0 16.0
Long Term Investments and Associates - - - -
ST Debt and Current Portion of LT Debt 85.2 - - -
Other Current Liabilities 51.1 80.4 92.9 104.8
Retained Earnings 428.4 684.4 973.5 1,286.9
Source: Company reports and J.P Morgan estimates
Trang 4Table 204: NTES Annual Cash Flow Statement
$ in millions
Add Non cash Expenses/(income) - - - -
Depreciation and Amortization 13.2 15.2 23.2 27.8
Other Non-Cash Items 12.7 11.7 14.0 14.0
(Increase)/Decrease Receivables (4.6) 0.5 (3.4) (3.5)
(Increase)/Decrease Other Current Assets (6.8) (2.4) (2.9) (2.4)
Increase/(Decrease) Payables (0.8) 5.3 9.2 10.4
Increase/(Decrease) Other Current Liabilities (4.7) 24.4 11.6 11.9
Purchase of Property, Plant & Equipment (7.8) (18.2) (35.0) (39.2)
Purchase/Sale of Other LT assets (6.1) (6.2) - -
Issuance/Repayment of Debt (18.4) (93.5) - -
Change in Common Equity - net (65.1) 89.0 42.5 44.6
Net Effect of Exchange Rate Changes/Others - - - -
Source: Company reports and J.P Morgan estimates
Trang 5Ninetowns, Neutral, ($0.83)
We remain Neutral on Ninetowns as the company’s core B2G (business-to-government) segment and its new B2B (business-to-business) segment continue to face a tough business environment due to the continuing slowdown in the global trade sector Our Dec-09 price target is US$2.0 (down recently from Dec-08 price target of US$2.8), which is at a discount to our DCF valuation and current net cash per share due to market concerns about potentially higher losses going forward, which are likely to keep the stock price under pressure
• Ninetowns’ e-filings software sales have faced a tough business environment over the last couple of years due to a free alternative distributed by the government In recent months, the ongoing export slowdown and quality issues in some of China’s sectors (e.g., food and toys) have further adversely impacted Ninetowns’ SME client base for both B2G and B2B offerings
• Ninetowns has also continued to see operating losses as it works on developing its new B2B segment While Ninetowns has responded to the tougher business environment by expanding its pay-per-transaction model for enterprise software
to several regions (to continue to gain new trade enterprises and retain existing clients) and taking cost cutting measures such as workforce reduction (from 400 employees to a current headcount of 300), we expect earnings to stay under pressure in the foreseeable future due to muted B2G revenues and early stage of B2B monetization
• Potential 2009 drivers: In our view, the following factors could drive shares in
2009: (1) return to profitability (upside risk) or larger operating losses (downside risk), and (2) if Ninetowns were to become a potential acquisition or partnership prospect (due to customer list of over 130k exporters and importers, and cheap valuation)
Our current and newly introduced 2010 estimates are in the table below:
Table 205: Ninetowns Financial Snapshot
$ in millions, except per share data
J.P Morgan
Revenue 7.0 14.4 12.5 13.9 4% -13% 12%
EBITDA -2.4 -6.6 -0.2 1.5 NM NM NM
GAAP EPS -0.11 -0.23 -0.09 -0.04 NM NM NM
Adj EPS -0.11 -0.22 -0.08 -0.03 NM NM NM
Consensus
Source: J.P Morgan estimates *Note: Adj EPS excludes share-based compensation expense
Trang 6Our Estimates and Outlook for 2009
We forecast net revenue of US$12.5MM, down 13% Y/Y, and a GAAP loss of US$0.09 per share (vs GAAP loss of US$0.23 per share for 2008), or adjusted (ex-share-based expense) loss of US$0.08 per share (vs loss of US$0.22 per share for 2008) We forecast enterprise software revenue of US$9.0MM (72% of total revenue), down 19% Y/Y, software development service revenue of US$3.1MM (25% of total revenue), up 4% Y/Y, and B2B revenue of US$0.4MM (3% of total revenue), up 6% Y/Y
With respect to margins, we forecast gross margin at 75.1% for 2009, up from 72.4% for 2008 (due to expected lower gross loss in B2B segment) We expect adjusted operating margin (ex-share-based expense) of -34.9% (operating loss) for 2009, narrowing from -74.4% for 2008, and adjusted net margin (ex-share-based expense)
of -22.1% (loss) for 2009, narrowing from -52.9% for 2008
Our Estimates and Outlook for 2010
For 2010, we forecast net revenue of US$13.9MM, up 12% Y/Y, and GAAP loss of US$0.04 per share, or adjusted loss of US$0.03 per share We forecast 2010 enterprise software revenue of US$9.7MM (69% of total revenue), up 7% Y/Y, software development service revenue of US$3.8MM (27% of total revenue), up 22% Y/Y, and B2B revenue of US$0.5MM (4% of total revenue), up 40% Y/Y
On margins, we forecast gross margin at 76.5% (up slightly Y/Y), adjusted operating margin of -18.5% (narrowing Y/Y), and adjusted net margin of -8.3% (narrowing Y/Y)
Price Target, Valuation and Rating Analysis
We remain Neutral on Ninetowns The stock is trading at over 50% discount to FY08E net cash of US$2.66/share We believe such a significant discount to net cash
is unjustified; however, we remain Neutral due to the very low business visibility for the company and likelihood of continued operating losses We recently revised down our price target to US$2.0 (Dec-09) from the prior US$2.8 (Dec-08) due to the weaker-than-expected results in 1H08 We set our price target at a discount to our DCF valuation of US$2.2 (also discount to current net cash per share of US$2.6) due
to continued market concerns about potentially higher losses going forward, which are likely to keep the stock price under pressure
Risks to Our Rating and Price Target
Trang 7Table 206: NINE Annual Income Statement
$ in millions
INCOME STATEMENT
2007 2008E 2009E 2010E
Sales & mktg expenses -5.5 -5.6 -3.7 -3.5
G&A expenses -11.5 -11.5 -7.8 -8.0
Share-based compensation -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3
Pre-tax EPS (US$) -0.90 -0.25 -0.09 -0.04
After-tax EPS (US$) -0.88 -0.23 -0.09 -0.04
Margins (%)
Adj Net margin (ex-123R exp.) -33.9 -52.9 -22.1 -8.3
Sequential growth (%)
Net profit (ex-123R exp.) n.m n.m n.m n.m
Adj Diluted EPS (ex-123R exp.) n.m n.m n.m n.m
Source: Company reports and J.P Morgan estimates
Trang 8Table 207: NINE Annual Balance Sheet
$ in millions
Total other current assets 2.5 2.1 1.8 2.0
Gross fixed assets 27.8 33.6 36.3 39.2
Accumulated depreciation (2.5) (5.6) (8.2) (11.0)
Other long term assets 30.9 31.8 31.8 31.8
Long term investments and associates - - - -
ST debt and current portion of LT debt
Other current liabilities 4.3 3.8 3.6 4.1
Other long term liabilities 2.9 2.3 2.3 2.3
Source: Company reports and J.P Morgan estimates
Trang 9Table 208: NINE Annual Cash Flow Statement
$ in millions
Add non cash expenses/(income) - - - -
Depreciation and amortization 3.3 4.2 4.1 4.1
(Increase)/decrease receivables (1.7) 1.0 0.3 (0.6)
(Increase)/decrease inventories (0.0) 0.5 0.0 (0.1)
(Increase)/decrease other current assets 1.6 0.6 0.3 (0.2)
Increase/(decrease) payables (2.3) (3.0) (2.3) 0.0
Increase/(decrease) other current liabilities 1.2 (0.9) (0.3) 0.5
Cash flow from investing
Purchase of property, plant & equipment (27.9) (2.6) (2.8) (2.9)
Purchase/sale of other LT assets - 0.1 (1.5) (1.3)
Purchase/sale of investments 35.5 - - -
Issuance/repayment of debt
Change in other LT liabilities - (0.9) - -
Change in common equity - net 0.2 (0.3) - 1.3
Other financing charges, net - 2.3 (0.0) 0.0
Net effect of exchange rate changes (0.6) - - -
Net change in term deposits (36.0) - - -
Total cash balance at beginning of period 114.2 91.9 92.9 88.0
Source: Company reports and J.P Morgan estimates
Trang 10Shanda, Overweight, ($30.75)
We maintain our Overweight rating on Shanda, the largest item-based (free-to-play) online game operator in China and our top pick in the online games sector Our price target for Shanda is US$35, which implies 14.5x FY08E and 13.0x FY09E diluted GAAP EPS, or 13.9x FY08E and 12.5x FY09E adjusted diluted EPS
• We expect Shanda's large diversified game portfolio of 23 MMORPGs and 16 casual games (in operations and in pipeline) will continue to deliver consistently solid revenue growth going forward We also believe Shanda’s large active account base (paying and non-paying combined) of ~70 million could be further monetized through cross-selling of new games and sequels (e.g., Legend of Mir2), and in-game advertising Furthermore, Shanda has demonstrated that it aas the leading on-ground sales team in China to acquire new users – a significant advantage during the current macro slowdown
• We expect Shanda to emerge stronger in the online game industry post the current financial crisis With a strong cash position and the largest online game revenue base in China, we believe: (1) Shanda is seeing better employee retention, (2) cash-strapped game start-up teams are more willing to sell to or join Shanda, and (3) Shanda has the financial strength to license additional games at more competitive costs
• We also maintain our view that: (1) Shanda’s strong marketing capability and operating platform will enable it to further monetize its aging, but very well known, games Mir2 and Woool, (2) Shanda’s “sequels” strategy of existing games (such as Mir2 WaiZhuag) will deliver stable longer-term growth, (3) Shanda continues to expand its game pipeline and diversify game-specific risks, and (4) Shanda has the most extensive free-to-play model experience among peers, which should continue to benefit the company
• 2009 drivers: In our view, the following factors will drive shares in 2009: (1)
Shanda consistently delivering good results, (2) new games attracting greater than expected user traction, and (3) share buyback of up to US$200MM over the next few quarters (Shanda ended 3Q08 with cash of US$458MM, short-term
investments of US$129MM and convertible debt of US$175MM)
Our current and newly introduced 2010 estimates are in the table below:
Table 209: Shanda Financial Snapshot
$ in millions, except per share data
J.P Morgan